高烈度地震区隧道软硬围岩交接段刚柔并济抗减震技术研究*

为提高高烈度地震区隧道抗震性能，以某铁路隧道为研究背景，分析3种抗减震措施下隧道不同监测点隧道拱顶沉降、边墙收敛、衬砌结构PGA及最小安全系数，通过对比分析得到最优抗减震措施。结果表明:相比于工况1，工况2隧道拱顶沉降减小10.54%~81.10%，边墙收敛减小13.92%~78.77%，衬砌结构PGA减小31.42%~72.02%，最小安全系数增加18.04%~66.13%；相比于工况1，工况3结构拱顶沉降减小3.04%~18.02%，边墙收敛减小4.70%~32.00%，PGA增加13.95%~27.48%，最小安全系数增加7.49%~30.99%；工况4即“减震层+SFRC衬砌”刚柔并济法，相比于工况1，隧道拱顶沉降减小18.46%~83.98%，结构边墙收敛减小17.54%~85.47%，PGA减小30.00%~69.98%，最小安全系数增加47.95%~83.56%；4种工况抗减震性能由高到低依次为:工况4＞工况2＞工况3＞工况1。研究结果可为隧道软硬围岩交接段抗震设防提供理论参考。     

不同类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律研究

为探究各类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律，为飞行员日常工作管理提供依据，选取某航空公司200名飞行员进行压力测试，并调取其近6 a的飞机品质(QAR)数据，通过相关性分析和线性回归分析将飞行员压力数据与其QAR数据进行对比分析，探究飞行员压力对飞行安全绩效的影响规律。研究结果表明:工作负荷压力、家庭压力、人际关系压力和组织管理压力会显著负向影响飞行员安全绩效；角色压力和专业发展压力会显著正向影响飞行员安全绩效。     

A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

洪泽湖水体富营养化时空分布特征与影响因素分析

通过2014年—2017年对洪泽湖12个水质断面定期调查,采用营养状态指数(TLI)综合评价其水体富营养状态,同时应用主成分分析方法(PCA)分析其富营养化状态的时空变化特征。结果表明,洪泽湖70%以上的调查断面水质全年处于轻度富营养化状态,夏季是其富营养化最严重的季节;洪泽湖年内水体水质差异较大,而其水华特征并未呈现明显差异;洪泽湖富营养化很大程度上受制于营养盐的积累程度,并与湖泊透明度呈现极显著的负相关关系(p0.001),与湖水pH值呈现极显著的正相关关系。     

山西省绿色转型发展现状评价及路径研究

从经济、社会、资源、环境保护4个层面构建了切合山西省实际情况的绿色转型发展指标体系,采用熵权法及聚类分析方法对山西省的绿色转型发展现状进行了评价,根据评价结果,结合政策背景,提出了山西省实现绿色转型发展的路径,以实现山西省均衡快速的绿色转型发展。     

井下光谱多参数分析系统开发

本系统基于气体浓度光学分析方法理论朗伯-比尔(Lambert-Beer)定律、光谱气体检测技术开发,实现了对煤矿火灾与瓦斯灾害超前预警、灾害产生的有毒有害气体实时监测和煤矿环境气体爆炸危险性辨识,对于煤矿灾害防治、救灾过程中杜绝次生灾害,保障煤矿工人及救护队员的生命安全,促进煤矿安全生产具有重要意义。     

分层开采工艺对地表沉降的影响研究

分层开采是厚煤开采的经典工艺,这种工艺对地表沉降的影响比较复杂。通过测试原岩物理力学参数,利用有限元软件flac3D对分层和一次采全高时地表沉降进行了数值模拟。结果表明,如果采高较小,砌体梁距煤层较近,且采完上分层后长时间停采,给顶板再生留足时间,分层开采较一次采全高对地表沉降影响要小。     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

Fast,cheap, and imperfect? US public opinion about solar geoengineering

ABSTRACT

Solar geoengineering, which seeks to cool the planet by reflecting a small fraction of sunlight back into space, has drawn the attention of scientists and policymakers as climate change remains unabated. Unlike mitigation, solar geoengineering could quickly and cheaply lower global temperatures. It is also imperfect. Its environmental impacts remain unpredictable, and its low cost and immediate effects may result in ‘moral hazard,’ potentially crowding out costly mitigation efforts. There is little understanding about how the public will respond to such tradeoffs. To address this, a 1000-subject nationally representative poll focused on solar geoengineering was conducted as part of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) of the US electorate in October–November 2016. The importance that individuals place on solar geoengineering’s speed and cost predicts their support for it, but there is little to no relationship between their concerns about its shortcomings and support for its research and use. Acquiescence bias appears to be an important factor for attitudes around solar geoengineering and moral hazard.     

Difference in the net value of ecological services between natural and artificial forests in China

Land degradation is a global problem that seriously threatens human society. However, in China and elsewhere, ecological restoration still largely relies on a traditional approach that focuses only on ecological factors and ignores socioeconomic factors. To improve the effectiveness of ecological restoration and maximize its economic and ecological benefits, a more efficient approach is needed that provides support for policy development and land management and thereby promotes environmental conservation. We devised a framework for assessing the value of ecosystem services that remain after subtracting costs, such as the opportunity costs, costs of forest protection, and costs for the people who are affected by the program; that is, the net value of ecosystem services (NVES). To understand the difference between the value of a resource and the net value of the ecosystem service it provides, we used data on VES, timber sales, and afforestation costs from China's massive national afforestation programs to calculate the net value of forest ecosystem services in China. Accounting for the abovementioned costs revealed an NVES of ¥6.1 × 10¹² for forests in 2014, which was 35.9% less than the value calculated without accounting for costs. As a result, the NVES associated with afforestation was 55.9% less than the NVES of natural forests. In some regions, NVES was negative because of the huge costs of human-made plantations, high evapotranspiration rates (thus, high water opportunity costs), and low forest survival rates. To maximize the ecological benefits of conservation, it is necessary to account for as many costs as possible so that management decisions can be based on NVES, thereby helping managers choose projects that maximize both economic and ecological benefits.