Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Defining and Evaluating the Umbrella Species Concept for Conserving and Restoring Landscape Connectivity

Conserving or restoring landscape connectivity between patches of breeding habitat is a common strategy to protect threatened species from habitat fragmentation. By managing connectivity for some species, usually charismatic vertebrates, it is often assumed that these species will serve as conservation umbrellas for other species. We tested this assumption by developing a quantitative method to measure overlap in dispersal habitat of 3 threatened species—a bird (the umbrella), a butterfly, and a frog—inhabiting the same fragmented landscape. Dispersal habitat was determined with Circuitscape, which was parameterized with movement data collected for each species. Despite differences in natural history and breeding habitat, we found substantial overlap in the spatial distributions of areas important for dispersal of this suite of taxa. However, the intuitive umbrella species (the bird) did not have the highest overlap with other species in terms of the areas that supported connectivity. Nevertheless, we contend that when there are no irreconcilable differences between the dispersal habitats of species that cohabitate on the landscape, managing for umbrella species can help conserve or restore connectivity simultaneously for multiple threatened species with different habitat requirements. Definición y Evaluación del Concepto de Especie Paraguas para Conservar y Restaurar la Conectividad de Paisajes     

State of research on the automation of HAZOP studies

For more than 30 years, multiple research groups have worked on the automation of hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies, or more specifically on the hazard identification process. So far, very few of these approaches have been used in the chemical process industry. Automatic hazard identification is a knowledge-intensive process that demands high standards with regard to the way in which knowledge is stored and made available. There are various suitable approaches to the qualitative modeling of processes and plants, which are the foundation for reasoning systems that are used for the identification of hazards. Additionally, there are quantitative methods that are based on process simulations and can be used to identify potential hazards. The investigation of the state of research demonstrates that there are sophisticated technologies for automated systems that include powerful reasoning techniques. The benefits and shortcomings of existing technologies are discussed with regard to their industrial applicability. Often, the quality of the necessary specific and generic knowledge is not sufficient to detect potential hazardous events and operational malfunctions. Computer-aided HAZOP systems should be integrated with computer-aided design- or process simulation software using common data models based on the digital representation of the process plant. In order to be used by HAZOP practitioners automated systems need to be comprehensive, serve as specialized decision support systems, and be tested and evaluated using round robin tests.     

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.     

Cost‐effectiveness of conservation payment schemes for species with different range sizes

Payments to compensate landowners for carrying out costly land‐use measures that benefit endangered biodiversity have become an important policy instrument. When designing such payments, it is important to take into account that spatially connected habitats are more valuable for many species than isolated ones. One way to incentivize provision of connected habitats is to offer landowners an agglomeration bonus, that is, a bonus on top of payments they are receiving to conserve land if the land is spatially connected. Researchers have compared the cost‐effectiveness of the agglomeration bonus with 2 alternatives: an all‐or‐nothing, agglomeration payment, where landowners receive a payment only if the conserved land parcels have a certain level of spatial connectivity, and a spatially homogeneous payment, where landowners receive a payment for conserved land parcels irrespective of their location. Their results show the agglomeration bonus is rarely the most cost‐effective option, and when it is, it is only slightly better than one of the alternatives. This suggests that the agglomeration bonus should not be given priority as a policy design option. However, this finding is based on consideration of only 1 species. We examined whether the same applied to 2 species, one for which the homogeneous payment is best and the other for which the agglomeration payment is most cost‐effective. We modified a published conceptual model so that we were able to assess the cost‐effectiveness of payment schemes for 2 species and applied it to a grassland bird and a grassland butterfly in Germany that require the same habitat but have different spatial‐connectivity needs. When conserving both species, the agglomeration bonus was more cost‐effective than the agglomeration and the homogeneous payment; thus, we showed that as a policy the agglomeration bonus is a useful conservation‐payment option.     

CFD simulation of MSW combustion and SNCR in a commercial incinerator

A CFD scheme was presented for modeling municipal solid waste (MSW) combustion in a moving-grate incinerator, including the in-bed burning of solid wastes, the out-of-bed burnout of gaseous volatiles, and the selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) process between urea (CO(NH₂)₂) and NO_x. The in-bed calculations provided 2-D profiles of the gas–solid temperatures and the gas species concentrations along the bed length, which were then used as inlet conditions for the out-of-bed computations. The over-bed simulations provided the profiles of incident radiation heat flux on the top of bed. A 3-dimensional benchmark simulation was conducted with a 750 t/day commercial incinerator using the present coupling scheme incorporating with a reduced SNCR reduction mechanism. Numerical tests were performed to investigate the effects of operating parameters such as injection position, injection speed and the normalized stoichiometric ratio (NSR) on the SNCR performance. The simulation results showed that the distributions of gas velocity, temperature and NO_x concentration were highly non-uniform, which made the injection position one of the most sensitive operating parameters influencing the SNCR performance of moving grate incinerators. The simulation results also showed that multi-layer injections were needed to meet the EU2000 standard, and a NSR 1.5 was suggested as a compromise of a satisfactory NO_x reduction and reasonable NH₃ slip rates. This work provided useful guides to the design and operation of SNCR process in moving-grate incinerators.     

The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

Removal of perfluorinated surfactants from wastewater by adsorption and ion exchange——Influence of material properties,sorption mechanism and modeling

Perfluorooctane sulfonate(PFOS) has attracted increasing concern in recent years due to its world-wide distribution, persistence, bioaccumulation and potential toxicity. The influence of sorbent properties on the adsorptive elimination of PFOS from wastewater by activated carbons, polymer adsorbents and anion exchange resins was investigated with regard to their isotherms and kinetics. The batch and column tests were combined with physicochemical characterization methods, e.g., N_2 physisorption, mercury porosimetry, infrared spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, titrations, as well as modeling. Sorption kinetics was successfully modelled applying the linear driving force(LDF) approach for surface diffusion after introducing a load dependency of the mass transfer coefficient βs.The big difference in the initial mass transfer coefficient βs,0, when non-functionalized adsorbents and ion-exchange resins are compared, suggests that the presence of functional groups impedes the intraparticle mass transport. The more functional groups a resin possesses and the longer the alkyl moieties are the bigger is the decrease in sorption rate.But the selectivity for PFOS sorption is increasing when the character of the functional groups becomes more hydrophobic. Accordingly, ion exchange and hydrophobic interaction were found to be involved in the sorption processes on resins, while PFOS is only physisorptively bound to activated carbons and polymer adsorbents. In agreement with the different adsorption mechanisms, resins possess higher total sorption capacities than adsorbents. Hence, the latter ones are rendered more effective in PFOS elimination at concentrations in the low μg/L range, due to a less pronounced convex curvature of the sorption isotherm in this concentration range.     

城市大气中臭氧浓度控制的困难与挑战——以成都市为例

研究城市化、工业化和区域经济一体化进程的不断加快,对城市大气环境的影响是当前大气环境领域研究的热点问题。在此过程中,利用空气质量模型模拟系统研究大气环境污染问题成为大气环境研究中不可缺少的组成部分。在当前空气污染复杂的形势下,针对城市大气环境中臭氧的浓度尚未有效的控制措施。研究主要利用Models-3/CMAQ空气质量模式对成都市臭氧浓度数值通过不同的控制情景进行模拟,揭示城市大气中臭氧浓度控制的困难与挑战,并尝试性提出今后的研究方向,以期为控制城市大气中臭氧浓度提供建议。