Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Conjoint analysis for environmental evaluation

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Conjoint analysis and the related choice-modelling methods have been used for many years in marketing research to evaluate consumer behaviour and preferences for different kinds of product attributes. Recently, the number of applications in environmental science and management has started to grow. Conjoint analysis is found in many different forms, and the environmental studies evaluated in this review display the same range of methods as in other fields. The key characteristic of all these methods is that trade-offs are evaluated by jointly considering a number of important attributes. MAIN FEATURES: This paper is a review of the literature on environmental applications of conjoint analysis and assesses in which environmental area conjoint analysis has been most successful. The method and the design of the studies are reviewed as well. RESULTS: A total of 84 studies were found, dealing with environmental issues that were evaluated by conjoint analysis. The studies concern agriculture, ecosystem management, energy, environmental evaluation, forestry, land management, pollution, products, recreation, environmental risk analysis and waste management. DISCUSSION: Choice experiments seem to have a comparatively stronger position in environmental studies than elsewhere. Most of the environmental applications are related to natural resource management. This is somewhat surprising, but a number of reports have appeared also on product evaluation, which could be a key application area in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to marketing and transportation, the number of environmental conjoint studies is rather small but increasing, and the method has proven to work effectively in eliciting preferences on environmental issues. In environmental issues, experimenters often use choice experiments, especially concerning ecosystem management and environmental evaluations. When it comes to evaluating preferences concerning agriculture, forestry, energy and products, a more traditional approach of conjoint analysis is favoured. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Two new areas of application are identified in this review--environmental communication and expert elicitation. Conjoint analysis can thus be developed into a useful instrument for environmental risk analysis and communication, both of which are necessary for an efficient approach to risk governance.     

The aggregation pheromone ofIps duplicatus and its role in competitive interactions withI. typographus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

Summary Ips duplicatus withI. typographus co-inhabiting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) would benefit from a pheromone blend distinct from that of the larger competitorI. typographus. GC-MS analysis showed thatI. duplicatus males feeding in the host produced ipsdienol (Id),cis-verbenol (cV),trans-verbenol (tV), myrtenol (Mt), andE-myrcenol (EM) and traces of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MB).I. duplicatus produced Id in approximately racemic form (48.9-54.5% (+)-(S)-isomer). The amounts of Id and EM released over a 9 day period had a maximum of 250 and 5 ng/h/male, respectively, on day 2. Exposure ofI. duplicatus males to myrcene and -pinene resulted in the production of small amounts of Id, cV, tV, Mt, andtrans-pinocarveol, but not of EM. In laboratory bioassays with walking beetles, the pheromone component Id alone was weakly attractive while EM was inactive, but in binary combination with Id strongly synergized attraction. A combination of EM and Id at a release rate equivalent to 100–200 males was more attractive in the field than 70 unmated males in a spruce log. The addition of myrcene ( a suggested pheromone precursor of Id) to Id did not enhance trap caches, while addition of EM increased catches > 10-fold. Subtracting EM from a blend of Id, EM, cV and MB drastically reduced trap catches while subtraction of cV or MB or both had no significant effect. Addition of EM over a wide concentration range to the synthetic pheromone ofI. typographus did not reduce the attraction of females of this species in the laboratory. A two-species pheromone interaction field test releasingI. typographus pheromone components (MB + cV) at 10–1000 male equivalents (ME) andI. duplicatus pheromone (Id + EM) at 0, 10–1000 ME in all possible combinations showed both positive intraspecific dose-response effects and an interspecific inhibition. Higher release rates of EM appeared to inhibitI. typographus, especially males. In a tree colonization model, the response of the two competing species to their respective pheromones show a good separation during the mass-attack with a small initial cross-attraction. It remains to be shown whether either of the two pheromone systems have in fact evolved in the present sympatry, or if they are an incidental effect of ancestry of these phylogenetically distantIps.     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Determining Ecoregions for Environmental and GMO Monitoring Networks

A representative environmental monitoring network at the regional scale cannot use raster-based or random sampling designs, but requires a stratified sampling procedure integrating different information layers, and it has to occur in ecologically differing homogeneous regions (ecoregions). These we have determined using a set of spatial strata with ecological variables which we analysed with classification and regression trees (CART). We present a framework for environmental monitoring, that covers different scales, and we transfer the framework to a potential GMO (genetically modified organisms) monitoring network. We use ecoregion and other environmental strata together with existing environmental monitoring networks to determine GMO monitoring sites more precisely.     

科学的挑战--重视成本效益,清洁波罗的海

波罗的海是世界上受人类活动影响最严重的海洋之一,虽然有减少向波罗的海排放营养物质的国际协议,但迄今为止采取的措施,既没有从根本上减少营养物质的排放,也没有促进环境的改善.部分原因可以归咎为缺少有关物理学、生物地球化学和生态特性之间大尺度关系和相互作用的知识,但是还缺少全流域范围的成本效益分析.错误的决策非常危险,例如,执行的减少排放的方案根本没有效果,或远远达不到成本效益.许多学科的研究者正面临着一个共同的挑战开发一个决策支持系统,作为整个波罗的海成本效益分析法的科学基础.研究项目海洋富营养化的研究(MARE)(http∥www.mare.su.se)正致力于这方面的研究.     

Chemical Composition and Acidity of Rain at the Gulf of Iskenderun,North-East Mediterranean

The purpose of the present work was to investigate the chemistry of rain in the Gulf of Iskenderun, North East Mediterranean, Turkey. The Gulf region has a large number of industries. Main industries existing in the region are iron and steel works, fertilizer plants, a cement plant, and several medium and mini size steel mills in addition to the international pipe line terminals. This study aims to apportion the local sources contributing to the overall pollution of the region. To this end a precipitation sampling program was started in January 2000, and over 48 precipitation samples were collected from each of 5 stations located at Iskenderun city center, Iskenderun industrial zone, Payas city center, the campus of Iskenderun Technical College and the campus of Mustafa Kemal University. Samples were analysed for pH, NO₃ ⁺, Cl^-. Ca, Al, Ba, Na, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Pb, Li, Mg, Mn, Ni, Zn, Fe, K. Concentrations of metal ions were determined by ICP-AES. NO₃ ^- ions and pH were determined by using NO₃ ^- selective electrode and pH meter, respectively.pH values of the collected samples at the industrial zone and at Payas city center, ranged between 5.02 and 7.38, respectively. NO₃ ^- and metal ions concentrations were highly variable. Concentrations of Ca and Fe ions were higher in the industrial zone and Payas city center. In the other three stations, concentrations of metal ions and NO₃ ^- ion were lower than that of industrial zone and the values of pH ranged between 6 and 7.4. The average pH values at Iskenderun Gulf showed that the precipitation was not acidic, because of the high concentration of Ca. The highest concentrations of Na and Cl ions were recorded in the University campus because the campus is located by the Mediterranean Sea.