A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

基于AHP-熵权法的基层地震科普能力评价*

为提高基层地震科普评价工作的客观性和精准性，根据“环境-投入-产出-效果”的评价框架，建立涵盖保障能力、队伍能力、设施能力、产出能力、活动能力5类26项指标的基层地震科普能力评价指标体系，选用AHP-熵权法计算指标的组合权重；以天津为例进行验证，并提出相关工作建议。结果表明:建立的评价模型对于开展定量化的区域基层地震科普能力评价具有较强的参考价值，评价结果与实际情况基本相符；天津市基层地震科普在硬件建设方面取得较好成效，但整体能力依然偏弱，16个区平均得分仅为0.344 8；发展不平衡、软实力不足是制约当前发展最重要的2个因素；提出相关的工作建议可为优化基层科普工作布局、提高工作实效提供有益参考。     

Determination of emergency assembly point for industrial accidents with AHP analysis

Major industrial accidents, which are a type of technological disaster, are very important due to the security risks and financial damages that threaten the environment and human health in today's industrialization. In this study, it was aimed to propose an approach that will guide the decision makers to choose the emergency assembly point that should be in the distance or shelter where the employees will be not affected by the negative consequences of emergencies within the scope of the obligation of industrial establishments preparing an internal emergency plan for major industrial accidents. For this purpose, in the first stage, modelling studies were carried out with ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) Software over possible accident scenarios in an industrial establishment containing different types and amounts of hazardous chemicals. As a result of modelling studies, possible toxic emissions, fire and explosion effect distances and threat zones for the industrial establishment were obtained. In the second stage, the weights of the main and sub-selection criteria to be used in determining the assembly point were calculated. This stage was carried out based on the comparison data obtained as a result of the questionnaire applied to professionals with the help of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, which is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods. In the last stage, three candidate points were selected considering the physical effect areas determined in the first stage in the boundaries of the establishment, where the employees were evaluated to be affected the minimum from the negative consequences of industrial accidents. These candidate points were evaluated again with the AHP method on the basis of the sub-criteria whose relative weights were determined in the second stage and a selection was made. As a result, an approach that provides the solution of our problem was obtained.     

层次分析法在重庆某县地质灾害危险性评价中的应用

文章针对重庆市某县地质环境条件、发育特征等特性,选取了地层岩性、斜坡结构类型、坡度、坡高、降雨量、结构面、人类工程活动等7个因素作为地质灾害危险性评价因子,通过层次分析法确定评价因子权重,并采用专家系统法赋值,建立了该县地质灾害危险性评价模型。通过划分评价单元及利用危险性评价模型,将该县地质灾害危险性分为危险性大区、危险性中等区和危险性小区。研究成果对相似地区地质灾害危险性的划分也提供了一定的借鉴意义。     

基于AHP法的大盘山国家级自然保护区生态质量评价研究

大盘山保护区是目前中国唯一以野生药用植物种质资源及其生境为核心保护对象的国家级自然保护区.根据保护区类型和自然保护区生态评价指标体系,以生物多样性保护、景观生态改善、科研教育价值、生态旅游价值作为准则层,选择多样性、稀有性、脆弱性、自然性、典型性、面积适宜性、人类干扰作为评价层指标,运用层次分析法(AHP)进行保护区自然生态评价.评价结果:综合评价指数达0.778 4,说明大盘山保护区目前整体生态质量较好,保护价值较高,属于优先保护区域.     

我国生物质气化发电行业综合风险评价

针对我国生物质气化发电行业的现状,总结诸多风险的影响因素,建立了我国生物质气化发电行业综合风险评价体系。该评价体系主要包括5个一级风险影响因素:市场风险、技术风险、安全风险、管理风险、环境风险,每个一级影响因素包括4个二级风险影响因素。由层次分析法获得各个一级影响因素和二级影响因素的权重值,根据所构建的评价集和评分标准,结合模糊综合评价法对我国生物质气化发电行业现状的综合风险等级做定量定性分析。综合风险评价研究结果表明,生物质气化发电行业处于"较高"的风险等级,与实际情况相符。综合风险评价体系的构建合理,所建立的评价方法以及相应对策分析可为决策者提供参考依据。     

Loss prevention in turnaround maintenance projects by selecting contractors based on safety criteria using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

Turnaround maintenance (TAM) is a usual plant shutdown that is done by process industries to perform asset inspections, repairs, and overhauls. TAM engineering projects are needed on a periodic basis to optimize a plant's performance. Process industrial plants usually don't have enough in-house manpower to carry out needed TAM jobs; it is not uncommon for a process industrial plant to outsource its TAM manpower supply to external contractors. This will create a peculiar management challenge regarding how to assure orientation of safety practices for the newly hired labor. Although accidents during process plant shutdowns may have severe consequences, the safety management systems in place for many companies only cover normal operations and few explicitly address TAM projects. Usually, contractors are evaluated from a safety perspective after handling the project by monitoring safety indicators such as number of injuries, incidents, etc. This paper emphasizes safety attributes to be included in selecting contractors at the bidding stage to assure loss prevention and better safety orientation during TAM implementation. The paper starts with reviewing TAM literature and defining main needed safety attributes to prequalify contractors. It develops an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model that is applied to rank TAM contractors' selection. A case study is presented for a petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia to demonstrate the AHP model.     

高速公路安全水平仿真分析

为深入研究高速公路安全系统,用系统动力学(SD)方法分析驾驶员、车辆、道路、应急救援等组成要素以及环境、管理等影响因素之间的关系,建立高速公路安全系统因果关系模型和存量流量模型。用层次分析法(AHP)确定各影响因素的权重。以三福高速公路为例,用Vensim软件模拟高速公路运营期间系统安全的变化情况。结果表明,在该高速公路运营期间,系统安全与车辆安全度呈先上升后下降的趋势、道路安全度呈下降趋势、驾驶员安全度与应急救援能力呈上升趋势。通过与实际数据对比,验证了模型的有效性。     

贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型研究

为了实现重大危险源分级监管,基于风险管理理论,建立贮罐类重大危险源定性三维分级模型和风险定量分级模型。提出风险评价敏感性因素,选取可能性影响因素、严重性影响因素、敏感性影响因素3类风险评价指标。使用层次分析法(AHP)计算贮罐风险分级指标权重。根据风险可接受准则,将贮罐类重大危险源风险等级划分为4级,实现基于三维风险模型的贮罐类重大危险源快速分级。结果表明:用贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型,通过简单数学模型计算贮罐风险值,能为企业提供风险分级标准,有助于实现政府对贮罐类重大危险源分级监管。     

Selection and integration of environmental impacts in the Danish transport infrastructure assessment process

Transport projects have numerous consequences for the environment, society and economy, and thus an EU Directive has stated a number of impacts that need to be assessed prior to any major intervention. This paper is set in a Danish context where the EU requirements have been adopted in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) regulation along with national requirements. In recent years, however, the EIAs have been criticised for an inconsistent inclusion of impacts and unclear assessment process. A selection of EIAs is for this reason reviewed and compared to the EU Directive and corresponding works in Sweden and the UK to identify potential opportunities for improvements. From the literature study, an overview table with all potential relevant impacts for transport projects is set up to assist the EIA process. For the sake of simplicity and transparency, the impacts selected from this table should, however, be further reduced in number to ensure that only the most important impacts are included in the process. To further increase simplicity and transparency in the EIA process, a novel framework for assessing different types of impacts is proposed. In this framework, a comprehensive decision support tool involving stakeholders is in focus. The framework is supplemented with a procedure for generating objectives and presenting results in an appropriate way to the many stakeholders involved. The impacts overview table and the assessment techniques are applied to a case study to illustrate the process, and finally, conclusions and perspectives for future work within the field are set out.