Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.     

Air pollution and climate gradients in western Oregon and Washington indicated by epiphytic macrolichens

Human activity is changing air quality and climate in the US Pacific Northwest. In a first application of non-metric multidimensional scaling to a large-scale, framework dataset, we modeled lichen community response to air quality and climate gradients at 1416 forested 0.4 ha plots. Model development balanced polluted plots across elevation, forest type and precipitation ranges to isolate pollution response. Air and climate scores were fitted for remaining plots, classed by lichen bioeffects, and mapped. Projected 2040 temperatures would create climate zones with no current analogue. Worst air scores occurred in urban-industrial and agricultural valleys and represented 24% of the landscape. They were correlated with: absence of sensitive lichens, enhancement of nitrophilous lichens, mean wet deposition of ammonium >0.06 mg l(-1), lichen nitrogen and sulfur concentrations >0.6% and 0.07%, and SO(2) levels harmful to sensitive lichens. The model can detect changes in air quality and climate by scoring re-measurements.     

Adapting air quality management for a changing climate: Survey of local districts in California

Air quality can be affected by weather and thus is sensitive to a changing climate. Wildfire (influenced by weather), consecutive high temperature summer days, and other extreme events are projected to become more severe and frequent with climate change. These may create challenging conditions for managing air quality despite policy targets to reduce precursor and pollutant emissions. Although extreme events are becoming more intense and interest in climate adaptation is increasing among public health practitioners, little attention in scholarly literature and policy covers climate adaptation for air quality governance. Understanding the management and managers’ perspectives at the local level provides insight about the needs for climate adaptation, including their adaptation status, perspectives, responsibilities, and roles. This study explores local manager perspectives and experiences of managing air quality within a changing climate as one puzzle piece to understand the gap in climate adaptation within the air quality sector. A broader goal is to contribute to the discussion of developing a multi-jurisdictional vision for reducing the impacts of air quality in a changing climate. In 2016 local air quality district managers in California were invited to participate in an online survey of 39 questions focused on extreme event impacts on air quality. The questionnaire focused on present air quality threats and extreme event challenges, adaptation status and strategies, adaptive capacities, perceived barriers to adaptation, and jurisdictional responsibilities and roles. Over 85 percent of the 35 local air districts in California participated in the survey, which represents 80 percent of the state’s population. High awareness and knowledge of climate change among local managers indicates they are ready to adopt and take action on policies that would support climate adaptation, but barriers reported suggests they may need policies and adequate funding to take action and make necessary changes.

Implications: Downscaled global climate models project an increasing severity and frequency of extreme events. In the southwestern United States, these include wildfire, heat events, and dry periods, among others, all of which can place an extra burden on air quality managers and emitters to achieve air quality standards even as they reduce emissions. Despite climate change presenting increasing challenges to meet air quality standards, in the southwestern United States, policy and action to mitigate these impacts have been surprisingly absent. California presents a valuable case study on the topic because of its historic leadership in air quality management for the United States and also because of its initiatives in combating climate change. Yet still we found that adaptation has not been incorporated into air quality management thus far, but local managers seem sufficiently knowledgeable and willing.     

Advances of air pollution science: From forest decline to multiple-stress effects on forest ecosystem services

Over the past 20 years, the focus of forest science on air pollution has moved from forest decline to a holistic framework of forest health, and from the effects on forest production to the ecosystem services provided by forest ecosystems. Hence, future research should focus on the interacting factorial impacts and resulting antagonistic and synergistic responses of forest trees and ecosystems. The synergistic effects of air pollution and climatic changes, in particular elevated ozone, altered nitrogen, carbon and water availability, must be key issues for research. Present evidence suggests air pollution will become increasingly harmful to forests under climate change, which requires integration amongst various stressors (abiotic and biotic factors, including competition, parasites and fire), effects on forest services (production, biodiversity protection, soil protection, sustained water balance, socio-economical relevance) and assessment approaches (research, monitoring, modeling) to be fostered.     

Atmospheric composition change – global and regional air quality

Air quality transcends all scales with in the atmosphere from the local to the global with handovers and feedbacks at each scale interaction. Air quality has manifold effects on health, ecosystems, heritage and climate. In this review the state of scientific understanding in relation to global and regional air quality is outlined. The review discusses air quality, in terms of emissions, processing and transport of trace gases and aerosols. New insights into the characterization of both natural and anthropogenic emissions are reviewed looking at both natural (e.g. dust and lightning) as well as plant emissions. Trends in anthropogenic emissions both by region and globally are discussed as well as biomass burning emissions. In terms of chemical processing the major air quality elements of ozone, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and aerosols are covered. A number of topics are presented as a way of integrating the process view into the atmospheric context; these include the atmospheric oxidation efficiency, halogen and HO_x chemistry, nighttime chemistry, tropical chemistry, heat waves, megacities, biomass burning and the regional hot spot of the Mediterranean. New findings with respect to the transport of pollutants across the scales are discussed, in particular the move to quantify the impact of long-range transport on regional air quality. Gaps and research questions that remain intractable are identified. The review concludes with a focus of research and policy questions for the coming decade. In particular, the policy challenges for concerted air quality and climate change policy (co-benefit) are discussed.     

Air pollution, forest condition and forest decline in Southern Europe: an overview

Over the last decades much of the work on the impact of air pollution on forests in Europe has concentrated on central and northern countries. The southern part of Europe has received far less attention, although air pollutants-especially the photochemical ones-can reach concentrations likely to have adverse effects on forest vegetation. Although international forest condition surveys present serious problems where data consistency is concerned, they reveal considerable year-by-year species-specific fluctuations rather than a large-scale forest decline. Cases of obvious decline related to environmental factors are well circumscribed: (1) the deterioration of some coastal forests due to the action of polluted seaspray; (2) the deterioration of reforestation projects, especially conifers, mainly due to the poor ecological compatibility between species and site; and (3) the decline of deciduous oaks in southern Italy and of evergreen oaks in the Iberian peninsula apparently due to the interaction of climate stresses and pests and diseases. However, besides obvious deterioration, changes in environmental factors can provoke situations of more subtle stress. The most sensitive stands are Mediterranean conifer forests and mesophile forests of the Mediterranean-montane plane growing at the edges of the natural ecological distribution. Evergreen sclerophyllous forests appear less sensitive to variations in climatic parameters, since they can adapt quite well to both drought and the action of UV-B rays. Several experiments were carried out to test the sensitivity of Mediterranean forest species to air pollutants. Most of those experiments used seedlings of different species treated with pollutant concentrations too high to be realistic, so it is difficult to derive adequate information on the response of adult trees in field conditions. Ozone has been proved to cause foliar injury in a variety of native forest species in different Southern European countries, while the effects of other pollutants (e.g. nitrogen, sulphur, acidic deposition) are less obvious and likely to be very localized. In the case of ozone, visible symptoms were almost completely missed by large-scale surveys and-at the same time-non-visible symptoms are suspected to be even more widespread than the visible ones. Owing to this and to the complex relationships existing between species sensitivity, ozone exposure and doses, length of the vegetative periods, influence of climatic and edaphic condition on the tree's response, the impacted areas are yet to be identified. Therefore, the large-scale impact of air pollutants on the forests of Southern Europe remains largely unknown, until more specific investigations are carried out.     

Wildfire and prescribed burning impacts on air quality in the United States

ABSTRACT

Air quality impacts from wildfires have been dramatic in recent years, with millions of people exposed to elevated and sometimes hazardous fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) concentrations for extended periods. Fires emit particulate matter (PM) and gaseous compounds that can negatively impact human health and reduce visibility. While the overall trend in U.S. air quality has been improving for decades, largely due to implementation of the Clean Air Act, seasonal wildfires threaten to undo this in some regions of the United States. Our understanding of the health effects of smoke is growing with regard to respiratory and cardiovascular consequences and mortality. The costs of these health outcomes can exceed the billions already spent on wildfire suppression. In this critical review, we examine each of the processes that influence wildland fires and the effects of fires, including the natural role of wildland fire, forest management, ignitions, emissions, transport, chemistry, and human health impacts. We highlight key data gaps and examine the complexity and scope and scale of fire occurrence, estimated emissions, and resulting effects on regional air quality across the United States. The goal is to clarify which areas are well understood and which need more study. We conclude with a set of recommendations for future research.     

Impact of ozone on Mediterranean forests: a review

Ozone impact on Mediterranean forests remains largely under-investigated, despite strong photochemical activity and harmful effects on crops. As representative of O3 impacts on Mediterranean vegetation, this paper reviews the current knowledge about O3 and forests in Italy. The intermediate position between Africa and European mid-latitudes creates a complex patchwork of climate and vegetation. Available data from air quality monitoring stations and passive samplers suggest O3 levels regularly exceed the critical level (CL) for forests. In contrast, relationships between O3 exposure and effects (crown transparency, radial growth and foliar visible symptoms) often fail. Despite limitations in the study design or underestimation of the CL can also affect this discrepancy, the effects of site factors and plant ecology suggest Mediterranean forest vegetation is adapted to face oxidative stress, including O3. Implications for risk assessment (flux-based CL, level III, non-stomatal deposition) are discussed.     

Forest responses to tropospheric ozone and global climate change: an analysis

In this paper an analysis is provided on: what we know, what we need to know, and what we need to do, to further our understanding of the relationships between tropospheric ozone (O(3)), global climate change and forest responses. The relationships between global geographic distributions of forest ecosystems and potential geographic regions of high photochemical smog by the year 2025 AD are described. While the emphasis is on the effects of tropospheric O(3) on forest ecosystems, discussion is presented to understand such effects in the context of global climate change. One particular strong point of this paper is the audit of published surface O(3) data by photochemical smog region that reveals important forest/woodland geographic regions where little or no O(3) data exist even though the potential threat to forests in those regions appears to be large. The concepts and considerations relevant to the examination of ecosystem responses as a whole, rather than simply tree stands alone are reviewed. A brief argument is provided to stimulate the modification of the concept of simple cause and effect relationships in viewing total ecosystems. Our knowledge of O(3) exposure and its effects on the energy, nutrient and hydrological flow within the ecosystem are described. Modeling strategies for such systems are reviewed. A discussion of responses of forests to potential multiple climatic changes is provided. An important concept in this paper is that changes in water exchange processes throughout the hydrological cycle can be used as early warning indicators of forest responses to O(3). Another strength of this paper is the integration of information on structural and functional processes of ecosystems and their responses to O(3). An admitted weakness of this analysis is that the information on integrated ecosystem responses is based overwhelmingly on the San Bernardino Forest ecosystem research program of the 1970s because of a lack of similar studies. In the final analysis, it is recommended that systems ecology be applied in examining the joint effects of O(3), carbon dioxide and ultraviolet-B radiation on forest ecosystems.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport

Emissions from land transport, and from road transport in particular, have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past, present and future emissions from land transport, of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality, on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation.In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however, pollutant emissions have been growing strongly, adversely affecting many populations. In addition, ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here.In the future, road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary, emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently, road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both, passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential, but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels, a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades.     

Air Pollution Research Needs: Herbaceous and Ornamental Plants and Agriculturally Generated Pollutants

Effects of various air pollutants on economically important crops and ornamentals have been studied since before the turn of the century.

Summaries of this research on the effects of air pollutants, that have appeared in criteria documents developed by the Environmental Protection Agency, should be reviewed with respect to differences in plant susceptibility found in various regions of the country. These susceptibility differences are associated with variations in both environmental conditions and distribution of pollutants. Research efforts on air pollution injury to vegetation have often been poorly coordinated leaving many gaps in our knowledge. A better assessment of the impact of air pollution on vegetation is required to attain realistic controls for pollutants affecting agriculture. Research areas of major concern include: baseline information on effects of pollutants on agricultural productivity; dose-response information to support predictive mathematical models for acute and chronic studies of growth, yield, and quality effects; effects of pollutants interacting with other pollutants and with insects and plant diseases; mechanisms of pollutant action; genetic changes related to pollutant effects; effects of environmental stresses on plant response to pollutants; evaluation of plants including soil microbes as pollutant sinks; development of techniques to minimize pollutant effects; and, the effects of agricultural chemicals as air pollutants. There is a need for studies that consider the whole plant in its natural environment. Conceptual models interrelating pollutant effects and their interactions and ultimately mathematical models will be needed to develop an intelligent approach to land management. The effects of agriculturally produced pollutants on plants and other receptors must be identified and quantified.     

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Implications: Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.     

Oil spill response capabilities and technologies for ice-covered Arctic marine waters: A review of recent developments and established practices

Renewed political and commercial interest in the resources of the Arctic, the reduction in the extent and thickness of sea ice, and the recent failings that led to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, have prompted industry and its regulatory agencies, governments, local communities and NGOs to look at all aspects of Arctic oil spill countermeasures with fresh eyes. This paper provides an overview of present oil spill response capabilities and technologies for ice-covered waters, as well as under potential future conditions driven by a changing climate. Though not an exhaustive review, we provide the key research results for oil spill response from knowledge accumulated over many decades, including significant review papers that have been prepared as well as results from recent laboratory tests, field programmes and modelling work. The three main areas covered by the review are as follows: oil weathering and modelling; oil detection and monitoring; and oil spill response techniques.     

Increasing the Use of Earth Science Data and Models in Air Quality Management

In 2010, the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated the Air Quality Applied Science Team (AQAST) as a 5-year, $17.5-million award with 19 principal investigators. AQAST aims to increase the use of Earth science products in air quality-related research and to help meet air quality managers’ information needs. We conducted a Web-based survey and a limited number of follow-up interviews to investigate federal, state, tribal, and local air quality managers’ perspectives on usefulness of Earth science data and models, and on the impact AQAST has had. The air quality managers we surveyed identified meeting the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ozone and particulate matter, emissions from mobile sources, and interstate air pollution transport as top challenges in need of improved information. Most survey respondents viewed inadequate coverage or frequency of satellite observations, data uncertainty, and lack of staff time or resources as barriers to increased use of satellite data by their organizations. Managers who have been involved with AQAST indicated that the program has helped build awareness of NASA Earth science products, and assisted their organizations with retrieval and interpretation of satellite data and with application of global chemistry and climate models. AQAST has also helped build a network between researchers and air quality managers with potential for further collaborations.

Implications: NASA’s Air Quality Applied Science Team (AQAST) aims to increase the use of satellite data and global chemistry and climate models for air quality management purposes, by supporting research and tool development projects of interest to both groups. Our survey and interviews of air quality managers indicate they found value in many AQAST projects and particularly appreciated the connections to the research community that the program facilitated. Managers expressed interest in receiving continued support for their organizations’ use of satellite data, including assistance in retrieving and interpreting data from future geostationary platforms meant to provide more frequent coverage for air quality and other applications.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO₂, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO₂ is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO₂ equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO₂ and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides.     

Health effects of fine particulate air pollution: lines that connect

Efforts to understand and mitigate thehealth effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollutionhave a rich and interesting history. This review focuseson six substantial lines of research that have been pursued since 1997 that have helped elucidate our understanding about the effects of PM on human health. There hasbeen substantial progress in the evaluation of PM health effects at different time-scales of exposure and in the exploration of the shape of the concentration-response function. There has also been emerging evidence of PM-related cardiovascular health effects and growing knowledge regarding interconnected general pathophysiological pathways that link PM exposure with cardiopulmonary morbidiity and mortality. Despite important gaps in scientific knowledge and continued reasons for some skepticism, a comprehensive evaluation of the research findings provides persuasive evidence that exposure to fine particulate air pollution has adverse effects on cardiopulmonaryhealth. Although much of this research has been motivated by environmental public health policy, these results have important scientific, medical, and public health implications that are broader than debates over legally mandated air quality standards.     

Integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: a northern hemisphere perspective

Many air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, contribute to radiative balance, interact in the atmosphere, and affect ecosystems. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects. We review the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on northern hemisphere forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests may result in more effective research, management and monitoring as well as better integration of local, national and global environmental policies.     

Are Bavarian Forests (southern Germany) at risk from ground-level ozone? Assessment using exposure and flux based ozone indices

Exposure and flux-based indices of O₃ risk were compared, at 19 forest locations across Bavaria in southern Germany from 2002 to 2005; leaf symptoms on mature beech trees found at these locations were also examined for O₃ injury. O₃ flux modelling was performed using continuously recorded O₃ concentrations in combination with meteorological and soil moisture data collected from Level II forest sites. O₃ measurements at nearby rural open-field sites proved appropriate as surrogates in cases where O₃ data were lacking at forest sites (with altitude-dependent average differences of about 10% between O₃ concentrations). Operational thresholds of biomass loss for both O₃ indices were exceeded at the majority of the forest locations, suggesting similar risk under long-term average climate conditions. However, exposure-based indices estimated higher O₃ risk during dry years as compared to the flux-based approach. In comparison, minor O₃-like leaf injury symptoms were detected only at a few of the forest sites investigated. Relationships between flux-based risk thresholds and tree response need to be established for mature forest stands for validation of predicted growth reductions under the prevailing O₃ regimes.     

Consequence of altered nitrogen cycles in the coupled human and ecological system under changing climate: The need for long-term and site-based research

Anthropogenically derived nitrogen (N) has a central role in global environmental changes, including climate change, biodiversity loss, air pollution, greenhouse gas emission, water pollution, as well as food production and human health. Current understanding of the biogeochemical processes that govern the N cycle in coupled human–ecological systems around the globe is drawn largely from the long-term ecological monitoring and experimental studies. Here, we review spatial and temporal patterns and trends in reactive N emissions, and the interactions between N and other important elements that dictate their delivery from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems, and the impacts of N on biodiversity and human society. Integrated international and long-term collaborative studies covering research gaps will reduce uncertainties and promote further understanding of the nitrogen cycle in various ecosystems.     

Health Effects of Fine Particulate Air Pollution: Lines that Connect

Abstract

Efforts to understand and mitigate the health effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollution have a rich and interesting history. This review focuses on six substantial lines of research that have been pursued since 1997 that have helped elucidate our understanding about the effects of PM on human health. There has been substantial progress in the evaluation of PM health effects at different time-scales of exposure and in the exploration of the shape of the concentration-response function. There has also been emerging evidence of PM-related cardiovascular health effects and growing knowledge regarding interconnected general pathophysiological pathways that link PM exposure with cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. Despite important gaps in scientific knowledge and continued reasons for some skepticism, a comprehensive evaluation of the research findings provides persuasive evidence that exposure to fine particulate air pollution has adverse effects on cardiopulmonary health. Although much of this research has been motivated by environmental public health policy, these results have important scientific, medical, and public health implications that are broader than debates over legally mandated air quality standards.