Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Osmoregulation, nutritional effects and buoyancy of marine larval fish: a bioassay for assessing density changes during the earliest life-history stages

It has been hypothesized that marine fish larvae in the advanced stages of starvation would show increased density (ρ = mass volume⁻¹) from water loss due to osmoregulation failure. Changes in larval buoyancy are currently attributed to swim bladder regulation and protein synthesis or catabolism. Osmoregulation-related changes in density is an alternative mechanism, the importance of which remains untested in the laboratory and the influence of which on vertical distributions is unknown. We provide evidence that loss of osmotic control is a plausible mechanism for increased density of larval cod (Gadus morhua L.). Furthermore, our results show that this mechanism is not restricted to larvae in the advanced stages of starvation. “Relative” larval densities are estimated using a modified density gradient. We use a gravimetric method to separate the effects of nutrition from osmoregulation failure. We assessed the importance of sampling strata on estimates of larval density. Proportional sampling within three depth strata (stratified sample) produced the least biased method for determining the “average” density of a population of larvae in laboratory culture. Larvae sampled from the bottom third of the culture tank were significantly more dense then those sampled from the surface. This was true for larvae of all ages. The average change in density from hatching till death from starvation for larvae sampled in the surface stratum was nominal (Δρ = 5.0 × 10⁻⁴ g cm⁻³), while the change for those sampled from the bottom stratum was large (Δρ = 3.8 × 10⁻³ g cm⁻³). These large density differences suggest that larvae sampled from the bottom stratum were either osmotically stressed or were facultatively changing their density via regulatory pathways. Preliminary observations suggest that vitality is lower amongst those larvae which are sampled near the bottom. The small change in average density of larvae sampled from the surface stratum was due to starvation. The density differences we observed between “osmotically stressed” and “starving” larvae could readily have been misconstrued as differences in feeding and growth experienced by individual larvae. The potential bias of increased density from osmoregulation failure must be considered as a factor in experimental designs developed to assess the effect of fed and starved treatments on buoyancy for larvae of all ages. The simple bioassay we describe may prove useful both as a means of assessing larval condition and as a mechanism for evaluating factors affecting larval vertical distributions in the field. Received: 13 January 1997 / Accepted: 3 February 1997     

Identifying high-yield low-emission pathways for the cereal production in South Asia

Increasing agricultural production to meet the growing demand for food whilst reducing agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is the major challenge under the changing climate. To develop long-term policies that address these challenges, strategies are needed to identify high-yield low-emission pathways for particular agricultural production systems. In this paper, we used bio-physical and socio-economic models to analyze the impact of different management practices on crop yield and emissions in two contrasting agricultural production systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of India. The result revealed the importance of considering both management and socio-economic factors in the development of high-yield low-emission pathways for cereal production systems. Nitrogen use rate and frequency of application, tillage and residue management and manure application significantly affected GHG emissions from the cereal systems. In addition, various socio-economic factors such as gender, level of education, training on climate change adaptation and mitigation and access to information significantly influenced the adoption of technologies contributing to high-yield low-emission pathways. We discussed the policy implications of these findings in the context of food security and climate change.     

Growth,food utilization and effect of social interaction in the European bass Dicentrarchus labrax

Fingerling and juvenile bass, Dicentrarchus labrax (L.) fed on filleted saithe, Gadus virens, exhibited much higher K ₁ energy and nitrogen utilization efficiencies (growth as % energy or nitrogen intake) than those fed on trout pellets or shore crabs, Carcinus maenas, although the efficiency declined during prolonged feeding. Mean organic absorption efficiency for saithe was 99.5% and was independent of food intake but the efficiency for pellets and crab declined with increasing food intake from 99 to 92%. For each diet the regression of relative growth rate on food intake was linear up to the regression of relative growth rate on food intake was linear up to the highest feeding level and independent of body weight, enabling construction of a simple model for food transformation. The regression coefficient (equivalent to K ₃, the ratio of growth to food consumed in excess of maintenance) for saithe was about 3 times that for pellets in terms of energy and twice that for pellets in terms of nitrogen. The more efficient utilization of saithe for growth and of pellets for maintenance were related to differences in their nutritional value. With each diet, K ₃ and maximum K ₁ for energy were about twice those for nitrogen. Social interaction had a significant effect on food utilization in juvenile bass. Isolated fish showed poor growth and mean K ₁ efficiency in comparison with bass in pairs or groups. K ₃ efficiency and mainternance requirement were similar in individuals and groups, but were significantly greater in pairs. These results are related to behavioural observeations and environmental stress, and the limitations of extrapolating the results of laboratory feeding experiments on fish to other situations is discussed.     

Population genetic structure and genetic diversity of three critically endangered <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pristis</Emphasis> sawfishes in Australian waters

Northern Australia is considered to be one of the last strongholds for three critically endangered sawfishes, Pristis zijsron, Pristis clavata, and Pristis microdon, making these populations of global significance. Population structure and levels of genetic diversity were assessed for each species across northern Australia using a portion of the mitochondrial control region. Statistically significant genetic structure was detected in all three species, although it was higher in P. microdon (F _ST = 0.811; N = 149) than in either P. clavata (F _ST = 0.419; N = 73) or P. zijsron (F _ST = 0.202; N = 49), possibly due to a much higher and/or localized level of female philopatry in P. microdon. The overall levels of haplotype diversity in P. zijsron (h = 0.555), P. clavata (h = 0.489), and P. microdon (h = 0.650) were moderate, although it appears to be reduced in the assemblages of P. zijsron and P. clavata in the Gulf of Carpentaria (h = 0.342 and h = 0.083, respectively). Since female migration (replenishment) between regions is unlikely, conservation plans should strive to maintain current levels of diversity and abundances in the regional assemblages of each species.     

Physiological energetics of cultivated mussel (Mytilus edulis) populations in two Scottish west coast sea lochs

Physiological responses of suspended cultured mussels, Mytilus edulis L., in two Scottish sea lochs (Lochs Etive and Leven) were investigated in their native and transplanted environments, after 15 d, 4.5 mo and 1 yr acclimatization, during the main growing season of May to September 1992. These measurements were integrated by means of the balanced energy equation, and scope for growth was calculated to assess the performance of each stock. Transplanted mussels showed clear signs of stress during the first 15 d after transfer, with low clearance rates and energy retention and high rates of respiration and nitrogen excretion. There were significant differences in some of the physiological responses (clearance, respiration and excretion rates), scope for growth and growth efficiency between the native populations, with the responses of mussels in Loch Etive being more favourable than those in Loch Leven. With newly transplanted mussels after 15 d acclimatization, almost all these measurements also differed significantly from native mussels in their host site and the original stocks but, with the exception of ammonia excretion rates, all the variables of cross-transplanted mussels after 4.5 mo acclimatization were the same as those of the native stock at the host site. Good agreement between observed long-term growth rates and estimated scope for growth suggests that, like growth rate, differences in physiological responses are mainly controlled by environmental factors; i.e., stock or origin had no significant influence on variations in physiological response (except ammonia excretion). The results further indicate that scope for growth estimated during the main growing season can be used to assess the actual growth rate and to compare sites for on-growing.     

Factors affecting farmers’ use of organic and inorganic fertilizers in South Asia

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Fertilizer, though one of the most essential inputs for increasing agricultural production, is a leading cause of nitrous oxide emissions from...     

Major Climate risks and Adaptation Strategies of Smallholder Farmers in Coastal Bangladesh

Environmental Management - Rural households in South Asia’s coastal deltas face numerous livelihood challenges, including risks posed by climatic variability and extreme weather events. This...     

The appraisal of sustainability: Some problems and possible responses

The development of 'indicators' and associated techniques for the appraisal of 'sustainability' requires efforts to systematically define, quantify and aggregate many disparate dimensions of social, environmental and economic performance. This necessarily raises a number of serious theoretical and methodological difficulties, including those relating to the selection and framing of 'problems' and 'options', the treatment of deep uncertainties and the 'impossibility' of aggregating in analysis the divergent social interests and value judgements which govern the prioritisation of the different dimensions of 'sustainability'. After exploring the depth and scope of some of these difficulties, this paper argues that they render futile any attempt to develop an 'analytical fix' for the problems of appraisal. In this light, systematic public participation is recognised not just as an issue of political efficacy and legitimacy, but also as a fundamental matter of analytical rigour. However, it is also concluded that once aspirations to the 'analytical fix' are renounced, there is much that might be contributed by transparent, straightforward quantitative analytical tools and the paper ends with some recommendations and an example in this regard.