Geostatistical Analysis of data on AIR Temperature and Plant Phenology From Baden-Württemberg (GERMANY) as a Basis for Regional Scaled Models of Climate Change

The rise of the air temperature is assured to be part of the global climatic change, but there is still a lack of knowledge about its effects at a regional scale. The article tackles the correlation of air temperature with the phenology of selected plants by the example of Baden-Württemberg to provide a spatial valid data base for regional climate change models. To this end, the data on air temperature and plant phenology, gathered from measurement sites without congruent coverage, were correlated after performing geostatistical analysis and estimation. In addition, geostatistics are used to analyze and cartographically depict the spatial structure of the phenology of plants in spring and in summer. The statistical analysis reveals a significant relationship between the rising air temperature and the earlier beginning of phenological phases like blooming or fruit maturation: From 1991 to 1999 spring time, as indicated by plant phenology, has begun up to 15 days earlier than from 1961 to 1990. As shown by geostatistics, this holds true for the whole territory of Baden-Württemberg. The effects of the rise of air temperature should be investigated not only by monitoring biological individuals, as for example plants, but on an ecosystem level as well. In Germany, the environmental monitoring should be supplemented by the study of the effects of the climatic change in ecosystems. Because air temperature and humidity have a great influence on the temporal and spatial distribution of pathogen carriers (vectors) and pathogens, mapping of the environmental determinants of vector and pathogen distribution in space and time should be performed in order to identify hot spots for risk assessment and further detailed epidemiological studies.     

Linked Hydrologic and Climate Variations in British Columbia and Yukon

Climatic and hydrologic variations between the decades 1976–1985 and 1986–1995 are examined at 34 climate stations and 275 hydrology stations. The variations in climate are distributedacross a broad spatial area. Temperatures were generally warmerin the most recent decade, with many stations showing significantincreases during the spring and fall. No significant decreases intemperature were found. Significant increases in temperature weremore frequent in the south than in the northern portions of theregion. Significant changes in precipitation were also more prevalent in the south. In coastal areas, there were significantdecreases in precipitation during the dry season, and significantincreases during the wet season. In the BC interior, significantprecipitation decreases occurred during the fall, with significant increases during the winter and spring. In the norththere were few changes in precipitation. The hydrologic responsesto these variations in climate follow six distinctive patterns.The spatial distribution of these patterns suggests that indifferent ecozones, small variations in climate, particularlytemperature, elicit different hydrologic responses.     

European Farmland Bird Distribution Explained by Remotely Sensed Phenological Indices

Birds are important components of biodiversity conservation since they are capable of indicating changes in the general status of wildlife and of the countryside. The Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme (PECBM) has been launched by the BirdLife Partnership in Europe, where the European Bird Census Council has been collecting data from 20 independent breeding bird survey programs across Europe over the last 25 years. These data show dramatic declines in European farmland birds. We suggest that seasonal characteristics of vegetation cover derived from high temporal resolution remote sensing images could facilitate the monitoring the suitability of farmland bird habitats, and that these indicators may be a better choice for monitoring than climate data. We used redundancy analysis to link the PECBM data of the estimated number of farmland birds in Europe to a set of phenological and climatic indicators and to the biogeographic regions of Europe. Variance partitioning was used to account for the variation explained by the phenological and climate variables and by the area of the environmental strata individually, to define the pure effect of the variables, and to extract the total explained variance. The analysis revealed high statistical significance (p < 0.001) of the correlations between species and environment. Phenological indices explained 38% of the variance in community composition of the 23 farmland bird species, whereas climate explained 30% of the variance. After partitioning the other variables as covariables, the pure effect of phenology, climate, and environmental strata were 16%, 8%, and 16%, respectively. Based on the probability results, we suggest that phenological indicators derived from remote sensing may supply better indicators for continental scale biodiversity studies than climate only. In addition, these indicators are cost and time effective, are on continuous scale, and are readily repeatable on a large spatial coverage while supplying standardized results.     

Use of Water Clarity to Monitor the Effects of Climate Change and other Stressors on Oligotrophic Lakes

We present evidence from studies oflakes in Killarney Park, Ontario, Canada that waterclarity is a key variable for monitoring theeffects of climate change, high UV exposure andacidification. In small oligotrophic lakes, thesestressors affect water clarity primarily byaltering the concentration of DOC in lake water. Clear lakes (<2 mg L^-1 DOC) proved to be highlysensitive indicators of stressors, exhibiting largethermal and optical responses to small changes inDOC. Extremely clear (<0.5 mg L^-1 DOC) acidic lakesshowed the effects of climate change and solarbleaching in recent decades. These lakes becamemuch clearer even though they were slowlyrecovering from acidification.     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity in the Arctic

The Canadian Arctic is characterized by a high variation in landform types and there are complex interactions between land, water and the atmosphere which dramatically affect the distribution of biota. Biodiversity depends upon the intensity, predictability and scale of these interactions. Observations, as well as predictions of large-scale climate models which include ocean circulation, reveal an anomalous cooling of northeastern Canada in recent decades, in contrast to the overall significant increase in average annual temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Predictions from models are necessary to forecast the change in the treeline in the 21st century which may lead to a major loss of tundra. The rate of change in vegetation in response to climate change is poorly understood. The treeline in central Canada, for example, is showing infilling with trees, and in some locations, northerly movement of the boundary. The presence of sea ice in Hudson Bay and other coastal areas is a major factor affecting interactions between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Loss of ice and therefore hunting of seals by polar bears will reduce bear and arctic fox populations within the region. In turn, this is likely to have significant effects on their herbivorous prey populations and forage plants. Further, the undersurface of sea ice is a major site for the growth of algae and marine invertebrates which in turn act as food for the marine food web. A rise in sea-level may flood coastal saltmarsh communities leading to changes in plant assemblages and a decline in foraging by geese and other consumers. The anomalous cooling in the eastern Arctic, primarily in late winter and early spring, has interrupted northern migration of breeding populations of geese and ducks and led to increased damage to vegetation in southern arctic saltmarshes as a result of foraging. It is likely that there has been a significant loss of invertebrates in those areas where the vegetation has been destroyed. Warming will have major effects on permafrost distribution and on ground-ice resulting in a major destabilization of slopes and slumping of soil, and disruption of tundra plant communities. Disruption of peat and moss surfaces lead to loss of insulation, an increase in active-layer depth and changes in drainage and plant assemblages. Increases of UV-B radiation will strongly affect vulnerable populations of both plants and animals. The indigenous peoples will face major changes in life style, edibility of food and health standards, if there is a significant warming trend. The great need is for information which is sensitive to the changes and will assist in developing an understanding of the complex interactions of the arctic biota, human populations and the physical environment.     

Climate and Freshwater Resources in Northern Mexico: Sonora, a Case Study

An analysis of current trends in water availability in the Mexican border state of Sonora is presented to illustrate what may be faced under climate change conditions. Precipitation, streamflow and even dam levels data are examined to estimate what changes have been experienced in recent decades. There are indications that the more frequent occurrence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have resulted in more winter precipitation and consequently in a slight increase in water availability in northwestern Mexico. However, water demands grow much faster than such trends in water availability, mainly due to a rapid increase in population in urban areas and in socio-economic activities such as those related to agriculture, industry and power generation. Some strategies to adapt or mitigate climate change conditions are proposed.     

A national framework for monitoring and reporting on environmental sustainability in Canada

In 1991, a collaborative project to revise the terrestrial component of a national ecological framework was undertaken with a wide range of stakeholders. This spatial framework consists of multiple, nested levels of ecological generalization with linkages to existing federal and provincial scientific databases. The broadest level of generalization is the ecozone. Macroclimate, major vegetation types and subcontinental scale physiographic formations constitute the definitive components of these major ecosystems. Ecozones are subdivided into approximately 200 ecoregions which are based on properties like regional physiography, surficial geology, climate, vegetation, soil, water and fauna. The ecozone and ecoregion levels of the framework have been depicted on a national map coverage at 1:7 500 000 scale. Ecoregions have been subdivided into ecodistricts based primarily on landform, parent material, topography, soils, waterbodies and vegetation at a scale (1:2 000 000) useful for environmental resource management, monitoring and modelling activities. Nested within the ecodistricts are the polygons that make up the Soil Landscapes of Canada series of 1:1 000 000 scale soil maps. The framework is supported by an ARC-INFO GIS at Agriculture Canada. The data model allows linkage to associated databases on climate, land use and socio-economic attributes.     

Heavy metal pollution in water and sediments in the Kabini River, Karnataka, India

Critical to habitat management is the understanding of not only the location of animal food resources, but also the timing of their availability. Grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) diets, for example, shift seasonally as different vegetation species enter key phenological phases. In this paper, we describe the use of a network of seven ground-based digital camera systems to monitor understorey and overstorey vegetation within species-specific regions of interest. Established across an elevation gradient in western Alberta, Canada, the cameras collected true-colour (RGB) images daily from 13 April 2009 to 27 October 2009. Fourth-order polynomials were fit to an RGB-derived index, which was then compared to field-based observations of phenological phases. Using linear regression to statistically relate the camera and field data, results indicated that 61% (r (2)?= 0.61, df = 1, F?= 14.3, p?= 0.0043) of the variance observed in the field phenological phase data is captured by the cameras for the start of the growing season and 72% (r (2)?= 0.72, df = 1, F?= 23.09, p?= 0.0009) of the variance in length of growing season. Based on the linear regression models, the mean absolute differences in residuals between predicted and observed start of growing season and length of growing season were 4 and 6?days, respectively. This work extends upon previous research by demonstrating that specific understorey and overstorey species can be targeted for phenological monitoring in a forested environment, using readily available digital camera technology and RGB-based vegetation indices.     

Singular Spectrum Analytic (SSA) Decomposition and Reconstruction of Flowering: Signatures of Climatic Impacts

An empirical approach for the decomposition and reconstruction of long-term flowering records of eight eucalypt species is presented. Results from singular spectrum analysis (SSA) allow for characterisation of the dynamic and complex flowering patterns in response to temperature and rainfall throughout the year. SSA identified trend, annual, biennial and other sub-components of flowering. The ability to discriminate flowering and climate relationships is demonstrated based on SSA (cross-)correlation analysis. SSA also identified the cyclical influence of temperature and rainfall on peak flowering. For each species, there is, on average, 6 months of the annual cycle when temperature positively influences flowering and 6 months when the influence of temperature is negative. For all species, rainfall exerts a negative influence when temperature is positive. Investigation of short-term and long-term lags of climate on flowering provided best-case climatic scenarios for each species’ flowering; e.g. more intense peak flowering is likely in Eucalyptus leucoxylon when cool, wet conditions coincide with peak flowering and is further enhanced if the preceding autumn and winter were warm and dry, and the previous spring and summer cool and wet. Three clear species groupings, according to similar SSA (cross-)correlation signatures, were identified: (1) E. leucoxylon and E. tricarpa; (2) E. camaldulensis, E. melliodora and E. polyanthemos and (3) E. goniocalyx, E. microcarpa and E. macrorhyncha. Lastly, change point years for flowering based on SSA sub-components in four of the species seem to align with years of major shift in global ENSO signal (1951/1957/1958) as indicated by the extended multivariate ENSO index.     

The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests

If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.     

Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland

Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg(2+)-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements.     

Inter-annual and spatial variability in hillslope runoff and mercury flux during spring snowmelt

Spring snowmelt is an important period of mercury (Hg) export from watersheds. Limited research has investigated the potential effects of climate variability on hydrologic and Hg fluxes during spring snowmelt. The purpose of this research was to assess the potential impacts of inter-annual climate variability on Hg mobility in forested uplands, as well as spatial variability in hillslope hydrology and Hg fluxes. We compared hydrological flows, Hg and solute mobility from three adjacent hillslopes in the S7 watershed of the Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota during two very different spring snowmelt periods: one following a winter (2009-2010) with severely diminished snow accumulation (snow water equivalent (SWE) = 48 mm) with an early melt, and a second (2010-2011) with significantly greater winter snow accumulation (SWE = 98 mm) with average to late melt timing. Observed inter-annual differences in total Hg (THg) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yields were predominantly flow-driven, as the proportion by which solute yields increased was the same as the increase in runoff. Accounting for inter-annual differences in flow, there was no significant difference in THg and DOC export between the two snowmelt periods. The spring 2010 snowmelt highlighted the important contribution of melting soil frost in the timing of a considerable portion of THg exported from the hillslope, accounting for nearly 30% of the THg mobilized. Differences in slope morphology and soil depths to the confining till layer were important in controlling the large observed spatial variability in hydrological flowpaths, transmissivity feedback responses, and Hg flux trends across the adjacent hillslopes.     

Reproductive strategies and seasonal changes in the somatic indices of seven small-bodied fishes in Atlantic Canada in relation to study design for environmental effects monitoring

Small-bodied fishes are more commonly being used in environmental effects monitoring (EEM) studies. There is a lack of understanding of the biological characteristics of many small-bodied species, which hinders study designs for monitoring studies. For example, 72 % of fish population surveys in Canada’s EEM program for pulp and paper mills that used small-bodied fishes were conducted outside of the reproductive period of the species. This resulted in an inadequate assessment of the EEM program’s primary effect endpoint (reproduction) for these studies. The present study examined seasonal changes in liver size, gonad size, and condition in seven freshwater and estuarine small-bodied fishes in Atlantic Canada. These data were used to examine differences in reproductive strategies and patterns of energy storage among species. Female gonadal recrudescence in all seven species began primarily in the 2-month period in the spring before spawning. Male gonadal development was concurrent with females in five species; however, gonadal recrudescence began in the fall in male three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). The spawning period for each species was estimated from the decline in relative ovary size after its seasonal maximum value in spring. The duration of the spawning period reflected the reproductive strategy (single vs multiple spawning) of the species. Optimal sampling periods to assess reproductive impacts in each species were determined based on seasonal changes in ovary size and were identified to be during the prespawning period when gonads are developing and variability in relative gonad size is at a minimum.     

Commercial bumblebee hives to assess an anthropogenic environment for pollinator support: a case study in the region of Ghent (Belgium)

Anthropogenic changes of the environment influence the distribution and abundance of pollinators such as bumblebees and have been proposed as one of the main causes in their worldwide decline. In order to evaluate the impact of expanding anthropogenic landscapes on supporting pollinator potential, reliable tools are needed. Bombus terrestris is one of the most abundant bumblebee species in Europe, and these bumblebees are known as generalist pollinators of not only wild flowers in nature but also of crops in agriculture. For more than two decades, these bumblebees have been commercially mass reared for biological pollination in greenhouses. In this project, we placed commercial hives of the bumblebee B. terrestris containing one queen and 40 workers, in three different locations in the region of Ghent (Belgium), and the performance of these hives was followed during a 4-week period in spring 2012. In parallel, we determined the floral richness and diversity index in the chosen study sites. The sites consisted of a rich urban environment with patchy green areas opposed to an urban environment with poor landscape metrics; a third rural study site showed average positive landscape metrics. The results demonstrated that the hive biomass and numbers of workers increased significantly in the rich compared to the poor environment, providing a mechanism to discriminate between study sites. In addition, the bumblebee-collected pollen showed that the flowering plants Salix spp. and Rosaceae/Prunus spp. are dominant food sources in all anthropogenic environments during early spring. Finally, the results are discussed in relation to the optimization of the experimental setup and to the use of commercial bumblebee hives in assessing local pollinator support within any given environment.     

Investigations of mercury concentrations in walleye and other fish in the Athabasca River ecosystem with increasing oil sands developments

Recent studies have reported an increasing trend of mercury concentrations in walleye (Sander vitreus) from the Athabasca River, north eastern Alberta (Canada); these studies were based on three years of comparison and attributed the mercury increase to expanding oil sands developments in the region. In order to conduct a more comprehensive analysis of mercury trends in fish, we compiled an extensive database for walleye, lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), northern pike (Esox lucius) and lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) using all available data obtained from provincial, federal, and industry-funded monitoring and other programs. Evidence for increasing trends in mercury concentrations were examined for each species by location and year also considering fish weight and length. In the immediate oil sands area of the Athabasca River, mercury concentrations decreased (p < 0.001) in walleye and lake whitefish over 1984-2011. In western Lake Athabasca and its delta, mercury concentrations decreased (p < 0.0001) in northern pike (1981-2009) although no trend was evident for walleye (1981-2005) and lake trout (1978-2009). Mercury concentrations in lake trout from Namur Lake, a small lake west of the oil sands area, were higher in 2007 than 2000 (p < 0.0001); it is difficult to ascribe this increase to an oil sands impact because similar increases in mercury concentrations have been observed in lake trout from similar sized lakes in the Northwest Territories. While mercury emissions rates have increased with oil sands development and the landscape become more disturbed, mercury concentrations remained low in water and sediments in the Athabasca River and its tributaries and similar to concentrations observed outside the development areas and in earlier decades. Our fish database was assembled from a series of studies that differed in study purpose, design, and analytical methods. Future monitoring programs investigating mercury trends in fish should be more rigorous in their design.     

Desertification of the eastern Karoo,South Africa: Conflicting paleoecological,historical, and soil isotopic evidence

The desertification debate in South Africa has benefitted greatly in recent years from the contributions of a wide range of disciplines. In this paper we review the conflicting and supporting evidence for degradation in the eastern Karoo as reported in recent archaeological, historical, and stable carbon isotope studies as it relates to three key aspects of the debate: the precolonial environment, the rate and nature of change, and the relative contributions of humans and climate to the process. First, all studies suggest a greater grassiness at some time in the past, but researchers disagree on the timing of the switch to more shrubby conditions in the eastern Karoo. Second, regional rainfall records for the past 2 decades reveal an above-average rainfall period, and numerous long-term surveys show an increase in grass cover over the same period. These findings question the expanding Karoo hypothesis as well as the argument that the Karoo's carrying capacity has decreased in recent years. Finally, the relative responsibilities of humans and climate in the degradation process remain poorly understood and generally have not formed the focus of investigation.     

Mercury trends in fish from rivers and lakes in the United States, 1969�C2005

A national dataset on concentrations of mercury in fish, compiled mainly from state and federal monitoring programs, was used to evaluate trends in mercury (Hg) in fish from US rivers and lakes. Trends were analyzed on data aggregated by site and by state, using samples of the same fish species and tissue type, and using fish of similar lengths. Site-based trends were evaluated from 1969 to 2005, but focused on a subset of the data from 1969 to 1987. Data aggregated by state were used to evaluate trends in fish Hg concentrations from 1988 to 2005. In addition, the most recent Hg fish data (1996?C2005) were compared to wet Hg deposition data from the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) over the same period. Downward trends in Hg concentrations in fish from data collected during 1969?C1987 exceeded upward trends by a ratio of 6 to 1. Declining Hg accumulation rates in sediment and peat cores reported by many studies during the 1970s and 1980s correspond with the period when the most downward trends in fish Hg concentrations occurred. Downward Hg trends in both sediment cores and fish were also consistent with the implementation of stricter regulatory controls of direct releases of Hg to the atmosphere and surface waters during the same period. The southeastern USA had more upward Hg trends in fish than other regions for both site and state aggregated data. Upward Hg trends in fish from the southeastern USA were associated with increases in wet deposition in the region and may be attributed to a greater influence of global atmospheric Hg emissions in the southeastern USA. No significant trends were found in 62% of the fish species from six states from 1996 to 2005. A lack of Hg trends in fish in the more recent data was consistent with the lack of trends in wet Hg deposition at MDN sites and with relatively constant global emissions during the same time period. Although few significant trends were observed in the more recent Hg concentrations in fish, it is anticipated that Hg concentrations in fish will respond to changes in atmospheric Hg deposition, however, the magnitude and timing of the response is uncertain.     

两种应用场景下NDVI时间序列数据拟合方法研究

植被覆盖指数（NDVI）时间序列数据集包含地表植被的长势、生长周期、时空变化等信息,其拟合重建结果可应用于物候信息提取、生态质量评价、人类活动扰动识别、覆被变化动态监测等方面。基于TIMESAT软件,选取物候参数提取和扰动识别2个应用场景,结合地面站点数据和Jacknife法模拟数据,对比分析非对称高斯函数拟合法（AG法）、双Logistic函数拟合法（D-L法）和Savitzky-Golay滤波法（S-G法）3种方法的拟合效果。结果表明：（1）3种方法拟合重建后提取的生长开始时间（SOS）、生长结束时间（EOS）、生长周期（LOS）等物候参数接近站点数据,AG法和D-L法保持NDVI时序曲线整体变化特征的能力较强,提取的SOS和EOS更接近站点数据;（2）人类活动扰动识别应用场景中,S-G法在滤波时能够最大限度地保留时序曲线细节变化,恢复速率相关系数达到0.618,回归估计标准差低于AG法和D-L法,因此识别精度最优。     

Sustainability of winter tourism in a changing climate over Kashmir Himalaya

Mountain areas are sensitive to climate change. Implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. Climate change is also a severe threat to snow-related winter sports such as skiing, snowboarding, and cross-country skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to know the impact of climate change on the snow precipitation, water resources, and winter tourism in the two famous tourist resorts of the Kashmir Valley. Our findings show that winters are getting prolonged with little snow falls on account of climate change. The average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing statistically significant increasing trends for winter months. The precipitation is showing decreasing trends in both the regions. A considerable area in these regions remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons. However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from past few years. Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers. The predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate model are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region. Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region.     

Climate change impact on the olive pollen season in Mediterranean areas of Italy: air quality in late spring from an allergenic point of view

Recent studies have shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens, and thus on allergic diseases in humans. In the Mediterranean region, despite the importance of the olive tree for production, there is high allergenicity of olive pollen and related risks to human health. Aerobiological sampling techniques can be used to analyse the pollinosis phenomenon through determination of mean daily pollen concentrations per cubic metre of air. The present study was carried out from 1999 to 2008 in 16 olive-growing areas in Italy, to update the information on the pollinosis characteristics of Olea europaea in the study areas. The analysis of the average flowering season over the study period highlights a temporal scaling of pollen in the atmosphere that depends on the different climatic characteristics. This is mainly dependent on temperature, and in part, determined by latitude. Generally, the levels of O. europaea pollen in the atmosphere are higher from mid-April to the end of June, with the period of greatest risk to human health due to this olive pollen in this area currently limited primarily to the last 10 days of May. However, the pollen season can move, depending on the climate scenario considered, and data here can be used to determine potential time shifts in pollinosis that might cause more precocious asthma and allergy problems. The allergy season for this type of pollen might be significantly precocious in future decades (20–30 days earlier in the year), which will impact on the severity and duration of allergies attributable to olive tree pollen.