中国气候变化影响研究概况

介绍了目前我国在未来气候变化影响研究方面的概况,气候影响研究采用的方法多为政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)第二工作组提出的气候变化影响评价方法。未来气候变化影响研究是在大气中C0₂浓度加倍,或气温、降水变化的情景下,进行未来农业、林业、水资源、生态环境以及海平面上升等方面的潜在影响研究,其中有模型研究、实验室研究、宏观研究和适应对策研究等。这些研究采用的未来气候情景多为GCM模型预测的气候情景。      

中国气候变化影响研究概况

介绍了目前我国在未来气候变化影响研究方面的概况，气候影响研究采用的方法多为政府间气候变化专业委员会（ＩＰＣＣ） 第二工作组提出的气候变化影响评价方法。未来气候变化影响研究是在大气中ＣＯ２ 浓度加倍，或气温、降水变化的情景下，进行未来农业、林业、水资源、生态环境以及海平面上升等方面的潜在影响研究，其中有模型研究、实验室研究、宏观研究和适应对策研究等。这些研究采用的未来气候情景多为ＧＣＭ 模型预测的气候情景     

土壤、农业与全球气候变化

本文讨论土壤、农业与全球气候变化的相互关系及相互影响,包括土壤圈、农业生产活动对全球气候变化的影响,以及全球气候变化对农业产生的直接和间接影响.并对引起CO2浓度上升、气温增高和水文条件改变等对世界农业和中国农业的正、负面效应进行预测、评估.     

气候变化与持续农业浅析

从持续农业的内涵出发,讨论了气候变化与持续农业的关系。并从农作物生产力和产量、种植制度、区域农业生产及生产费用等几方面分析了气候变化对中国持续农业的影响。指出温室效应引起的气候变化可能使我国农业生产的不稳定性加剧,自然资源短缺,农业成本增加,对农业生产有一定的不利影响,不应盲目乐观。     

现代气候变化对中国热量资源的影响

在全球气候变化中,我国的气候变化将更复杂,对农业气候资源和农业生产的影响也将更为明显。将农业气候资源作为综合气候信息系统来评估气候变化对农业的影响,并探讨相应对策是十分必要的。本文研究气候变化对中国热量资源的影响,对气候条件与农业气候热量资源进行相关分析,建立回归方程及用蒙特卡罗法进行模拟计算,分析了气候变化可能引起的热量资源变化,评价了这一变化对农业的影响并提出相应对策。     

中英联合项目气候变化对中国农业潜在影响评估项目介绍

2001年,由英国环境、粮食和农村事务部(简称英国环境部)和中华人民共和国科学技术部(简称中国科技部)共同商议,在与气候变化有关的科学和技术问题方面进行双边合作。2001年7月6日中英双方共同开展的气候变化对中国农业潜在影响评估项目的签字仪式在京举行。英国副首相克里斯托克和中国科技部徐冠华部长出席了签字仪式。     

气候变化对鲁西北平原冬小麦产量的影响及对策

气候变化会导致气候资源发生改变,从而引发粮食安全问题.耦合区域气候模式和作物生长模型,可定量分析气候变化导致的作物产量变动,探讨适宜的田间管理应对措施.研究以冬小麦作为研究对象,以我国粮食主产区之一的鲁西北平原作为研究区域,耦合MIROC-RegCM3区域气候模式和CERES-Wheat作物生长模型,开展A1B温室气体排放情景下,气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响及适应措施研究.结果表明,A1B气候情景下,该区域冬小麦潜在产量会有所下降;在现有管理措施的基础上,可通过培育对春化作用依赖较小的品种、 适当提早播期、 增加越冬水灌溉量等方式保证产量,减少年际间变异.该文研究结果可为应对未来气候变暖、 确保粮食安全提供参考.     

基于区域气候模式CCLM的中国极端降水事件预估

选用中国气象局国家气候中心由逐日观测资料插值而成的格点化观测数据集,评估了区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)对中国极端降水的模拟能力,并对2016—2050年中国极端降水事件进行预估。文中主要采用强度-面积-持续时间(Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD)方法,识别了既定时间尺度下具有一定强度和影响面积的极端降水事件,分析未来中国极端降水事件的特征和变化趋势,结果表明:1)区域气候模式CCLM对中国极端降水的空间分布和变化趋势均有较强的模拟能力;2)2016—2050年中国极端降水事件整体呈增加趋势,RCP 8.5情景下变化更为显著,事件强度更大;3)未来不同情景下,均有可能发生强度或影响面积超过基准期最大值的事件,其中影响面积大的事件多发生在华北和东北,强度大的事件多发生在西南和华南。     

气候变化风险评估体系的国际经验以及对我国的启示

气候变化是当今世界面临的最大风险之一。我国是最易受气候变化影响的国家之一,迫切需要构建完善的气候风险治理体系。其首要任务是在气候变化适应战略的框架下建立完善的气候变化风险评估体系。本文通过梳理和分析世界各国气候变化风险评估体系的发展现状以及英国和新西兰的范例,为我国气候变化风险评估体系的建立提出以下建议:首先,建立完善的气候变化风险评估体系,并将评估结果作为制定适应气候变化战略最核心的依据;其次,建立适应规划实施过程的监督以及评估机制;再次,设立气候变化风险评估的中心协调机构,保障评估的高效性以及可靠性;最后,在未来的气候变化综合立法中将气候变化风险评估体系化,从而为这一制度提供最坚实的法律保障。     

空气污染对气候变化影响与反馈的研究评述

气候变化和空气污染都是人类面临的重要环境问题,其影响与反馈已成为空气污染和气候变化领域的研究热点. 总结了空气污染与气候变化相互作用机理,系统梳理了国内外有关空气污染对气候变化影响及反馈的研究成果,并且重点评述了黑碳和硫酸盐气溶胶辐射强迫及其气候效应、气候变化对近地面臭氧和颗粒物影响等领域的研究进展. 分析指出,现阶段尚没有一个能够综合考虑气象条件、排放源、下垫面等诸多因子对空气污染的影响机理过程模型,无法定量描述大气组分在不同气象条件作用下的演变过程等. 提出未来研究中应深化对机理机制的认识,减少模式的不确定性,加强在排放清单的编制、立体观测网的构建、互馈机理的试验、模式的集成耦合等方面的研究.      

Economic impacts of climatic variability and subsidies on European agriculture and observed adaptation strategies

In order to assess agricultural adaptation to climate impacts, new methodologies are needed. The translog distance function allows assessing interactions between different factors, and hence the influence of management on climate impacts. The Farm Accountancy Data Network provides extensive data on farm characteristics of farms throughout the EU15 (i.e. the 15 member states of the European Union before the extension in 2004). These data on farm inputs and outputs from 1990−2003 are coupled with climate data. As climate change is not the only change affecting European agriculture, we also include effects of subsidies and other changes on inputs and outputs of farms throughout Europe. We distinguish several regions and empirically assess (1) climate impacts on farm inputs and outputs in different regions and (2) interactions between inputs and other factors that contribute to the adaptation to these impacts. Changes in production can partly be related to climatic variability and change, but also subsidies and other developments (e.g. technology, markets) are important. Results show that impacts differ per region, and that ‘actual impacts’ cannot be explicitly separated into ‘potential impacts’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ as often proposed for vulnerability assessment. Farmers adapt their practices to prevailing conditions and continuously adapt to changing conditions. Therefore, ‘potential impacts’ will not be observed in practice, leaving it as a mainly theoretical concept. Factors that contribute to the adaptation also differ per region. In some regions more fertilizers or more irrigation can mitigate impacts, while in other regions this amplifies impacts. To project impacts of future climate change on agriculture, current farm management strategies and their influence on current production should be considered. This clearly asks for improved integration of biophysical and economic models.     

气候变化对中国黄淮海农业区小麦生产影响模拟研究

研究首先利用1980-2000年黄淮海农业区10个站点的农业数据对CER ES-W heat动态机理作物模型进行详细的验证,然后将CERESW-heat模型与两个全球气候模式(G ISS和H adley)结合,同时考虑到CO2对小麦的直接施肥作用,模拟了黄淮海农业区10个站点在IPCC SR ES A 2和B2两个气候情景下雨养和灌溉小麦产量和水分利用的变化趋势。得到如下结论:在不考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,黄淮海农业区雨养小麦全面减产,空间分布特点是西部减产幅度大,东部减产幅度小;在充分灌溉的情况下,灌溉小麦产量维持了现有水平,但灌溉水量增加。因此,在未来该地区水资源短缺的情况下,如何合理利用有限的水资源将成为黄淮海农业区主要面临的问题。在考虑CO2直接肥效的情况下,雨养和灌溉小麦产量都全面增产,雨养小麦的增产幅度明显偏高,灌溉小麦约增产10%～30%,但CO 2的肥效能否充分实现还需要进一步研究证明。     

气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的影响

借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验对气象水文序列进行一致性分析,划分基准期（1961—1979年）和影响期（① 1980—1989年、② 1990—1999年、③ 2000—2016年）,利用基准期校准的可变下渗容量（VIC）模型,采用步进式方法,探究气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的波动影响过程。结果表明:研究区近56年年均气温显著升高,年降水量无明显变化趋势,流域年径流量下降趋势明显,季节尺度上流域非汛期降水量增加显著。气候变化和人类活动均会对径流产生显著影响且作用机理复杂,步进式方法对影响机理的研究较传统方法更能体现其变化过程;在降水丰沛的影响 ② 期,冬季降水量增加会显著增加流域径流量,而在降水略少的影响 ① 期和 ③ 期,蒸发量增加以及土壤含水量降低使得流域径流减少;人类活动耗水在影响 ① 期和 ③ 期引起流域径流减少并且影响作用逐渐增强,影响 ② 期由于城镇化和耕地扩张使得流域产流能力增强导致径流增加。深入研究气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响机制,可为流域水资源管理和规划提供理论依据。     

Modeling of the Mendoza river watershed as a tool to study climate change impacts on water availability

Unmitigated anthropogenic climate change is set to exacerbate current stresses on water resources management and creates the need to develop strategies to face climate change impacts on water resources, especially in the long term. Insufficient information on possible impacts on water availability limits the organization and promotion of efforts to adapt and improve the resilience and efficiency of water systems. To document the potential impacts of climate change in the region of Mendoza, Argentina, we perform a hydrological modeling of the Mendoza River watershed using a SWAT model and project climate change scenarios to observe hydrological changes. The results show the impact of higher temperature on glaciers as river flow increases due to glacier melting; at the same time, runoff decreases as precipitation is reduced. Furthermore, the runoff timing is shifted and an earlier melting becomes more important in more pronounced climate change scenarios. Scenarios show a reduction in water availability that ranges between 1 and 10%. An additional scenario under stronger climate change conditions without glaciers data shows a reduction of the river flow by up to 11.8%. This scenario would correspond to a future situation in which glaciers have completely melted. These situations would imply a reduction in the water availability and the possibility of future unsatisfied water uses, in particular for irrigation, which received most of the available water in Mendoza, on which agricultural activities and regional economy depends.     

气候变化及人类活动对地表径流改变的贡献率及其量化方法研究进展

地表径流的变化受气候变化和人类活动的双重驱动力作用,定量评估气候变化及人类活动对地表径流变化的影响对水资源管理具有重大意义。论文以水文循环过程为主线,分过程阐述气候变化及人类活动影响地表径流发生变化的机制机理,对各种量化二者对地表径流变化贡献率的方法进行比较,然后分析全球部分流域气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化影响的差异。研究结果表明：1）气候变化和人类活动参与水文循环的各个过程之中,不同水文过程中气候变化和人类活动影响地表径流变化的途径不同;2）不同量化方法的适用范围和条件不同,不同方法对同一流域的研究结果可能不一致;3）全球不同流域间气候变化和人类活动对地表径流变化贡献率存在明显区域差异。现阶段,综合多种突变检验方法有利于提高识别地表径流突变点的准确率;消除干扰因素（如气象水文等数据选取、模型方法参数设置和方法本身不确定性）有利于提高同一流域不同量化方法评估结果的一致性;如何更好地耦合基于物理的水文模型方法和基于数学的经验统计方法来量化二者对地表径流变化的贡献率是未来研究的重点。     

气候变化对湿地景观格局的影响研究综述

气候变化是影响湿地景观格局变化的主要自然因素。文章从气候变化对湿地水资源面积、湿地土地利用格局、湿地植被空间格局及湿地生物多样性格局的影响研究等方面进行了综述,并对完善气候变化下湿地景观格局变化的研究方法和技术手段进行了探讨。指出:应用气候模型进行未来气候预测时,应合理选择气候变化情景,并确保不同模型的时空尺度匹配;应用"3S"技术提取湿地类型信息、观测湿地土地覆盖变化时要确保信息的精度,不同来源的数据必须采取制图综合等手段;实现气候变化下湿地景观结构与生态过程相结合的动态格局分析。     

气候变化对中国海洋经济可持续发展的影响

为评估气候变化及实施减排政策对中国海洋经济的影响,本文构建了中国海洋经济社会经济核算矩阵(marine social accounting matrix,MSAM),并以此为数据基础构建中国海洋经济可计算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型,并将该模型与气候变化影响模型相结合,从而实现了从气候变化对自然系统的影响到对经济系统影响的转化。论文设计了实施和不实施温室气体减排两种政策时的可能的6种气候变化情景。各情景的模拟分析表明:海平面上升同时考虑天文潮最高潮位、同时考虑最大台风暴潮和最大天文潮耦合影响两种子情景下,中国实施减排政策对沿海GDP的影响要分别比不实施减排政策低0.19%和0.12%;海平面上升叠加天文潮、风暴潮3种子情景下,实施减排政策对海洋经济的影响要分别比不实施减排政策低1.67%、0.72%、0.37%。     

Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Environmental and societal factors such asair quality, water quality andavailability, land use changes andexpanding urbanization are alreadyaffecting human health and welfare,agriculture, and natural ecosystems in theMidwestern United States. Over thiscentury, these existing stresses willlikely be exacerbated by climate changesresulting from human activities. It isessential that policy decisions aimed atpreserving the well-being of a region beinformed by a good understanding of theregion's climate, how climate might change,and the uncertainties inherent in futureprojections. Recent updates in climatemodeling expertise and an expanded view ofpossible non-intervention emissionscenarios have narrowed the range of changethat can be expected over the Midwestthroughout the next century in some ways,while broadening it in others. In contrastto previous studies, which generallyconsider a mid-range scenario for futureemissions, this study presents the range ofchange that would result from low to highscenarios for climate change. In this waywe account for uncertainties inanthropogenic forcing on climate change inthe region and quantify the potentialeffects of human actions on future climate.This analysis also combines the latestclimate model projections with historicalrecords of observed climate over the pastcentury, effectively placing potentialchanges in extreme event frequencies suchas heavy rainfall events and temperaturethreshold exceedances within the context ofobserved variability over the past century.The purpose of this study is to provide anupdated picture of the potential impacts ofclimate change on the Midwest to inform theimpact assessment and policy developmentcommunity. From the magnitude of thechanges projected by this study, it isclear that these must be included in futurepolicy decisions in order to ensure thesuccessful adaptation and survival ofexisting human and natural systems in theMidwest.     

Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the European agro-forestry sector: a literature survey

Over the last 20 years, climate change has become an increasing concern for scientists, public opinions and policy makers. Due to the pervasive nature of its impacts for many important aspects of human life, climate change is likely to influence and be influenced by the most diverse policy or management choices. This is particularly true for those interventions affecting agriculture and forestry: they are strongly dependent on climate phenomena, but also contribute to climate evolution being sources of and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper offers a survey of the existing literature assessing cost-effectiveness and efficiency of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies or the effects of broader economic reforms in the agricultural and forestry sectors. The focus is mainly on European countries. Different methodological approaches, research questions addressed and results are examined. The main findings are that agriculture can potentially provide emissions reduction at a competitive cost, mainly with methane abatement, while carbon sequestration seems more cost-effective with appropriate forest management measures. Afforestation, cropland management and bioenergy are less economically viable measures due to competition with other land use. Mitigation policies should be carefully designed either to balance costs with expected benefits in terms of social welfare. Regional variability is one of the main drawbacks to fully assess the cost-effectiveness of different measures. Integration of models to take into account both social welfare and spatial heterogeneity seems to be the frontier of the next model generation.     

Effects of bioenergy policies and targets on European wetland restoration options

The EU is committed to combat climate change and to increase security of its energy supply. Bioenergy from forestry and agriculture plays a key role for both. Concurrently, the EU agreed to halt the loss of biodiversity within its member states. To fulfil the biodiversity target more nature conservation and restoration sites need to be designated. There are arising concerns that an increased cultivation of bioenergy crops will decrease the land available for nature reserves and for “traditional” agriculture and forestry. To assess the role of bioenergy in light of possible negative impacts on ecosystems, the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM) assesses simultaneously economic and environmental aspects of land use. This study contributes to the assessment by analyzing the effect of bioenergy production on European wetland allocations by incorporating the spatial wetland distribution model SWEDI into EUFASOM. Results show that bioenergy targets increase land competition and thus marginal costs of wetland preservation but also of food prices. The designation of national wetland conservation targets, on the other hand, stimulates land use intensification in countries without these targets and here only a transfer of environmental stresses takes place. The model is able to illustrate regional differences of results.