上海南区污水输送干线世博期间排水安全保障

上海世界博览会将于2010年5月至10月召开,会展期跨越上海市夏季主汛期。届时如何保障世博园区的排水安全和水质安全,对接纳园区污水的已建干线排水系统是一个极大的考验。通过建立上海市南干线排水管网系统的数学水力集成模型,对世博园区污水接入后南干线的水力状态进行模拟,预测世博园区的排水风险,提出世博期间南干线的排水安全保障方案,为世博会期间的防洪保安奠定基础。     

污染减排影响经济发展的投入产出模型及实证分析

构建了环境经济投入产出模型,针对淘汰落后产能对经济发展的影响进行了实证研究,定量计算了2006～2007年问淘汰落后产能对于经济社会发展的贡献度和影响.研究表明,虽然淘汰落后产能对于传统的国民经济发展指标有一定负面影响,但对于优化经济增长方式确实起到了积极作用.一是优化了产业结构,第一、二、三产业结构由2005年的12.4%,48.6%,39.0%调整为2006年的12.5%,48.2%和39.3%,2007年调整为12.6%,47.8%和39.6%,第二产业所占比重逐步下降,第三产业所占比重逐步上升;在第二产业内部.造纸、食品、电力、炼焦、金属冶炼、非金属矿物制品业等重污染行业的增加值所占比重持续下降,产业结构逐步得到优化.二是提高了经济效率,从涉及到的造纸、食品、电力、炼焦、金属冶炼、非金属矿物制品业6个产业部门2006年和2007年的COD和SO_2的产污系数看,都比2005年有所降低.2006年和2007年,食品制造业的单位增加值COD排放量比2005年分别下降了6.6%和25.0%;金属冶炼及压延加工业的单位增加值SO_2排放量比2005年分别下降3.5%和6.9%.     

Development and application of a two-dimensional water quality model for the Daqinghe River Mouth of the Dianchi Lake

Water quality models are important tools to support the optimization of aquatic ecosystem rehabilitation programs and assess their efficiency. Basing on the flow conditions of the Daqinghe River Mouth of the Dianchi Lake, China, two-dimensional water quality model was developed in the research. The hydrodynamics module was numerically solved by the alternating direction iteration (ADI) method. The parameters of the water quality module were obtained through the in situ experiments and the lab analyses that were conducted from 2006 to 2007. The model was calibrated and verified by the observation data in 2007. Among the four modelled key variables that were water level, CODcr, NH3-N and PO4-P, the minimum value of the coefficient of determination (CoD) was 0.69, which mean the model performed reasonably well. The developed model was then applied to simulate the water quality changes at the downstream cross-section assuming that the designed restoration programs were implemented. According to the simulated results, the restoration programs could cut down the loads of CODcr and PO4-P about 15%, however, they would have very little effect on the NH3-N removal. Besides, the water quality at the outlet cross-section would be still in class V (3838-02), indicating more measures should be taken to further reduce the loads. The study demonstrated the capability of water quality models to support aquatic ecosystem restorations.     

Influence of rice straw burning on the levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in agricultural county, Taiwan

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High-resolution modeling and evaluation of ozone air quality of Osaka using MM5-CMAQ system

High-resolution modeling approach is increasingly being considered as a necessary step for improving the monitoring and predictions of regional air quality. This is especially true for highly urbanized region with complex terrain and land-use. This study uses Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model coupled with MM5 mesoscale model for a comprehensive analysis to assess the suitability of such high-resolution modeling system in predicting ozone air quality in the complex terrains of Osaka, Japan. The 1-km and 3-km grid domains were nested inside a 9-km domain and the domain with 1-km grid covered the Osaka region. High-resolution Grid Point Value-Mesoscale Model (GPV-MSM) data were used after suitable validation. The simulated ozone concentrations were validated and evaluated using statistical metrics using performance criteria set for ozone. Daily maxima of ozone were found better simulated by the 1-km grid domain than the coarser 9-km and 3-km domains, with the maximum improvement in the mean absolute gross error about 3 ppbv. In addition, 1-km grid results fared better than other grids at most of the observation stations that showed noticeable di erences in gross error as well as correlation. These results amply justify the use of the integrated high-resolution MM5-CMAQ modeling system in the highly urbanized region, such as the Osaka region, which has complex terrain and land-use.     

基于NLMSFD模式对风速分布规律的数值模拟——以山东威海风电场为例

针对风电场建设要求,论文利用非线性高分辨率数值模式NLMSFD尝试对山东荣成地区风资源进行评估。在试验区域内,分别选取两座测风塔不同高度上1年的月平均风速观测资料作为驱动值,利用模式对试验区的风速分布进行了模拟试验,获取了试验区100 m×100 m分辨率条件下风速一年四季的空间分布信息,并将模拟值与实测值对比,分析了模式在试验区地形及粗糙度条件下的模拟精度,评价了NLMSFD模式的可适用性。结果表明,模式的模拟结果基本能反映出月平均风速的时空变化规律,但两塔位置处模拟值与观测值的相对误差随高度和季节变化有所不同。从季节上看,模式的模拟结果在冬季较好,夏季误差稍大,春、秋次之;从高度上看,除10 m高度外,其它高度层的相对误差大多在10%以内。利用不同位置的观测资料驱动模式,模拟结果的精度也受影响。如利用远离海岸边的观测资料驱动模式要比近海观测资料驱动模式所得的模拟结果好;同时对于近海的测风塔,采用距地面位置较高的观测资料作为驱动值要比采用10 m高度的资料驱动模式的模拟精度好。这些结果说明NLMSFD模式在精细化风资源评估及风电场选址中具有一定的参考应用价值。     

西藏地区春青稞耗水特征及适宜灌溉制度探讨

以中科院拉萨高原生态试验站为依托,通过开展春青稞生长与土壤水分定位观测实验,利用SHAW模型实现对春青稞农田蒸散发与土壤水深层渗漏与补给过程模拟,分析了春青稞的耗水特征,并对其适宜的灌溉制度进行了初步探讨:①春青稞生长期间,耗水450 mm左右,其中,分蘖—拔节、拔节—抽穗、抽穗—蜡熟这3个阶段是春青稞的耗水旺期,耗水量占整个生长期的72%。把握住该时期的水分供应,对提高作物产量十分重要。②在春青稞的需水关键期降水量仅能满足作物需水的58%,必须补充人工灌溉;但现行的灌溉制度由于灌溉量较大,不仅加大土壤蒸发,更造成较大的深层渗漏。③在播种—出苗、拔节—抽穗期分别灌溉50 mm,抽穗—蜡熟期灌溉60 mm,共减少灌溉用水125 mm后,深层渗漏减少了81%(131 mm);深层土壤水向上补给量增加了55%(44 mm)。节水灌溉不仅减少了土壤蒸发与深层渗漏也促使深层土壤水向上补给根系层,应该大力推广这一灌溉制度。     

羊草草原碳循环过程的模拟与验证

根据内蒙古典型羊草草原碳通量和生物量观测数据,验证VIP(Vegetation Interface Proces-ses)模型,并模拟分析1958—2007年该生态系统碳循环特征及其与环境因子的相关关系。结果显示:VIP模型能够较准确地模拟地上生物量(R2=0.70)和净生态系统生产力NEP(R2=0.57)的变化趋势。羊草草原生态系统总初级生产力(GPP)、净初级生产力(NPP)和生态系统呼吸(Re)在1958—1973年间下降,1973—1993年间增长,1993年后又出现下降的趋势。与环境因子的相关性分析表明,GPP、NPP和Re随CO2和降水的增多而增大,随温度升高和降水的减少而降低,其中降水量与碳通量相关性最高,呼吸与温度、降水、CO2均存在一定程度的正相关关系。NEP年际变化较大,主要受控于年降水量,以228 mm为界,年降水量大于此值时,NEP为正的概率较大。     

上海中心城区土地利用变化对区域降雨径流的影响研究

土地利用变化导致的城市下垫面改变对降雨径流关系有着重要影响。选择高度城市化的上海中心城区,利用初损和径流量修正方法并经实测数据验证后的SCS-CN修正模型,在城市集水区尺度上,初步探讨模拟了1947—2006年中心城区在0.5～10 a一遇设计暴雨重现期条件下持续1 h的降雨事件和丰、平、枯降雨年份下的径流系数,并分析了土地利用方式、前期土壤湿润程度(AMC)和降雨因素对中心城区60 a降雨径流关系的影响。结果表明:①60 a间,AMCⅠ和0.5～10 a一遇设计暴雨重现期条件下的径流系数相对增长17.21%～6.14%,枯、平和丰水年的年径流系数相对增长分别为20.49%、11.83%和10.02%;②土地利用类型、土壤入渗能力和AMC类型,与降雨强度共同构成影响降雨径流关系的两方面重要因素。随着降雨强度的增大,在AMCⅠ→Ⅲ过程中,土地利用改变对降雨径流关系的影响趋小,降雨类型起决定作用;而降雨强度越小,土壤AMC越干燥,土地利用改变对降雨径流关系影响越强;③不同降雨强度和降水年条件下的径流系数均随CN值的增大而增加,其径流系数与CN值之间分别可用线性(R20.999)和指数(R20.987)关系表示。     

Multiple linear regression models of urban runoff pollutant load and event mean concentration considering rainfall variables

Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration (EMC) which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources (NPSs). Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.