Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Book reviews

Cost Benefit Analysis of Environmental Change

Per‐Olov Johansson

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 232 pp., £13.95

Computerised Environmental Modelling: A Practical Introduction using Excel

J. Hardisty, D. M. Taylor & S. E. Metcalfe

Chichester, Wiley, 1993, 204 pp., £14.95

Keeping Pace with Science and Engineering: Case Studies in Environmental Regulation

Washington DC, US National Academy of Engineering, 1993

World Without End: Economics, Environment and Sustainable Development

D. W. Pearce & J. J. Warford

Oxford University Press, New York, 1993, 440 pp., £35.95     

137Cs in the Danish Wadden Sea: contrast between tidal flats and salt marshes

The 137Cs activity of salt marsh and tidal flat sediments of the northern part of the European Wadden Sea was studied based on a comprehensive dataset of 210Pb dated cores. The 137Cs inventory of salt marsh sediments shows a major peak corresponding to the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and a minor peak located in the late 1960s interpreted as the combined effect of atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons. Emissions from the nuclear reprocessing plant Sellafield are not reflected as peaks in 137Cs activity, but may contribute to the rising 137Cs activity in the years prior to 1986. The 137Cs activity of tidal flat sediments differs from salt marsh sediment in two respects. First, the activity is much lower and, second, the major peak in the 1980s is located in the beginning instead of in the middle of the decade. The differences in 137Cs inventory between the two environments are interpreted to result from repeated cycles of deposition/resuspension and mixing on tidal flats. A simple model illustrating the consequence of mixings returns an apparent shift of major peaks in 137Cs activities backwards in time corresponding to the mixing depth divided by the deposition rate.     

Development of a combined isotopic and mass-balance approach to determine dissolved organic carbon sources in eutrophic reservoirs

A combined mass-balance and stable isotope approach was set up to identify and quantify dissolved organic carbon (DOC) sources in a DOC-rich (9 mg L⁻¹) eutrophic reservoir located in Western France and used for drinking water supply (so-called Rophemel reservoir). The mass-balance approach consisted in measuring the flux of allochthonous DOC on a daily basis, and in comparing it with the effective (measured) DOC concentration of the reservoir. The isotopic approach consisted, for its part, in measuring the carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C values) of both allochthonous and autochthonous DOC sources, and comparing these values with the δ¹³C values of the reservoir DOC. Results from both approaches were consistent pointing out for a DOC of 100% allochthonous origin. In particular, the δ¹³C values of the DOC recovered in the reservoir (−28.5 ± 0.2‰; n = 22) during the algal bloom season (May-September) showed no trace of an autochthonous contribution (δ¹³C in algae = −30.1 ± 0.3‰; n = 2) being indistinguishable from the δ¹³C values of allochthonous DOC from inflowing rivers (−28.6 ± 0.1‰; n = 8). These results demonstrate that eutrophication is not responsible for the high DOC concentrations observed in the Rophemel reservoir and that limiting eutrophication of this reservoir will not reduce the potential formation of disinfection by-products during water treatment. The methodology developed in this study based on a complementary isotopic and mass-balance approach provides a powerful tool, suitable to identify and quantify DOC sources in eutrophic, DOC-contaminated reservoirs.     

Nitrogen fixation by cyanobacteria stimulates production in Baltic food webs

Filamentous, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria form extensive summer blooms in the Baltic Sea. Their ability to fix dissolved N₂ allows cyanobacteria to circumvent the general summer nitrogen limitation, while also generating a supply of novel bioavailable nitrogen for the food web. However, the fate of the nitrogen fixed by cyanobacteria remains unresolved, as does its importance for secondary production in the Baltic Sea. Here, we synthesize recent experimental and field studies providing strong empirical evidence that cyanobacterial nitrogen is efficiently assimilated and transferred in Baltic food webs via two major pathways: directly by grazing on fresh or decaying cyanobacteria and indirectly through the uptake by other phytoplankton and microbes of bioavailable nitrogen exuded from cyanobacterial cells. This information is an essential step toward guiding nutrient management to minimize noxious blooms without overly reducing secondary production, and ultimately most probably fish production in the Baltic Sea.