灾变预测在企业安全事故预测中的应用

简述了灰色理论中灾变预测的特点及其建模过程,并将其应用于企业安全事故预测之中.经检验,模型的精度等级为好,模型的预测结果可靠,对于企业安全事故的预测有一定帮助.     

灰色层次结构模型在故障树分析中的应用

故障树分析技术对于复杂系统的故障诊断具有重要应用价值,提出把故障树看作2层灰色结构,通过建立灰色层次结构模型,给出判断各种故障模式发生可能性大小的一种通用方法.将其应用于压力容器爆炸事故的故障树分析,并取得了与实际情况吻合的满意结果.该方法为了解事故影响因素重要程度、控制事故发生和改进系统可靠性提供依据.     

Urban waterfowl population: Ecological evaluation of management and planning

An urban population of ducks in Puyallup, Washington, USA was studied for 14 consecutive months beginning in November 1978. Observations were made weekly from four study sites where ducks would congregate at early morning hours. Factors contributing to the presence of waterfowl in Puyallyup included abundant food supplies and a creek corridor that connected fragmented habitats in the urban area to the larger rural populations of waterfowl. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) were the most abundant of the 13 species observed and were the only ducks remaining during the nesting season. Habitat size and complexity were important factors influencing the species diversity of a particular site. Nesting success of mallards was poor due to limited distribution of nesting habitat, intraspecific aggression, and human disturbance. Both site-specific and more broad-based strategies are suggested for managing and planning for duck populations in urban areas.     

Effectiveness of Voluntary Conservation Agreements: Case Study of Endangered Whales and Commercial Whale Watching

Abstract: The use of voluntary approaches to achieve conservation goals is becoming increasingly popular. Nevertheless, few researchers have quantitatively evaluated their efficacy. In 1998 industry, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations established a voluntary conservation program for whale watching in the northeast region of the United States, with the intent to avoid collisions with and harassment of endangered whales by commercial and recreational whale‐watching vessels. One important aspect of the program was the establishment of 3 speed zones within specific distances of whales. We wanted to determine the level of compliance with this aspect of the program to gauge its efficacy and gain insights into the effectiveness of voluntary measures as a conservation tool. Inconspicuous observers accompanied 46 commercial whale‐watching trips from 12 companies in 2003 (n= 35) and 2004 (n= 11). During each trip, vessel position and speed were collected at 5‐second intervals with a GPS receiver. Binoculars with internal laser rangefinders and digital compasses were used to record range and bearing to sighted whales. We mapped whale locations with ArcGIS. We created speed‐zone buffers around sighted whales and overlaid them with vessel‐track and speed data to evaluate compliance. Speeds in excess of those recommended by the program were considered noncompliant. We judged the magnitude of noncompliance by comparing a vessel's maximum speed within a zone to its maximum recorded trip speed. The level of noncompliance was high (mean 0.78; company range 0.74–0.88), some companies were more compliant than others (p= 0.02), noncompliance was significantly higher in zones farther from whales (p < 0.001), and operators approached the maximum speed capabilities of their vessel in all zones. The voluntary conservation program did not achieve the goal of substantially limiting vessel speed near whales. Our results support the need for conservation programs to have quantifiable metrics and frequent evaluation to ensure efficacy.     

中小型在役桥梁安全预警研究

为了准确评估中小型在役桥梁安全状况,提出利用灰色关联故障树分析法对中小型在役桥梁进行安全预警研究。首先建立中小型在役桥梁安全预警故障树;其次采用专家打分法确定故障树各底事件的不可靠概率,得到各底事件的重要度,并利用灰色关联理论求出故障树各底事件的关联度;根据预警理论将各底事件的关联度与各底事件的重要度加权平均确定预警值所处的警限区间,从而确定警度及需要发出的预警信号灯,完成预警工作,并提出相应的预控对策。最后通过实例分析,结果表明该方法具有可行性与实用性。     

基于模糊物元模型的西苕溪流域生态系统健康评价

本文借助RS/GIS技术,结合遥感影像数据、环境监测数据和社会经济数据,运用模糊物元模型,从水域、水陆交错带和陆域子系统选取21项评价指标,建立了流域生态系统健康综合评价指标体系,对西苕溪流域生态系统健康状况的空间分布规律和限制性因子进行了探讨.研究结果表明,西苕溪流域生态系统健康整体呈现出优良状态,其中,生态系统健康优秀地区面积占68.2%,良好地区面积占31.8%,能够正常发挥流域服务功能,维持生态系统可持续发展.西苕溪流域生态系统健康在空间分布上呈现出上游好、下游差的局面.在各子系统健康评价中,水域生态系统优于陆域生态系统,水陆交错带生态系统最差.底栖动物完整性遭受破坏、湿地退化、人为干扰活动、水源涵养功能减弱、点源和面源污染负荷较重是限制西苕溪流域部分评价单元生态系统健康的重要因素.     

基于灰色理论的废弃电路板金属回收模型研究

电子废弃物的资源化既能实现资源的二次利用,又能防止环境污染,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.运用灰色理论对离心复合力场回收废弃电路板金属过程中反冲水、转速和浓度等操作参数对分选效果(精矿品位和精矿的回收率)的影响进行了研究,建立了基于GM(0,N)灰色模型的离心复合力场回收废弃电路板分选模型.经验证模型精度较高.     

乡村人居环境系统韧性的演变规律及其提升路径——以国家城乡融合发展试验区重庆西部片区为例

以国家城乡融合发展试验区——重庆西部片区为研究区,以2009年、2014年、2019年为研究时点,以2009—2019年为研究时段,按照思想缘起、理论基础、实证演绎、提升路径的研究思路,建立乡村人居环境系统韧性测度的指标体系,分析其演变规律。研究结果表明：2009—2019年,重庆西部片区的乡村人居环境系统韧性水平不断上升,呈现出“南高北低”的空间格局。各子系统韧性在时间上呈现出不同程度的增长趋势,在空间上差异明显：自然系统韧性与人类系统韧性分别呈现出“由南向北递减”和“东西部向中部递减”的空间格局;居住系统韧性与支撑系统韧性则分别呈现出由“低值点缀分布”逐渐过渡到较为均衡和“普遍均衡、高低值点缀”的空间格局;社会系统韧性表现为“西部增强、东部减弱”的空间格局特征。借助障碍度模型对重庆西部片区乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的障碍因子及不同区县面临的主导障碍进行诊断,根据结果将重庆西部片区划分为单一主导障碍型、双重障碍型与三层障碍型三种类型,据此设计乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的差异化路径,以期打破重庆西部片区乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的多重制约。     

上海市入境旅游市场发展潜力与旅游外汇收入的关系研究——基于灰色预测和灰色关联分析法

利用灰色预测法对上海市入境旅游11个国家和地区的赴沪旅游者人数和旅游外汇收入进行了预测,推断出上海市入境旅游市场中不同国家和地区的市场潜力;运用灰色关联分析法,探索不同市场潜力等级的入境旅游国家和地区与上海市旅游外汇收入间的关系.针对亚洲和欧美各国家或地区的实际情况,提出了针对性的对策和建议.