碳数和官能团对直链易挥发化合物异味阈值的影响规律

以具有代表性的异味特征-异味阈值为研究对象,采用三点比较式臭袋法测定了醇类、醛类、酮类、酸类和硫醇类5个系列常见异味化合物的异味阈值,研究了异味阈值与碳链长度之间的关系,并以官能团疏水性参数量化表征官能团结构,研究了异味阈值与官能团类型之间的关系.研究发现,分子碳链长度和官能团类型都能影响异味阈值的大小,其中异味阈值与碳链长度关系为y=axb或lgy=cx+d(y:异味阈值,x:碳原子数);异味阈值与官能团疏水常数π参数关系为y=aebx或lgy=cx+d(y:异味阈值,x:官能团疏水性参数).所得模型能定量描述碳链长度和官能团类型对异味阈值的影响,为异味机理的进一步探索提供了有力支撑.此外,对异味阈值与上述两因素的多元线性拟合及残差分析结果表明,碳链长度和官能团类型能够影响化合物异味阈值,但二者并非异味阈值的完全决定因素,研究决定异味阈值的全面结构因素,需大量后续工作.     

三江平原毛果苔草湿地物理过程——能量环境的基本特征

从整个生长季(1999-04-30～09-30)来分析,到达毛果苔草湿地生态系统的太阳辐射能总量约为2673.06MJ/m2.太阳总辐射在一天内不同时间段累积呈现出单峰型曲线(抛物线型);分光辐射总量呈明显的单峰曲线(抛物线型),在分光辐射的几个分量中,光合有效辐射的分配比总是最大,其次是红外辐射,最小的是紫外辐射.净辐射主要与下垫面的季节性植被季相有关,生长初期与生长末期较大,而生长旺盛期较小.      

中小学校园拥挤踩踏事故风险评估指标研究

为研究诱发中小学校园拥挤踩踏事故风险因素,根据近年来21起典型事故统计结果,设计调查问卷,在问卷信度检验结果满足良好的相关水平和一致性的基础上得出中小学校园拥挤踩踏事故影响因素分为4个方面,9个因素。基于数据处理系统(DPS),引入非参数投影寻踪回归模型的理论方法,对多维拥挤踩踏事故影响因素数据进行投影降维分析,利用交叉核实,进行非参数拟合,得出每一因素的权重值及事故发生预测值。拟合结果表明:人群失控、人群密度、时间限制3个影响因素更为重要,在校园拥挤踩踏事故日常预防中应多予重视,同时初步探讨影响因素权重在中小学拥挤踩踏事故评估中的应用,为进一步有效防止校园拥挤踩踏事故发生提供技术支持。     

飞机铝合金结构腐蚀损伤预测方法对比性研究

依据飞机LD2结构材料的加速腐蚀试验数据,提出了数据拟合、神经网络、时间序列3种腐蚀损伤预测方法,并对3种预测方法的基本原理、预测精度及预测外延性进行了对比分析。研究发现神经网络和时间序列方法预测精度较高;时间序列方法的预测外延性较好,能够以较高精度预测未来一段时期腐蚀损伤的发展趋势及损伤程度。因此,应根据研究需要选用合适的方法进行腐蚀损伤预测。     

地表水中甲醛的光谱吸收曲线-线性拟合斜率-乙酰丙酮分光光度法检测

光谱吸收曲线-线性拟合斜率-分光光度法(SAC-LFS-S)用于检测地表水中甲醛尚存准确度不足问题,通过筛选合适的参比波长段,使SAC-LFS-S法准确度进一步提高。以试剂空白和浊度梯度地表水样品的检测结果及方法检出限为主要筛选对象,得到425～435、420～435、420～440、415～440、415～445、410～445、415～450、410～450、455～495、410～455、405～455、450～500 nm等共12个合适的测定波长段;再选择试剂空白结果较低、批间重复性较好的450～500 nm测定波长段,筛选参比波长段(455～465、480～495、450～490 nm共3个)。结果表明:优化后SAC-LFS-S法线性范围为0. 100～3. 00 mg/L,方法检出限为0. 025～0. 033 mg/L;优化前、后方法测得部分地表水样品结果分别为有检出和未检出,回收率为73. 4%～108. 8%,后者与无亮黄色化合物产生的实验现象更吻合。经参比波长段校正的SAC-LFS-S法具有更高的准确度,非常适用于地表水中甲醛的直接测定。     

河南信阳市近62年来极端气温变化特征及周期分析

通过对河南省信阳市每日气温资料的搜集和整理,运用线性拟合及累积距平、Morlet复数小波等方法对WMO发布的10种极端气温指数进行了计算和分析。研究了信阳地区近62年来极端气温变化特征及周期性。结果表明,近62年来信阳地区的极端最高气温几乎没有变化,极端最低气温在波动变化中有小幅上升趋势,夏日、热夜、暖夜天数呈现波动上升,冰日、霜日、冷夜、冷日天数呈下降趋势。极端最高气温、极端最低气温、冷夜、暖夜、冷日、暖日都存在35 a左右的周期。夏日、冰日、热夜、霜日存在37 a左右周期。冰日的变化存在着5个左右的周期,极端最低气温、冷日与冷夜的变化存在4个左右的周期。其中极端最低气温、霜日、冰日、冷夜、冷日、暖夜都有5 a以下的周期。冷夜和暖夜、冷日和暖日、夏日和冰日以及热夜和霜夜存在负相关的关系,其中冷夜和暖夜以及热夜和霜日的变化幅度较大,它们之间有负相关关系。冷日和暖日以及夏日和冰日的变化较小,负相关的关系不太明显。总体来说,近60年来,信阳地区极端天气热指数呈上升趋势,极端天气冷指数呈下降趋势,整体气温呈现上升的趋势,其中近二十年气温上升更明显。     

辽宁阜新煤矿生态环境动态演变的预测

通过对影响煤矿生态质量16个指标因子的筛选,初步建立自然环境、生态环境及社会经济三维体系下由年开采量等7个指标组成的煤矿生态环境质量预测指标体系;根据2003年至2012年阜新煤矿生态环境指标因子环境统计数据,采用数值拟合得出埋藏深度、地面塌陷面积/开采面积、煤尘爆炸指数、矿区居民人均GDP及矿区经济贡献率5个指标因子的Quadratic模型;优化建立煤矿生态环境动态预测指标体系。应用煤矿生态环境指标因子预测模型对阜新煤矿2003年至2012年煤矿生态环境指标因子动态演变预测效果验证,验证结果表明Quadratic模型预测误差相对较小,煤尘爆炸指数指标因子的预测拟合曲线相关系数最高(R2=0.967 26)。最后应用Quadratic模型对2013年阜新煤矿矿区生态环境指标因子进行预测,并结合矿区实际给出预测模型的适用性。     

Phosphate rock production and depletion: Regional disaggregated modeling and global implications

Numerous recent studies discuss phosphate rock extraction, and some even propose that a peak in production could be reached in coming decades. This would have great consequences as phosphate rock based fertilizers are irreplaceable in modern agriculture. Studies suggesting an impending peak commonly use curve fitting models where mathematical functions are fitted to historical world production data, while studies using other methods reach completely different results. Also, a sudden increase in global reserve estimates is commonly used to dismiss these warnings, and has somewhat altered the debate. The recent multiplication of estimated reserves is mostly based on an increase of the Moroccan reserve estimate, leading to Morocco currently making up most of the global reserves. This study models global phosphate rock production using a disaggregated curve fitting model based on the production in individual major producing countries, providing a somewhat different view than most studies, and show that the global trade of phosphate rock could be completely dependent on Morocco in the future. There are several different factors that can potentially limit global production and these factors should be considered for the individual producing countries. Society's total dependence on phosphate rock should be further investigated despite claims of large resource occurrences.     

Prediction of DOM removal of low specific UV absorbance surface waters using HPSEC combined with peak fitting

High performance size exclusion chromatography (HPSEC) is used in water quality research primarily to determine the molecular weight distribution of the dissolved organic matter (DOM), but by applying peak fitting to the chromatogram, this technique can also be used as a tool to model and predict DOM removal. Six low specific UV absorbance (SUVA) source waters were treated using coagulation with alum and both the source and treated water samples were analysed using HPSEC. By comparing the molecular weight profiles of the source and treated waters, it was established that several DOM components were not effectively removed by alum coagulation even after high dosage alum treatment. A peak-fitting technique was applied based on the concept of linking the character (molecular weight profile) of the recalcitrant organics in the treated water with those of the source water. This was then applied to predict DOM treatability by determining the areas of the peaks which were assigned to removable organics from the source water molecular weight profile after peak fitting, and this technique quantified the removable and non-removable organics. The prediction was compared with the actual dissolved organic carbon (DOC) removal determined from jar testing and showed good agreement, with variance between 2% and 10%. This confirmed that this prediction approach, which was originally developed for high SUVA waters, can also be applied successfully to predict DOC removal in low SUVA waters.     

城市化与城市生态化是一个过程的两个方面

城市化必须同时伴随着城市生态化,或者说城市化和城市生态化是一个过程的两个方面而不是两个过程。工业革命以来,世界的城市化进程已经成为一个不争的事实,然而19世纪前城市化过程往往是只注重城市化而忽视生态化,甚至以牺牲生态来实现城市化,以致城市变成了生态的对立物。严峻的城市环境迫使人们反思以往城市建设模式和理念,上世纪70年代生态城市理念的提出,使人们有可能从城市生态化的视角来审视城市化,把城市化和城市生态化统一起来。这具有极大的理论和实践意义。