Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Variation in perception of environmental change in nine Solomon Islands communities: implications for securing fairness in community-based adaptation

Community-based approaches are pursued in recognition of the need for place-based responses to environmental change that integrate local understandings of risk and vulnerability. Yet the potential for fair adaptation is intimately linked to how variations in perceptions of environmental change and risk are treated. There is, however, little empirical evidence of the extent and nature of variations in risk perception in and between multiple community settings. Here, we rely on data from 231 semi-structured interviews conducted in nine communities in Western Province, Solomon Islands, to statistically model different perceptions of risk and change within and between communities. Overall, people were found to be less likely to perceive environmental changes in the marine environment than they were for terrestrial systems. The distance to the nearest market town (which may be a proxy for exposure to commercial logging and degree of involvement with the market economy), and gender had the greatest overall statistical effects on perceptions of risk. Yet, we also find that significant environmental change is underreported in communities, while variations in perception are not always easily related to commonly assumed fault lines of vulnerability. The findings suggest that there is an urgent need for methods that engage with the drivers of perceptions as part of community-based approaches. In particular, it is important to explicitly account for place, complexity and diversity of environmental risk perceptions, and we reinforce calls to engage seriously with underlying questions of power, culture, identity and practice that influence adaptive capacity and risk perception.

     

Diverging response patterns of terrestrial and aquatic species to hydromorphological restoration

Although experiences with ecological restoration continue to accumulate, the effectiveness of restoration for biota remains debated. We complemented a traditional taxonomic analysis approach with information on 56 species traits to uncover the responses of 3 aquatic (fish, macroinvertebrates, macrophytes) and 2 terrestrial (carabid beetles, floodplain vegetation) biotic groups to 43 hydromorphological river restoration projects in Germany. All taxonomic groups responded positively to restoration, as shown by increased taxonomic richness (10–164%) and trait diversity (habitat, dispersal and mobility, size, form, life history, and feeding groups) (15–120%). Responses, however, were stronger for terrestrial than aquatic biota, and, contrary to our expectation, taxonomic responses were stronger than those of traits. Nevertheless, trait analysis provided mechanistic insights into the drivers of community change following restoration. Trait analysis for terrestrial biota indicated restoration success was likely enhanced by lateral connectivity and reestablishment of dynamic processes in the floodplain. The weaker response of aquatic biota suggests recovery was hindered by the persistence of stressors in the aquatic environment, such as degraded water quality, dispersal constraints, and insufficient hydromorphological change. Therefore, river restoration requires combined local- and regional-scale approaches to maximize the response of both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. Due to the contrasting responses of aquatic and terrestrial biota, the planning and assessment of river restoration outcomes should consider effects on both components of riverine landscapes.     

Silver near municipal wastewater discharges into western Lake Ontario,Canada

Because of the widespread use of silver nanoparticles in commercial products, discharges of municipal wastewater may be a point source of silver in the aquatic environment. We monitored two sites in western Lake Ontario impacted by discharges from wastewater treatment plants serving the City of Toronto. Concentrations of silver were elevated in bottom sediments and suspended sediments collected at the two sites. We also deployed two types of passive samplers in the water column at the two sites, the newly developed Carbon Nanotube Integrative Samplers for monitoring “CNIS-labile” silver and Diffusive Gradient in Thin Film samplers for monitoring “DGT-labile” silver. Results from these passive samplers indicated that the concentrations of silver at the two sites were either below detection limits or were in the ng/L range. In laboratory experiments where the sediments were re-suspended in Milli-Q water, a small proportion of the silver (i.e., <?25%) was labile and partitioned as colloidal or dissolved silver into the liquid phase after agitation. Nanoparticles tentatively identified as silver nanoparticles were detected by single-particle ICP-MS in suspension after agitation of both suspended and bottom sediments. Therefore, there is a need to assess whether silver species, including silver nanoparticles are transported from wastewater treatment plants into sediments in the aquatic environment. This study is unique in focusing on the in situ distribution of silver in natural waters and in sediments that are potentially impacted by urban sources of nanoparticles.     

From vineyards to feedlots: a fund-flow scanning of sociometabolic transition in the Vallès County (Catalonia) 1860–1956–1999

Regional Environmental Change - We analyse the changes to agricultural metabolism in four municipalities of Vallès County (Catalonia, Iberia) by accounting for their agroecosystem funds and...     

Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

Applying the zoo model to conservation of threatened exceptional plant species

Maintaining a living plant collection is the most common method of ex situ conservation for plant species that cannot be seed banked (i.e., exceptional species). Viability of living collections, and their value for future conservation efforts, can be limited without coordinated efforts to track and manage individuals across institutions. Using a pedigree-focused approach, the zoological community has established an inter-institutional infrastructure to support long-term viability of captive animal populations. We assessed the ability of this coordinated metacollection infrastructure to support the conservation of 4 plant species curated in living collections at multiple botanic gardens around the world. Limitations in current practices include the inability to compile, share, and analyze plant collections data at the individual level, as well as difficulty in tracking original provenance of ex situ material. The coordinated metacollection framework used by zoos can be adopted by the botanical community to improve conservation outcomes by minimizing the loss of genetic diversity in collections. We suggest actions to improve ex situ conservation of exceptional plant species, including developing a central database to aggregate data and track unique individuals of priority threatened species among institutions and adapting a pedigree-based population management tool that incorporates life-history aspects unique to plants. If approached collaboratively across regional, national, and global scales, these actions could transform ex situ conservation of threatened plant species.     

Origin of major ions in monthly rainfall events at the Bamenda Highlands, North West Cameroon

Rainwater characteristics can reveal emissions from various anthropogenic and natural sources into the atmosphere. The physico-chemical characteristics of 44 monthly rainfall events （collected between January and December 2012） from 4 weather stations （Bamenda, Ndop plain, Ndawara and Kumbo） in the Bamenda Highlands （BH） were investigated. The purpose was to determine the sources of chemical species, their seasonal inputs and suitability of the rainwater for drinking. The mean pH of 5 indicated the slightly acidic nature of the rainwater. Average total dissolved solids （TDS） were low （6.7 mg/L）, characteristic of unpolluted atmospheric moisture/air. Major ion concentrations （mg/L） were low and in the order K＋ 〉 Ca2＋ 〉 Mg2~ 〉 Na＋ for cations and NO3 〉〉 HCO3 〉 SO] 〉 CI- 〉 PO3- 〉 F- for anions. The average rainwater in the area was mixed Ca-Mg-SO4-CI water type. The CI-/Na＋ ratio （1.04） was comparable to that of seawater （1.16）, an indication that N a＋ and CI originated mainly from marine （Atlantic Ocean） aerosols. High enrichments of Ca2＋, Mg2＋ and SO2- to Na＋ ratios relative to seawater ratios （constituting 44% of the total ions） demonstrated their terrigenous origin, mainly from Saharan and Sahelian arid dusts. The K＋/Na＋ ratio （2.24）, which was similar to tropical vegetation ash （2.38）, and NO3 was essentially from biomass burning. Light （〈 100 mm） pre-monsoon and post-monsoon convective rains were enriched in major ions than the heavy （〉 100 mm） monsoon rains, indicating a high contribution of major ions during the low convective showers. Despite the acidic nature, the TDS and major ion concentrations classified the rainwater as potable based on the WHO guidelines.     

Social media and disasters: a functional framework for social media use in disaster planning,response, and research

A comprehensive review of online, official, and scientific literature was carried out in 2012–13 to develop a framework of disaster social media. This framework can be used to facilitate the creation of disaster social media tools, the formulation of disaster social media implementation processes, and the scientific study of disaster social media effects. Disaster social media users in the framework include communities, government, individuals, organisations, and media outlets. Fifteen distinct disaster social media uses were identified, ranging from preparing and receiving disaster preparedness information and warnings and signalling and detecting disasters prior to an event to (re)connecting community members following a disaster. The framework illustrates that a variety of entities may utilise and produce disaster social media content. Consequently, disaster social media use can be conceptualised as occurring at a number of levels, even within the same disaster. Suggestions are provided on how the proposed framework can inform future disaster social media development and research.