The Characterisation of Settled Dust by Scanning Electron Microscopy and Energy Dispersive X-ray Analysis

Settled dust has been collected inside the main foyers ofthree University buildings in Wolverhampton City Centre,U.K. Two of the three buildings are located in a streetcanyon used almost exclusively by heavy duty dieselvehicles. The dust was collected on adhesive carbonspectro-tabs to be in a form suitable for analysis byscanning electron microscope and energy dispersive X-rayanalysis. Using these analytical techniques, individualparticle analysis was undertaken for morphology andchemistry. Seasonal variations and variations due tolocation were observed in both the morphologicalmeasurements and chemical analysis. Many of the differencesappear attributable to the influence of road traffic, inparticular, the heavy duty diesel vehicles, travellingalong the street canyon.     

我国排污权交易的法律保障

排污权交易是总量控制目标下最具潜力的环境管理手段，兼具环境质量 保障和成本效率的特点，这一交易的标的是排污权。文章分析了我国实行排污权交易的必要性，并提出实行排污权交易必须提供的法律保障。     

Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Emissions trading in the European Union (EU), covering the least uncertain emission sources of greenhouse gas emission inventories (CO₂ from combustion and selected industrial processes in large installations), began in 2005. During the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), the emissions trading between Parties to the Protocol will cover all greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) and sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and selected land-use activities) included in the Protocol. In this paper, we estimate the uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes based on uncertainties in corresponding inventories. According to the results, uncertainty in emissions from the EU15 and the EU25 included in the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (2005–2007) is ±3% (at 95% confidence interval relative to the mean value). If the trading were extended to CH₄ and N₂O, in addition to CO₂, but no new emissions sectors were included, the tradable amount of emissions would increase by only 2% and the uncertainty in the emissions would range from −4 to +8%. Finally, uncertainty in emissions included in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol was estimated to vary from −6 to +21%. Inclusion of removals from forest-related activities under the Kyoto Protocol did not notably affect uncertainty, as the volume of these removals is estimated to be small.     

The Impact of Uncertainty on Banking Behavior: Evidence from the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program

In this paper, we study empirically whether uncertainty has an influence on trade in the US sulfur dioxide allowances market. In particular, we investigate the role of uncertainty on banking behavior. To do this, we introduce a tractable, structural model of trading permits under uncertainty. The model establishes a relation between banking behavior and risk preferences, especially prudence in the Kimball (1990) sense. We then test this model using data on allowances, for utilities submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Acid Rain Program, carried over from one year to the next. Evidence is found of imprudence, namely, utilities bank permits in order to favor higher profits. Another finding is that larger utilities do not adopt behavior significantly different from that of smaller ones. This paper was presented at the “International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance & Trading” in Warsaw, Poland, September 2004, under the title “Portfolio Management of Emissions Permits and Prudence Behavior.”     

Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets

There is an international divide between net emissions importers and net emissions exporters, with industrialised nations mainly falling into the former and emerging economies the latter. Integrating emissions transfers into climate policy, so as not to disadvantage export-intensive countries, has been suggested to increase participation in international emissions reduction commitments. Consumption-based scenarios are presented for the UK identifying the geographic and sectorial source of emissions to meet future consumer demands given the current international climate policy landscape. The analysis is applied to the UK yet the discussion is applicable to international climate policy; assigning national responsibility for global emissions reductions; and extending the mitigation potential for net importing countries. Two trajectories for UK consumption emissions are calculated in which (1) international reduction targets are consistent with those pledged today equating to four degrees of temperature rise and (2) international reduction targets achieve a two degree future. By 2050 it is estimated that UK consumption emissions are 40–260% greater than UK territorial emissions depending on the strength of global reduction measures, and assuming the UK meets its 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050 target. Cumulative emissions are presented alongside emissions trajectories, recognising that temperature rise is directly related to every tonne of carbon emitted. Whilst this paper argues that the current UK emissions targets underestimate the UK's contribution to global mitigation for two degrees, it shows how expanding the focus of policy towards consumption introduces new opportunities for reduction strategies at scale. The paper advocates the implementation of consumption-based emissions accounting which reveals underexploited policy interventions and increases the potential to break down barriers that exist between industrialised and emerging economies in international climate policy.     

清洁发展机制与中国碳排放交易市场的构建

清洁发展机制是《京都议定书》创设的实现全球碳减排目标的三大灵活机制之一,为我国的可持续发展作出了重大贡献,但其在我国运行中存在的问题也对我国参与国际碳市场和构建国内碳市场带来了风险与障碍.针对于此,本文对中国清洁发展机制项目的类型、数量、注册、签发等情况进行对比,发现我国虽然项目众多,但发展极不平衡.在此基础上,分析了中国清洁发展机制存在的主要问题,包括法律保障机制缺失,项目减排潜力发挥不充分,缺乏对转让技术的科学评估等.然后,通过介绍国际碳排放交易市场发展的不确定性和在2012年“后京都时期”的发展趋势,揭示了中国在这一过程中所承担的项目投资减少、成本增加等市场风险以及“碳泄漏”等环境风险.针对上述问题和风险,本文提出以现有清洁发展机制经验为基础构建中国国内碳排放交易市场的基本思路,即建立以排放交易法律体系为基础,以自愿碳交易市场构建为起点,以完善的监督管理体系为保障的中国碳排放交易机制.     

An Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s Carbon Emissions:Based on Provincial Panel Data

Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory,the authors choose provincial panel data of China in 1990 2007 and adopt panel unit root and co-integration testing method to study whether there is Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s carbon emissions.The research results show that:carbon emissions per capita of the eastern region and the central region of China fit into Environmental Kuznets Curve,but that of the western region does not.On this basis,the authors carry out scenario analysis on the occurrence time of the inflection point of carbon emissions per capita of different regions,and describe a specific time path.     

中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗的冲击效应分析

受能源消费结构的影响,煤炭作为我国经济发展的资源支柱,一方面推动着经济快速增长,另一方面也对中国节能减排、降低碳排放强度提出了挑战,因而准确认识碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的交互冲击作用机理,为挖掘碳减排路径提供了科学依据.本文选取1990 - 2008年间中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗指标,采用EG协整检验证明碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间存在长期稳定关系,并以此建立VAR模型和脉冲响应函数,考察碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的长期动态影响特征.冲击响应分析结果表明:(1)煤炭消耗比重的变化对碳排放强度的冲击影晌具有一定滞后性和波动性,但冲击作用长期持久；(2)碳排放强度对煤炭消耗比重的冲击影响在短期内较剧烈,但长期冲击影响不明显；(3)煤炭消耗比重的降低在长期内会促使碳排放强度的降低,因而可以通过降低煤炭消耗比重来达到降低碳排放强度的目的.最后,从结构性降低、产业传导性降低以及技术性降低等角度,提出减少煤炭消耗、降低碳排放强度的相关对策措施.     

城镇居民生活能耗与碳排放动态特征分析

居民家庭生活能源消费与碳排放越来越不容忽视,开展这方面研究对于促进居民可持续消费、寻找新的节能减排途径都具有十分重要的意义.本文在考察量化1999-2007年中国城镇居民生活直接、间接能源消费及其碳排放连续变化的基础上,探究了这段时期生活能耗与碳排放的动态变化特征,并分析其潜在的影响因素.研究主要结论包括:1999-2007年,中国城镇居民人均生活总能耗和碳排总量都呈现出逐年增加趋势,其中间接能耗与碳排始终大于直接能耗与碳排,但二者的差异正在逐年缩小;对于人均直接能耗与碳排来说,二者总量都呈逐年增加趋势,其中电力和煤炭是最主要的直接能源消费品种,也是最主要的碳排来源;对于人均间接能耗与碳排来说,虽然居民生活消费开支逐年递增,但由于各类消费项的单位产值能源强度在逐年下降,因此总的间接能耗与碳排并没呈现出一定的递增或递减趋势,而是出现波动性变化.其中"食品"、"教育文化娱乐服务"和"居住"3项是居民生活间接能耗与碳排的主要来源;人均住宅建筑面积是居民生活碳排变化的主要影晌因子.研究结论为引导可持续的家庭消费模式和节能减排措施的制定提供管理启示与科学依据.