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排序方式: 共有178条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
31.
Georgios D. Gikas Trisevgeni Yiannakopoulou Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2006,11(3):219-233
SWAT ver. 2000 was used to predict hydrographs, and sediment, nitrate and total phosphorus loadings from a 1349 km2 mountainous/agricultural watershed in Northern Greece. The model was calibrated and verified using continuous meteorological
data from eight stations within the drainage area, and runoff, sediment and nutrient concentrations measured at nine stations
located within the main tributaries of the watershed, for the time period from May 1st, 1998 to January 31st, 2000. Model
validation methodology and resulting input parameters appropriate for Mediterranean drainage basins are presented. Predicted
by the model hydrographs, sedimentographs and pollutographs are plotted against observed values and show good agreement. Model
performance is evaluated using the root mean square error computation and scattergrams of predicted versus observed data.
The validated model is also used to test the effectiveness of three alternative cropping scenarios in reducing nutrient loadings
from the agricultural part of the watershed. The study showed that this model, if properly validated, can be used effectively
in testing management scenarios in Mediterranean drainage basins. 相似文献
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33.
Brian C. Dietterick James A. Lynch Edward S. Corbett 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1999,35(2):457-468
ABSTRACT: An evaluation was conducted on three forested upland watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to test the suitability of TOPMODEL for predicting water yield over a wide range of climatic scenarios. The analysis provides insight of the usefulness of TOPMODEL as a predictive tool for future assessments of potential long-term changes in water yield as a result of changes in global climate. The evaluation was conducted by developing a calibration procedure to simulate a range of climatic extremes using historical temperature, precipitation, and streamfiow records for years having wet, average, and dry precipitation amounts from the Leading Ridge (Pennsylvania), Fernow (West Virginia), and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) Experimental Watersheds. This strategy was chosen to determine whether the model could be successfully calibrated over a broad range of soil moisture conditions with the assumption that this would be representative of the sensitivity necessary to predict changes in streamfiow under a variety of climate change scenarios. The model calibration was limited to a daily time step, yet performed reasonably well for each watershed. Model efficiency, a least squares measure of how well a model performs, averaged between 0.64 and 0.78. A simple test of the model whereby daily temperatures were increased by 1.7°C, resulted in annual water yield decreases of 4 to 15 percent on the three watersheds. Although these results makes the assumption that the model components adequately describe the system, this version of TOPMODEL is capable to predict water yield impacts given subtle changes in the temperature regime. This suggests that adequate representations of the effects of climate change on water yield for regional assessment purposes can be expected using the TOPMODEL concept. 相似文献
34.
Global emissions trading allows for agricultural measures to be accounted for the carbon sequestration in soils. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was tested for central European site conditions by means of agricultural extensification scenarios. Results of soil and management analyses of different management systems (cultivation with mouldboard plough, reduced tillage, and grassland/fallow establishment) on 13 representative sites in the German State Baden-Württemberg were used to calibrate the EPIC model. Calibration results were compared to those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prognosis tool. The first calibration step included adjustments in (a) N depositions, (b) N2-fixation by bacteria during fallow, and (c) nutrient content of organic fertilisers according to regional values. The mixing efficiency of implements used for reduced tillage and four crop parameters were adapted to site conditions as a second step of the iterative calibration process, which should optimise the agreement between measured and simulated humus changes. Thus, general rules were obtained for the calibration of EPIC for different criteria and regions. EPIC simulated an average increase of +0.341 Mg humus-C ha−1 a−1 for on average 11.3 years of reduced tillage compared to land cultivated with mouldboard plough during the same time scale. Field measurements revealed an average increase of +0.343 Mg C ha−1 a−1 and the IPCC prognosis tool +0.345 Mg C ha−1 a−1. EPIC simulated an average increase of +1.253 Mg C ha−1 a−1 for on average 10.6 years of grassland/fallow establishment compared to an average increase of +1.342 Mg humus-C ha−1 a−1 measured by field measurements and +1.254 Mg C ha−1 a−1 according to the IPCC prognosis tool. The comparison of simulated and measured humus C stocks was r2 ≥ 0.825 for all treatments. However, on some sites deviations between simulated and measured results were considerable. The result for the simulation of yields was similar. In 49% of the cases the simulated yields differed from the surveyed ones by more than 20%. Some explanations could be found by qualitative cause analyses. Yet, for quantitative analyses the available information from farmers was not sufficient. Altogether EPIC is able to represent the expected changes by reduced tillage or grassland/fallow establishment acceptably under central European site conditions of south-western Germany. 相似文献
35.
Associated plant and animal diversity provides ecosystem services within crop production systems. The importance of the maintenance or restoration of diversity is therefore increasingly acknowledged. Here we study the population dynamics of associated annual plants (‘weeds’) during the growth of a crop in a season and introduce a minimal model to characterize the recruitment and attrition of the associated plants under the influence of shading by the crop. A mechanistically based, logistic, light interception model was parameterized with light interception measurements in two single crops (barley and rye) and in mixtures of these cereals with peas. Population dynamics data were collected for the annuals Papaver rhoeas, Centaurea cyanus, Chrysanthemum segetum, and Misopates orontium. A minimal population dynamics model was identified for each annual plant species, using system identification techniques as model selection and calibration. 相似文献
36.
Sundar Niroula Kevin Wallington Ximing Cai 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(2):213-225
Data limitations often challenge the reliability of water quality models, especially in intensively managed watersheds. While numerous studies report successful hydrological model setup and calibration, few have addressed in detail the data challenges for multisite and multivariable model calibration to an intensively managed watershed. In this study, we address some of these challenges based on our reflective experience calibrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Upper Sangamon River Watershed in central Illinois based on daily flow, annual crop yield, and monthly sediment, nitrate, and total phosphorus loads. We highlight some challenges in SWAT calibration processes due to data errors and inconsistencies, and insufficient precipitation and water quality observations. Following, we demonstrate the merits of additional weather and water quality observations that could help reduce input uncertainties, and we provide suggestions for selecting appropriate observations for the model calibration. After dealing with the data issues, we show that the SWAT model could be calibrated with acceptable results for the case study watershed. 相似文献
37.
生物营养物去除(BNR)工艺模型参数校正与验证方法 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
研究了结合活性污泥系统物料平衡的生物营养物去除(BNR)工艺模型参数校正与验证方法.首先采用代尔夫特理工大学开发的TUD模型及其参数缺省值进行初步模拟,并将模拟结果与实测数据进行对比以明确模拟偏差.同时,对原始运行数据进行物料平衡衡算,以消除测量误差并获得TP排放量、反硝化量及氧的净消耗量等平衡计算值,为模型校正提供依据.初步模拟结果显示,TP排放量(3913mg·d-1,以P计)和反硝化量(16170mg·d-1,以N计)均超出了平衡计算值的误差范围(分别为(3762.0±43.1)mg·d-1和(14150±237)mg·d-1),且沿程溶解性COD(SCOD)、PO34--P、NH4+-N、NO3--N不能完全与实测数据吻合,表明工艺模型参数的默认值需得到必要的校正.结合TP平衡,先修正污泥龄(SRT)的计算误差;应用平衡后的运行数据,将SRT由初始值10.3d调整为10d.SRT调整后,再次模拟得出的TP排放量为3750mg·d-1,已在平衡计算结果的范围之内,TP平衡得到了闭合.将发酵过程最大反应速率常数qfe从3d-1提高到15d-1后,沿程及PO43--P拟合结果同时得到了显著改善.通过调整DO及NH4+-N的亲和系数KNH4(从1mg·L-1至0.2mg·L-1),沿程NH4+-N得到了拟合.出水及沿程NO3--N的拟合通过调整氧的亲和系数KO2从0.7至0.1mg·L-1)得以实现.最后校核反硝化负荷及氧的净消耗量,模拟计算的反硝化负荷为14090mg·d-1,氧的净消耗量为126900mg·d-1,均在平衡计算值的误差范围之内(分别为(14150±237)mg·d-1和(129700±2910)mg·d-1),说明校正过程合理、可靠. 相似文献
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39.
S. Lehuger B. Gabrielle M. van Oijen D. Makowski J.-C. Germon T. Morvan C. Hnault 《Agriculture, ecosystems & environment》2009,133(3-4):208
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the main biogenic greenhouse gas contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate therefore requires a capacity to predict N2O emissions in relation to environmental conditions and crop management. Biophysical models simulating the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in agro-ecosystems have a unique potential to explore these relationships, but are fraught with high uncertainties in their parameters due to their variations over time and space. Here, we used a Bayesian approach to calibrate the parameters of the N2O submodel of the agro-ecosystem model CERES-EGC. The submodel simulates N2O emissions from the nitrification and denitrification processes, which are modelled as the product of a potential rate with three dimensionless factors related to soil water content, nitrogen content and temperature. These equations involve a total set of 15 parameters, four of which are site-specific and should be measured on site, while the other 11 are considered global, i.e. invariant over time and space. We first gathered prior information on the model parameters based on the literature review, and assigned them uniform probability distributions. A Bayesian method based on the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm was subsequently developed to update the parameter distributions against a database of seven different field-sites in France. Three parallel Markov chains were run to ensure a convergence of the algorithm. This site-specific calibration significantly reduced the spread in parameter distribution, and the uncertainty in the N2O simulations. The model’s root mean square error (RMSE) was also abated by 73% across the field sites compared to the prior parameterization. The Bayesian calibration was subsequently applied simultaneously to all data sets, to obtain better global estimates for the parameters initially deemed universal. This made it possible to reduce the RMSE by 33% on average, compared to the uncalibrated model. These global parameter values may be used to obtain more realistic estimates of N2O emissions from arable soils at regional or continental scales. 相似文献
40.