基于SHERPA的环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估

分析了SHERPA综合评价模型的基本原理和主要建模理念,重点介绍了其在环境空气质量减排情景模拟评估方面的作用,以及在排放源与受体关系(SRR)方面的处理方法,比较了其与欧盟常用的其他情景模拟模型的优缺点。SHERPA模型的特点是空间灵活性较好,对于任何给定地点,可以快速评估不同地区对该研究地点空气质量的影响。SHERPA模型的3个主要功能为污染物来源分析、决策支持和情景模拟。基于SHERPA模型对法国环境空气中PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)和NO_2年均浓度进行污染来源分析、决策支持分析和减排情景模拟评估,展示了模型在环境治理措施优先级筛选和政府间联合治理措施协调建议方面的功能和作用,以期为中国环境空气质量预测预报、环境质量管理措施的制定和成效评估等环境服务与管理工作提供借鉴。     

北部湾南流江流域土地覆盖及生物多样性模拟

以北部湾独流入海河流南流江流域为研究对象,基于研究区2000年和2015年遥感数据解译的土地利用数据以及社会经济等数据,采用CLUE-S模型对未来2030年生态保护情景、自然增长情景以及粮食安全情景的土地利用格局进行了模拟预测,在此基础上采用InVEST模型对流域过去和未来不同情景的生物多样性进行了评估,探讨了流域生物多样性的生境质量和生境退化程度.结果表明：2000~2015年南流江流域建设用地、园地、水域和未利用地呈现出增加趋势,其中建设用地的增幅最大,而耕地和林地减幅最大.流域土地系统中共存在着34种土地网络转移流关系,上游存在24种,中游20种,下游28种,耕地与建设用地、耕地与林地以及林地与园地之间的转换占到流域总土地利用变化的70.74%.CLUE-S模型模拟未来土地利用的Kappa系数达到0.86,表明模型模拟未来情景的土地利用精度满足要求.2000年、2015年、2030年生态保护情景、2030年自然增长情景以及2030年粮食安全情景流域生境质量总得分和平均得分分别为866630,900357,921055,876231,865370和0.7457,0.7747,0.7925,0.7539,0.7466.2030年3种情景的中上游和下游地区生物多样性都呈现出不同程度的改善趋势,而中游地区则表现出退化趋势.     

新冠肺炎疫情期间我国居民洗手行为研究

直接接触和飞沫传播等方式是新型冠状病毒传播的主要途径,合理的洗手行为是切断暴露途径和降低病毒感染风险的有效防控措施,对于新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19,简称“新冠肺炎”）疫情的防控具有重要的作用.该研究于2020年2月25日—3月14日,采用电子问卷的方式调查了覆盖我国31个省（自治区、直辖市）1 728个县（区）18岁及以上的居民,收集共计8 330名成人的洗手情形及洗手时长等信息,分析不同暴露情景下的洗手行为及其影响因素.结果表明:女性、城市地区居民在洗手比例和洗手时长上均分别高于男性、农村地区居民.人群在一般暴露情景下的洗手比例较高,而对于病毒感染风险较高的暴露情景（如咳嗽或打喷嚏后、接触他人后等）的洗手率（分别为73.6%和83.9%）排名靠后,说明人群对病毒的传播途径和防护措施有待深入理解;在洗手时间上,根据WHO规定的洗手时长标准（20 s）,仅有41.7%的人群洗手时长合格（大于20 s）,城区居民洗手时长的合格率（42.0%）显著高于农村地区（39.7%）;总体上,具有外出经历的人群洗手比例较未曾外出的人群高,新冠肺炎疫情期间居住地是否存在新冠肺炎疑似和确诊病例显著影响居民的洗手行为,但是疫情最严重的地区居民的洗手时长合格率（37.2%）最低,反而疫情最轻的地区居民的洗手时长合格率（43.6%）最高,说明居民的洗手行为可能受疫情等多方面的影响.研究显示,相比于非疫情期间而言,疫情期间我国居民洗手行为发生率提高,洗手时长合格率提高,但是仍然水平偏低.应提高居民洗手行为意识,科学地执行洗手这一防护措施,相关政策制定以及个人防护应当进一步关注和重视洗手行为的防疫作用.      

厦门市冬季PM2.5污染情境识别及其与气象条件的关系

为研究厦门市冬季不同PM_2.5污染情境与气象条件和气团轨迹路径特征的关系,结合PM_2.5观测数据,使用AGAGE（Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment）统计方法识别2014—2018年冬季厦门市PM_2.5观测值、基线值和污染值情境,通过气象数据统计和气团后向轨迹聚类对不同PM_2.5污染情境下气象条件和气团轨迹路径特征进行探究.结果表明:①厦门市冬季不同PM_2.5污染情境下,ρ（PM_2.5）及PM_2.5污染值情境时长占比均呈波动中下降的趋势,具体表现为冬季PM_2.5观测值、污染值和基线值情境下,ρ（PM_2.5）平均值分别从2014年的42.2、90.7、16.4 μg/m3降至2018年的26.3、56.9、8.8 μg/m3,冬季PM_2.5污染值情境时长占比从2014年的10.2%降至2018年的3.0%.②冬季PM_2.5污染值情境下气象要素呈低风速、低气压、高温度、高相对湿度的特征.③冬季到达厦门市的气团轨迹路径中,局地路径由于大气条件稳定易累积形成PM_2.5污染;偏北路径和西北路径易从临近省份携带污染物输入导致PM_2.5污染,属于重要的外源污染输入路径;沿海路径和偏西路径均属于清洁路径,但沿海路径易在福建省北部与偏北路径重合形成污染输入,加强了偏北路径的污染物输送能力.研究显示,近年来厦门市冬季PM_2.5污染有明显减弱趋势,但不利的气象条件和外来污染输入仍会造成PM_2.5污染的发生.      

2019年10~12月京津冀及周边“2+26”城市重污染减排效果评估

为评估京津冀及周边区域重污染过程期间应急减排措施的效果,基于情景模拟的方法,采用NAQPMS模式和多种观测资料,分析了2019年10~12月期间京津冀及周边区域环境空气质量、重污染过程和气象条件概况,评估了模式24、72和144 h的PM_2.5预报效果,并对应急减排措施的效果和不确定性进行了讨论.结果表明,2019年10~12月京津冀及周边"2+26"城市PM_2.5平均浓度64 μg ·m^-3,同比降低了10 μg ·m^-3;区域性重污染过程4次,受影响城市重污染过程期间PM_2.5平均浓度156 μg ·m^-3."2+26"城市PM_2.5气象条件评估指数（EMI）变化值范围为-15.6%~16.8%,EMI显示北京、天津和石家庄等12个城市气象条件与同期相比变差,变差程度范围为3.2%~16.8%.减排情景模拟分析显示应急减排措施有效减少了区域性重污染过程的发生,污染物峰值浓度降幅明显,未出现区域性严重污染过程.典型重污染期间,北京、石家庄、保定和唐山等城市PM_2.5日均浓度削减2%~9%.区域应急减排措施促使"2+26"城市PM_2.5季度均值分别降低1~3 μg ·m^-3左右,区域性减排效果明显.     

基于高精度清单的京津冀机动车控污政策研究

为研究京津冀机动车污染控制政策对CO、HC、NO_x、PM_2.5、PM₁₀等污染物的减排效果,建立了2014年高精度机动车排放清单,选取过去已经实施,未来规划实施及优化/劣化后的若干政策,设置4类共13种政策情景,与实际清单基准情景进行对比,识别各政策情景的排放变化,并对其中由政府给予补贴的政策进行成本收益核算.结果显示,淘汰低排放标准机动车带来的污染减排效果最好,在天津和河北对CO和HC的排放削减分别为53.19%,49.75%和51.28%,50.87%,达半数及以上;升级机动车发动机和燃油标准也能显著削减排放,在天津和河北对PM_2.5、PM₁₀的削减分别为17.01%,17.00%和21.95%,21.93%.政府补贴政策存在明显边际效应特征,排放标准高,重污染车少的北京单位成本的减排收益明显低于天津和河北,.河北和天津在考虑成本因素的基础上,应当逐步采纳北京的高标准减排政策;北京则可在一定条件下,将一部分低效的政府补贴通过合理方式转移支付给天津和河北,以提高政府投入的减排效率.     

Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector

Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples. Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased.     

地铁火灾场景设计探讨

近年来，地铁火灾是火灾科学界研究的热点。火灾场景设计是开展地铁火灾研究的基础环节，它对地铁内的烟气运动和人员疏散有重要的影响。通过对国内外文献的调研发现，地铁火灾场景的设计并无统一明确的表述。在综合前人研究的基础上，对地铁火灾场景中需要确定的火灾荷载和起火点位置进行了初步探讨，并给出了分析结果。     

Using consequence analysis on some chlorine operation hazards and their possible effects on neighborhoods in central Taiwan

The applications of chlorine have been broadly used in many industrial products, such as bleaching agents, synthetic rubbers, plastics, disinfectants, iron chlorides, fire refractory materials, insecticides, and anti-freezers, etc. According to the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA), more than 30 thousand tons were used in the year 2000. In addition, there were more than 12 reported incidents from 2000 to 2003—mostly on using chlorine as disinfectants (five) and as process agents (four).

This study investigated 15 chlorine operation plants in central Taiwan. These chlorine usages included bleaching agents, disinfectants, iron chloride, synthesizing rubber plastics, and others. Thirteen plants were located in the industrial parks and two were in or near residential zones. The consequence analysis were used three different methods to analyze the worst-case scenarios (WCSs) and alternative release case scenarios (ACSs) in order to compare impact zones for applying various active and passive mitigation systems, such as confined space, scrubber, water-spray, and so no. For two plants in or near residential zones, multi-layers mitigation systems and operation limits should be implemented in order to enforce more stringent protection measures. However, there was no specific regulation for chlorine plants operated at different locations, such as industrial parks or residential zones. In order to reduce chemical accidents and their impacts on public safety, our results suggest that source mitigation/management and warning systems should be adopted simultaneously.     

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.