人为源和生物源排放对臭氧的贡献 ——以春夏季东亚地区为例

利用因子分离法区分NOx与人为、生物源VOCs(AVOCs、BVOCs)分别对东亚地区近地面O3浓度的纯贡献与协同贡献,基于区域空气质量模式(RAQM)讨论了2000年春、夏季排放源的总贡献以及协同贡献的空间分布.结果表明,光化学反应在日最大O3浓度的形成中占很大比例,我国北方大部分地区源的贡献夏季最大,南方受东亚季风影响,夏季最小.AVOCs与NOx、BVOCs与NOx的协同效应加强了光化学反应中O3的形成.AVOCs与NOx的协同贡献季节性变化特征显著,我国南方大部分地区夏季最小.BVOCs与NOx的协同贡献在我国南北方差异很大,春季高值区主要分布在南方大部分地区,北方峰值出现在夏季.说明臭氧调控对策的制定除源排放大小外还须考虑地域差异和季节变化.     

Ozone risk for crops and pastures in present and future climates

Ozone is the most important regional-scale air pollutant causing risks for vegetation and human health in many parts of the world. Ozone impacts on yield and quality of crops and pastures depend on precursor emissions, atmospheric transport and leaf uptake and on the plant’s biochemical defence capacity, all of which are influenced by changing climatic conditions, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and altered emission patterns. In this article, recent findings about ozone effects under current conditions and trends in regional ozone levels and in climatic factors affecting the plant’s sensitivity to ozone are reviewed in order to assess implications of these developments for future regional ozone risks. Based on pessimistic IPCC emission scenarios for many cropland regions elevated mean ozone levels in surface air are projected for 2050 and beyond as a result of both increasing emissions and positive effects of climate change on ozone formation and higher cumulative ozone exposure during an extended growing season resulting from increasing length and frequency of ozone episodes. At the same time, crop sensitivity may decline in areas where warming is accompanied by drying, such as southern and central Europe, in contrast to areas at higher latitudes where rapid warming is projected to occur in the absence of declining air and soil moisture. In regions with rapid industrialisation and population growth and with little regulatory action, ozone risks are projected to increase most dramatically, thus causing negative impacts major staple crops such as rice and wheat and, consequently, on food security. Crop improvement may be a way to increase crop cross-tolerance to co-occurring stresses from heat, drought and ozone. However, the review reveals that besides uncertainties in climate projections, parameters in models for ozone risk assessment are also uncertain and model improvements are necessary to better define specific targets for crop improvements, to identify regions most at risk from ozone in a future climate and to set robust effect-based ozone standards.     

Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe

Air quality and related health effects are not only affected by policies directly addressed at air pollution but also by other environmental strategies such as climate mitigation. This study addresses how different climate policy pathways indirectly bear upon air pollution in terms of improved human health in Europe. To this end, we put in perspective mitigation costs and monetised health benefits of reducing PM_2.5 (particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter) and ozone concentrations.Air quality in Europe and related health impacts were assessed using a comprehensive modelling chain, based on global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models together with a health impact assessment tool. This allows capturing both the impact of climate policy on emissions of air pollutants and the geophysical impact of climate change on air quality.Results are presented for projections at the 2050 horizon, for a set of consistent air pollution and climate policy scenarios, combined with population data from the UN's World Population Prospects, and are expressed in terms of morbidity and mortality impacts of PM_2.5 and ozone pollution and their monetised damage equivalent.The analysis shows that enforcement of current European air quality policies would effectively reduce health impacts from PM_2.5 in Europe even in the absence of climate policies (life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 decrease by 78% between 2005 and 2050 in the reference scenario), while impacts for ozone depend on the ambition level of international climate policies. A move towards stringent climate policies on a global scale, in addition to limiting global warming, creates co-benefits in terms of reduced health impacts (68% decrease in life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 and 85% decrease in premature deaths from ozone in 2050 in the mitigation scenario relative to the reference scenario) and air pollution cost savings (77%) in Europe. These co-benefits are found to offset at least 85% of the additional cost of climate policy in this region.     

臭氧层损耗影响低层大气质量的新认识

近年来有关平流层臭氧损耗影响低层大气质量的研究表明 ,在污染相对轻的地方 ,可以观测到加强的光化学反应过程 ;在污染地区 ,最终的影响与大气中存在的痕量物质间的相互作用有很大关系 ,这些通常会被人为排放带来的影响所掩盖 ;越来越多的证据表明 ,臭氧层损耗与气候变化之间的相互作用是至关重要的涉及全球变化的问题 ,是今后活跃的科学研究领域。     

夏季长三角地区臭氧非线性响应曲面模型的建立及应用

2013年8月上旬,长三角地区发生了一次大范围高浓度臭氧污染事件.本研究基于WRF-CMAQ空气质量模型系统,结合长三角地区大气污染物排放清单,构建了臭氧与其前体物之间的非线性响应曲面模型(Response surface modeling,RSM).基于RSM探讨了长三角地区O_3化学的敏感性特征,分析了上海市O_3的来源并预测不同情景下O_3的变化,提出O_3污染的最优控制方案.研究结果表明,长三角地区夏季O3主控因素区域差别较大,上海环科院、杭州卧龙桥、南京玄武湖等城区点位属于VOC控制型;徐州铜山、合肥肥西、丽水青田等郊区属于NOx控制型.O_3的敏感性特征在不同浓度水平下也呈现较大差异,随着O_3浓度水平的升高,各地区NOx敏感性均有所增加.从区域来源来看,远距离传输对平日上海O_3贡献较大,占50%以上;而在O_3污染日,本地及区域贡献为72.1%,而远距离传输贡献下降至27.9%.快速预测了110组减排情景,表明在本地及区域前体物均减排70%的情况下,2013年8月上海O_3浓度能完全达标.     

Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO₂, NO_x, CH₄, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH₄. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO₂, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO_x and SO₂ should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.     

Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies

This paper provides an analysis of co-benefits for traditional air pollutants made possible through global climate policies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The impact analysis is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: the European Union (EU), China, India and the United States. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion € when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 occur in China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion (Euros) € is estimated for the EU if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. Health impacts of air pollution are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of fine particles, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of particulate matter are responsible for about 40 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the climate strategies reduce this indicator by 50 %. Decrease of ozone concentrations estimated for the climate scenario might save nearly 20,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication.     

天然源排放碳氢化合物对广州地区光化学污染的影响

运用二维网格模式模拟天然源排放碳氢化合物对广州地区光化学污染的影响．结果表明,天然源排放碳氢化合物的减少直接引起臭氧浓度的减少．当天然源碳氢化合物排放量为零,臭氧平均浓度将减少51.0％;当人为源碳氢化合物排放量为零,臭氧平均浓度将减少34.4％．尽管模拟区内天然源碳氢化合物所占比例（45.7％）比人为源所占比例（54.3％）略小,但天然源碳氢化合物对臭氧浓度的影响却比人为源大．在广州地区东北部,天然源碳氢化合物对臭氧浓度起主要作用;在广州地区南部,人为源碳氢化合物对臭氧浓度起主要作用     

Strong ozone production at a rural site in theNorth China Plain: Mixed effects of urban plumesand biogenic emissions

Regional ozone (O₃) pollution has drawn increasing attention in China over the recent decade, but the contributions from urban pollution and biogenic emissions have not been clearly elucidated. To better understand the formation of the regional O₃ problem in the North China Plain (NCP), intensive field measurements of O₃ and related parameters were conducted at a rural site downwind of Ji'nan, the capital city of Shandong province, in the summer of 2013. Markedly severe O₃ pollution was recorded, with the O₃ mixing ratios exceeding the Chinese national ambient air quality standard on 28?days (a frequency of 78%) and with a maximum hourly value of 198 ppbv. Extensive regional transport of well-processed urban plumes to the site was identified. An observation-constrained chemical box model was deployed to evaluate in situ photochemical O₃ production on two episodes. The results show that the in situ formation accounted for approximately 46% of the observed O₃ accumulation, while the remainder (~ 54%) was contributed by regional transport of the O₃-laden urban plumes. The in situ ozone production was in a mixed controlled regime that reducing either NOx or VOCs would lead to a reduction of ozone formation. Biogenic VOCs played an important role in the local ozone formation. This study demonstrates the significant mixed effects of both anthropogenic pollution from urban zones and biogenic emission in rural areas on the regional O₃ pollution in the NCP region, and may have general applicability in facilitating the understanding of the formation of secondary pollution over China.     

The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions/reductions in waste sector in Vietnam

The global waste sector produces, on average, 2–5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The amount of GHG emissions has grown steadily and is predicted to increase considerable in the forthcoming decades because of the increases in population and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the GHG mitigation opportunities for the sector are still fully not exploited, in particularly in developing countries. A series of initiatives were highly successful and showed that large reductions in emissions are possible. This study aims to propose a holistic quantification model, which can be used for estimation of waste generation and evaluation of the potential reduction of GHG emissions in waste sector for developing countries with a particular application to Vietnam. The two scenarios set for the study were business as usual (BaU) which waste management is assumed to follow past and current trends and CounterMeasure (CM) which alternative waste treatment and management are assessed. Total emissions in the BaU scenario are projected to increase from 29.47 MtCO₂eq in 2010 to 85.60 MtCO₂eq by 2030 and 176.32 MtCO₂eq by 2050. The highest emissions are due to methane (CH₄) released by disposal sites, accounting for about 60 % of the GHG emissions from waste in Vietnam in 2030. This emission is projected to increase significantly (67 % in 2050), unless more of the methane is captured and used for energy generation. The CM scenario gives emission reductions from 25.7 % (2020), 40.5 % (2030) to 56.6 % (2050) compared to the BaU scenario. The highest GHG reduction is achieved through recycling, followed by methane recovery to optimize the co-benefit for climate change mitigation.     

重点产业源增长对北部湾地区气态污染物模拟的影响

根据污染源普查资料制作北部湾地区2007年人为排放源清单,以及中期/远期参比情景(REF15/REF20)和远期调控情景(SCEi20)下的排放源清单.采用WRF-Chem模拟北部湾地区空气质量现状及未来变化.2007年SO2和NO2月平均质量浓度模拟值与监测值比较吻合.广东、广西(海南)地区污染物质量浓度较高(低)....     

挥发性有机物(VOCs)的不同化学去除途径:城市与区域站点的对比

VOCs在大气中主要是与OH自由基、NO₃自由基和O₃等反应氧化去除,部分OVOCs的自身光解也是重要的化学去除途径.本研究基于2018年和2019年秋季在珠三角地区的城市和区域站点的外场观测实验,使用VOCs、常规痕量气体及气象参数的观测数据,对烷烃、烯烃、芳香烃和OVOCs等VOCs组分不同化学去除途径的去除速率进行分析.结果表明,烷烃和芳香烃主要通过与OH自由基反应去除,最高占比超过99%.与NO₃自由基和O₃的反应可贡献烯烃去除速率的80%以上,特别是一些天然源的烯烃（如单萜烯）与NO₃自由基的氧化去除是贡献最大的氧化途径.光解是甲醛最重要的去除途径,在两个站点均达到了50%以上,酮类的光解贡献会高于其他OVOCs类物质.OH自由基的氧化去除途径在城市和区域站点的人为源及天然源VOCs去除中占主导地位.区域站点,烯烃尤其是天然源的烯烃物种,与NO₃自由基和O₃反应的贡献要高于城市站点.本研究对促进不同VOCs物种在大气中的去除途径以及其空间差异的认识有重要意义.     

HONO来源及其对空气质量影响研究进展

综述了HONO来源(源排放、均相反应和非均相反应生成)、HONO模拟研究以及HONO来源对空气质量的影响.指出均相反应中激发态NO2与水汽作用形成HONO的机制在高NOx排放地区具有重要作用,但反应速率需进一步证实.非均相反应中水解反应可能是HONO最主要来源,空气质量模式模拟结果也支持该观点;soot表面的光照催化反应在soot高排放地区对HONO贡献较大,但仍需大量外场实验证实;土壤排放机理的外场实验研究极少,亟待加强.     

Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century,with special reference to Portugal

Climate change alone may deeply impact air quality levels in the atmosphere because the changes in the meteorological conditions will induce changes on the transport, dispersion and transformation of air pollutants. The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the air quality over Europe and Portugal, using a reference year (year 1990) and a IPCC SRES A2 year (year 2100). The Hadley Centre global atmospheric circulation model (HadAM3P) was used to provide results for these two climatic scenarios, which were then used as synoptic forcing for the MM5-CHIMERE air quality modelling system. In order to assess the contribution of future climate change on O₃ and PM concentrations, no changes in regional emissions were assumed and only climate change forcing was considered. The modelling results suggest that the O₃ monthly mean levels in the atmosphere may increase almost 50 μg m^?3 across Europe in July under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. In Portugal, this increase may reach 20 μg m^?3. The changes of PM10 monthly average values over Europe will depend on the region. The increase in PM10 concentrations during specific months could be explained by the average reduction of the boundary layer height and wind speed.     

IPCC第一工作组评估报告分析及建议

2021年8月6日,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组第六次评估报告(AR6)发布,针对气候系统变化科学领域最新研究进展和成果进行了全面、系统的评估. AR6以更强有力的证据进一步确定了近百年全球气候变暖的客观事实,人类活动对气候变暖影响的信号更为清晰. 本文总结了历次IPCC评估报告,并从气候现状、未来可能的气候状态、风险评估和区域适应气候变化信息以及减缓未来气候变化4个方面对AR6进行系统梳理. 结果表明:人类活动产生的温室气体对大气、海洋、冰冻圈和生物圈的影响前所未有,引发了全球许多地区的极端天气和气候极端事件. 未来若温室气体排放没有显著减少,到2100年全球地表温度将至少升高2.1 ℃;如若人类影响得到有效改善,在最低排放情景(SSP1-1.9)中,2055年将变为负碳,到21世纪末气温开始再次下降. 减少CH₄等其他污染物可以为全球气候治理争取时间,并改善空气质量. 建议中国应对气候变化应加强基础科学研究,聚焦模式开发和应用及与各工作组之间的衔接,加快短寿命气候强迫(SLCFs)与温室气体协同控制研究,强化应对气候变化政策措施的科技支撑等.      

2013年夏季典型光化学污染过程中长三角典型城市O3来源识别

城市化、工业化、机动化的高速推进以及大气活性物质的大量排放,使得长江三角洲地区在夏秋季节面临严峻的以高浓度O3为典型特征的光化学污染问题.然而,O3与其前体物之间的高度非线性反应过程使得其来源识别变得十分复杂,因此针对高浓度O3的控制途径仍不清楚.本文以2013年7月长三角地区发生的一次持续时间长、波及范围广、强度高的高浓度O3污染过程为研究案例,基于CAMx空气质量数值模型中耦合的臭氧来源追踪方法(OSAT),采用物种示踪的方法对长三角3个代表性城市上海、苏州、杭州近地面O3的污染来源开展了模拟研究,探讨了4个源区(上海、浙北、苏南和长距离输送)、7类排放源(工业锅炉和窑炉、生产工艺过程、电厂、生活源、流动源、挥发源和天然源)对上海、苏州和杭州城区地面O3的浓度贡献.研究结果表明:长距离输送以及区域背景产生的O3约在20×10-9~40×10-9(体积分数)之间;加上上海及苏南、浙北地区排放的前体物在长三角城区地区二次生成O3,可使O3上升至40×10-9~100×10-9(体积分数)乃至更高.模拟时段内日间8 h O3浓度的地区贡献分析结果显示,长距离传输对于上海、苏州、杭州的浓度贡献分别为42.79%±10.17%、48.57%±9.97%和60.13%±7.11%;上海城区O3来源中,上海本地污染贡献平均为28.94%±8.49%,浙北地区贡献约19.83%±10.55%;苏州城区O3来源中,苏南地区贡献约26.41%±6.80%;杭州城区O3来源中,浙北地区贡献约29.56%±8.33%.从各受点日最大O3小时浓度贡献来看,长距离传输贡献比例显著下降(35.35%~58.04%),而本地污染贡献上升.区域各类污染源贡献分析结果表明,长三角地区对O3污染贡献最为突出的几类污染源分别是工业锅炉和窑炉(浓度贡献约18.4%~21.11%)、生产工艺过程(19.85%~28.46%)、流动源(21.30%~23.51%)、天然源(13.01%~17.07%)和电厂排放(7.08%~9.75%).研究结果表明,工业燃烧排放、生产工艺过程中产生的VOC排放以及流动源大气污染物排放,是造成长三角区域夏季高浓度O3的主要人为源.     

不同人为源排放对珠江三角洲地区O3生成贡献的数值模拟

利用改进的二维欧拉空气质量模式对珠江三角洲地区不同类型人为源排放对该区域臭氧生成的贡献进行了模拟研究.结果表明,珠江三角洲区域臭氧生成受VOCs排放控制,流动源排放VOC最多,对臭氧生成的贡献也最大,分别占臭氧最大小时浓度和平均小时浓度的44%和67%;其次是溶剂和油漆挥发的贡献.点源和面源排放VOC较少,但排放NOx量大,二者对臭氧生成影响是负的.控制所有类型人为源排放,珠江三角洲区域臭氧日均浓度和最大浓度将分别减少78%和90%.模拟结果还显示,受气象场和光化学反应共同影响,珠江三角洲南部区域是臭氧浓度高值区.     

UK air quality in 2050—synergies with climate change policies

Estimates are made of air quality in the UK around the time of 2050 on the assumption that significant changes are made to energy and transport technologies to move towards the goal of a 60% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 on a 1990 base. London is used as an example to assess possible future concentrations of particulate matter and oxides of nitrogen. Emission reductions and their effects on ozone concentrations in the southern UK are also discussed. The paper concludes that significant synergies and co-benefits are possible through a concerted consideration of air quality and climate change policies.     

区域气象条件和减排对空气质量改善的贡献评估

区域气象条件和减排与空气质量的变化关系密切.区域污染天气的发生不只受人为排放的影响,其与气象条件也密切有关.我国地处全球的主要季风气候区,大气环流具有明显的季风气候变化特征,区域气象条件受年际气候变化影响显著.研究通过分析不同气候条件下京津冀地区、成渝地区、长三角和珠三角城市群2001~2018年主要气象要素及其污染天气的变化趋势,利用KNN大数据挖掘算法量化分析区域气象条件和减排对大气污染的贡献率.结果表明,2001~2018年间全球气候变化异常频繁,厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜非正常气候占比近一半.减排与气候变化均对空气质量的改善起促进作用.在非正常气候条件下,气象对空气质量改善的贡献更为明显.例如,非正常气候时京津冀地区气象条件对空气质量改善的贡献约为51%,而正常气候时约为30%.对于长三角和珠三角城市群,其气象条件在非正常气候时的贡献达到了50%左右,几乎与减排贡献相当.此外,各区域2015~2018年的减排贡献均高于2001~2012年的平均水平,表明随着我国实施大气污染物排放控制措施力度的增大,减排对空气质量改善的贡献显著.但气象条件对空气质量改善的贡献仍不容忽视,区域减排控制仍然任重而道远.     

长江三角洲地区对流层臭氧的数值模拟研究

将NCAR的中尺度天气预报模式MM5和作者开发的化学模式相耦合,建立了一个中尺度区域空气质量模式.利用该模式选取了2个典型个例研究了长江三角洲地区的区域臭氧化学问题.本研究的目的是利用模式再现并描述长江三角洲地区的大气物理化学过程,结合地面观测资料进一步定量分析控制该地区臭氧浓度的物理和化学因子.通过个例模拟和分析表明,模式基本反应了长江三角洲地区的大气物理化学过程,进一步的因子分析解释了模拟区域内1999 06 18(个例2)臭氧浓度普遍比1999 08 07(个例1)的臭氧浓度高的原因.模拟结果表明天气条件决定的大气动力过程对区域空气质量起着至关重要的作用,这也是个例2区域臭氧浓度普遍偏高的最主要因素之一.分析表明,物理因子(平流输送,垂直湍流输送)的作用和化学因子的作用同样重要.同时还做了模式参数的敏感性实验研究,并对中尺度云雨化学模拟及其对臭氧化学的影响做了初步研究.