Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Exposure to radiation from global system for mobile communications at 1,800 MHz significantly changes gene expression in rat hippocampus and cortex

We have earlier shown that radio frequency electromagnetic fields can cause significant leakage of albumin through the blood–brain barrier of exposed rats as compared to non-exposed rats, and also significant neuronal damage in rat brains several weeks after a 2 h exposure to a mobile phone, at 915 MHz with a global system for mobile communications (GSM) frequency modulation, at whole-body specific absorption rate values (SAR) of 200, 20, 2, and 0.2 mW/kg. We have now studied whether 6 h of exposure to the radiation from a GSM mobile test phone at 1,800 MHz (at a whole-body SAR-value of 13 mW/kg, corresponding to a brain SAR-value of 30 mW/kg) has an effect upon the gene expression pattern in rat brain cortex and hippocampus—areas where we have observed albumin leakage from capillaries into neurons and neuronal damage. Microarray analysis of 31,099 rat genes, including splicing variants, was performed in cortex and hippocampus of 8 Fischer 344 rats, 4 animals exposed to global system for mobile communications electromagnetic fields for 6 h in an anechoic chamber, one rat at a time, and 4 controls kept as long in the same anechoic chamber without exposure, also in this case one rat at a time. Gene ontology analysis (using the gene ontology categories biological processes, molecular functions, and cell components) of the differentially expressed genes of the exposed animals versus the control group revealed the following highly significant altered gene categories in both cortex and hippocampus: extracellular region, signal transducer activity, intrinsic to membrane, and integral to membrane. The fact that most of these categories are connected with membrane functions may have a relation to our earlier observation of albumin transport through brain capillaries.     

The aggregation pheromone ofIps duplicatus and its role in competitive interactions withI. typographus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

Summary Ips duplicatus withI. typographus co-inhabiting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) would benefit from a pheromone blend distinct from that of the larger competitorI. typographus. GC-MS analysis showed thatI. duplicatus males feeding in the host produced ipsdienol (Id),cis-verbenol (cV),trans-verbenol (tV), myrtenol (Mt), andE-myrcenol (EM) and traces of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MB).I. duplicatus produced Id in approximately racemic form (48.9-54.5% (+)-(S)-isomer). The amounts of Id and EM released over a 9 day period had a maximum of 250 and 5 ng/h/male, respectively, on day 2. Exposure ofI. duplicatus males to myrcene and -pinene resulted in the production of small amounts of Id, cV, tV, Mt, andtrans-pinocarveol, but not of EM. In laboratory bioassays with walking beetles, the pheromone component Id alone was weakly attractive while EM was inactive, but in binary combination with Id strongly synergized attraction. A combination of EM and Id at a release rate equivalent to 100–200 males was more attractive in the field than 70 unmated males in a spruce log. The addition of myrcene ( a suggested pheromone precursor of Id) to Id did not enhance trap caches, while addition of EM increased catches > 10-fold. Subtracting EM from a blend of Id, EM, cV and MB drastically reduced trap catches while subtraction of cV or MB or both had no significant effect. Addition of EM over a wide concentration range to the synthetic pheromone ofI. typographus did not reduce the attraction of females of this species in the laboratory. A two-species pheromone interaction field test releasingI. typographus pheromone components (MB + cV) at 10–1000 male equivalents (ME) andI. duplicatus pheromone (Id + EM) at 0, 10–1000 ME in all possible combinations showed both positive intraspecific dose-response effects and an interspecific inhibition. Higher release rates of EM appeared to inhibitI. typographus, especially males. In a tree colonization model, the response of the two competing species to their respective pheromones show a good separation during the mass-attack with a small initial cross-attraction. It remains to be shown whether either of the two pheromone systems have in fact evolved in the present sympatry, or if they are an incidental effect of ancestry of these phylogenetically distantIps.     

科学的挑战--重视成本效益,清洁波罗的海

波罗的海是世界上受人类活动影响最严重的海洋之一,虽然有减少向波罗的海排放营养物质的国际协议,但迄今为止采取的措施,既没有从根本上减少营养物质的排放,也没有促进环境的改善.部分原因可以归咎为缺少有关物理学、生物地球化学和生态特性之间大尺度关系和相互作用的知识,但是还缺少全流域范围的成本效益分析.错误的决策非常危险,例如,执行的减少排放的方案根本没有效果,或远远达不到成本效益.许多学科的研究者正面临着一个共同的挑战开发一个决策支持系统,作为整个波罗的海成本效益分析法的科学基础.研究项目海洋富营养化的研究(MARE)(http∥www.mare.su.se)正致力于这方面的研究.     

从富营养化状态中复原：减少对瑞典四大湖磷输入的经验

自20世纪60年代以来,人们一直在研究随着输入的减少韦特恩湖、维纳恩湖、梅拉伦湖以及哈马伦湖中磷(P)和氮(N)的浓度变化.在前两个水更新速度较慢的深水、贫营养湖中,自70年代以来磷输入的急剧减少只是造成较长一段时间内磷浓度的少量减小.同时在水团中出现了非有机氮的积累现象,本文对这一现象的可能原因进行了探讨.在后两个中等营养到高营养的湖中,哈马伦湖中的两个浅盆地由于沉积物释放的氮而显示出恢复较慢.这两个盆地以及梅拉伦湖中的两个盆地有氮缺乏现象,特别是在磷输入减少之前的数年中、而且表明存在固氮现象.在梅拉伦湖的两个盆地中,湖内磷浓度的恢复与用于湖泊从营养物污染中恢复的IMSA模型相比较预期的要好.在其他的5个湖泊/盆地中,20年之后的叶绿素浓度与那些模拟的情况相比类似.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Cropland changes in times of conflict,reconstruction, and economic development in Iraqi Kurdistan

The destruction of land and forced migration during the Anfal attacks against the Kurds in Iraq in the late 1980s has been reported to have severe consequences for agricultural development. A reconstruction program to aid people in returning to their lands was launched in 1991. To assess the agricultural situation in the Duhok governorate during the pre-Anfal (A), post-Anfal (B), reconstruction (C), and present (D) periods, we mapped winter crops by focusing on inter-annual variability in vegetation greenness, using satellite images. The results indicate a decrease in cultivated area between period A and B, and a small increase between period B and C. This supports reports of a decline in cultivated area related to the Anfal campaign, and indicates increased activity during the reconstruction program. Period D showed a potential recovery with a cropland area similar to period A.     

Determination of neonicotinoids in Estonian honey by liquid chromatography–electrospray mass spectrometry

The aim of the study was to provide a comprehensive overview of neonicotinoid pesticide residues in honey samples for a single country and compare the results with the import data for neonicotinoid pesticides. The levels of four neonicotinoid pesticides, namely thiamethoxam, imidacloprid, acetamiprid, and thiacloprid, were determined in 294 honey samples harvested from 2005 to 2013 from more than 200 locations in Estonia. For the analyzed honey samples, 27% contained thiacloprid, and its levels in all cases were below the maximum residue level set by the European Union. The other neonicotinoids were not detected. The proportion of thiacloprid-positive samples for different years correlates well with the data on thiacloprid imports into Estonia, indicating that honey contamination with neonicotinoids can be estimated based on the import data.     

A new THOR shoulder design: a comparison with volunteers, the Hybrid III, and THOR NT

OBJECTIVE: Since the shoulders are rarely seriously injured in frontal or oblique collisions, they have been given low priority in the development of frontal impact crash test dummies. The shoulder complex geometry and its kinematics are of vital importance for the overall dummy kinematics. The shoulder complex also influences the risk of the safety belt slipping off the shoulder in oblique forward collisions. The first aim of this study was to develop a new 50th percentile male THOR shoulder design, while the second was to compare the new shoulder, mounted on a THOR NT dummy, with volunteer, THOR NT, and Hybrid III range of motion and stiffness data. The third aim was to test the repeatability of the new shoulder during dynamic testing and to see how the design behaves with respect to belt slippage in a 45 degrees far-side collision. METHODS: The new 50th percentile THOR shoulder design was developed with the aid of a shell model of the seated University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) 50th percentile male with coordinates for joints and bony landmarks (Schneider et al., 1983). The new shoulder design has human-like bony landmarks for the acromion and coracoid processes. The clavicle curvature and length are also made similar to that of a male human, as is the range of motion in the anterior-posterior, superior-inferior, and medial-lateral directions. The new shoulder design was manufactured and tested under the same conditions that T?rnvall et al. (2005b) used to compare the shoulder range of motion for the volunteers, Hybrid III, and THOR Alpha. The new design was also tested in two dynamic test configurations: the first was a 0 degrees full-frontal test and the second was a 45 degrees far-side test. The dummy tests were conducted with an R-16 seat with a three-point belt, the Delta V was 27.0+/-0.5 km/h and the maximum peak acceleration was approximately 14.6+/-0.5 g for each test. RESULTS: A new shoulder design with geometry close to that of humans was developed to be retrofitted to the THOR NT dummy. The results showed that the range of motion for the new shoulder complex during static loading was larger by at least a factor of three, for the maximum load (200 N/arm), than that of either the Hybrid III or the THOR NT; this means it was more similar to the volunteers' range of motion. It was observed that the THOR NT with the new shoulder did not slide out of the shoulder belt during a far-side collision. The performance of the new shoulder was reasonably repeatable and stable during both the static tests and the sled tests. CONCLUSION: A new shoulder for the THOR NT has been designed and developed, and data from static range of motion tests and sled tests indicate that the new shoulder complex has the potential to function in a more human-like manner on the THOR dummy.