Finding threatened forest areas in the central volcanic mountain range conservation area in Costa Rica

The degree at which tropical forests are exposed to human pressure is spatially dependent. Population density, proximity to roads, terrain slope, logging activities and land distribution projects are well known factors inducing deforestation and forest degradation in Latin America. Using expert knowledge to weight these threat factors and a Geographical Information System for spatial modeling, a multi-criteria analysis procedure is presented, that allows stratifying a study region in categories of deforestation threat. The procedure was implemented in the Central Volcanic Mountain Range Conservation Area (CVMRCA) in Costa Rica with the purpose of finding areas with a combination of physical and socioeconomic characteristics that is particularly predisposing to a high probability of deforestation. To validate the map, the CVMRCA was stratified in categories of deforestation risk, and the result was superposed to historical deforestation data of the period 1986–1996. The good correlation between risk category and historical deforestation (r = 0.91, p < 0.001) indicates that the map can be used as a decision support tool for defining priority areas for conservation action.     

基于绝对主成分-多元线性回归的滇池污染源解析

定量解析污染源是湖泊流域水环境管理的重要基础.基于滇池草海和外海多年水质监测数据,采用主成分分析（PCA）方法识别了主要水质指标的污染源类型,利用绝对主成分-多元线性回归模型（APCS-MLR）得到不同污染源对水质的贡献程度.结果表明,草海主要的污染源有农业面源、城市面源和内源3类,外海的主要污染源是农业面源、城镇生活污染源、城市面源和内源4类.与河流水污染源解析结果不同,底泥内源与气象因子对滇池主要水质指标的影响较大.     

生物基聚合物PHBV和PLA复合材料在不同介质中的生物降解及其影响因素

传统工艺的塑料生产不仅依赖石油资源的持续开发利用,同时给环境造成了前所未有的压力,近年来生物基聚合物（聚（3-羟基-3-戊酸酯）-PHBV,聚乳酸-PLA）日渐成为传统石油基塑料的替代产品.本文采用呼吸测试手段,旨在揭示均质复合材料在不同环境介质（土壤、熟化堆肥、水体）条件下及有机添加剂（木质素）,无机添加剂（蒙脱石）和天然有机物链增长剂（Joncryl）作用下的生物降解特征.结果表明：当链增长剂Joncryl添加量为5%时,对所有介质PHBV和PLA复合材料产生显著抑制作用.Joncryl添加量为0.2%时,未对所测样品的生物降解行为产生干扰作用.在熟化堆肥介质中,PLA复合材料比PHBV基质混合物的生物降解速率明显降低.有机木质纤维添加剂（榛子壳粉末）单独在聚合物中添加或者和链增长剂Joncryl以及非有机添加剂（Dellite72T）共同作用下都可促进PLA聚合物中各组分的相容连接性.实验结果表明,新型添加剂在不同介质中以二元或三元添加的方式对生物降解过程产生重要影响,该研究将为新型材料使用后的生物降解效应提供理论依据.     

Large-scale mercury variations in Lake Vänern (Sweden) 1974-98

Lake V?nern, the largest lake in Sweden, has been seriously contaminated with mercury during the 20th century. In the 1970's and 80's the direct load, mainly from a chlor-alkali industry in the area, of mercury was drastically reduced as a response to new legislation, from three to five tons down to between five and ten kg yr(-1). Large amounts of the disposed pollutant have accumulated in the sediments. The question posed in this work is now, is the effect of the drastic load reduction after more than two decades visible in the sediments? The question is relevant as large areas still are blacklisted for fishing, but also as a follow-up of a major remedy action. The lake also serves as a freshwater reservoir for even Sweden's second largest city. This work synthesises and compares data of mercury in the sediments from three major field programs, in 1974, 1984 and 1998. The interest is focused on both spatial heterogeneity and temporal trends. In 1974, the surface concentrations are significantly higher than in subsequent surveys. Significant differences are also found between 1984 and 1998. Significant spatial differences within the lake are found for respective year. The most contaminated area is located in the north, close to the major point source (a former chlor-alkali industry). This is also the area with the largest improvement, as a direct response to the reduction in load. Further from the outlet, the recovery is more affected by burial and transport processes out into the deeper basins.     

Modeling the spatial pattern of farmland using GIS and multiple logistic regression: a case study of Maotiao River Basin, Guizhou Province, China

Land use change is an important topic in the field of global environmental change and sustainable development. Land use change modeling has attracted substantial attention because it helps researchers understand the mechanisms of land use change and assists regulatory bodies in formulating relevant policies. Maotiao River Basin is located in the province of Guizhou, China, which has a developed agricultural industry in the karst mountain areas. This paper selected biophysical and social–economic factors as independent variables, and constructed a multiple logistic regression of farmland spatial distribution probability by random sampling. Then, by using GIS technology and integrating the 2000 data, this study predicted the farmland spatial pattern. When the predicted map was compared with the actual farmland map for 2000, we noted that 71% of the simulation is in accordance with the 2000 farmland pattern. The result satisfactorily proves the reasonability and applicability of our model.     

战略环境评价在环境与发展综合决策中的作用

建立环境与发展综合决策机制是加强宏观环境管理的着眼点和突破口，其中战略环境评价（SEA）是重要工具，回顾了SEA的概念及发展，从技术支持，运行框架和长远效益几方面论述了SEA所能发挥的核心作用。划分SEA的不同工作模式，阐述其综合决策特征，归纳SEA的成功因素，提出我国开展SEA的建议。     

Scale,context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.     

蚌埠市环境监测信息管理系统的开发实例

使用环境监测信息管理系统可以提高环境监测站数据处理能力,帮助其实现规划目标,并利用其从全局出发辅助环境管理决策.目前一般采用生命周期法来进行开发,它的使用标志着一个组织的计算机应用程度,因此建立环境监测信息管理系统是大势所趋.MIS理论上应和监测站一同建立、发展.     

多元回归分析法在突发性事故污染预测中的应用

运用多元回归性，通过预测模型的选择、基础数据系列化、回归模型的建立和回归效果的检验，建立了化学污染危害面积、纵深与诸条件的关系，达到了快速估算的目的，是突出性化学环境污染危害预测的一种方法。