Can oil prices help estimate commodity futures prices? The cases of copper and silver

There is an extensive literature on modeling the stochastic process of commodity futures. It has been shown that models with several risk factors are able to adequately fit both the level and the volatility structure of observed transactions with reasonable low errors.     

Investigation on the relationship between the fine particle emission and crystallization characteristics of gypsum during wet flue gas desulfurization process

The relationship between the fine particles emitted after desulfurization and gypsum crystals in the desulfurization slurry was investigated, and the crystallization characteristics varying with the operation parameters and compositions of the desulfurization slurry were discussed. The results showed that the fine particles generated during the desulfurization process were closely related to the crystal characteristics in the desulfurization slurry by comparison of their morphology and elements. With the higher proportion of fine crystals in the desulfurization slurry, the number concentration of fine particles after desulfurization was increased and their particle sizes were smaller, indicating that the optimization of gypsum crystallization was beneficial for the reduction of the fine particle emission. The lower pH value and an optimal temperature of the desulfurization slurry were beneficial to restrain the generation of fine crystals in the desulfurization slurry. In addition, the higher concentrations of the Fe^3 + ions and the F⁻ ions in the desulfurization slurry both promoted the generation of fine crystals with corresponding change of the morphology and the effect of the Fe^3 + ions was more obvious. With the application of the desulfurization synergist additive, it was beneficial for the inhibition of fine crystals while the thinner crystals were generated.     

排污权有偿使用与交易制度若干问题探析——以浙江省温州市为例

排污权有偿使用与交易制度是我国一项重要的环境经济政策。文章以温州市为例,从水环境管理视角出发,探讨排污权有偿使用与交易的若干问题。着重分析温州市初始排污权核定与分配的成效、存在的问题和解决途径,利用平均治理成本等方法设计排污权有偿使用价格,研究排污权交易的实现途径。在此基础上,文章提出应探索利用地方立法权制定排污权相关法律法规、完善初始排污权核定与分配方法、优化排污权竞拍机制和实施市场化激励政策等建议。     

某钢铁企业颗粒物无组织排放核算与监测对比分析

以济南东部老工业区一家大型钢铁企业为例,通过前期调研和排放系数核算出颗粒物(TSP)排放总量,再运用公式计算出厂区周边不同距离颗粒物(TSP)的落地浓度。将该落地浓度与厂区周边颗粒物(TSP)的监测值进行对比分析,充分印证了连续点源扩散的高斯模式的准确性和可行性。随着气流经过该厂区,对比上下风向监测点位颗粒物(TSP)浓度迅速升高(增大1.04倍),下风向颗粒物(TSP)浓度超出二级标准1.32倍;颗粒物(TSP)的落地浓度在厂区不同距离上的浓度变化明显,从0.1到10 km其落地浓度稀释了约3 500倍,距离>4 km时,无组织排放的颗粒物(TSP)对周围空气质量直接影响有限。     

Influence of agricultural activities, forest fires and agro-industries on air quality in Thailand

Annual and monthly-based emission inventories in northern, central and north-eastern provinces in Thailand, where agriculture and related agro-industries are very intensive, were estimated to evaluate the contribution of agricultural activity, including crop residue burning, forest fires and related agro-industries on air quality monitored in corresponding provinces. The monthly-based emission inventories of air pollutants, or, particulate matter (PM), NOx and SO₂, for various agricultural crops were estimated based on information on the level of production of typical crops: rice, corn, sugarcane, cassava, soybeans and potatoes using emission factors and other parameters related to country-specific values taking into account crop type and the local residue burning period. The estimated monthly emission inventory was compared with air monitoring data obtained at monitoring stations operated by the Pollution Control Department, Thailand (PCD) for validating the estimated emission inventory. The agro-industry that has the greatest impact on the regions being evaluated, is the sugar processing industry, which uses sugarcane as a raw material and its residue as fuel for the boiler. The backward trajectory analysis of the air mass arriving at the PCD station was calculated to confirm this influence. For the provinces being evaluated which are located in the upper northern, lower northern and northeast in Thailand, agricultural activities and forest fires were shown to be closely correlated to the ambient PM concentration while their contribution to the production of gaseous pollutants is much less.     

缺失烟囱参数估算及其应用对空气质量模拟结果的改进

针对源清单中部分点源烟囱参数缺失而采用源排放模型SMOKE(Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions)默认的烟囱参数对空气质量模型模拟结果造成的不利影响,综合考虑气象观测数据、空气质量监测数据、源排放强度以及相关标准和规范对烟囱设计的要求,分别基于最大落地浓度法和基于统计方法对2009年珠三角地区源清单中缺失烟囱参数点源的烟囱参数进行了估算,并将估算烟囱参数用在WRF/SMOKE-PRD/CMAQ空气质量模型系统分析其对模型模拟的改善情况.相比于采用SMOKE默认烟囱参数,基于最大落地浓度估算烟囱参数对NO2、NOx、SO2、PM10及O3的模拟结果均具有一定改善作用,而基于统计方法估算烟囱参数仅对SO2、O3的模拟结果有所提高.结果表明,使用基于最大落地浓度法估算得到的烟囱参数更为合理,使污染物的垂直排放分配更加合理,可以应用于空气质量模型输入源清单中缺失烟囱参数点源的估算,从而一定程度上改善空气质量模型的模拟效果.     

太滆运河总氮污染物排放限值研究

以太滆运河为研究对象,根据总氮污染物入河特点,对入河支浜进行概化,采用一维河流水质模型,将运河分为5段计算总氮污染物的排放限值。结果表明:太滆运河计算段的总氮污染物排放限值为10.4t/a,而目前排入太滆运河计算段的总氮约为40t/a。建议对太滆运河两岸总氮污染物实行严格的减排措施以提高入湖河流的水质,确保太湖水环境质量。     

汽车排气污染防治现状及对策分析

随着汽车保有量的剧增,汽车尾气已逐步成为城市环境空气污染的主要来源之一,本文依据我国对机动车污染防治实施的政策及措施,结合近年来现状,对汽车排气污染防治的思路、政策及措施等方面做了分析探讨。     

基于可靠性统计分析法的制导弹药储存寿命评估

针对制导弹药价格昂贵而无法采用大规模性能试验和实弹射击方法进行可靠性研究的问题,采用可靠性统计分析法对制导弹药储存寿命进行评估。通过建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命模型,并以制导弹药火工品中的待发程控装置为研究对象,运用Bayes法对试验数据出现的＂倒挂＂现象进行了修正。依据修正后的试验数据进行计算,得到了在一定置信度下待发程控装置的储存寿命。