Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

我国南方冰雪灾害的特征与城市救灾对策研究

在对2008年初中国南方所发生的冰雪灾害的损失、影响和成因进行分析的基础上,指出该次灾害具有受灾范围的全面性、灾害过程的发展性和救灾行动的艰难性等特征,阐明冰雪灾害在城市会造成停电停水、交通瘫痪和通讯中断等严重灾情,进而引发断油断粮、物价飞涨和人心恐慌等综合性灾害。通过冰雪灾害对城市救灾行动的总结,指出冰雪灾害给城市政府的深刻启示在于城市规模的急速扩张必须同时加强防灾救灾的软硬件建设,并提出城市必须采取持久开展防灾救灾知识宜传教育、大力加强防灾救灾基础设施建设、科学制订各类灾害的专业性应急预案和努力构建协同联动救灾机制等对策,有效提升城市应对灾害的能力,减少灾害造成的损失。     

Particulate matter exchange between atmosphere and roads surfaces in urban areas

The deposition and the re-suspension of particulate matter (PM) in urban areas are the key processes that contribute not only to stormwater pollution, but also to air pollution. However, investigation of the deposition and the re-suspension of PM is challenging because of the difficulties in distinguishing between the resuspended and the deposited PM. This study created two Bayesian Networks (BN) models to explore the deposition and the re-suspension of PM as well as the important influential factors. The outcomes of BN modelling revealed that deposition and re-suspension of PM10 occurred under both, high-traffic and low-traffic conditions, and the re-suspension of PM2.5 occurred under low-traffic conditions. The deposition of PM10 under low-volume traffic condition is 1.6 times higher than under high-volume traffic condition, which is attributed to the decrease in PM10 caused by relatively higher turbulence under high-volume traffic conditions. PM10 is more easily resuspended from road surfaces compared to PM2.5 as the particles which larger than the thickness of the laminar airflow over the road surface are more easily removed from road surfaces. The increase in wind speed contributes to the increase in PM build-up by transporting particulates from roadside areas to the road surfaces and the airborne PM2.5 and PM10 increases with the increase in relative humidity. The study outcomes provide a step improvement in the understanding of the transfer processes of PM2.5 and PM10 between atmosphere and urban road surfaces, which in turn will contribute to the effective design of mitigation measures for urban stormwater and air pollution.     

Analysis of pollutant levels in central Hong Kong applying neural network method with particle swarm optimization

Air pollution has emerged as an imminent issue in modernsociety. Prediction of pollutant levels is an importantresearch topic in atmospheric environment today. For fulfillingsuch prediction, the use of neural network (NN), and inparticular the multi-layer perceptrons, has presented to be acost-effective technique superior to traditional statisticalmethods. But their training, usually with back-propagation (BP)algorithm or other gradient algorithms, is often with certaindrawbacks, such as: 1) very slow convergence, and 2) easilygetting stuck in a local minimum. In this paper, a newlydeveloped method, particle swarm optimization (PSO) model, isadopted to train perceptrons, to predict pollutant levels, andas a result, a PSO-based neural network approach is presented. The approach is demonstrated to be feasible and effective bypredicting some real air-quality problems.     

Using improved neural network model to analyze RSP,NOx and NO2 levels in urban air in Mong Kok,Hong Kong

As the health impact of air pollutants existing in ambient addresses much attention in recent years, forecasting of airpollutant parameters becomes an important and popular topic inenvironmental science. Airborne pollution is a serious, and willbe a major problem in Hong Kong within the next few years. InHong Kong, Respirable Suspended Particulate (RSP) and NitrogenOxides NO_x and NO₂ are major air pollutants due to thedominant diesel fuel usage by public transportation and heavyvehicles. Hence, the investigation and prediction of the influence and the tendency of these pollutants are ofsignificance to public and the city image. The multi-layerperceptron (MLP) neural network is regarded as a reliable andcost-effective method to achieve such tasks. The works presentedhere involve developing an improved neural network model, whichcombines the principal component analysis (PCA) technique and theradial basis function (RBF) network, and forecasting thepollutant levels and tendencies based in the recorded data. Inthe study, the PCA is firstly used to reduce and orthogonalizethe original input variables (data), these treated variables arethen used as new input vectors in RBF neural network modelestablished for forecasting the pollutant tendencies. Comparingwith the general neural network models, the proposed modelpossesses simpler network architecture, faster training speed,and more satisfactory predicting performance. This improvedmodel is evaluated by using hourly time series of RSP, NO_x and NO₂ concentrations collected at Mong Kok Roadside Gaseous Monitory Station in Hong Kong during the year 2000. By comparing the predicted RSP, NO_x and NO₂ concentrationswith the actual data of these pollutants recorded at the monitorystation, the effectiveness of the proposed model has been proven.Therefore, in authors' opinion, the model presented in the paper is a potential tool in forecasting air quality parameters and hasadvantages over the traditional neural network methods.     

Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network Design for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Exposures to Airborne Contaminants

Existing methods of establishing ambientair quality monitoring networks typically evaluateonly parameters related to ambient concentrations ofthe contaminant(s) of interest such as emissionsource characteristics, atmospheric transport anddispersion, secondary reactions, depositioncharacteristics, and local topography. However,adverse health risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants are a function of the contaminant andthe anatomic and physiologic characteristics of theexposed population. Thus, ambient air qualitymonitoring networks designed for the protection ofpublic health or for epidemiological studiesevaluating adverse health impacts from exposures toambient air contaminants should account for bothcontaminant characteristics and human healthparameters. A methodology has been establishedwhich optimizes ambient air quality monitoringnetworks for assessments of adverse human healthimpacts from exposures to airborne contaminants byincorporating human health risk assessmenttechniques. The use of risk assessment techniquesas the basis for designing ambient air qualitymonitoring networks will help to target limitedfinancial and human resources to evaluate humanhealth risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants.     

Determining Ecoregions for Environmental and GMO Monitoring Networks

A representative environmental monitoring network at the regional scale cannot use raster-based or random sampling designs, but requires a stratified sampling procedure integrating different information layers, and it has to occur in ecologically differing homogeneous regions (ecoregions). These we have determined using a set of spatial strata with ecological variables which we analysed with classification and regression trees (CART). We present a framework for environmental monitoring, that covers different scales, and we transfer the framework to a potential GMO (genetically modified organisms) monitoring network. We use ecoregion and other environmental strata together with existing environmental monitoring networks to determine GMO monitoring sites more precisely.     

试论高职高专教育毕业生质量标准

本文详细地论述了什么是高职高专教育的毕业生质量标准和为什么要制定毕业生质量标准以及制定毕业生质量标准的原则、毕业生质量标准的内容及方法。     

活性污泥系统动力学模拟方法的综合分析

活性污泥法的应用现状和污水中氮磷排放标准的日益严格，使得传统数学模型已满足不了目前的要求，需要对活性污泥系统复杂的动力学规律进行有效模拟。文章在综合分析活性污泥动态模型国内外研究现状的基础上，介绍了3种占主流地位的模型：活性污泥数学模型、神经网络模型和混合模型。这3种模型在污水处理的设计、运行控制和工艺优化等方面各有其独到之处。     

加强能力培养, 提高专业水平——论环境类中专的教学改革

介绍了环境保护中专办学２０年来所取得的成绩及其为环保事业的发展做出的积极贡献，并指出存在的问题．为适应环保事业发展的需要，对环保中专在专业设置、课程设置、教学计划和教材建设方面，均提出改革意见