High-resolution modeling and evaluation of ozone air quality of Osaka using MM5-CMAQ system

High-resolution modeling approach is increasingly being considered as a necessary step for improving the monitoring and predictions of regional air quality. This is especially true for highly urbanized region with complex terrain and land-use. This study uses Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model coupled with MM5 mesoscale model for a comprehensive analysis to assess the suitability of such high-resolution modeling system in predicting ozone air quality in the complex terrains of Osaka, Japan. The 1-km and 3-km grid domains were nested inside a 9-km domain and the domain with 1-km grid covered the Osaka region. High-resolution Grid Point Value-Mesoscale Model (GPV-MSM) data were used after suitable validation. The simulated ozone concentrations were validated and evaluated using statistical metrics using performance criteria set for ozone. Daily maxima of ozone were found better simulated by the 1-km grid domain than the coarser 9-km and 3-km domains, with the maximum improvement in the mean absolute gross error about 3 ppbv. In addition, 1-km grid results fared better than other grids at most of the observation stations that showed noticeable di erences in gross error as well as correlation. These results amply justify the use of the integrated high-resolution MM5-CMAQ modeling system in the highly urbanized region, such as the Osaka region, which has complex terrain and land-use.     

长江三角洲地区对流层臭氧的数值模拟研究

将NCAR的中尺度天气预报模式MM5和作者开发的化学模式相耦合,建立了一个中尺度区域空气质量模式.利用该模式选取了2个典型个例研究了长江三角洲地区的区域臭氧化学问题.本研究的目的是利用模式再现并描述长江三角洲地区的大气物理化学过程,结合地面观测资料进一步定量分析控制该地区臭氧浓度的物理和化学因子.通过个例模拟和分析表明,模式基本反应了长江三角洲地区的大气物理化学过程,进一步的因子分析解释了模拟区域内1999 06 18(个例2)臭氧浓度普遍比1999 08 07(个例1)的臭氧浓度高的原因.模拟结果表明天气条件决定的大气动力过程对区域空气质量起着至关重要的作用,这也是个例2区域臭氧浓度普遍偏高的最主要因素之一.分析表明,物理因子(平流输送,垂直湍流输送)的作用和化学因子的作用同样重要.同时还做了模式参数的敏感性实验研究,并对中尺度云雨化学模拟及其对臭氧化学的影响做了初步研究.     

Fog simulation using a mesoscale model in and around the Yodo River Basin, Japan

In this study,fog simulations were conducted using the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) in and around the Yodo River Basin,Japan.The purpose is to investigate the MM5 performance of fog simulation for long-term periods.The simulations were performed for January,February,March,and July,2005 with a coarse 3-kin and a nested fine 1-km grid domains. Results of the simulations were compared with data from ten meteorological observatories,fog sampling site in Mt.Rokko,and visibility measu...     

Ozone sensitivity analysis with the MM5-CMAQ modeling system for Shanghai

Ozone has become one of the most important air pollution issues around the world. This article applied both O3/(NOy-NOx) and H2O2/HNO3 indicators to analyze the ozone sensitivity in urban and rural areas of Shanghai, with implementation of the MM5-CMAQ modeling system in July, 2007. The meteorological parameters were obtained by using the MM5 model. A regional emission inventory with spatial and temporal allocation based on the statistical data has been developed to provide input emission data to the MM5-CMAQ modeling system. Results showed that the ozone concentrations in Shanghai show clear regional differences. The ozone concentration in rural areas was much higher than that in the urban area. Two indicators showed that ozone was more sensitive to VOCs in urban areas, while it tended to be NOx sensitive in rural areas of Shanghai.     

Sensitivity analysis of surface ozone to emission controls in Beijing and its neighboring area during the 2008 Olympic Games

The regional air quality modeling system RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System)-CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system) is applied to analyze temporal and spatial variations in surface ozone concentration over Beijing and its surrounding region from July to October 2008. Comparison of simulated and observed meteorological elements and concentration of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ozone at one urban site and three rural sites during Olympic Games show that model can generally reproduce the main observed feature of wind, temperature and ozone, but NOx concentration is overestimated. Although ozone concentration decreased during Olympics, high ozone episodes occurred on 24 July and 24 August with concentration of 360 and 245 μg/m³ at Aoyuncun site, respectively. The analysis of sensitive test, with and without emission controls, shows that emission controls could reduce ozone concentration in the afternoon when ozone concentration was highest but increase it at night and in the morning. The evolution of the weather system during the ozone episodes (24 July and 24 August) indicates that hot and dry air and a stable weak pressure field intensified the production of ozone and allowed it to accumulate. Process analysis at the urban site and rural site shows that under favorable weather condition on 24 August, horizontal transport was the main contributor of the rural place and the pollution from the higher layer would be transported to the surface layer. On 24 July, as the wind velocity was smaller, the impact of transport on the rural place was not obvious.     

南京城市下垫面变化对夏季臭氧浓度的影响研究

利用南京基准地面气象站1951~2010年的气象数据分析南京气象要素的长期变化,利用2007年南京草场门大气污染物监测数据探讨O3同气象要素之间关系并分析气象要素改变对污染的可能影响,结合WRF-CALGRID模式基于2008年7月的情景模拟研究1990年代以后南京城市下垫面变化对气象要素变化的贡献,并分析其对O3浓度的影响.结果显示,南京气温呈现增长趋势,平均风速、大气湿度、日照时数呈现降低趋势.气温与O3浓度呈一定的正相关关系、较小的风速和相对湿度有利于O3的生成.城市下垫面的增加使得南京城区气温增高超过1℃、风速减小0.4m/s、湿度下降0.5g/kg、混合层高度增加100m.气象要素的改变使地面NOx浓度减小,最大减小量超过6×10-9.对O3浓度的影响有增有减,南京市北部、西部增加,增加量超过2×10-9,主要受温度增加、风速减小以及NO的垂直输送影响;主城区的南部、东部O3浓度减小,减少量1×10-9~3×10-9,主要受混合层高度增加的影响.     

京津冀地区严重光化学污染时段O3的时空分布特征

利用MCCM(多尺度气象空气质量模式)对京津冀地区2008年6月严重光化学污染时段的近地面φ(NO_x)和φ(O₃)进行了模拟;同时,为了检验MCCM系统模拟φ(O₃)时空分布的能力,将模拟的气象要素、φ(NO_x)和φ(O₃)与观测数据进行了比对,并利用验证后的模拟结果对该地区严重光化学污染时段O₃时空分布特征进行研究. 结果表明:①MCCM模式可较好地反映气象场和污染物浓度场的时空分布特征. 气温、露点温度和气压的观测值与模拟值的相关系数分别为0.85、0.77和0.95;模拟的化学物种浓度的时空分布与观测结果基本相符. ②城市中心地区φ(NO_x)较高,北京和天津城市地区的φ(NO_x)甚至超过了30×10-9;京津冀平原大部分地区午后14:00φ(O₃)的最大值超过了70×10-9;而太行山沿线φ(O₃)的最大值超过了80×10-9. 结合气象要素的分析表明,午后φ(O₃)在太行山沿线的高值与气压场和流场关系密切. ③利用判断O₃生成敏感性指标——H₂O₂/HNO₃(体积分数比)分析发现,φ(O₃)日最大值和φ(总氧化剂)(总氧化剂=NO₂₊O₃)平均值的高值区域与O₃生成受NO_x和VOCs协同控制的区域极为吻合. 因此,要达到降低区域的光化学污染,应以VOCs的消减为主,同时兼顾NO_x的消减.      

河谷型城市风场及污染物扩散的CFD数值仿真

为研究河谷型城市地形及其引起的风场和污染物扩散的复杂问题,利用CFD（计算流体力学）方法和复杂地形网格生成技术,建立河谷型城市风场及大气污染分布的数值仿真模型,实现CFD方法在复杂地形空气运动和污染物扩散方面的应用.分别使用LES（large eddy simulation）模型和mixture模型研究兰州市地面风场特征和污染物扩散形态,计算得到的污染物分布结果与实测结果分布一致.结果表明:复杂地形对空气运动的影响很大,如风速因山体屏障作用会呈现带状分布特征,山体后侧易出现弱风区域;同时,风场会密切影响污染物扩散,决定了污染物扩散形态,如幅散能够影响污染物扩散范围及污染水平.而给定西北风条件下,如地面以上10 m、风速为5 m/s、不受地形阻挡情况下,工业区污染物浓度被稀释10倍,约扩散2.2 km;山体阻挡会抑制污染物纵向扩散,表现在山体阻挡情况下污染物稀释100倍时的扩散长度约为相对平坦区域的1/3.此外,不同的入口风向会引起空气运动与山体相互作用发生变化,进而会使得地面风速、局部风场存在差异,造成污染物扩散及分布形态差异.研究显示,CFD方法可行,模型可靠,可以用来研究地形对风场和污染物扩散的影响.      

Impacts of pollution heterogeneity on population exposure in dense urban areas using ultra-fine resolution air quality data

Traditional air quality data have a spatial resolution of 1 km or above, making it challenging to resolve detailed air pollution exposure in complex urban areas. Combining urban morphology, dynamic traffic emission, regional and local meteorology, physicochemical transformations in air quality models using big data fusion technology, an ultra-fine resolution modeling system was developed to provide air quality data down to street level. Based on one-year ultra-fine resolution data, this study investigated the effects of pollution heterogeneity on the individual and population exposure to particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and ozone (O₃) in Hong Kong, one of the most densely populated and urbanized cities. Sharp fine-scale variabilities in air pollution were revealed within individual city blocks. Using traditional 1 km average to represent individual exposure resulted in a positively skewed deviation of up to 200% for high-end exposure individuals. Citizens were disproportionally affected by air pollution, with annual pollutant concentrations varied by factors of 2 to 5 among 452 District Council Constituency Areas (DCCAs) in Hong Kong, indicating great environmental inequities among the population. Unfavorable city planning resulted in a positive spatial coincidence between pollution and population, which increased public exposure to air pollutants by as large as 46% among districts in Hong Kong. Our results highlight the importance of ultra-fine pollutant data in quantifying the heterogeneity in pollution exposure in the dense urban area and the critical role of smart urban planning in reducing exposure inequities.     

Simulation of ozone intrusion caused by a tropopause fold and cut-off low

A tropopause fold and cut-off low developed over Europe at the end of April 1982 and enhanced the exchange of air between the stratosphere and troposphere. The episode has been simulated using the EURAD model which has been designed for long-range transport simulation for European conditions. Applying a linear relationship between potential vorticity and ozone, concentration fields of the tracer and their changes due to outflow of ozone-rich air from the stratosphere could be simulated. A considerable decrease of stratospheric ozone was also obtained. This indicates noticeable mixing of tropospheric air with reduced ozone content into the stratosphere during the episode. Strong downward fluxes more than an order of magnitude larger than normal when averaged over the model domain show up around levels close to the tropopause. Obviously, dynamical processes fovern teh ozone budget o the upper troposphere during the vigorous intrusion event. Drastic increases of ozone also occur in the lower troposphere but are probably underestimated since vertical mixing by clouds is not taken into account in the simulation experiments. It is intended to explore the interaction of ozone of stratospheric and tropospheric (anthropogenic) origin in further experiments.     

气候变化对长三角臭氧污染影响的数值模拟研究

目的研究气候变化对污染物浓度的影响,进而了解其对环境空气质量的影响。方法利用WRF-Chem模拟2014年1月、7月(代表现在)和2050年1月、7月(未来)长三角地区的气象要素和空气质量的数据,研究气候变化对该区域臭氧浓度的影响。结果在夏季,未来(2050年7月)与现在相比(2014年7月),整个长三角区域的臭氧浓度变化幅度较小,约为-0.09×10~(-9),且呈现出北部增加,南部减少的趋势,在长三角北部的陆地地区,臭氧浓度增加达到极大值(15.0×10~(-9))。在冬季,与2014年1月的数据比较,未来(2050年1月)整个长三角地区臭氧比现在降低约7.9%,其中在上海以东洋面上减少达到极值(-25.1%)。结论在夏季,导致长三角北部地区臭氧浓度升高的主要原因是太阳辐射量的增加、VOC和NOx浓度的升高、边界层高度的降低以及增强南风的输送有关。长三角南部地区臭氧浓度的减少,主要原因是其太阳辐射的减少以及风速的增加。在冬季,在南通、上海以东洋面上臭氧减少的幅度较大,这与温度的降低、辐射的减少以及NOx浓度的增加有关。长三角南部区域的臭氧浓度有所增加,这与该区域太阳辐射的增加以及区域范围内的输送有关。在制定臭氧控制策略时,应该考虑未来气候变化的影响。     

南京市秋季细颗粒物及臭氧生成敏感性初探

为考察江苏省南部地区重点排放源对南京市秋季细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))的贡献率及O_3生成敏感性,采用强力法针对特定排放源及污染物设置不同的排放情景,利用化学传输模拟系统Models-3/Community Multi-scale Air Quality(CMAQ)分析模拟区域内不同情景下地表PM_(2.5)及O_3浓度变化。2012年10月,电厂、钢铁和水泥的污染物排放对南京市PM_(2.5)浓度的平均贡献率分别为6.0%、25.5%和15.9%,对国控站点的贡献率分别为7.2%、17.7%和16.2%。钢铁对下风向区域的地表PM_(2.5)浓度的影响显著高于电厂及水泥部门的排放。从不同情境下模拟O_3地表浓度变化结果看出,南京市城区及下风向区域的O_3浓度随VOC排放削减降低,随NO_x排放削减升高,因而判定南京市秋季O_3生成属于VOC控制区。     

Estimation of vegetative mercury emissions in China

Vegetative mercury emissions were estimated within the framework of Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS3 V3.11). In this estimation, the 19 categories of U.S. Geological Survey landcover data were incorporated to generate the vegetation-specific mercury emissions in a 81-km Lambert Conformal model grid covering the total Chinese continent. The surface temperature and cloud-corrected solar radiation from a Mesoscale Meteorological model (MM5) were retrieved and used for calculating the diurnal variation...     

A numerical study of summer ozone concentration over the Kanto area of Japan using the MM5/CMAQ model

We assessed the ability of the MM5/CMAQ model to predict ozone (O3) air quality over the Kanto area and to investigate the factors that a ect simulation of O3. We find that the coupled MM5/CMAQ model is a useful tool for the analysis of urban environmental problems. The simulation results were compared with observational data and were found to accurately replicate most of the important observed characteristics. The initial and boundary conditions were found to have a significant e ect on simulated O3 concentrations. The results show that on hot and dry days with high O3 concentration, the CMAQ model provides a poor simulation of O3 maxima when using initial and boundary conditions derived from the CMAQ default data. The simulation of peak O3 concentrations is improved with the JCAP initial and boundary conditions. On mild days, the default CMAQ initial and boundary conditions provide a more realistic simulation. Meteorological conditions also have a strong impact on the simulated distribution and accumulation of O3 concentrations in this area. Low O3 concentrations are simulated during mild weather conditions, and high concentrations are predicted during hot and dry weather. By investigating the e ects of di erent meteorological conditions on each model process, we find that advection and di usion di er the most between the two meteorological regimes. Thus, di erences in the winds that govern the transport of O3 and its precursors are likely the most important meteorological drivers of ozone concentration over the central Kanto area.     

Sensitivity of future ozone concentrations in the northeast USA to regional climate change

An air quality modeling system was used to simulate the effects on ozone concentration in the northeast USA from climate changes projected through the end of the twenty-first century by the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR’s) parallel climate model, a fully coupled general circulation model, under a higher and a lower scenario of future global changes in concentrations of radiatively active constituents. The air quality calculations were done with both a global chemistry-transport model and a regional air quality model focused on the northeast USA. The air quality simulations assumed no changes in regional anthropogenic emissions of the chemical species primarily involved in the chemical reactions of ozone creation and destruction, but only accounted for changes in the climate. Together, these idealized global and regional model simulations provide insights into the contribution of possible future climate changes on ozone. Over the coming century, summer climate is projected to be warmer and less cloudy for the northeast USA. These changes are considerably larger under the higher scenario as compared with the lower. Higher temperatures also increase biogenic emissions. Both mean daily and 8-h maximum ozone increase from the combination of three factors that tend to favor higher concentrations: (1) higher temperatures change the rates of reactions and photolysis rates important to the ozone chemistry; (2) lower cloudiness (higher solar radiation) increases the photolysis reaction rates; and (3) higher biogenic emissions increase the concentration of reactive species. Regional model simulations with two cumulus parameterizations produce ozone concentration changes that differ by approximately 10%, indicating that there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of changes due to uncertainties in how physical processes should be parameterized in the models. However, the overall effect of the climate changes simulated by these models – in the absence of reductions in regional anthropogenic emissions – would be to increase ozone concentrations.     

珠江三角洲一次典型复合型污染过程的模拟研究

利用空气质量模式系统(MM5-CAMQ-SMOKE),模拟珠江三角洲一次典型的复合型污染过程,研究O3、NOx及能见度等的时空变化,分析各种气溶胶的质量比例以及对消光的贡献.从模拟结果来看,模式系统能很好的模拟此次过程中光化学烟雾标识物的时空分布,以及灰霾的发生、减弱再到进一步加剧的过程.PM2.5占PM10的质量浓度份额平均为79.8%.爱根核和积聚核的数浓度比巨核数浓度平均高3~4个数量级.在气溶胶质量权重中,硫酸盐所占的比重最高,占PM2.5权重达到31%,元素碳为21%,有机碳为14%,铵盐为7.2%,硝酸盐为2%.在平均相对湿度下,二次气溶胶对消光的贡献超过50%,而在高相对湿度的情况下,二次气溶胶对消光的贡献超过70%.可见此次珠江三角洲地区能见度恶化主要是由各种化学过程生成的细粒子引起.     

被动采样监测珠江三角洲NOx、SO2和O3的空间分布特征

为获得珠江三角洲区域污染特征,采用被动扩散采样技术,在珠江三角洲200 km×200 km网格区域内测量11月两周暴露的NO2、SO2和O3浓度水平,采用克里格空间插值法(Kriging)获取NOx、SO2和O3的空间分布特征,并与源清单和已有模型结果比对.采用反向轨迹方法模拟了O3的输送途径.结果表明,采样期间珠江三...     

中国硫沉降数值模拟

采用致酸污染物长距离传输模型ATMOS,对我国2002年排放的SO₂所产生的S沉降分布进行了数值模拟研究.分别将模式输出的ρ(SO₂),SO₄2-湿沉降量与实际监测地面层的ρ(SO₂),降水中SO₄2-湿沉降量进行相关性分析;对我国总S沉降、地面层ρ(SO₂)分布,以及S干、湿沉降分布特点等模拟结果进行详细分析.在此基础上,得到模拟各网格的总S沉降数值,将其与相应的S沉降临界负荷值进行比较,获得95%保证率(RAINS-Asia)下我国1°×1°S沉降超临界负荷分布图.为控制我国的S沉降,对各省SO₂减排的形势进行分析,并提出具体要求.      

基于前体物多情景排放的兰州市2030年夏季臭氧预测

近年来,兰州市夏季臭氧污染问题日渐凸显,已成为影响当地环境空气质量达标的首要污染因子和制约环境空气质量持续改善的突出短板.解决臭氧污染问题需结合城市经济发展的实际情况定量评估前体物减排量并提出切实可行的减排对策,为环境管理的中长期规划提供科学依据.在2015年本地排放清单的基础上,通过情景分析法预测了兰州市2030年3种梯度城市发展与污染控制情景下臭氧的两类主要前体物氮氧化物（NO_x）和挥发性有机物（VOCs）的排放量,利用WRF-Chem模型对不同情景下的2030年夏季臭氧污染程度进行了数值模拟,分析了臭氧浓度与生成敏感性的时空变化情况,并提出了兰州市臭氧前体物的总量控制参考和针对不同行政区的减排对策建议.结果表明,3种不同的城市发展与污染控制情景下兰州市2030年NO_x排放量为4.57×10⁴～12.14×10⁴ t, VOCs排放量为5.30×10⁴～7.69×10⁴ t, NO_x排放可通过调整能源结构,加强末端治理和限制机动车...     

基于气流轨迹聚类的大气污染输送影响

基于中尺度气象预报模式(MM5)、混合单粒子拉格朗日积分(HYSPLIT)轨迹模式模拟和K均值聚类算法,利用气流轨迹聚类判断不同尺度大气输送型对城市空气的质量影响. 采用MM5模式对2006年珠江三角洲地区四季代表月(1,4,7,10月)的气象场进行了模拟,将模拟结果输入到HYSPLIT模式中,以计算广州市上空气团每日逐时的12 h后向轨迹;利用K均值聚类算法按轨迹移动方向和速度将各月气流轨迹线聚为有代表性的5类,计算各类输送型出现时段广州市ρ(PM₁₀₎和ρ(SO₂)的平均值. 结果表明,珠江三角洲地区低层大气输送季节性变化明显,按输送特征及其对城市污染物浓度的影响差异,可将输送型分为局地输送、城市间输送和远距离输送3类. 结合污染源排放清单得出的污染源空间分布,分析结果表明,广州市大气污染较重时段主要受特殊气象条件和珠江三角洲地区周边城市排放源的影响,本地源排放与周边城市污染物输送的叠加使大气污染加重.