我国区域空气污染治理效率及其影响机制——基于超效率SBM模型和门槛回归模型

随着人民对美好生活需求的日益增长,政府空气污染治理的效率问题日益得到重视。本文从地方政府空气污染治理效率及其影响因素的视角入手,以全国30个省份为研究对象,运用超效率SBM模型测算2003—2015年各省级区域的空气污染治理效率。在此基础上,运用门槛回归模型分析政府空气污染治理效率的影响机制。研究表明:①地区间空气污染治理效率差异性较为显著。中部、西部空气污染治理效率整体呈下降趋势。东部和东北地区空气污染治理效率则上升比较平稳。②政策规划、碳源、污染物排放和环境治理投入表现出双重门槛特征,其中碳源对空气污染治理效率影响显著,而以碳为首的能源消费结构则主要对中部和西部空气污染治理效率产生影响。落后地区政府应注重产业升级,财政上应对碳税等税目进行征收,产业上应鼓励企业创新,并对落后企业进行倒逼升级。     

施工组织正式网络结构特征对组织安全行为的影响关系研究

为提升建筑施工安全管理水平，探讨施工组织正式网络的结构特征对组织安全行为的影响关系。基于社会网络分析方法，引入安全沟通作为中介变量，建立施工组织正式网络结构特征、安全沟通和组织安全行为的假设模型。基于91个施工组织正式网络结构特征分析，使用多层回归分析方法检验假设模型。结果表明:网络密度、出度中心势和聚类系数均显著正向影响组织安全行为；中间中心势和平均路径长度均显著负向影响组织安全行为；入度中心势对组织安全行为影响不显著；安全沟通分别在出度中心势和中间中心势与组织安全行为的关系中起完全中介作用；安全沟通分别在密度、平均路径长度和聚类系数与组织安全行为的关系中起部分中介作用；安全沟通在入度中心势与组织安全行为的关系中未起到中介作用。     

“互联网+”智慧环保生态环境多元感知体系发展分析

在大数据技术以及信息化快速稳定持续发展的实践背景之下,"互联网+"智慧环保发展时代的悄然来临,使得对"互联网+"智慧环保多元感知体系的研究与发展工作,逐步被提升到了极其重要的地位。文章结合雄安新区生态环境智慧监测体系建设项目,展开了简要的阐释分析。     

Factors associated with driving under the influence of alcohol

Objective: This study examined the risk factors of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) among drivers of specific vehicle categories (DSC). On the basis of this research, the variables related to DUI and involvement in traffic crashes were defined. The analysis was conducted for car drivers, bicyclists, motorcyclists, bus drivers, and truck drivers.

Method: The research sample included drivers involved in traffic crashes on the territory of Serbia in 2016 (60,666). Two types of analyses were conducted in this study. Logistic regression established the correlation between DUI and DSC and the The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Multi-criteria decision making) method was applied to consider the scoring and explore the potential for the prevalence of DUI on the basis of 2 data sets (DUI and non DUI).

Results: The study results showed that driver error and male drivers were the 2 most significant risk factors for DUI, with the highest scores and potential for prevalence. The nonuse of restraint systems, driver experience, and driver age are the factors with a significant prediction of involvement in an accident and an insignificant prediction of DUI.

Conclusions: Following the development of the logistic prediction models for DUI drivers, testing of the model was conducted for 3 control driver groups: Car, motorcycle, and bicycle. The prediction model with a probability greater than 50% showed that 77% of car drivers were under the influence of alcohol. Similarly, the prediction percentage for motorcyclists and bicyclists amounted to 71 and 67%, respectively. The recommendation of the study is that drivers whose DUI probability is above 50% should be potentially suspected of DUI. The results of this study can help to understand the problem of DUI among specific driver categories and detect DUI drivers, with the aim of creating successful traffic safety policy.     

基于GM-SVR的小样本条件下化工设备可靠性预测

为了准确预测化工设备可靠性趋势，针对化工设备失效寿命数据为小样本的情形，基于灰色估计法与支持向量回归机在小样本数据处理中的优势，建立了失效寿命时间服从三参数威布尔分布的化工设备可靠性模型；结合GM（1，1）和SVR对模型进行参数估计，在压缩机可靠性分析中进行了实例应用，对比分析了最小二乘法、灰色估计法和GM-SVR的估计效果。研究结果表明:GM-SVR对威布尔分布参数的估计精度明显优于最小二乘法和灰色估计法，可以有效地应用于化工设备失效数据为小样本时的可靠性预测。     

不同火灾规模下隧道水幕线性喷水强度的研究

为了探究火源功率和水幕线性喷水强度对烟气特征参数和水幕阻烟隔热能力的影响，以全尺寸隧道为研究对象，采用FDS数值模拟方法，还原验证了前人使用的小尺寸模型，研究了20组工况下烟气特征参数变化的规律。研究结果表明:根据相似性原理还原后的全尺寸模型在相同工况下的模拟结果与小尺寸实验基本一致；水幕系统降低遮光率的效果随线性喷水强度增加而增强，当线性喷水强度增至一定程度时，遮光率和隔热效率无明显变化；对于中、大型规模火灾，水幕有效作用时间出现减少的情况；火源功率为5，20，30 MW的小、中、大规模的隧道火灾，综合考虑经济性和水幕效果，建议分别选择水幕的线性喷水强度为8，14，16 L/(s瘙
簚m)。     

不同类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律研究

为探究各类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律，为飞行员日常工作管理提供依据，选取某航空公司200名飞行员进行压力测试，并调取其近6 a的飞机品质(QAR)数据，通过相关性分析和线性回归分析将飞行员压力数据与其QAR数据进行对比分析，探究飞行员压力对飞行安全绩效的影响规律。研究结果表明:工作负荷压力、家庭压力、人际关系压力和组织管理压力会显著负向影响飞行员安全绩效；角色压力和专业发展压力会显著正向影响飞行员安全绩效。     

火灾发生率空间分异及影响因素研究

为了探究我国火灾空间聚集特征与影响因素的空间异质性，采用全局莫兰指数、局部莫兰指数、逐步回归模型、地理加权回归模型、地理探测器方法对我国地级市单元进行研究。研究结果表明:我国火灾发生率具有显著的聚集性；我国火灾发生率较低的“冷点”区域有1个，火灾发生率较高的“热点”区域有4个；人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、人口密度、年平均气温4 个因素的影响效应具有空间异质性。人均GDP与火灾发生率为正相关，另外3影响因素对火灾发生率的作用表现出正负2种相关关系；2因素交互作用要比单因素作用于火灾发生率时影响力更显著，各影响因素的交互作用类型有非线性增强型和双因子增强型2种。     

Spatial and Seasonal Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous U.S.

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.     

高效液相色谱-三重四级杆/复合线性离子阱质谱法测定饮用水中22种邻苯二甲酸酯

建立了一种同时测定饮用水中22种邻苯二甲酸酯(PAEs)的高效液相色谱-三重四级杆/复合线性离子阱质谱方法:饮用水样品经针头过滤器过滤,选用Biphenyl液相色谱柱进行分离,以含0.1%甲酸的水溶液和含0.1%甲酸的甲醇溶液为流动相,电离模式为电喷雾正离子,选用多反应监测触发增强子离子扫描模式进行检测。结果表明,22种PAEs的灵敏度良好,定量限为0.001～0.1 μg/L。配制浓度为0.1～100.0 μg/L的混标溶液进行进样分析,分析结果显示,22种PAEs在该范围内的线性关系良好,相关系数均大于0.995,方法的平均回收率为82.9%～108.9%,相对标准偏差为0.9%～11.2%。同时,使用增强子离子扫描谱图进行搜库匹配,定性准确性高。该方法适用于饮用水中PAEs的检测。