浙江省环境污染与经济发展关系的实证研究

本文在环境库兹涅茨曲线假设基础上,采用1991—2014年浙江省环境和经济数据,运用回归模型对其环境污染与经济发展的关系进行实证检验。结果表明:浙江工业废水、工业废气、工业SO2排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量均符合EKC假设,其中工业SO2和工业废水人均排放量与人均GDP呈倒U形关系,拐点分别出现在2005年与2010年;工业废气排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量尚处于倒U形左侧上升阶段,其中工业固体废弃物人均产生量已接近拐点。而生活污水排放量与EKC假设并不相符,人均生活污水排放量与人均GDP呈单调递增的线形关系。对EKC驱动因子的分析表明,加强政府环境治理,以不断完善的环境法规推动产业结构升级调整,以持续的技术进步与创新促进关键行业节能减排,有利于克服规模效应,推动浙江环境污染与经济发展的关系早日实现解耦。     

我国长江流域中三角区域大气污染物排放特征研究

中三角区域已经是我国第四个国家级城市群,也将成为我国经济增长的"第四极"。在经济发展的同时,更需要以节能减排、资源环境等为重点,以实现经济建设与生态文明"双可持续"的协同发展。本文以二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘为主要大气污染物,对我国中三角区域大气污染物排放进行了详细的分析,并与京津冀、长三角、珠三角、"三区十群"等进行了多方位比较。结果表明,2013年中三角区域二氧化硫排放量为151.7万t,其中工业二氧化硫排放量为140.1万t;氮氧化物排放量为147.2万t,其中工业氮氧化物排放量为93.6万t;烟(粉)尘排放量为81.8万t,其中工业烟(粉)尘排放量为71.4万t。中三角区域二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘排放量均位于"四极"的第三。中三角区域二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘单位GDP排放强度分别为25.03t/亿元、24.29 t/亿元、13.50 t/亿元,分别位于"四极"的第一、第二、第二。同时,本文还从经济发展模式、产业结构调整、煤炭消费方式等方面对我国中三角等经济"四极"提出了相关建议。     

Non-ferrous metals and economic growth: The future demand for lead

As national economies grow, requirements for physical resources increase. This paper attempts to forecast future world demand for lead, by deriving a relationship between the amount consumed per capita and the level of economic development, and then using this to generate world demand figures based on some predictions of future economic growth. Although the rate of increase in demand for lead may decline as high levels of GDP are reached, it is nevertheless predicted that world annual demand could continue rising exponentially over the next 50 or 60 years, in the absence of constraints due to lack of physical resources or very high differential prices. This is essentially because large areas of the world will still be increasing their GDP per capita over the range where the rate of increase in demand for lead is increasing steeply.     

上海文化产业及贸易发展影响因素的灰色关联度分析

在经济全球化浪潮的推动下，文化影响力日益加大，文化产业成为各国竞相争抢的战略高地。文化贸易作为一种新的贸易形态实现了迅猛增长，而国与国竞争的焦点在于主要节点城市实力的较量。采用灰色关联方法，从经济发展、产业规模、市场需求和科研创新四个方面选取14个指标，对上海文化产业及贸易发展的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明，城乡居民家庭人均可支配收入等因素对上海文化产业发展有着重要的关联影响，而人均生产总值和互联网用户普及率等因素对上海文化贸易有着重要的影响，但科技成果与文化产业及贸易的关联度均较小，尤其是外贸依存度的关联影响不显著。     

Resident Motivations and Willingness-to-Pay for Urban Biodiversity Conservation in Guangzhou (China)

The monetary assessment of biodiversity measures the welfare damages brought by biodiversity losses and the cost-benefit analysis of conservation projects in a socio-economic context. The contingent valuation method could include motivational factors to strengthen economic analysis of nature conservation. This study analyzed Guangzhou residents’ motivations and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for an urban biodiversity conservation program in the National Baiyun Mountain Scenic Area (BMSA). The peri-urban natural site, offering refuge to some endemic species, is under increasing development pressures for recreational and residential use. A questionnaire survey was conducted in the Guangzhou metropolitan area during June to October 2007. We interviewed face-to-face 720 stratified sampled households to probe residents’ attitudes towards the city’s environmental issues, motivations for urban nature conservation, and WTP for biodiversity conservation. Principal component analysis identified five motivational factors, including environmental benefit, ecological diversity, nature-culture interaction, landscape-recreation function, and intergenerational sustainability, which illustrated the general economic values of urban nature. Logistic regression was applied to predict the probability of people being willing to pay for the urban biodiversity conservation in BMSA. The significant predictors of WTP included household income and the factor nature-culture interaction. The median WTP estimated RMB149/household (about US$19.5/household) per year and an aggregate of RMB291 million (approximately US$19.5/household) per year and an aggregate of RMB291 million (approximately US38.2 million) annually to support the urban conservation project. Including public motivations into contingent valuation presents a promising approach to conduct cost-benefit analysis of public projects in China.     

城市发展与水环境污染的研究

本文研究了城市发展与水环境污染的关系。运用灰色关联分析表明,对水污染排放的影响程度大小依次为:人口密度(γ1=0.4456)工业发展(γ3=0.3498)环保投入(γ2=0.2656)。通过弹性系数预测法分析了上海废水排放与人均GDP的发展趋势。     

烟台市水环境污染与经济发展的关系研究

对烟台市2001~2017年水环境质量与经济发展的系列数据进行收集、整理及分析后,建立以环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)及其相关理论为基础的烟台市人均GDP与烟台市水环境污染指标的计量模型。对结果进行分析后发现:烟台市工业污水排放量对数值与人均GDP对数值间关系呈倒“N”形曲线,烟台市城乡居民生活污水排放量与人均GDP间关系大致呈倒“U”形曲线。烟台市的水环境问题在一段时间内有所缓解,但随着经济发展有出现新问题的可能,为了持续对污水排放进行防治,烟台市应继续采取因地制宜的水环境保护措施。     

重庆市环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与分析

随着经济持续发展,西部地区环境与经济矛盾日益突出,为研究西部地区经济与环境关系,本文以重庆市为例,选取1990年~2011年共22年的经济指标(人均GDP)与污染物(废水、工业废气、工业固体废弃物等)排放量为环境指标,建立经济与环境指标的协同演化模型,绘制环境库兹涅茨曲线并对重庆市经济与环境协同发展关系进行研究;结果表明:重庆市人均GDP与工业废水排放量之间呈现明显EKC关系,其转折点为2005年,即人均GDP为10982元;重庆市人均GDP与工业SO2排放量及与工业烟尘排放量和工业固体废物排放的良性关系出现和将要出现在2010年和2015年;重庆市人均GDP与总体的工业"三废"排放量之间呈现出明显的倒"U"EKC关系,2006年以后,随着人均GDP的增加,工业"三废"排放量不断减少,2011年时,工业"三废"排放量趋于平缓。由此也说明,重庆市工业"三废"排放量有明显好转的趋势。     

基于EKC的全面小康中国与发达国家环境质量比较

以2020年全面建成小康社会目标为依据,比较了我国2020年与主要发达国家同等经济水平阶段在能源消耗、大气环境、水环境等方面的差距。研究发现:主要发达国家环境质量拐点出现在20世纪70年代末到80年代初,人均GDP在1.4万~1.5万美元左右。人均GDP在1.1万~1.2万美元阶段时,我国大气污染物排放强度低于发达国家,但大气环境质量差于发达国家;主要水污染排放量高于主要发达国家,但水环境质量基本可达到发达国家同期水平。建议要正确认识环境与经济之间的EKC曲线关系,制定具有中国特色的环境问题解决路线图,提出具有阶段性、差异化、适度超前的环境质量目标。     

我国经济发展的生态效率及其改进策略

本文考察了我国历年生态效率状况，应用两种预测方法探讨了至2020年我国经济发展的生态效率预期目标，并从宏观角度提出了系统性的改进策略。研究表明，1997～2005年，我国水资源生产率、工业用水资源生产率、能源生产率、COD排放生产率、SO2排放生产率的年平均增长率分别为8．77％、7．19％、2．56％、11．94％、7．35％。根据“十一五”规划，至2010年，我国拟采用的水资源生产率倍数、工业用水资源生产率倍数、能源生产率倍数、COD排放生产率倍数、SO2排放生产率倍数分别为1．924、2．081、1．223、2．570、1．969，与根据我国历年变化趋势所预测的相应值基本持平，有的甚至还相对低一些；按“十一五”规划期生态效率增长趋势所推测的2020年上述值分别为3．006、4．247、1．912、6．540、5．009，根据我国历年变化趋势所预测的相应值分别为5．37、4．01、1．66、9．54、4．13。我国生态效率改进的基本策略是：技术进步、结构调整、制度创新和强化管理等。     

The Effects of Urbanization on Net Primary Productivity in Southeastern China

Net primary productivity (NPP) is one of the major ecosystem products on which human societies rely heavily. However, rapid urban sprawl and its associated dense population and economic conditions have generated great pressure on natural resources, food security, and environments. It is valuable to understand how urban expansion and associated demographic and economic conditions affect ecosystem functions. This research conducted a case study in Southeastern China to examine the impacts of urban expansion and demographic and economic conditions on NPP. The data sources used in research include human settlement developed through a combination of MODIS, DMSP-OLS and Landsat ETM+ images, the annual NPP from MODIS, and the population and gross domestic product (GDP) from the 2000 census data. Multiple regression analysis and nonlinear regression analysis were used to examine the relationships of NPP with settlement, population and GDP. This research indicates that settlement, population and GDP have strongly negative correlation with NPP in Southeastern China, but the outcomes were nonlinear when population or GDP reached certain thresholds.     

水质基准与标准对我国环保产业的拉动分析

水质基准与标准是国家环境保护工作的根本,是进行环境管理的重要技术依据。随着我国水环境形势的变化和管理目标的改变,为准确、客观地反映我国当前的地表水环境状况,强化水污染防治,有效引导水环境质量改善的方向,提高水环境管理的效率,要求基于水质基准研究开展《地表水环境质量标准》的修订工作,以满足新的管理需求。预测表明,"十三五"期间我国环保投资将达到约6.8万亿,为达到修订《标准》后的目标,我国水污染防治至少需投资2.04万亿。另外,修订《标准》,将带动工业和城镇水污染防治投资超过一万亿元,能够加快环保产业的技术成果转化与应用推广。水质基准与标准对环保产业创新和社会经济发展具有积极促进作用,将在我国水环境质量改善和科技进步促进方面产生重大而深远的影响。     

昆明市特征污染物增长的环境库兹涅茨特征研究

本文通过对昆明市主城区2002~2007年人均GDP与城市污染物增长数据进行分析并拟合,计算表明:昆明市主城区工业废水排放倒"U"型曲线的转折点位于人均GDP 24785.72元处,对应的工业废水峰值,约1426.77万吨。SO2排放倒"U"型曲线转折点位于24005元处,而对应的SO2排放峰值,约29417.6吨。说明昆明市工业废水及SO2污染已经越过EKC的理论计算转折点,将来一段时间昆明市污染物排放总量将会继续减缓。     

Using nighttime light data to estimate water evaporation inside buildings in China's urban areas

Urbanization has a great impact on urban evapotranspiration. Water evaporation inside buildings is an important part of urban water vapor resources and a crucial core of urban hydrological processes. The systematic studies on building water evaporation (BWE) are mostly the method of experimental monitoring. This study proposed a new method to simulate and estimate water evaporation flux inside buildings in urban areas. Based on the nighttime light data and urban per capita gross domestic product (GDP), a new modeling system was built to simulate the total BWE. Building area was calculated using the nighttime light data. And the BWE coefficient D_f was estimated according to the important indicator of economic development per capita GDP value. Then the water evaporation inside urban buildings and the spatial distribution of water evaporation inside buildings in typical cities could be obtained. The results showed that the total amount of water evaporation inside buildings in China's urban areas was 24.5 billion m³. Among the 31 provincial capitals in China, Shanghai had the largest BWE of 1.08 billion m³. The minimum water evaporation of buildings in Lhasa was 20.0 million m³. Studies of BWE can assess urban water budgets, support on-demand allocation of water resources, and provide a fundamental understanding of the relationship between water resources and energy heat island effects in urban areas.     

年度城市环境事件评选:方法、评析及启示

政府和民众对于城市环境事件的关注越来越高,树立典型是激励良性发展的有效手段。为了提高年度城市环境事件评选的科学性和合理性,本文提出定量和定性相结合的评选方法,包含事件收集、事件筛选、事件评定三个阶段。在此基础上,对2016年度中国城市环境保护十大事件进行了评选,无锡、贵溪、三亚、珠海的案例分别代表了水、土、气、生4个专项领域环境治理和保护的先进典型;杭州、深圳、三沙的案例分别体现了以大型赛事活动为契机开展城市综合环境整治的先进经验,以及市场化的治理手段和生态技术对于城市综合治理的重要性;上海(崇明)、重庆、鄂尔多斯(库布齐地区)代表了因地制宜的区域生态文明发展模式。通过案例分析,得出如下启示:提升环境治理成效应该兼顾责任制、市场化、民主化的管理模式创新和各种技术创新;生态环境要素应该被视为城市发展的新兴增长点;城市环境保护行为具有发展和再分配双重属性,环保行为的发展属性仍有待于继续普及,而先行城市应该借鉴典型经验,积极探索通过环境保护实现经济发展的新模式。     

Economic assessment of the health effects related to particulate matter pollution in 111 Chinese cities by using economic burden of disease analysis

With China's rapid economic development, environmental problems have become more and more serious. Particulate air pollution is terrible in cities with large and dense population. It may lead to adverse health effects and economic costs. In this study, we calculated the health effects of pollution caused by particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10mum (PM(10)) in 111 Chinese cities in 2004 according to statistical data and epidemiological exposure-response functions. Using economic burden of disease analysis, an economic assessment of these health risks was also presented. In contrast to many previous studies that have examined individual cities, this study covered most large and medium-sized cities in China, which accounted for more than 70% gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2004. The total economic cost caused by PM(10) pollution was estimated as approximately US$ 29,178.7 million. Mega cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin contribute relatively more to the total costs. The results will help policy makers in formulating more effective countermeasures and increasing public awareness to enhance environmental protection.     

Eco-efficiency in contaminated land management in Finland – Barriers and development needs

In Finland the number of potentially contaminated sites totals ca. 20?000. The annual costs of remediation are 60–70 million euros. Excavation combined with disposal or off-site treatment is the most common soil remediation method. To define which factors make contaminated land management (CLM) eco-efficient and to study whether eco-efficiency has been considered in CLM decisions we carried out a literature survey, two stakeholder seminars, thematic interviews and a questionnaire study on economic instruments. Generally speaking, eco-efficiency means gaining environmental benefits with fewer resources. To assess its realization in CLM, it is necessary to have a more specific definition. In our study, we arrived at a list of several qualifications for eco-efficiency. It was also shown that eco-efficiency has hardly been a real issue in the selection of remediation techniques or generally, in the decision-making concerning contaminated sites. The existing policy instruments seem to be insufficient to promote eco-efficiency in CLM. Several concrete barriers to eco-efficiency also came up, urgency and lack of money being the most important. The scarcity of the use of in situ remediation methods and the difficulties involved in recycling slightly contaminated or treated soil were considered to be major problems. Insufficient site studies, inadequate or unsuitable methods for risk assessment and cost evaluation, and deficient and mistimed risk communication can also hinder the realization of eco-efficiency. Hence, there is a need to promote the use of more eco-efficient remediation techniques and to develop CLM policy instruments, guidelines, and participatory processes and methods to assess the eco-efficiency of CLM options.     

Urban Environmental Management in Shanghai: Achievements, Problems, and Prospects

This article critically reviews the evolution of urban environmental management in Shanghai since 1978. Established in a transitional postsocialist economy and shaped by a spectacular urban redevelopment process, the current environmental management framework of Shanghai has succeeded in mitigating major industrial pollution and improving urban amenities with unprecedented pace and magnitude. However, it generally failed to take social equity and environmental justice issues into consideration. Based on Haughton’s models of sustainable urban development, this article proposes four priorities and five principles within the framework of a fair shares cities model for the future environmental management of Shanghai and briefly discusses their policy implications and implementation issues. The authors argue that Haughton’s approach is relevant to Shanghai’s case because the essence of his argument—the multidimensional equity principles—is the core of the concept of sustainable development.     

论经济增长与环境保护的共生

中国经济的快速发展应该建立在环境保护前提之下,在发展中实现经济增长与环境保护共生。这需要从四个方面着手:把绿色GDP作为衡量经济发展的指标;发展低碳经济,实现经济发展与生态文明建设的双赢;加快产业升级,实现经济增长方式的转变;发展循环经济,构建环境友好型社会。