A novel driver hazard perception sensitivity model based on drivers’ characteristics: A simulator study

Objective: Considering the high annual number of fatal driving accidents in Iran, any approach for reducing the number or severity of driving accidents is a positive step toward decreasing accident-related losses. Accidents can often be avoided by a timely reaction of the driver. One of the steps before reacting to a hazard is perception. Some driver characteristics may affect road hazard perception. In this research, it was assumed that various driver characteristics, including demographic characteristics and cognitive characteristics, have an impact on driver perception.

Methods: The driving simulator used in this research provides various scenarios; for example, passing a pedestrian or animal across the road or placing fixed objects in a 2-lane separated rural road for 2 groups of experienced and inexperienced drivers under day and night lighting conditions. The go/no-go test was carried out in order to assess drivers’ attention to driving tasks and inhibitory control. A structural equation model (SEM) was used to estimate the relation between driver characteristics and sensitivity to road hazard perception. A new hazard perception index was proposed based on the time intervals in the hazard vulnerability.

Results: The results show that the most effective variables in the analysis of sensitivity to hazard perception are driving experience (in kilometers) during the last 3 years and road lighting conditions. Moreover, hazard perception sensitivity was improved by better inhibitory control, selective attention, and decision making, more carefulness, the average amount of daily sleep, and marital status.

Conclusion: The results of this research may be useful in educating and advertising programs. It also could enhance sensitivity to perception of hazards such as pedestrians, animals, and fixed obstacles among young and novice drivers.     

天津市地表水体与沉积物中7种高关注酚类化合物的污染特征与生态风险分析

为探究地表水体与沉积物中酚类化合物的污染分布特征和生态风险,选择天津市3个水源地与6条主要河流,采集了26个地表水样与6个沉积物样品,利用固相萃取与超声萃取、高效液相色谱-串联质谱法(HPLC-MS/MS)测定了水样及沉积物中1-萘酚(1-naphthol)、壬基酚(nonylphenol, NP)、双酚A(bisphenol A, BPA)、2-苯基苯酚(biphenyl-2-ol)、3,4-二氯酚(3,4-dichlorophenol)、四溴双酚A(tetrabromobisphenol A, TBBPA)和对叔丁基苯酚(p-tert-butylphenol, PTBP)等7种高关注酚类化合物的浓度水平,并应用物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distribution, SSD)法和熵值法(ecological risk quotient, RQ)评估7种酚类化合物水环境和沉积物的生态风险。结果表明,地表水样中7种酚类化合物均全部检出;其中壬基酚的检出浓度最高,其次为四溴双酚A、对叔丁基苯酚、1-萘酚、2-苯基苯酚、3,4-二氯酚和双酚A。沉积物中酚类化合物的污染分布规律与水样相似,除双酚A外的目标物全部检出。其中,壬基酚浓度比其他物质浓度高2个数量级。风险评估结果显示,壬基酚对水环境与沉积物存在不可接受的风险;而四溴双酚A、对叔丁基苯酚、1-萘酚、2-苯基苯酚、3,4-二氯酚和双酚A则对环境具有较低风险或者存在一定的风险。     

Quantitative method to determine the regional drinking water odorant regulation goals based on odor sensitivity distribution：Illustrated using 2-MIB

Taste and odor （T/O） in drinking water often cause consumer complaints and are thus regulated in many countries. However, people in different regions may exhibit different sensitivities toward WO. This study proposed a method to determine the regional drinking water odorant regulation goals （ORGs） based on the odor sensitivity distribution of the local population. The distribution of odor sensitivity to 2-methylisobomeol （2-MIB） by the local population in Beijing, China was revealed by using a normal distribution function/model to describe the odor complaint response to a 2-MIB episode in 2005, and a 2-MIB concentration of 12.9 ng/L and FPA （flavor profile analysis） intensity of 2.5 was found to be the critical point to cause odor complaints. Thus the Beijing ORG for 2-MIB was determined to be 12.9 ng/L. Based on the assumption that the local FPA panel can represent the local population in terms of sensitivity to odor, and that the critical FPA intensity causing odor complaints was 2.5, this study tried to determine the ORGs for seven other cities of China by performing FPA tests using an FPA panel from the corresponding city. ORG values between 12.9 and 31.6 ng/L were determined, showing that a unified ORG may not be suitable for drinking water odor regulations. This study presents a novel approach for setting drinking water odor regulations.     

安徽省土地利用变化下的生态敏感性时空规律

土地利用变化过程中生态敏感性的研究有利于土地利用的科学管理和健康长效的城市化发展。选择安徽省为研究区域,通过分析土地利用变化对生态系统的敏感性的影响机制,构建出基于弹性概念的生态敏感性指数模型,并利用2002~2011年安徽省的土地利用变更数据,对其10年的生态敏感性的时空变化规律进行研究。结果表明:(1)2002~2011年,安徽省土地利用综合强度由2.26增加到2.49,生态服务价值由2.84×10¹²元减少到2.75×10¹²元,两者呈现出很强的负相关,且安徽省17个地级市的土地利用综合强度与生态服务价值也均呈现负相关关系;(2)安徽省土地利用变化下的生态敏感性指数由2003年的2.26上升到2011年的2.49,在研究期内均属于低敏感性,表明安徽省整个生态系统受其土地利用变化的影响程度不是很强烈,能够适应目前城市化发展的速度和强度;(3)安徽省由2003年的16个生态系统低敏感或不敏感市(占全省总面积的92.97%)减少到2011年的12个低敏感市(占全省总面积的67.06%),表明人类活动对生态系统已经造成了一定的影响。     

应用概率物种敏感度分布法研究太湖重金属水生生物水质基准

目前广泛使用的水质基准推导方法—物种敏感度分布法存在曲线拟合模型不确定、曲线拟合效果不佳、种内差异欠考虑、基准值不准确等诸多问题,概率物种敏感度分布法可有效解决上述问题。应用概率物种敏感度分布法构建了太湖水体中5种重金属Ag、Pb、Cd、Hg和Zn的概率物种敏感度分布曲线,在此基础上得到了保护水生生物的急性水质基准分别为1.079μg·L~(-1)、637.973μg·L~(-1)、19.465μg·L~(-1)、8.729μg·L~(-1)和105.506μg·L~(-1),慢性水质基准分别为0.108μg·L~(-1)、63.797μg·L~(-1)、1.947μg·L~(-1)、2.340μg·L~(-1)和52.753μg·L~(-1);不同类群间生物对重金属的敏感度存在差异,不同重金属对同一类群生物的毒性也存在差异;通过与国内外已有的重金属水质基准值比较,发现水质基准具有明显的区域性,目前基于国外水质基准或我国整体水域特点来制定的太湖水质标准,往往造成对太湖水生生物欠保护或过保护的状况。     

SRHSC梁主要设计参数损伤敏感度分析

以型钢高强混凝土(SRHSC)梁为研究对象,结合SRHSC梁受力机理及承载能力的试验研究成果,提出了极限状态下的承载能力是评价梁力学性能的关键指标,将损伤前后梁正截面抗弯承载力之比和斜截面抗剪承载力之比的均值作为自变量,给出了SRHSC梁损伤表征函数,并借助"预定损伤法",揭示了主要设计参数对SRHSC梁损伤演化的影响规律。研究成果将为建立地震激励下SRHSC框架结构楼层损伤模型提供理论和数据支持。     

落石冲击作用下架设油气管道响应分析

针对影响油气管道安全运营的落石冲击问题,基于弹塑性力学、Cowper-Symonds本构模型和有限元方法,建立了球形落石冲击油气管道的计算模型,对管道动态响应过程进行了数值模拟。对冲击速度、落石半径、管道内压力和落石冲击位置进行了参数敏感性分析,研究了各参数对管道冲击变形的影响规律。结果表明:落石的冲击能量主要用于管道塑性变形;冲击过程中,落石与管道的接触区域由初始的椭圆斑逐渐变成了椭圆环;管道塑性变形随着冲击速度和落石半径的增大而增大,随内压和落石偏移度的增大而减小。该研究工作为油气管道的安全评价及防护工程的设计提供了参考依据,对保障油气安全运输具有重要的工程意义。     

Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.     

土壤污染物的生态毒理效应和风险评估研究进展

环境生态风险评估（ERA）流程已经被纳入全球环境政策中，既用于规范新化学物质的授权和营销（前瞻性环境生态风险评估），也用于评估潜在的污染场地（回顾性环境生态风险评估）。将土壤生态毒理学应用于风险评估，能阐明有毒物质对土壤生态系统中生命有机体的危害程度与范围。笔者主要介绍了应用评估因子法和物种敏感度分布法对基于效应数据进行的外推与估算，并综述了欧美等主要国家和地区的土壤生态风险评估框架、相关法律法规及其实施情况等，为中国开展土壤污染物生态毒理效应和风险评估等相关研究提供参考。     

Effect of pyrolysis and oxidation characteristics on lauric acid and stearic acid dust explosion hazards

The effect of pyrolysis and oxidation characteristics on the explosion sensitivity and severity parameters, including the minimum ignition energy MIE, minimum ignition temperature MIT, minimum explosion concentration MEC, maximum explosion pressure P_max, maximum rate of pressure rise (dP/dt)_max and deflagration index K_st, of lauric acid and stearic acid dust clouds was experimentally investigated. A synchronous thermal analyser was used to test the particle thermal characteristics. The functional test apparatuses including the 1.2 L Hartmann-tube apparatus, modified Godbert-Greenwald furnace, and 20 L explosion apparatus were used to test the explosion parameters. The results indicated that the rapid and slow weight loss processes of lauric acid dust followed a one-dimensional diffusion model (D1 model) and a 1.5 order chemical reaction model (F1.5 model), respectively. In addition, the rapid and slow weight loss processes of stearic acid followed a 1.5 order chemical reaction model (F1.5 model) and a three-dimensional diffusion model (D3 model), respectively, and the corresponding average apparent activation energy E and pre-exponential factor A were larger than those of lauric acid. The stearic acid dust explosion had higher values of MIE and MIT, which were mainly dependent on the higher pyrolysis and oxidation temperatures and the larger apparent activation energy E determining the slower rate of chemical bond breakage during pyrolysis and oxidation. In contrast, the lauric acid dust explosion had a higher MEC related to a smaller pre-exponential factor A with a lower amount of released reaction heat and a lower heat release rate during pyrolysis and oxidation. Additionally, due to the competition regime of the higher oxidation reaction heat release and greater consumption of oxygen during explosion, the explosion pressure P_m of the stearic acid dust was larger in low concentration ranges and decayed to an even smaller pressure than with lauric acid when the concentration exceeded 500 g/m³. The rate of explosion pressure rise (dP/dt)_m of the stearic acid dust was always larger in the experimental concentration range. The stearic acid dust explosion possessed a higher P_max, (dP/dt)_max and K_st mainly because of a larger pre-exponential factor A related to more active sites participating in the pyrolysis and oxidation reaction. Consequently, the active chemical reaction occurred more violently, and the temperature and overpressure rose faster, indicating a higher explosion hazard class for stearic acid dust.