西方环境风险感知:研究进路、细分论域与学术反思

工业化与城市化背景下带来的严重环境问题和潜在环境风险已成为当代社会的日常景象,这要求人们更加理性地面对环境风险。但由于公众环境风险感知的差异,高环境风险感知引发的环境抗争、政策失败等过度风险反应现象已经屡见不鲜。因此,整体性地描绘环境风险感知的研究全貌具有重要的意义和价值。它既是实现有效环境风险治理的迫切需要,也是社会治理领域重要的现实课题。本文以西方环境风险感知经典研究的介绍为引,详述了环境风险感知研究变迁的历史后发现:西方环境风险感知研究体现了跨学科的特性,其对这一概念的认知和界定方式,呈现出从心理难题、文化结果到抗争过程的视角变迁。进一步分析发现:(1)受专业背景的干预,不同学科研究者对环境风险感知概念的认知呈现出"宽泛"与"严格"的明显分异;(2)环境风险感知的影响因素研究业已成为环境风险感知研究领域的核心议题。且产生出具有继起关系的三种解释:即"环境风险维度""个体特征维度""社会文化维度";(3)已有环境风险感知研究的理论取向遵循着从"技术决定"向"社会建构"转变以及从"事物逻辑"向"社群逻辑"更替两条演变主线。其研究在以下三个方面需要反思:多学科的研究进路和概念认知缺乏有效的对话与融合;多维度的结构性影响因素尚未形成整体性分析机制;理论取向的演变未曾实现研究的融合。文章最后展示了环境风险感知研究之于转型中国社会的意义。并且提出了社会治理和环境风险管理两个深具潜力的拓展方向。     

风险感知视角下后疫情时期中国公民生态环境行为影响机制

新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的暴发给人们带来了巨大的风险,同时引起人类生态伦理方面的思考。那么后疫情时期人们是否会因自己所经历和感知到的疫情风险而对现有人与自然关系等生态伦理问题进行深刻反思,并进一步提升生态环境行为规范践行程度呢?为回应这一问题,该研究从新冠疫情风险感知概念出发,通过质性研究的方法剖析疫情风险感知的内涵和结构,结合社会认知理论,以"风险感知-反思-责任-行为"为逻辑框架,探究在生态伦理反思与生态环境责任感的顺序中介效应下,疫情风险感知对中国公民生态环境行为规范践行影响的内部机制。通过对823份有效数据进行分析表明:(1)中国公民对于此次新冠肺炎疫情风险的感知主要包含本质感知、工作/学习感知、生活质量感知、社交质量感知、生理健康感知、消极情绪感知和政府控制感知等7个维度。(2)通过编制量表与实证分析,发现人们的疫情风险感知程度越高,后疫情时期越能够促进生态环境行为的产生。(3)从生态伦理反思和生态环境责任感视角探讨疫情风险感知对公民生态环境行为的影响,并验证了生态伦理反思与生态环境责任感在疫情风险感知与公民生态环境行为之间发挥顺序中介作用。基于研究结论认为,应从"人与自然共同体"视角出发,构建公民生态环境责任感提升导向的"政府-组织-公民"递进式生态文明教育体系,以生态伦理为价值导向,有效促进生态知行合一,提升公民的生态环境行为。     

基于演化认知的乡村性研究

基于对乡村历史进程的演化认知,对乡村性概念及学术研究现状进行了分析,并尝试梳理出乡村形成、演变的驱动因素及阶段性的特征。从已有的文献研究看,传统乡村社会得以延续和稳定的根本原因主要在于:基于自然支持的经济活动、基于传统文化支撑的社会结构以及基于对大自然敬畏的人与自然共存的生态环境。正是由于这些因素的共同作用,产生了大家可以回溯性认同的"乡村性",并铸就了乡村在许多人心目中作为"驻留地""来源地"和"生活地"的特性。人类进入现代社会以后,现代性因素对乡村社会产生了剧烈的影响,改变了乡村原有的缓慢演化过程,形成了完全不同于原貌的"乡村",比如城镇或者被遗弃的村落。为此,对传统乡村社会结构的稳定性、经济活动的平稳性、自然环境的可持续性以及"资本""技术""规模""效率"和"他治"等要素进行了不同侧面的分析,认为:乡村未来的发展既离不开其应有的乡村性,同时也会继续受到现代性因素的影响,并形成不同于传统乡村演化模式的新的发展路径。从已有的发展历史看,人类已经历了生存、生产与生活相结合以及生产与生活相分离的三个阶段,未来乡村可能在前三个阶段的基础上,演化到第四个阶段:以生活为主导的栖居阶段。这一阶段将成为人类生活终极向往地,其具有以下特点:宜居的、人与自然和谐的、乡村性中能够融入现代性里符合人性需求的元素。有鉴于此,认为要实现乡村的可持续发展,既要注重改变物质落后的局面,更要恢复乡村得以长期延续的乡村性。     

社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识,有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素,不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节,还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法,比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明,公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度,信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播,其中宜春公众的信任度较高;公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱,尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小;公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关,主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响,即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异,风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

基于价值共创的垃圾处理服务变革和社会营销策略

垃圾分类处理是城市可持续发展的必然要求。目前,我国多个城市都对垃圾处理服务变革方式进行了探索,并陆续开展了城市垃圾分类试点工作,但成效甚微。本研究在价值共创理念的基础上,探讨民众在垃圾处理服务变革中的感知价值类型,并分析价值感知的前因和结果变量在其中的作用,即观察价值影响因素、民众感知价值和其支持行为之间的关系。通过深度访谈和问卷调查法,本项研究发现,民众的感知价值包含功能价值、社交价值、利他价值三个类型,感知价值能有效增强民众对垃圾分类政策的支持行为。政府与市民的双向沟通、服务变革的实施环境氛围、民众对服务变革的公平感知及其变革意识,可以提升民众的感知价值。最后,研究提出了推进垃圾处理服务变革的社会营销策略,建议政府明确各方定位,并进一步完善垃圾分类制度方案,实现精细化城市管理,着力提升垃圾分类服务变革的功能价值、社交价值和利他价值,调动民众积极参与,同时重视民众公平感知,维护价值共创。     

重大水利工程项目社会风险的牛鞭效应

重大水利工程在有效利用自然资源的同时,也将带来巨大的社会风险,且这种风险在传递过程中不断被放大扭曲,具有明显的牛鞭效应。本文在构建重大水利工程项目社会风险链模型基础上,具体分析了牛鞭效应的产生原因,并定量刻画了社会风险牛鞭效应的削弱机制。研究表明,水利工程项目信息尤其是隐性信息在施工方和当地民众之间传递的不及时或不准确,将导致社会风险被大幅放大,并形成牛鞭效应。牛鞭效应的具体大小主要取决于两方面,一方面是水利工程项目直接影响的利益受损当地民众比例,另一方面是社会风险传染率与退出率的比值。针对前者,除了设计良好的补偿机制来弥补具体的、可衡量的利益损失外,还须通过建立失地农民的社保体系来维护如地缘业缘消失带来的无形损失;针对后者,可以在政府各部门、施工方和民众之间建立良好的信息共享系统,把单向沟通改变为多向沟通,把治理模式从"政府治理"改变为"政府—民众共治",从而促进社会的和谐发展。     

社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识，有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素，不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节，还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法，比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明，公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度，信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播，其中宜春公众的信任度较高；公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱，尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小；公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关，主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响，即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异，风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

城市自然景区游客环境责任行为影响因素研究

城市自然景区是城市中不可多得的旅游资源和游憩空间,游客旅游行为对城市自然景区的游憩冲击一直是城市旅游管理亟待解决的棘手问题,研究游客的环境责任行为是控制游憩负面冲击,增强城市自然景区可持续发展能力的有效途径。本研究在国内外文献综述和实践观察基础上,将游客社会责任意识引入游客环境冲击感知和环境责任行为的关系研究中,建立了包含生态环境冲击感知、不友善行为感知、游客冲突感知和设施管理冲击感知四个游憩冲击感知变量,自我约束行为和保护促进行为两个环境责任行为变量的"游憩冲击感知—社会责任意识—环境责任行为"理论模型,应用问卷调查和结构方程模型,以长沙岳麓山国家5A级景区为案例,对城市自然景区游客环境责任行为的影响因素及其相互关系展开定量实证研究。研究发现:(1)游客游憩冲击感知对环境责任行为的直接影响作用较小,生态环境冲击感知对环境保护促进行为具有显著正向影响;(2)游客社会责任意识对环境自我约束行为具有显著正向影响,其在游客环境冲击感知、设施管理冲击感知、游客冲突感知与环境责任行为的影响关系中起中介作用;(3)游客冲击感知对社会责任意识的影响主要表现为游客生态环境冲击感知和设施管理冲击感知对游客社会责任意识具有显著的正向影响,而游客冲突感知对游客社会责任意识具有显著的负向影响。根据研究结论,文章最后指出城市自然景区游客环境责任行为若干管理启示。     

气候移民的概念与类型探析

气候变化问题、气候变化及其不利影响所导致的现实或潜在的大量气候移民已成为21世纪人类社会面临的严峻挑战,是现阶段人类社会普遍关注的核心问题之一。通过对社会发展进程中各种主客观因素叠加作用导致的渐变缓发性气候风险、极端突变灾害性气候风险等诸种气候变化现象所导致的气候移民问题的剖析,结合已有的研究文献对历史、现实条件下气候变化导致的气候移民产生的机理与逻辑展开分析,以把握其演变发展趋势。从而对气候移民进行概念上的辨析、梳理和界定,以揭示气候移民的实体内涵、本质特点与根本属性;并依据移民的迁移意愿、迁移时限长短、迁移的空间区域和距离远近、导致气候移民的不同致因对其进行类型上的划分与归类,以期加深我们对气候移民问题的深入理解与认知,更好把握气候移民问题产生的本质与演变发展规律。从而为有效破解各种气候变化现象导致的气候移民难题,化解气候移民面临的各种社会风险,促进社会的良性运行与协调发展做出初步探索。     

认知资源对公众城市气象灾害防御支付意愿的影响研究——基于南京市暴雨灾害防御的实证

城市气象灾害防御措施的改进是防灾减灾的有效手段,但如何在辨识公众支付意愿的基础上,构建多方成本分担的灾害防御制度是解决问题的关键。从成本分担的视角出发,以南京暴雨灾害防御为例,分析公众对增强型城市气象灾害防御的支付意愿及认知资源在其中的重要作用。通过构建由Probit模型和有序Probit模型组成的递归混合模型,探讨认知资源和经济资源在公众支付决策中的重要性。研究表明:认知资源的作用十分明显,且随着公众对暴雨灾害风险感知、防御措施了解程度、防御制度认可程度的提高,公众支付意愿越强。而暴雨灾害风险感知又受到灾害趋势认知和经历的共同影响,这两个变量分别影响风险感知的广度和深度,但受教育程度对风险感知深度的影响并不显著。核心建议是从满足公众对城市暴雨灾害风险、防御措施、灾害趋势等知识的需求,政府应该加强暴雨灾害科普宣传的主动性、提升主管和协同部门的公信力;规范科普知识内容、拓宽科普渠道。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.