城市土地置换过程中土壤多环芳烃污染的健康风险评价

利用健康风险评价方法判定污染土壤是否需要修复或再次开发已成为一个新的研究领域。以某区域土地置换开发为案例，结合区域未来土地利用类型，采用健康风险评价模型对土壤多环芳烃（PAHs）污染可能给未来入住人群带来的健康风险进行初步评价。结果显示，在正常情况与极端情况两种暴露场合下，考虑直接接触不慎摄入、呼吸土壤尘和皮肤直接接触土壤3种途径，计算出的土壤PAHs污染的致癌风险相对较高，部分点位已经超过了人体健康可接受的致癌风险程度。且以敏感人群儿童为例，利用摄入量和风险评价反推得出，当土壤中PAHs含量低于634 μg/kg时，在极端情况下，儿童致癌风险可降低到可接受的致癌风险水平。随着环境管理工作的深入发展，在城市土地置换过程中应逐步加强环境健康风险评价方面的研究。     

Integration of environmental and human health risk assessment for industries using hazardous materials: a quantitative multi criteria approach for environmental decision makers

Environmental management, for which environmental and human health risk assessment is the first stage, is a requirement for industries both before construction and during operation in order to sustain improved quality of life in the ecosystem. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose an approach that integrates environmental and human health risk assessment for industries using hazardous materials in order to support environmental decision makers with quantitative and directive results. Analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic are used as tools to handle problems caused by complexity of environment and uncertain data. When the proposed approach is implemented to a scenario, it was concluded that it is possible to define risk sources with their risk classes and related membership degrees in that classes which enable the decision maker to decide which risk source has priority. In addition, they can easily point out and rank the factors contributing those risk sources owing to priority weights of them. As a result, environmental decision makers can use this approach while they are developing management alternatives for unfounded and on-going industrial plants using hazardous materials.     

Cancer risk assessment of selected hazardous air pollutants in Seattle

The risk estimates calculated from the conventional risk assessment method usually are compound specific and provide limited information for source-specific air quality control. We used a risk apportionment approach, which is a combination of receptor modeling and risk assessment, to estimate source-specific lifetime excess cancer risks of selected hazardous air pollutants. We analyzed the speciated PM(2.5) and VOCs data collected at the Beacon Hill in Seattle, WA between 2000 and 2004 with the Multilinear Engine to first quantify source contributions to the mixture of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) in terms of mass concentrations. The cancer risk from exposure to each source was then calculated as the sum of all available species' cancer risks in the source feature. We also adopted the bootstrapping technique for the uncertainty analysis. The results showed that the overall cancer risk was 6.09 x 10(-5), with the background (1.61 x 10(-5)), diesel (9.82 x 10(-6)) and wood burning (9.45 x 10(-6)) sources being the primary risk sources. The PM(2.5) mass concentration contributed 20% of the total risk. The 5th percentile of the risk estimates of all sources other than marine and soil were higher than 110(-6). It was also found that the diesel and wood burning sources presented similar cancer risks although the diesel exhaust contributed less to the PM(2.5) mass concentration than the wood burning. This highlights the additional value from such a risk apportionment approach that could be utilized for prioritizing control strategies to reduce the highest population health risks from exposure to HAPs.     

Possible underestimations of risks for the environment due to unregulated emissions of biocides from households to wastewater

The aim of this study was to investigate the role of household products as possible sources of biocidal active substances in municipal wastewater and their regulation under the Biocidal Products Regulation (EU) 528/2012. In 131 households, we investigated the prevalence of products used to control pests, washing and cleaning agents and select personal care products with high release to wastewater. Inventories of these products were established with the help of barcode scanning. All uses of biocidal active substances were evaluated regarding their assessment under the Biocidal Products Regulation.2963 products were scanned in total, with 48% being washing and cleaning agents, 43% personal care products and 9% products used to control pests. Biocidal active substances were found in each household. These were observed primarily in washing and cleaning agents and personal care products (90%), while only a small percentage of the observations of biocidal active substances was in biocidal products. 64% of the observations of biocidal active substances were in applications that do not fall under the Biocidal Products Regulation and are thus not subject to its environmental risk assessment.This study shows clearly that risks for the environment are underestimated because unregulated emissions to wastewater occur. It demonstrates that there are gaps in the current chemical legislation that lead to a release of substances into wastewater that were not subject to environmental risk assessment under the Biocidal Products Regulation. This is one example of the limitations of scientific risk assessment of chemicals – its complexity is immense. From our point of view, the results underline the importance of a sustainable use of the substances as this is the only way to decrease yet unidentified risks.     

基于生态系统水平的洞庭湖生态风险评价

以“生态系统服务”为生态风险评价终点,通过量化外界压力源与生态系统服务的“压力 响应”模式,建立基于生态系统水平的生态风险评价方法。该方法将生态系统整体作为分析对象,同时考虑了生态系统的各种组成要素及要素间的复杂关联作用。运用该方法评价了洞庭湖的生态风险,并对评价结果进行了分析。评价结果表明东洞庭湖的生态风险程度最高,西洞庭湖次之,南洞庭湖最低。造成洞庭湖生态风险的主要压力源为城市化、生活和气候变化;主要胁迫因子为有机污染物、营养物质和水流量变化。受影响较大的生态系统指标为生物多样性、河湖连通性和碳循环;营养循环价值、净化水质价值和生物多样性价值3项生态系统服务风险程度较高     

Exposure to major volatile organic compounds and carbonyls in European indoor environments and associated health risk

This paper summarizes recent data on the occurrence of major organic compounds (benzene, toluene, xylenes, styrene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, naphthalene, limonene, α-pinene and ammonia, classified by the European Commission's INDEX strategy report as the priority pollutants to be regulated) and evaluates accordingly cancer and non-cancer risks posed by indoor exposure in dwellings and public buildings in European Union (EU) countries. The review process indicated that significant differences in indoor air quality exist within and among the countries where data were available, indicating corresponding differences in sources and emission strength of airborne chemicals, identified or not. Conservative exposure limits were not exceeded for non-carcinogenic effects, except for formaldehyde; for carcinogenic agents the estimated risks were up to three orders of magnitude higher than the one (10(-6)) proposed as acceptable by risk management bodies. However, the risk assessment evaluation process faces crucial difficulties, either due to the relative paucity of indoor air quality measurements in many EU countries, or by the lack of sampling consistency in the already existing studies, indicating the need for additional measurements of indoor air quality following a harmonized sampling and analytical protocol. Additionally, uncertainties embodied in the cancer potency factors and exposure limit values impose further difficulties in substance prioritization and risk management.     

Ways of improving the management of environmental risks

From the public's discovery of environmental quality in the late 1960s to the present, there has been increasing recognition that a more systematic approach is required to manage risks and to achieve the gains at low cost. Such a systematic approach must begin with risk identification, then go on to risk assessment, consideration of management options, a decision analysis of the options, and an examination of strategies for reducing loss. One of the most difficult aspects of environmental risk management is setting goals. There is a tendency to engage in rhetoric about zero risks and a pristine environment. However, moving toward more realistic goals requires consideration of what is an acceptable risk level. This level cannot be defined without knowing the benefits that come with the risk and the costs of reducing the risk. More generally, the criteria for selecting a risk management strategy include the residual level of risk, efficiency in reducing risk, equity, administrative simplicity, and public acceptability. A number of frameworks are currently used by U.S. regulatory agencies to manage risk: no-risk, risk-risk, technology-based standards, risk-benefit, cost-effectiveness, regulatory budget, and benefit-cost analysis. In specifying that an agency must use one of these frameworks, the U.S. Congress is implicitly specifying the goals for risk reduction. It appears to be easier for the U.S. Congress to specify a framework than a goal. Some of the nonregulatory means of managing risk include the market, and legal mechanisms. These risk management institutions have been effective and are a necessary part of any risk management program.     

Areas of uncertainty in comparing risks of energy systems

In the past, the safety of technology has mainly been ensured by deterministic criteria that were based on engineering principles and on experience. Recently, however, it has become necessary to include risk assessment into safety policy. This need arises due to the order of magnitude of possible health and environmental impact from normal operation or accidents, as well as the complexity of modern systems that no longer allow for intuitive understanding of possible accident sequences. Assessment of risks of technical installations is subject to large uncertainties that are caused by lack of data and inadequate quantification and evaluation methods. This paper reviews the main areas of uncertainties with regard to their importance for decisionmaking. Uncertainties are an inherent part of any risk assessment result and can never be avoided. It is thus important to pay particular attention to them including limitations of methods, sensitivity to assumptions about parameters, and site-specific considerations. All this information must be described in great detail so that it can be integrated into the decisionmaking process. If applied in this context, risk assessment is a useful tool for identifying major contributors to risk and effective actions of risk management.     

Practical consequences of the assessment of different energy health risks

Public authorities must make decisions about energy, and the risks of alternative strategies need to be calculated including health and environmental costs. Information from various sources must be organized into a logical framework for comparing impacts. This must include the widest practicable range of health and environmental damage — public-health impact of pollution, role of accidents, disease and hazardous materials in the workplace, and odds for catastrophes. It must put each part of the energy cycle into perspective-giving particular attention to uncertainties in knowledge - to convey what is known, what is uncertain, and the importance of each factor in the overall picture. This paper gives examples of the use of health-impact assessment by decisionmakers: (1) comparative risk assessment of the health effects of coal and nuclear fuel cycles used in nuclear power plant siting and licensing hearings, and (2) health risks of acid deposition and other air-transported pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment for the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment.     

城市土地置换过程中土壤多环芳烃污染的健康风险评价

利用健康风险评价方法判定污染土壤是否需要修复或再次开发已成为一个新的研究领域。以某区域土地置换开发为案例,结合区域未来土地利用类型,采用健康风险评价模型对土壤多环芳烃（PAHs）污染可能给未来入住人群带来的健康风险进行初步评价。结果显示,在正常情况与极端情况两种暴露场合下,考虑直接接触不慎摄入、呼吸土壤尘和皮肤直接接触土壤3种途径,计算出的土壤PAHs污染的致癌风险相对较高,部分点位已经超过了人体健康可接受的致癌风险程度。且以敏感人群儿童为例,利用摄入量和风险评价反推得出,当土壤中PAHs含量低于634 μg/kg时,在极端情况下,儿童致癌风险可降低到可接受的致癌风险水平。随着环境管理工作的深入发展,在城市土地置换过程中应逐步加强环境健康风险评价方面的研究。     

离子膜烧碱工程环境风险评价与防范措施

近年来,全国各地有毒气体泄漏、火灾爆炸等事故时有发生。人们逐渐认识并越来越关心重大的突发性事故造成的环境问题,同时也加快了人们对化工建设项目环境风险评价的步伐,使我国防治环境风险的工作进入高潮。本文以滨州一离子膜烧碱项目为例,从风险识别、风险源项分析、风险计算、风险预测等方面对项目存在的风险进行环境影响评价,并提出相应的防治措施,以降低其对人类健康和环境的危害。     

蒲河流域生态环境需水研究

以蒲河流域为例,以改善水环境为出发点,提出了一种以生态分区为前提,同时满足人类正常生产活动的生态环境需水估算模型。该模型从生态系统角度分析了蒲河流域现阶段存在的问题,比简单的水文模型更为符合蒲河流域的实际特点。在此基础上对蒲河流域进行生态分区,针对各生态分区对生态需水的需求不同,分别估算需水值。其中包括河道基本生态需水、河道蒸发需水,河道渗漏需水等。在考虑生态需求的同时,针对蒲河季节性河流且人工干扰严重的特点,对蒲河流域生态需水量值进行估算。计算结果表明,蒲河流域生态需水总量为4 53846万m³,并具有年内变化显著、受人类活动（污水排放量、人口密度等）影响各分区差距显著等特点,研究成果为今后季节性河流需水量的研究提供了依据     

海底可燃冰开发环境风险多元共治之论证与路径展开

有效规制海底可燃冰开发伴生的多种类型生态环境风险,是保障可燃冰产业健康发展的内在需求。本文的主要目的即在中国现行法律体系规定的多元共治的环境法治理念和制度框架下,研究海底可燃冰开发环境风险多元共治的理论基础、现实必要性及其制度路径。文章主要运用类型化方法来梳理与归纳海底可燃冰开发引致环境风险的具体类型;运用理论分析与价值分析方法,论证海底可燃冰开发环境风险多元共治的必要性;运用法教义学分析、比较分析与系统分析方法,检视与剖析我国传统行政管制模式下的制度体系在规制海底可燃冰开发环境风险中的绩效与利弊,归纳与展开海底可燃冰开发环境风险多元共治的制度路径。本文的基本结论是,传统环境管制模式难以有效治理海底可燃冰开发引致的新型环境风险,当前我国所创新的环境多元共治模式,可以矫正政府单维管制海底可燃冰开发环境风险中的缺陷、弥补"监管之法"在规制海底可燃冰开发环境风险中的疏漏、克服单一行政命令方式在规制海底可燃冰开发环境风险中的困境,系统构建海底可燃冰开发环境风险多元治理体系。在完善行政监管和推进私人治理两个层面对海底可燃冰开发环境风险多元共治的基础上提出具体建议。在完善行政监管层面,我国《环境保护法》《海洋环境保护法》等法律规范经过拓展解释适用,仍然因为规制路径的间接性、零散性而产生内生弊端,亟待专门立法;在推进私人治理层面,多元共治机制分为多元主体参与机制与诉讼机制,应重视通过鼓励环保公益组织、可燃冰行业协会与私人等多元主体采取多元参与和私益诉讼方式,以发挥其在规制海底可燃冰开发环境风险中的综合效用。     

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.     

Comparing environmental issues in Cuba before and after the Special Period: balancing sustainable development and survival

Following the Earth Summit in 1992, Cuba designed and implemented a variety of programs, administrative structures, and public awareness activities to promote sound environmental management and sustainable development. This came shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union and the strengthening of the US blockade in 1990, which resulted in a 35% drop in Cuban GDP. This period, referred to as the Special Period, witnessed a decrease in many environmentally damaging activities both by choice and by necessity, but also resulted in many decisions to resuscitate the Cuban economy. The purpose of this work was to compare and rank the environmental risks Cuba faced before and during the Special Period (1990-2000) using two Comparative environmental risk assessments (CERAs). To do so, an ecosystem integrity risk assessment matrix was constructed with 42 risk end points. The matrix assessed the risk posed by 17 problem areas including air pollution, water contamination, solid waste sites, pesticides and ecosystem degradation. The risks were calculated using five criteria: area affected, vulnerability of affected population, severity of impact, irreversibility of effect and uncertainty. To construct this matrix, both literature reviews and expert interviews in Cuba were conducted in 2000. The results showed a general decrease in risk scores during the Special Period. Before the Special Period, high risks were posed by: terrestrial degradation and industrial wastewater and sludge, followed by freshwater degradation, surface water stressors, and pesticides. After the Special Period, industrial wastewater and sludge and pesticides were no longer high-risk areas, but municipal wastewater and marine coastal degradation ranked higher than previously. Also, the risk endpoints most stressed after 1990 were affected by activities controlled by the government, such as mining and tourism, and lack of infrastructure. Therefore, the claims that public environmental education is the main pathway to sustainable development in Cuba seem uninformed and other management practices should be evaluated.     

安徽省棉花冰雹灾害风险区划研究

雹灾风险区划是雹灾风险研究的重要内容,对制定区域性的雹灾防灾减灾对策具有指导意义。而雹灾风险评价是开展雹灾风险区划的前提和基础。以我国雹灾频发区--安徽省为例,选择其主要经济作物棉花为承灾体,基于区域灾害系统理论和棉花雹灾风险区划数据库,在“E-H-V-R”四维评价基础上,提出了多技术手段和多方法相结合的“3（E、H、V）+1（R）”维的雹灾风险区划方法,编制了安徽省棉花雹灾风险图,将其划分为淮北平原区、江淮平原丘陵区和皖南山区3个一级区,10个二级区和19个三级区,为安徽省棉花雹灾风险管理和防灾减灾工作的开展提供科学依据,同时为其他区域和其他灾害风险区划研究提供方法和技术参考     

Chemical plant risk assessment: Uncertainties and development needs

A brief review is given covering the development of major hazards risk assessment since the Flixborough disaster of 1974, with special reference to the introduction of new regulations. The importance of risk assessment in the management of major hazards is discussed by reference to the Canvey Island studies, and it is suggested that the problem of uncertainties in the estimation of risks by analysis has not been adequately treated. Examples are given to illustrate the magnitude of such uncertainties in the consequence modelling of accidental releases from a chemical plant. In addition to suggested development needs in risk analysis techniques, topics are suggested which call for development in the evaluation and management of risks.     

中国污染场地分类管理程序与方法研究

借鉴发达国家对污染物场地的管理方法,探索了我国污染场地分类管理的程序:从疑似污染场地的申报建档、疑似污染场地的初步调查、场地的危害分级、污染场地的详细调查、污染场地风险评估,到污染场地的治理修复,以及贯穿场地管理始终的环境监测.在上述管理程序中还缺失危害分级的方法,其他步骤已有相关技术文件支持.本文进一步构建了其中场地危害分级的方法:即根据污染源是否存在,污染物的性质、赋存状态、迁移性、含量水平,周围是否有敏感目标及其类型,分成不同的危害级别和管理级别,并实施不同的管理措施.以江苏省八家氯丹、灭蚁灵生产企业场地为例,经初步调查和危害分级,将8个场地分为3类:B类场地(有1个场地)环境介质中无超标污染物检出,但场地上的有害废弃物需要处置;C类场地(包括3个场地)局部有超标污染物检出,但场地不具备详细调查采样和修复的条件,需要对污染区进行隔离处置,以降低人体健康风险;还有D类场地(包括4个场地)需要详细采样以确定污染范围并进行风险评估.根据最后一类4个场地进一步调查评估的结果,并考虑到场地实施修复的经费、技术可行性及场地相关利益方的意见,决定优先对其中1个场地实施修复治理.     

Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials

Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans and the environment. In order to reduce these uncertainties, it is necessary to generate sound scientific data on hazard and exposure by means of relevant frameworks and tools. The development of such approaches to facilitate the risk assessment (RA) of MNs has become a dynamic area of research. The aim of this paper was to review and critically analyse these approaches against a set of relevant criteria. The analysis concluded that none of the reviewed frameworks were able to fulfill all evaluation criteria. Many of the existing modelling tools are designed to provide screening-level assessments rather than to support regulatory RA and risk management. Nevertheless, there is a tendency towards developing more quantitative, higher-tier models, capable of incorporating uncertainty into their analyses. There is also a trend towards developing validated experimental protocols for material identification and hazard testing, reproducible across laboratories. These tools could enable a shift from a costly case-by-case RA of MNs towards a targeted, flexible and efficient process, based on grouping and read-across strategies and compliant with the 3R (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) principles. In order to facilitate this process, it is important to transform the current efforts on developing databases and computational models into creating an integrated data and tools infrastructure to support the risk assessment and management of MNs.     

基于GIS的太湖流域主要生态风险源危险度综合评价研究

以太湖流域主要生态风险源为评价对象,充分考虑多类型多等级风险源作用强度的差异性,构建了风险源危险度评价模型,并在此基础上依据风险源发生机率、强度及作用范围等建立了太湖流域洪涝、干旱、极端气象、土壤侵蚀及污染排放等主要生态风险源的危险度评价指标体系。在ArcGIS技术支持下,创建了太湖流域1 606个网格和24个县市的风险源危险度统计数据库,采用AHP权重法确定指标权重,运用叠加分析、空间分析等技术方法最终实现太湖流域单要素及综合生态风险源危险度的定量评价。结果表明流域内生态风险源的分布存在明显的空间分异规律。其中,高生态风险源危险区集中分布在环太湖北部一带,面积约占流域面积的1172%;较高危险区主要呈“西北 北 东北 东”半环状分布格局,所占面积约2452%,危险度较低的区域集中在流域西南部的苕溪流域一带,面积占1566%。此外,不同区域主导生态风险源组成亦不同,约599%的区域是以污染排放为主导生态风险源,主要分布在镇江 宜兴 长兴 安吉一线以东的地区;2545%的区域主导生态风险源为干旱,主要集中在镇江 宜兴 长兴 安吉一线以西;1244%的区域是以洪涝灾害为主导风险源,集中分布在湖州、宜兴等地;而以水土流失、极端气象灾害作为主导风险源地区相对较为分散,所占比例较小