Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Characterization of phosphate rock and phosphogypsum from Gabes phosphate fertilizer factories (SE Tunisia): high mining potential and implications for environmental protection

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Since the establishment of the coastal industrial complex in Gabes city (Gulf of Gabes, SE Tunisia), hundred million tons of untreated phosphogypsum...     

The Adaptive Capacity Wheel: a method to assess the inherent characteristics of institutions to enable the adaptive capacity of society

Climate change potentially brings continuous and unpredictable changes in weather patterns. Consequently, it calls for institutions that promote the adaptive capacity of society and allow society to modify its institutions at a rate commensurate with the rate of environmental change. Institutions, traditionally conservative and reactive, will now have to support social actors to proactively respond through planned processes and deliberate steps, but also through cherishing and encouraging spontaneous and autonomous change, as well as allowing for institutional redesign. This paper addresses the question: How can the inherent characteristics of institutions to stimulate the capacity of society to adapt to climate change from local through to national level be assessed? On the basis of a literature review and several brainstorm sessions, this paper presents six dimensions: Variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources and fair governance. These dimensions and their 22 criteria form the Adaptive Capacity Wheel. This wheel can help academics and social actors to assess if institutions stimulate the adaptive capacity of society to respond to climate change; and to focus on whether and how institutions need to be redesigned. This paper also briefly demonstrates the application of this Adaptive Capacity Wheel to different institutions.     

Re-taking Care: Open Source Biotech in Light of the Need to Deproletarianize Agricultural Innovation

This article deals with the biotechnology revolution in agriculture and analyzes it in terms of Bernard Stiegler’s theory of techno-evolution and his thesis that technologies have an intrinsically pharmacological nature, meaning that they can be both supportive and destructive for sociotechnical practices based on them. Technological innovations always first disrupt existing sociotechnical practices, but are subsequently always appropriated by the social system to be turned into a new technical system upon which new sociotechnical practices are based. As constituted and conditioned by a technical system, human cultures are necessarily systems of care. Humans take care of themselves and the world through technologies. Agriculture is a very old system of care, stable for more than 10,000 years, but at the moment it is experiencing a profound rupture thanks to the invention of genetic engineering technologies, that promise to revolutionize it. However, their current deployment under capitalist conditions everywhere leads to processes of proletarianization, due to the fact that they enable the expropriation of farmers of the means of production, depriving them of the possibility of appropriating these new technologies and frustrating the invention of a new agricultural system of care. This has lead to a widespread rejection of the new technologies, which is a grave error though, as these technologies can become the basis of a new system of care. But only under the condition that they are wrought from corporate control and redeployed instead to initiate a process of deproletarianization. It is argued that current initiatives in open source and commons-based biotech are probably the most promising harbingers of such a process of deproletarianization.     

Observations and analytical modeling of freshwater and rainwater lenses in coastal dune systems

Observations are reported on (i) groundwater recharge rates under various types of vegetation as measured with megalysimeters in the dunes, (ii) freshwater lenses along the Dutch North Sea coast in the early 1900s, and (iii) rainwater lenses that develop on top of laterally migrating, artificially recharged riverwater. Subsequently analytical methods are presented to estimate annual natural groundwater recharge as function of rainfall and vegetation, and to calculate the size, shape and transition zone of freshwater lenses on saline groundwater and rainwater lenses on infiltrated riverwater. An empirical correction factor, based on the hydraulic resistance of an aquitard within the freshwater lens, is proposed to account for the frequently observed reduction of the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio of 40. This factor raises the groundwater table, reduces the depth of the fresh/salt interface and increases the lens formation time. The suite of methods offers a tool box for knowledge based water management of dune systems, by rapidly predicting: (i) more or less autonomous changes due to sealevel rise, climate change and vegetation development; and (ii) the potential (side) effects of interventions. Knowing what happened or will happen to the fresh water lens or a rainwater lens is important, because changes impact on important natural habitat parameters such as salinity, depth to groundwater table, decalcification rate (and thus on pH, Ca/Al, PO₄, NH₄) and nutrient availability, and on drinking water supply. The analytical models are applied to predict effects of sealevel rise, coastal progradation, vegetation changes, and increased temperature of coastal air and river water to be infiltrated.     

Development of Cleanup Standards at Superfund Sites: An Evaluation of Consistency

The Washington Department of Ecology (WDOE) recently developed a regulatory program for determining cleanup standards at hazardous waste sites. One of WDOE's first tasks in the development of a cleanup standards program was to evaluate how standards have been developed and implemented under Superfund.

The evaluation of cleanup standards revealed: (1) a great deal of variation among sites, both in the magnitude of the standards set for some contaminants and the basis on which they were set, and (2) that there is no consistent decision-making approach for determining how standards should be set. This lack of consistency and guidance has the potential to result in overly stringent or underprotective cleanup requirements and inefficient standard development.

Washington State has adopted an approach that allows for implementing uniform numerical cleanup standards at relatively straightforward sites and provides a process for establishing site-specific cleanup levels at more complex sites. This approach is expected to facilitate development of standards that offer appropriate human health and ecological protection while minimizing private and public sector site management and cleanup costs.     

Minimal pesticide-primed soil inoculum density to secure maximum pesticide degradation efficiency in on-farm biopurification systems

Addition of pesticide-primed soil containing adapted pesticide degrading bacteria to the biofilter matrix of on farm biopurification systems (BPS) which treat pesticide contaminated wastewater, has been recommended, in order to ensure rapid establishment of a pesticide degrading microbial community in BPS. However, uncertainties exist about the minimal soil inoculum density needed for successful bioaugmentation of BPS. Therefore, in this study, BPS microcosm experiments were initiated with different linuron primed soil inoculum densities ranging from 0.5 to 50 vol.% and the evolution of the linuron mineralization capacity in the microcosms was monitored during feeding with linuron. Successful establishment of a linuron mineralization community in the BPS microcosms was achieved with all inoculum densities including the 0.5 vol.% density with only minor differences in the time needed to acquire maximum degradation capacity. Moreover, once established, the robustness of the linuron degrading microbial community towards expected stress situations proved to be independent of the initial inoculum density. This study shows that pesticide-primed soil inoculum densities as low as 0.5 vol.% can be used for bioaugmentation of a BPS matrix and further supports the use of BPS for treatment of pesticide-contaminated wastewater at farmyards.     

Salt-marsh erosion and restoration in relation to flood protection on the Wadden Sea barrier island Terschelling

This paper explores the impact of erosion and restoration measures on habitat development and on wave damping by a small salt marsh nestled alongside a dike on the Wadden island of Terschelling. The aim is to advance knowledge about the benefits and possible side-effects of salt-marsh restoration. Analysis of a time series of aerial photographs from 1944 to 2010 indicates that the salt marsh decreased steadily in size after maintenance of accretion works was terminated. In the western part of the marsh, which is accessible to sheep, vegetation is low (5–15 cm) and dominated by Salicornia europaea and by Spartina anglica. In the most intensively grazed parts, vegetation is very scarce. The eastern, inaccessible part of the salt marsh is covered by dense patches of the shrubby perennial Atriplex portulacoides and Spartina anglica (15–25 cm in height). SWAN wave models show that wave height at this location is significantly affected by the areal extent of the salt marsh as well as by the vegetation. High or dense vegetation are in the models nearly as effective in damping waves (with an initial height of 0.15 and 0.5 m) as widening the salt-marsh area by 350 m. A low density of low plants, as observed in the grazed part of the marsh, has almost no wave-damping effect. Even under conditions of sea level rise, a broader salt marsh vegetated with high plants significantly affects modelled wave height. Therefore, salt-marsh restoration is an adaptation measure worth exploring, though an array of effect types must be considered.     

Community ecology of invasions: direct and indirect effects of multiple invasive species on aquatic communities

With many ecosystems now supporting multiple nonnative species from different trophic levels, it can be challenging to disentangle the net effects of invaders within a community context. Here, we combined wetland surveys with a mesocosm experiment to examine the individual and combined effects of nonnative fish predators and nonnative bullfrogs on aquatic communities. Among 139 wetlands, nonnative fish (bass, sunfish, and mosquitofish) negatively influenced the probability of occupancy of Pacific treefrogs (Pseudacris regilla), but neither invader correlated strongly with occupancy by California newts (Taricha torosa), western toads (Anaxyrus boreas), or California red-legged frogs (Rana draytonii). In mesocosms, mosquitofish dramatically reduced the abundance of zooplankton and palatable amphibian larvae (P. regilla and T. torosa), leading to increases in nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton (through loss of zooplankton), and rapid growth of unpalatable toad larvae (through competitive release). Bullfrog larvae reduced the growth of native anurans but had no effect on survival. Despite strong effects on natives, invaders did not negatively influence one another, and their combined effects were additive. Our results highlight how the net effects of multiple nonnative species depend on the trophic level of each invader, the form and magnitude of invader interactions, and the traits of native community members.