An evaluation of risk assessment framework for industrial accidents in India

Due to rapid industrialization, with high population density and constraints of land, it is expected that level of risks arising from the hazardous industries will increase in India in the coming decades. However, 30 years after the Bhopal accident (1984), except a few discrete regulations, there is as yet no integrated system for assessing and managing risks arising out of these hazardous industries in India. The gravity of aspects related to the management of industrial risk still remains crucially important. In particular, there is no standard guideline on risk analysis methodology, acceptability or tolerability criteria, nor is there an accident database or a risk reduction strategy for the areas where risk levels are already high. On top of this, there are technical and legislative gaps in the institutional framework to implement any of the above mentioned issues. With the backdrop of the Bhopal gas tragedy, the objective of this paper is therefore to evaluate the effectiveness of a comprehensive risk assessment framework for the emerging economy of India, in order to control and/or to reduce the risk level that exists. In this context, regulations and policies pertaining to industrial risk assessment were reviewed.     

Root causes of hydrocarbon leaks on offshore petroleum installations

Hydrocarbon leaks on offshore installations may result in severe consequences to personnel, to the environment and to assets. In order to prevent such leaks, it is crucial to understand their root causes. The objective of this paper is to study the circumstances of hydrocarbon leaks on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). In the study, all reported hydrocarbon leaks from process inventories on all offshore installations on the NCS, with an initial leak rate higher than 0.1 kg/s in the period 2008–2014, have been considered. This includes 78 hydrocarbon leaks, of which about 60% have occurred during manual intervention on normally pressurized systems. The dominating activity when leaks occur is preventive maintenance. A significant fraction of the leaks occur during the preparation for maintenance; such a preparation is typically carried out during the night shift. About half of the leaks are associated with wellhead area and manifolds, separation and compression systems. A substantial fraction of the leaks can be associated with verification faults, dominated by the failure to comply with procedural requirements that are needed to carry out independent verification.     

Pipeline leakage detection and isolation: An integrated approach of statistical and wavelet feature extraction with multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)

Leakage diagnosis of hydrocarbon pipelines can prevent environmental and financial losses. This work proposes a novel method that not only detects the occurrence of a leakage fault, but also suggests its location and severity. The OLGA software is employed to provide the pipeline inlet pressure and outlet flow rates as the training data for the Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system. The FDI system is comprised of a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) classifier with various feature extraction methods including the statistical techniques, wavelet transform, and a fusion of both methods. Once different leakage scenarios are considered and the preprocessing methods are done, the proposed FDI system is applied to a 20-km pipeline in southern Iran (Goldkari-Binak pipeline) and a promising severity and location detectability (a correct classification rate of 92%) and a low False Alarm Rate (FAR) were achieved.     

Validation of the UN test method N.5

Many substances react with water in such a way that flammable gases are formed. For transport issues this reaction may possess a considerable hazard especially if the cargo is wetted by rain or by water from other sources. In the UN Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods these kinds of problems are addressed. The UN test N.5 “Test method for substances which in contact with water emit flammable gases” corresponds to this hazard. Classification according to the test method is done by measurement of the gas evolution rate of the flammable gas by any suitable procedure. At BAM a gravimetric approach is used to measure the gas evolution rate. In this paper we present the evaluation of the apparatus by means of an absolute calibration routine utilizing a reaction where a known amount of gas is produced as well as the evaluation of important parameters influencing the gas evolution rate using different substances. It can be shown that the apparatus is capable of measuring absolute gas volumes as low as 6 mL with an acceptable error of about 17% as determined from the reaction of Mg with demineralized water.     

A CFD based explosion risk analysis methodology using time varying release rates in dispersion simulations

A full probabilistic Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) is commonly used to establish overpressure exceedance curves for offshore facilities. This involves modelling a large number of gas dispersion and explosion scenarios. Capturing the time dependant build up and decay of a flammable gas cloud size along with its shape and location are important parameters that can govern the results of an ERA. Dispersion simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are generally carried out in detailed ERA studies to obtain these pieces of information. However, these dispersion simulations are typically modelled with constant release rates leading to steady state results. The basic assumption used here is that the flammable gas cloud build up rate from these constant release rate dispersion simulations would mimic the actual transient cloud build up rate from a time varying release rate. This assumption does not correctly capture the physical phenomena of transient gas releases and their subsequent dispersion and may lead to very conservative results. This in turn results in potential over design of facilities with implications on time, materials and cost of a project.In the current work, an ERA methodology is proposed that uses time varying release rates as an input in the CFD dispersion simulations to obtain the fully transient flammable gas cloud build-up and decay, while ensuring the total time required to perform the ERA study is also reduced. It was found that the proposed ERA methodology leads to improved accuracy in dispersion results, steeper overpressure exceedance curves and a significant reduction in the Design Accidental Load (DAL) values whilst still maintaining some conservatism and also reducing the total time required to perform an ERA study.     

Uncertainties in a risk management context in early phases of offshore petroleum field development

The current risk management approach for the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry came into effect in 2001 and has been stable with minor changes for 15 years. Relatively few new installations were slated for development until quite recently, and several new projects have been started in the last few years. The paper considers the risk management approach in the pre-FEED phase and builds on two case studies selected from the most recent cases. These case studies have been evaluated with respect to how uncertainties are considered in the early phase, based on the submission of the Plan for Development and Operation, their evaluations by authorities and the supporting documents. Both case studies involve new concepts for which there is no experience from similar environments and/or water depths. In spite of what could have been expected, the case studies conclude that uncertainties have not been in focus at all during concept development. This appears to be definitely the case for the licensees, but also to be the case for the authorities. Some suggestions are presented for what could have been considered by the licensees and authorities.     

Distributed generation by energy from waste technology: A life cycle perspective

Municipal Solid Waste in general and its organic fraction in particular is a potential renewable and non-seasonal resource. In this work, a life cycle assessment has been performed to evaluate the environmental impacts of two future scenarios using biogas produced from the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) to supply energy to a group of dwellings, respectively comprising distributed generation using solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) micro-CHP systems and condensing boilers. The London Borough of Greenwich is taken as the reference case study. The system is designed to assess how much energy demand can be met and what is the best way to use the digestible waste for distributed energy purposes.The system is compared with two alternative scenarios fuelled by natural gas: a reference scenario, where the electricity is supplied by the grid and the heat is supplied from condensing boilers, and a fuel cell micro-CHP system. The results show that, although OFMSW alone can only supply between 1% and 4% of the total energy demand of the Borough, a saving of ∼130 tonnes of CO₂ eq per year per dwelling equipped with micro-CHP is still achievable compared with the reference scenario. This is primarily due to the surplus electricity produced by the fuel cell when the micro-CHP unit is operated to meet the heat demand. Use of biogas to produce heat only is therefore a less desirable option compared with combined heat and power production. Further investigation is required to identify locally available feedstock other than OFMSW in order to increase the proportion of energy demand that can be met in this way.     

Tools for an enhanced solvent properties screening in the early stages of pharmaceutical process development

The objective of this research was the implementation of tools for the evaluation of solvents trough property screening in the early stages of process development. An important feature of the tools is that the implementation of indexes, scores, or weights is avoided. Information already available from the literature was stored in a database in order to turn raw data into decision making information. As a result, a solvent radar chart, a solvent representation table, and a solvent telescopying tool were developed in an ASP.NET application. The synthesis of Propranolol was used as study case in order to explore the selection of solvents in the early stages of process development. The replacement of diethyl ether was possible in the extraction step, while solvent choices were detected for potential telescoping for extraction and crystallisation steps. Solubility was found as a critical parameter in telescoping analysis. The methodology proposed enhanced the view towards a more holistic perspective and a more robust solvent screening process. As a consequence, the next steps into solvent evaluation and process development can be reduced.     

Quantitative assessment in safety reports of the consequences from the detonation of solid explosives

Safety reports are mandatory documents in member states of European Union whenever any threshold limits of amounts of either stored or processed hazardous substances are exceeded. After a short introduction to EU Seveso Directives on major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances and to the transposition and implementation by member states, with a brief comment on last 2012/18/EU Directive (also known as Seveso III directive), the paper focuses on drafting of safety reports for industrial activities involving solid explosives. Specifically, the quantitative assessment of consequences from detonation is tackled respect to the side-on overpressure and the debris production. Both direct and inverse problems are illustrated to determine respectively the overpressure value at a given distance, and the explosive amount that allows respecting the regulations. Their solution is based on either analytic or numerical techniques and being based on recent scientific publications on the matter either evaluates or zeroes nonlinear algebraic equations. The availability of these equations avoids grounding the consequences assessment on diagrams and nomograms that otherwise would lead to interpretation and usage errors besides avoiding the automatic solution of the inverse problem. The paper focuses also on details such as embankment, crater, munitions, rocket propellant, building structure, and wall material that, at different levels, play a role in the assessment of detonation consequences. A discussion on debris formation, the available literature, and the evaluation of the impact probability of fragments on both fixed and moving targets closes the paper.     

海上气井环空带压油套管柱动态安全评价技术

为了有效预测海上气井环空带压油套管柱潜在失效风险及安全管理环空压力，提出1种基于井口压力、温度和液位多参数监测的海上气井环空带压油套管柱动态安全评价技术。首先，结合气井生产状态参数和完井信息，建立气井井筒压力分布计算方法；然后，根据力学知识分析气井环空带压油套管柱应力场特点，进而提出利用环空带压井油套管柱安全系数作为油套管柱失效评价依据；最终，开发海上气井环空带压安全监测系统并开展现场案例井分析。研究结果表明:监测系统能够准确获取环空带压状态参数，通过环空压力状态变化分析阐述“A”环空带压机理为泄漏点处油套管之间压力平衡的保持；结合实际井口环空压力监测数据，井筒安全系数能够实时表征油套管柱安全状态。     

An optimal level of dust explosion risk management: Framework and application

The current research provides guidance on the prevention and mitigation of dust explosion using a Quantitative Risk Management Framework (QRMF). Using concepts drawn from previous studies, the framework consists of three main steps: (i) a new combined safety management protocol, (ii) the use of DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) to assess explosion consequences and likelihood, respectively, and (iii) application of the hierarchy of controls (inherent, engineered and procedural safety). QRMF assessment of an industrial case study showed that the original process was at high risk. DESC simulations and Probit equations determined the destructive percentages. FTAs revealed high probabilities of explosion occurrence; in addition, detailed individual and societal risks calculations were made, before and after the framework was applied. Based on the hierarchy of controls technique, the framework showed significant risk reduction to the point where the residual risk was acceptable for the process.     

Fault propagation behavior study and root cause reasoning with dynamic Bayesian network based framework

The Bhopal disaster was a gas leak incident in India, considered the world's worst industrial disaster happened around process facilities. Nowadays the process facilities in petrochemical industries have becoming increasingly large and automatic. There are many risk factors with complex relationships among them. Unfortunately, some operators have poor access to abnormal situation management experience due to the lack of knowledge. However these interdependencies are seldom accounted for in current risk and safety analyses, which also belonged to the main factor causing Bhopal tragedy. Fault propagation behavior of process system is studied in this paper, and a dynamic Bayesian network based framework for root cause reasoning is proposed to deal with abnormal situation. It will help operators to fully understand the relationships among all the risk factors, identify the causes that lead to the abnormal situations, and consider all available safety measures to cope with the situation. Examples from a case study for process facilities are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. It also provides a method to help us do things better in the future and to make sure that another such terrible accident never happens again.     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

套管环空压力恢复与泄压预测模型研究

针对气井套管环空带压问题,通过研究气体在套管水泥环内的渗流规律,建立了气体渗流的连续性方程和运动方程,并求解出气体在水泥环中的渗流速率。通过分析井口泄压时针型阀处的气体流动状态,得出泄压时的气体泄放速率。以气体渗流速率和泄放速率为基础,结合井口的气体状态方程,分别建立了套管环空压力恢复与泄压预测模型。根据现场A气井实际数据进行实例计算,研究结果表明:所建模型计算的套管环空压力值与现场实测数据吻合,验证了模型的准确性。研究结果对套管环空带压的诊断评估和环空压力的控制具有重要意义。     

南海某深水高温高压气井SS-15型井口头系统薄弱点安全评价

为应对深水高温高压气井生产过程中井口系统复杂性、井口抬升等对整个井口系统完整性的破坏情况,研究环空压力、上顶力、温度、产量对井口头系统薄弱点的影响。基于数值模拟方法建立井口系统有限元力学模型,分析在不同环空压力与上顶力条件下,井口系统各部件的应力大小变化情况,为井口系统薄弱点位置的确定提供理论依据,进而提出深水高温高压井井口系统完整性的管控图版及方法。研究结果表明：环空密封本体与套管挂、锁环与限位槽的接触部位是薄弱点;同一环空压力下,上顶力越大,套管挂等效应力与锁环变形量越大;当上顶力超过700 t时,不论环空压力是否存在,均达到井口系统薄弱点屈服强度。因此,深水高温高压油气井应制定合理生产制度或管理措施,研究结果对保障井口系统完整性,降低深水高温高压井生产阶段风险具有一定参考意义。     

环空带压气井液位测试方法改进研究及应用

为了实时有效监测环空带压气井的液面位置,评价环空带压气井的风险,在传统回波定位技术基础上,提出了1种基于自相关分析的气井液位声波测试方法;建立了环空液位声波测试实验系统,开展了不同起爆压力下环空液位测试实验;对检测到声波信号进行平滑降噪和自相关分析,计算液面位置,并与真实液位进行对比分析;将该方法在现场含噪声的环空带压气井液位测试中进行了应用。结果表明:该方法能够对环空液位声波测试信号中的液面反射波进行有效提取;相比较现有在测试信号平滑降噪基础上提取的液面位置,降低了计算误差;同时,该方法能够在井下噪声环境中实现微弱液面反射声波的有效提取,其处理后的信号峰值指标更为突出,提高了测试系统对液位的识别能力,便于自动识别。     

Reliability assessment of ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulations

Ultra-deep oil and gas wells have become a new development trend in onshore oil and gas exploitation. However, Ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing is with high failure risk due to the harsh environment. It is essential to evaluate the reliability of wellbore casing. This paper assesses the operational reliability of wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulation. Firstly, the theoretical model for reliability analysis of wellbore casing is established, and the variables in the model are determined, including rock mechanics, cement ring, and casing string strength factors. Subsequently, considering the random distribution of model variables, many statistics and analyses are performed to determine the distribution parameters of the model variables. Eventually, Monte Carlo based numerical simulations are carried out to obtain the residual strength distribution and the reliability of wellbore casing. The production casing in the ultra-deep well with a depth of 6.5 km in China as an industrial case is used to illustrate the present study. It is observed that this study can be useful to guide a more accurate assessment of the reliability of ultra-deep wellbore casing.     

高压、超高压油气井装备抗内压强度设计计算分析*

为解决传统计算公式与方法已几乎无法满足目前对高压、超高压油气井装备强度设计的需求,利用理论分析方法,对不同抗内压强度计算公式进行详细分析,引入压力容器行业高压、超高压的计算公式与方法,并对某高温高压井抗内压强度进行分析,提出适用于超高压油气井的油套管抗内压强度计算公式。研究结果表明:不同抗内压强度公式的基本思想与设计准则不同,在使用时应注意限制条件,现有的抗内压强度计算公式不适用于高压、超高压油气井,材料性能不能充分利用且存在一定安全隐患;对超过100 MPa的油气井,可以采用弹塑性理念计算抗内压强度,对于油套管可以减小强度等级同时增加壁厚来满足抗内压强度要求。研究结果对高压、超高压油气井装备抗内压强度设计具有一定参考价值。