京津冀地区一次污染过程的星载地基激光雷达联合观测分析

针对2018年3月9—15日京津冀地区的一次空气重污染过程,进行了基于地基颗粒物激光雷达组网的星载-地基联合观测分析。颗粒物激光雷达观测到污染前期为局地污染累积过程,中期有明显的污染物区域传输过程,北京受太行山沿线城市污染输送影响较大。风廓线激光雷达观测结果表明:此次污染过程近地面主要为偏南风且风力较弱,冷空气到来时风向转为较强东北风,导致污染消散。微波辐射计观测到保定在污染过程中出现持续6 d的逆温层,同时在污染过程中近地面相对湿度较高,逆温层被打破后污染开始消散。在污染过程的各个阶段中,污染团的空间分布与变化特征均被很好地反映出来,可见地天联合观测对污染物的累积与输送研究有较大的意义,能对京津冀及周边地区的大气污染联防联控提供有力支持。     

Spatial and Seasonal Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous U.S.

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.     

Mitigating Impact of Devils Lake Flooding on the Sheyenne River Sulfate Concentration

Devils Lake is a terminal lake located in northeast North Dakota. Because of its glacial origin and accumulated salts from evaporation, the lake has a high concentration of sulfate compared to the surrounding water bodies. From 1993 to 2011, Devils Lake water levels rose by ~10 m, which flooded surrounding communities and increased the chance of an overspill to the Sheyenne River. To control the flooding, the State of North Dakota constructed two outlets to pump the lake water to the river. However, the pumped water has raised concerns about of water quality degradation and potential flooding risk of the Sheyenne River. To investigate these perceived impacts, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was developed for the Sheyenne River and it was linked to a coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2 model that was developed for Devils Lake in a previous study. While the current outlet schedule has attempted to maintain the total river discharge within the confines of a two‐year flood (36 m³/s), our simulation from 2012 to 2018 revealed that the diversion increased the Sheyenne River sulfate concentration from an average of 125 to >750 mg/L. Furthermore, a conceptual optimization model was developed with a goal of better preserving the water quality of the Sheyenne River while effectively mitigating the flooding of Devils Lake. The optimal solution provides a “win–win” outlet management that maintains the efficiency of the outlets while reducing the Sheyenne River sulfate concentration to ≤600 mg/L.     

A new leak location method based on leakage acoustic waves for oil and gas pipelines

In order to study a new leak detection and location method for oil and natural gas pipelines based on acoustic waves, the propagation model is established and modified. Firstly, the propagation law in theory is obtained by analyzing the damping impact factors which cause the attenuation. Then, the dominant-energy frequency bands of leakage acoustic waves are obtained through experiments by wavelet transform analysis. Thirdly, the actual propagation model is modified by the correction factor based on the dominant-energy frequency bands. Then a new leak detection and location method is proposed based on the propagation law which is validated by the experiments for oil pipelines. Finally, the conclusions and the method are applied to the gas pipelines in experiments. The results indicate: the modified propagation model can be established by the experimental method; the new leak location method is effective and can be applied to both oil and gas pipelines and it has advantages over the traditional location method based on the velocity and the time difference. Conclusions can be drawn that the new leak detection and location method can effectively and accurately detect and locate the leakages in oil and natural gas pipelines.     

遥感技术在水生态环境管理的应用与前景

随着遥感数据源的不断丰富,遥感技术不断提高,可以解决越来越多的水环境问题。指出了当前水生态环境管理方面的主要需求,结合目前遥感技术的发展,对国内外的水环境遥感研究进展进行综述。以湖泊富营养化监测与评估、核电站温排水遥感监测及城市黑臭水体遥感监测为案例,具体阐述遥感在水环境管理中的应用方法及成效。未来水生态环境管理发展趋势将以水污染防治为主向水污染防治和水生态修复与保护并重发展。基于此趋势,提出遥感在水生态修复的应用潜力,利于更多地方部门积极有效应用遥感技术,解决水生态环境问题。     

Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

利用卫星遥感数据估算PM2.5浓度的应用研究进展

近年来,PM_(2.5)已成为中国大气污染的首要污染物,危害人体健康。为弥补地基监测站点在空间分布上的局限性,借助卫星遥感技术估算PM_(2.5)浓度已成为研究热点。文章总结了利用卫星估算PM_(2.5)浓度的各种研究方法,探讨了不同方法的优势和不足,指出不同方法对不同应用目的的选择性差异较大。提出,应针对不同应用目的选择相应的方法,从而取得满足各方面需求的研究成果,为未来PM_(2.5)浓度估算应用工作提供参考。     

A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

珠江口表层水中多环芳烃的分布特征及健康风险评估

分别于2015年2、5、8、11月在珠江八大入海口采集表层水体样品,应用固相萃取富集法对该区域表层水体中16种USEPA优控多环芳烃(PAHs)的时空分布特征进行分析,并利用终生致癌风险增量模型(ILCR)对该区域的饮水健康风险进行评价。结果表明:珠江口4个季度所采集的水样中,∑15PAHs的浓度范围为18.0~50.3 ng/L,含量处于中等水平。其中7种强致癌性∑7PAHs的浓度范围为1.53~3.73 ng/L,占∑15PAHs的5.89%~11.1%,∑15PAHs和∑7PAHs在枯水期(2、11月)样品中明显高于丰水期(5、8月)。就组成特征而言,各采样点PAHs以3、4环为主。珠江口表层水中非致癌类PAHs的危害商数值为0.99×10~(-5)~2.73×10~(-5),远低于USEPA规定的阈值(1);致癌类PAHs产生的健康风险为6.50×10~(-8)~2.37×10~(-7),其中Ba P导致的饮水途径健康风险最高,所有点位致癌类PAHs的健康风险均低于USEPA推荐的对致癌物质最大可接受风险水平(10~(-6)),表明珠江口表层水中PAHs尚不具备严重的致癌风险,但是仍然存在潜在的健康风险,需要重点控制和管理。     

Fluoride removal and its impact on oral health in Sri Lanka's dry zone: Discussion and recommendation

Fifty percent of the dry zone areas in Sri Lanka have fluoride levels above 1 ppm. This paper discusses the ground conditions and recommends an appropriate range of fluoride in drinking water which can support preventive practices for improving the oral health of children 8-years old and younger. In efforts to address the Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown etiology (CKDU), water treatment to reduce contaminant level in potable water has been implemented. Such treatment would also remove fluoride and has resulted in potable water with various fluoride levels, depending on concentrations in the raw water. While it is important to reduce fluoride levels, it is important to have appropriate residual levels for prevention of dental caries. It needs, however, to be noted fluoride in excess can cause dental fluorosis. In Sri Lanka's dry zone areas increasing prevalence of dental fluorosis with decreasing prevalence of dental caries has been noted. Consumption of tea and powdered milk could increase total intake of fluoride. Fluoridated toothpaste, when used properly, may, however, result in negligible intake of fluoride. Sri Lanka's hot tropical climate which results in substantial intake of fluids reinforces the need to consider reduction in water fluoride. Consideration of local studies and international standards indicate fluoride levels should be in the range of 0.225–0.500 ppm. In the range of 0.225–0.500 ppm, the prevalence of dental fluorosis and caries was only 14% and 8%, respectively, in an endemic district. When fluoride levels are above 0.500 ppm, the issue of dental fluorosis shall need to be addressed. When levels are below 0.225 ppm, oral health care services shall need to be directed at preventing dental caries.