In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation. 相似文献
Sectorial approach for monitoring heavy metal pollution in rivers has failed to report realistic pollution status and associated ecological and human health risks. The increasing spread of heavy metals from different sources and emerging risks to human and environmental health call for reexamining heavy metal pollution monitoring frameworks. Also, the sources, spread, and load of heavy metals in the environment have changed significantly over time, requiring consequent modification in the monitoring frameworks. Therefore, studies on heavy metal monitoring in rivers conducted in the last decade were evaluated for experimental designs, research frameworks, and data presentations. Most studies (∼99%) (i) lacked inclusiveness of all environmental compartments; (ii) focused on “one pollutant – one/two compartment” or sometimes “one pollutant – one compartment – one effect” approach; and (iii) remained “data-rich but information poor.” An ecological approach with integrative system thinking is proposed to develop a holistic approach for monitoring river pollution. It is visualized that heavy metal monitoring, risk analyses, and water management must incorporate tracking pollutants in different environmental compartments of a river (water, sediment, and floodplain/bank soil) and consider correlating it with riverbank land use. The systems-based pollution monitoring and assessment studies will reveal the critical factors that drive heavy metals pollutant movement in ecosystems and associated potential risks to the environment, wildlife, and humans. Also, water quality and pollution indexing tools would help better communicate complex pollution data and associated risks among all stakeholders. Therefore, integrating systems approaches in scientific- and policy-based tools would help sustainably manage the health of rivers, wildlife, and humans. 相似文献
Environmental Chemistry Letters - The rise of bacterial resistance to common clinical antibiotics is calling for alternative techniques to synthesize antibacterial drugs with high biodegradability.... 相似文献
Effective water quality management depends on enactment of appropriately designed monitoring programs to reveal current and forecasted conditions. Because water quality conditions are influenced by numerous factors, commonly measured attributes such as total phosphorus (TP) can be highly temporally varying. For highly varying processes, monitoring programs should be long-term and periodic quantitative analyses are needed so that temporal trends can be distinguished from stochastic variation, which can yield insights into potential modifications to the program. Using generalized additive mixed modeling, we assessed temporal (yearly and monthly) trends and quantified other sources of variation (daily and subsampling) in TP concentrations from a multidecadal depth-specific monitoring program on Big Platte Lake, Michigan. Yearly TP concentrations decreased from the late 1980s to late 1990s before rebounding through the early 2000s. At depths of 2.29 to 13.72 m, TP concentrations have cycled around stationary points since the early 2000s, while at the surface and depths ≥?18.29 concentrations have continued declining. Summer and fall peaks in TP concentrations were observed at most depths, with the fall peak at deeper depths occurring 1 month earlier than shallower depths. Daily sampling variation (i.e., variation within a given month and year) was greatest at shallowest and deepest depths. Variation in subsamples collected from depth-specific water samples constituted a small fraction of total variation. Based on model results, cost-saving measures to consider for the monitoring program include reducing subsampling of depth-specific concentrations and reducing the number of sampling depths given observed consistencies across the program period. 相似文献
Regional Environmental Change - We analyse the changes to agricultural metabolism in four municipalities of Vallès County (Catalonia, Iberia) by accounting for their agroecosystem funds and... 相似文献
Ambio - The choice of tree species used in production forests matters for biodiversity and ecosystem services. In Sweden, damage to young production forests by large browsing herbivores is helping... 相似文献
Ambio - In the original published article, the sentence “Nevertheless, semi-natural forest remnants continue to be harvested and fragmented (Svensson et al. 2018; Jonsson et al. 2019), and... 相似文献
The main aim of this study was to construct several regression models of air quality using techniques based on the statistical learning, in the metropolitan area of Oviedo, in northern Spain. In this research, a hybrid particle swarm optimization-based evolutionary support vector regression is implemented to predict the air quality from the experimental dataset (specifically, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and dust) collected from 2013 to 2015 in the metropolitan area of Oviedo. Furthermore, a multilayer perceptron network (MLP) and the M5 model tree were also fitted to the experimental dataset for comparison purposes. Finally, the predicted results show that the hybrid proposed model is more robust than the MLP and M5 model tree prediction methods in terms of statistical estimators and testing performances. 相似文献
Different social-ecological systems around the world are managed under community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) strategies. This paper analyses how CBNRM strategies influence the resilience of social-ecological systems to the disturbances they face, drawing upon the experience of three Latin American cases (two in Mexico and one in Colombia). The cases differ in their CBNRM approach and in the time these governance systems have been in place. By using a mixed-method approach, we review the socio-ecological history and describe each CBNRM characteristics. We then assess their resilience to socioeconomic and environmental disturbances through a set of indicators. We found that CBNRM strategies influence positively and negatively resilience and that internal decisions might address important threats. On the positive side, the social-ecological systems with longer tradition of CBNRM and more local buy-in of commonly agreed objectives appear to be more resilient to environmental challenges. But, internal governance factors such as power imbalances, poor income distribution, and gender inequities linked to CBNRM undermine resilience and foster out migration. Finally, communities appear to have limited capacities to cope with external disturbances such as global drivers of change or national policies that negatively affect their social-ecological resilience.