基于农户行为的土地利用人工社会模型的构造与应用

为探讨人工社会在土地利用变化研究领域中的应用,研究创建了一个模拟土地利用变化过程的人工社会模型(LUC-ASM)。该模型以农户和农民为两类主体(agents),模拟分析不同社会经济条件和政策影响下,两类主体对自己承包土地利用方式的微观决策所可能产生的宏观效应及其时空变化特征。以鄱阳湖区一个现实村落为主要研究对象,以农户从事各类生产活动的行为特征为准则,利用LUC-ASM模型模拟未来30年内该村落土地利用变化过程。结果表明,未来这一地区土地利用的变化与人口增长结构调整方式、国家土地利用与环保政策、社会经济发展态势等因素密切相关;在城市化的影响下,该地区的农业劳动力将会出现短缺,农村土地有可能被撂荒,需要及早采用政策措施予以避免。总体而言,LUC-ASM模型能够形象地反映土地利用变化过程的微观驱动机理及各种社会经济与环境因素影响的宏观效应,有助于深化我们对人与自然环境相互作用的认识。     

北京市道路空气中NO_x现状监测及控制对策

通过对北京城市3种典型交通道路空气中NOx的时空变化监测发现,城市道路空气NOx中NO分担率主要集中在31.6%～81.1%,明显高于非交通道路中NO的分担率(3.0%～34.0%).其原因是NO主要来源于机动车尾气的排放.利用MOBILE软件计算了各类机动车排放的ρ(NOx),并相应地确定了影响交通道路中ρ(NOx)的敏感因素.据此提出了北京市交通道路空气中NOx若干控制措施,如控制车速、车型、油料等.     

Effects of land use change and water reuse options on urban water cycle

The aim of this article was to study the effects of land use change and water reuse options on an urban water cycle. A water cycle analysis was performed on the Goonja drainage basin, located in metropolitan Seoul, using the Aquacycle model. The chronological e ects of urbanization were first assessed for the land uses of the Goonja drainage basin from 1975 to 2005, where the ratio of impervious areas ranged from 43% to 84%. Progressive urbanization was identified as leading to a decrease in evapotranspiration (29%), an increase in surface runo (41%) and a decrease in groundwater recharge (74%), indicating a serious distortion of the water cycle. From a subsequent analysis of the water reuse options, such as rainwater use and wastewater reuse, it is concluded that wastewater reuse seemed to have an advantage over rainwater use for providing a consistent water supply throughout the year for a country like Korea, where the rainy season is concentrated during the summer monsoon.     

Modelling sulphate-enhanced cadmium uptake by Zea mays from nutrient solution under conditions of constant free Cd2+ ion activity

A controlled hydroponic experiment was undertaken to investigate Cd uptake in relation to the activity of Cd species in solution other than the free ion (Cd²⁺) by maintaining a constant Cd²⁺ activity under variable SO₄₂⁻ and Cl⁻ concentrations exposed to maize (Zea mays var. Cameron) plants. The objectives of these experiments were: (1) to distinguish and quantify the different uptake rates of free and inorganic-complexed Cd from nutrient solution, and (2) to model the uptake of Cd by maize with a Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) in a system which facilitates the close examination of root characteristics. Results of the current experiments suggest that, in addition to the free ion, CdSO₄⁰ complexes are important factors in determining Cd uptake in nutrient solution by maize plants. Higher nominal SO₄²⁻ concentrations in solution generally resulted in a greater Cd accumulation by maize plants than predicted by the Cd²⁺ activity. A better integration of the complete dataset for the 3 harvest times (6, 9 and 11 days after treatment) was achieved by including consideration of both the duration of Cd exposure and especially the root surface area to express Cd uptake. Similarly, the fit of the BLM was also improved when taking into account exposure time and expressing uptake in terms of root morphological parameters.     

Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important regions for food production in China, with its agricultural system being significantly affected by the undergoing climate change and vulnerable with water stress. In this study, the Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model is used to evaluate crop yield, water consumption (ET), and water use efficiency (WUE) of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)–summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system in the NCP from 1951 to 2006. Their responses to future climate scenarios of 21st century projected by the GCM (HadCM3) with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenario (IPCC SRES) A2 and B1 emissions are investigated. The results show a rapid enhancement of crop yield in the past 56 years, accompanying with slight increment of ET and noticeable improvement of WUE. There exist spatial patterns of crop yield stemmed mainly from soil quality and irrigation facilities. For climate change impacts, it is found that winter wheat yield will significantly increase with the maximum increment in A2 occurring in 2070s with a value of 19%, whereas the maximum in B1 being 13% in 2060s. Its ET is slightly intensified, which is less than 6%, under both A2 and B1 scenarios, giving rise to the improvement of WUE by 10% and 7% under A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Comparatively, summer maize yield will gently decline by 15% for A2 and 12% for B1 scenario, respectively. Its ET is obviously increasing since 2050s with over 10% relative change, leading to a lower WUE with more than 25% relative change under both scenarios in 2090s. Therefore, possible adaptation countermeasures should be developed to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for the sustainable development of agro-ecosystems in the NCP.     

BPA与3种双酚类化合物的联合作用雌激素效应

环境内分泌干扰物的联合作用已经是目前研究的重点.采用重组基因酵母检测法,分别测定了双酚A (BPA)、双酚AF(BPAF)、双酚AP(BPAP)、双酚F(BPF)4种双酚化合物的雌激素活性,并依据其测定结果,按照等效浓度比,设计了浓度比分别为EC₁₀和EC₅₀的6种二元混合物并测定了其雌激素活性.结果表明,这4种化合物的剂量-效应关系都可以用Weibull函数有效描述,BPA、BPAF、BPAP、BPF的EC₅₀值分别为：6.81×10^-6、7.44×10^-7、1.43×10^-5、7.52×10^-6 mol·L^-1,其雌激素活性大小顺序为：BPAF>BPA>BPF>BPAP.依据不同的联合作用判断方法对这4种化合物的联合效应进行判断,结果表明,相同化合物的不同混合比例可能对联合作用方式产生影响,采用DA和IA预测模型可以更加直观、方便地判断联合作用的类型,而且可以反映出不同混合比例对联合作用的影响.     

废物水泥窑共处置产品中重金属释放量研究

通过模拟煅烧实验制取水泥熟料,并采用国标GB/T 17671-1999制取混凝土样品.选用EA NEN7371和EA NEN7375浸出方法,利用基于菲克扩散第二定律的一维扩散模型对废物水泥窑共处置产品（混凝土）中重金属长期累积释放量进行了研究.结果表明,混凝土中重金属的最大释放量低于总量;各种重金属在混凝土中的扩散系数不同,且Cr>As>Ni>Cd; Cr、As、Ni和Cd 30a的累积释放量分别为4.43、 0.46、 1.50和0.02 mg/kg,释放率（累积释放量/最大释放量）分别为27.0%、 18.0%、 3.0%和0.2%;扩散系数是影响重金属累积释放量的重要因素,且两者表现出较好的相关性;Cr和As的扩散系数较大（分别为1.15E-15 m²/s和6.42E-16 m²/s）,应重点控制其进入水泥窑处置过程的总量.     

不同水分管理方式下水稻生长季N_2O排放量估算:模型验证和输入参数检验

利用2005～2007年我国稻田N2O排放通量的田间原位测定资料和国际上其它地区稻田N2O报道结果,对作者建立的不同水分管理方式下水稻生长季N2O排放估算模型进行了验证.结果表明,持续淹水稻田N2O排放的拟合结果与其他地区淹水稻田N2O通量值相一致.淹水-烤田-淹水的水分管理方式下,稻田N2O排放的拟合值接近于国际上同类研究结果.淹水-烤田-淹水-湿润灌溉的水分管理方式下,稻田N2O排放的估算模型对田间原位测定资料有很好的适切性.为了检验模型输入参数的可信度,将本研究建立的有关我国水稻生产的相关资料数据库与以往研究报道结果进行了比较,结果表明,两者具有高度的一致性.数据库资料表明,在20世纪50～70年代间,持续淹水稻田占20%～25%,大约75%～80%的稻田采用淹水-烤田-淹水的水分管理方式.在20世纪80～90年代间,采用持续淹水,淹水-烤田-淹水和淹水-烤田-淹水-湿润灌溉水分管理方式的稻田分别约占12%～16%、77%和7%～12%.20世纪50年代水稻生长季平均每季总施氮量为87.49 kg·hm-2,而90年代平均为224.64 kg·hm-2.其中,化学氮肥的施用量从20世纪50年代的37.4 kg·hm-2增加到了90年代的198.8 kg·hm-2,分别占水稻生长季氮输入总量的43%和88%.在20世纪50～70年代间有机氮的输入量相对比较稳定,平均变幅在45.2～48.2 kg·hm-2之间,随后逐步降低,有机肥料氮占氮输入总量的比例从20世纪50年代的52%降低到了90年代的9%.作物残体N输入量从20世纪50年代的4.9 kg·hm-2增加到了80年代的6.3 kg·hm-2.20世纪50～70年代水稻生长季氮肥施用量具明显的空间变异性,而80～90年代间其空间变异较小.模型验证和输入参数检验的结果表明,该模型能较好地模拟我国不同水分管理方式下的稻田N2O直接排放量.     

土壤优先流的理论研究和试验分析

在活动流场模型的基础上建立了新的溶质运移控制方程,研究了流场分形特征参数的计算方法;采用4组染色示踪试验资料,分析了活动流场模型模拟土壤水流运动和溶质运移宏观非均匀特征的适用性.模拟分析表明,活动流场模型能较准确地捕捉到土壤中的优先流特别是不稳定流的宏观运动特征;土壤存在大孔隙结构的情况下,水流和溶质将更快的迁移到深层土壤,活动流场模型模拟计算的入渗深度偏小,但大于连续性模型的模拟计算结果;当土壤中的大孔隙结构较少时,活动流场模型模拟预测的土壤含水率分布和溶质浓度分布与实测结果比较一致.     

基于DPSIR模型的生态港口指标体系研究

生态港口指标体系的建立是生态港口从理论研究阶段进入可操作的实际应用阶段的重要步骤,建立生态港口指标体系的实质就是确定生态港口的具体建设内容和考核标准体系.在生态港口内涵的分析基础上,提出了建立生态港口指标体系的基本框架、原则和方法,并根据"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"模型框架,以天津生态港口建设为背景,建立了天津生态港口建设与评价指标体系.