我国海岸带灾害的加剧发展及其防御方略

中国大陆海岸带绵长1.8万公里,地跨12个省市,是我国人口密集、经济发展最快的地区。出现的严重灾害有台风、风暴潮、洪涝、地震海啸、海岸侵蚀、盐水入侵、海冰、地基下沉、污染、赤潮等十类,并互相叠加,形成年直接经济损失100亿元以上。全球海平面上升与人类活动加强,使海岸带灾害加剧发展,粗略估计到下世纪初中期,导致的损失可能达到1000亿元以上,是海岸带经济发展的重要制约因素。必须提高全民防灾意识,在调查研究基础上,拟订海岸带减灾规划;加强灾害的监测、预报和预警;加高加固防潮防洪大堤与护岸工程,疏浚内陆洼地和城市排洪河道,提高排水能力;保护地下水源,严格限制过量开采,以防止地面下沉和盐水入侵;合理开发海岸带资源,保护生态环境,严格限制超标排污;积极参加国际合作,逐步限制CO_2等温室气体的排放,和缓海平面上升趋势,争取大幅度减轻海岸带灾害。     

Social impact of the 2004 Manawatu floods and the 'hollowing out' of rural New Zealand

The Manawatu floods of 2004 have had significant, long-lasting social consequences. This paper draws on findings from a series of detailed surveys of 39 farm households directly affected by the floods and 17 individuals directly involved in managing the flood recovery programme. The nature of the impact on rural families highlights how the 'hollowing out' of rural New Zealand has changed the capacity of rural communities to respond to natural hazards and increased their sense of isolation. In addition, the floods exposed the vulnerability of rural communities. This is shown to have implications for policies designed to build resilience and improve responses to adverse events, including the need to support local, community initiatives on self-reliance and mutual support. Approaches to manage better long-term flood risks should be designed within a context of ongoing rural decline that has compromised the health of both individuals and communities.     

长江中游西部地区洪水灾害的历史演变——人文因素与当前趋势

探讨了近3000年来长江中游西部洪水灾害发展的人文因素。古代（3000—700aBP）人口较少，多择地势高的岗地居住，只有少数沿江城市需要堤防保护；长江干流洪水可多处分道散流，所携带泥沙导致云梦泽解体消亡。自宋代开始，低地筑垸围湖，与水争地，但九穴十三口畅通，洪水灾害不严重。明代（700—450a B P）几乎完全堵塞了荆江北流的穴口，荆北大堤联成一体，但堤防薄弱，出现过30次决口成灾。清代以来，随着人口激增，与水争地矛盾加剧，堤防加高培厚，使荆江河道洪水位大幅度上升，溃堤和溃坝洪水灾害较明代成倍出现。同时，历代的“舍南保北”政策迫使长江干流大洪水中过半水量与泥沙向南泄入洞庭湖，曾使洞庭湖面积扩至6000km^2，以后洞庭湖迅速淤积萎缩。1949至1985年间，人口又一次迅速增长，进一步加强围湖垦殖，大量通江湖泊面积萎缩。除1954和1998年那样人所共知的严重洪水灾害外，内涝渍水灾害也非常严重，人类与洪水的矛盾达到了顶点。改革开放后，尤其是三峡大坝的修建，极大地改变了长江中游的水文情势，工业化与城市化的迅猛发展，农村人口压力减轻，而21世纪初期降水相对较少，因此当前相当一段时间长江中游洪水灾害大为缓和。应抓住时机，总结经验，在人地和谐的现代水科学技术理念指导下，制定21世纪前半期，特别是2020年前的长江水利和水资源发展规划，促使人与洪水和谐共处。     

中国历史洪水和洪水灾害的自然历史特征

在较长的时段内,考察分析洪水和洪水灾害的自然历史特征,并凭借现代技术手段来揭示其发生、演变的规律,这是一项有开创意义和应用价值的工作。本文提出了历史洪水和洪水灾害自然历史特征的概念,并就其实际应用的领域和途径进行了探讨。     

The 1934 floods in Tabriz, N. W. Iran

The disastrous floods of July 1934 in Tabriz are examined in the context of the history of floodinginthe city, which is crossed by a dry stream bed liable to sudden Inundation by mountain torrents from the southeast. Few details of past events have survived, suggesting that relatively little significance has been attached to them. Typically, flood dykes were inadequately maintained. This neglect, combined with a radical alteration in urban topography after 1925, when broad straight avenues were constructed through the old heart of the city, led to serious losses from flooding twice in 1929 and again in 1934. Enhanced perception of the flood risk finally found expression in the adoption of large scale engineering measures to mitigate future events, including strengthening protective dykes and widening the river channel through the city. These works have reduced vulnerability to flooding from river overflow. No long-term detrimental Impact of the 1934 flood has been observed. Some of the physical and social parameters that have influenced the vulnerability of Tabrizinthe past continue to be present both there and elsewhere in Iran, and they may be characteristic also of other regions with comparable natural environments or in a similar stage of socio-economic development.     

Flood management in Canada at the crossroads

Abstract

Although Canadian flood management efforts have gained worldwide recognition, flood damages continue to increase. The current practice for preventing, responding to and recovering from floods in Canada is described by focusing attention on the 1997 Red River and 1996 Saguenay River floods. A set of cultures is identified that contribute to the trend of increasing flood damages. These include a culture of conflict, a culture of land development, a culture that impeded native people from easily implementing flood management programs, a culture of institutional fragmentation and a culture of dependency. These foster an inevitable cycle of increasing flood damages. The potential of recent proposals made by Emergency Preparedness Canada and the Insurance Bureau of Canada to address these cultures is assessed. While these documents represent significant progress, they continue to adopt an intermittent project rather an ongoing program perspective, fail to identify the need to adopt specific initiatives tailored for aboriginal communities, and ignore the need to enhance the operational capacity of relevant public and private participants. Addressing these requirements will further reduce future losses and vulnerability.     

Flood vulnerability and commercial activities: the case of the city of Girona, Spain

This paper is based on a case study of the city of Girona in Catalonia, Spain, and analyses the vulnerability of commercial establishments to floods caused by the Onyar River. A mapping and statistical approach (cluster analysis) was applied to the information obtained from 568 questionnaires answered by the shops and the workshops located in the flood risk area. The results obtained allowed the authors to determine five different flood vulnerability profiles of the commercial establishments analysed. These profiles paint a picture of little individual adaptation to the risk and the possibility of suffering, sooner or later, large economic losses due to overflowing of the Onyar River. The authors established a methodology for carrying out a detailed multidimensional analysis of the flood vulnerability of the city's commercial establishments in order to provide the foundations for local government policies and for strategies for shop owners to reduce flood vulnerability.     

基于GIS的广西农业暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估

以自然灾害风险评估理论和方法为指导,遥感本底数据、气象数据、基础地理信息数据、社会经济数据为基础数据,构建广西农业暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系,采用层次分析及加权综合法建立农业暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型;借助GIS技术,计算广西农业暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力及综合风险指数,并对广西农业暴雨洪涝灾害进行风险区划,采用相关分析法将广西农业暴雨洪涝灾害风险结果与广西历史暴雨洪涝灾情数据进行对比验证,研究结果表明,农业暴雨洪涝风险分布结果与洪涝灾情损失的空间分布基本吻合,南部沿海的风险性最强,西部风险性最小。     

1998年全国洪涝灾害遥感监测评估的主要成果--基于网络的洪涝灾情遥感速报系统的应用

介绍了基于网络的洪涝灾害遥感速报系统在１９９８年全轩特大洪涝灾害监测评估中的主要应用成果，包括动态监测、农作物损失评估、防洪工程有效性分析、险工险段调查分析、城市洪灾监测、工业区生命线工程易损性评估、长江洪水蓄必要性分析、防三灾决策建议和灾后重建家园功能分区规划等。     

Flash flood mitigation: recommendations for research and applications

Abstract

New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods.     

基于灰色理论的黑龙江省暴雨洪涝特征分析及灾变预测

基于灰色理论和气象灾害普查资料对黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害时空分布特征进行了分析并进行了灾变预测。黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害主要发生在5-9月,其中7月损失最大;1990年以来暴雨次数虽然有所减少,但暴雨洪涝造成的损失却明显增加;黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害可划分为严重洪涝区、重洪涝区、中洪涝区和轻洪涝区,严重洪涝区位于松花江及其支流沿岸的大庆市、伊春市、齐齐哈尔市、佳木斯市和哈尔滨市。根据灰色灾变预测理论预测2013年出现严重暴雨洪涝灾害(全省农作物受灾面积≥500 000 hm2、可比经济损失≥50 000万元)的可能性最大,其次是2016年。     

Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation

Over the past few decades, four distinct and largely independent research and policy communities--disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, environmental management and poverty reduction--have been actively engaged in reducing socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards. However, despite the significant efforts of these communities, the vulnerability of many individuals and communities to natural hazards continues to increase considerably. In particular, it is hydro-meteorological hazards that affect an increasing number of people and cause increasingly large economic losses. Arising from the realisation that these four communities have been largely working in isolation and enjoyed only limited success in reducing vulnerability, there is an emerging perceived need to strengthen significantly collaboration and to facilitate learning and information exchange between them. This article examines key communalities and differences between the climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction communities, and proposes three exercises that would help to structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process.     

道光三年（1823年）华北大水初析

1823年华北大水对清王朝盛衰转折变化有很深远的影响。本文根据史料对这次大水的雨情、水情、灾情进行了较全面的分析,并将这次大水同清代其它各次大水进行比较,阐明这场大水影响深远的原因,并指出存在一个多方面因子所组成的自然灾害系统。     

Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen: a simulation analysis

Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts can have devastating consequences for individual well being and economic development, in particular in poor societies with limited availability of coping mechanisms. Combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Yemeni economy with a household‐level calorie consumption simulation model, this paper assesses the economy‐wide, agricultural and food security effects of the 2008 tropical storm and flash flood that hit the Hadramout and Al‐Mahrah governorates. The estimation results suggest that agricultural value added, farm household incomes and rural food security deteriorated long term in the flood‐affected areas. Due to economic spillover effects, significant income losses and increases in food insecurity also occurred in areas that were unaffected by flooding. This finding suggests that while most relief efforts are typically concentrated in directly affected areas, future efforts should also consider surrounding areas and indirectly affected people.     

The Protection of China's Ancient Cities from Flood Damage

Over many centuries, the repeated and serious flooding of many of China's ancient cities has led to the development of various measures to mitigate the impact of floods. These have included structural measures, such as the construction of walls, dams and dykes, with tree planting for soil consolidation; installation of drainage systems and water storage capacity; the raising of settlement levels and the strengthening of building materials. Non-structural measures include warning systems and planning for emergency evacuation. Urban planning and architectural design have evolved to reduce flood damage, and government officials have been appointed with specific responsibilities for managing the flood control systems. In view of the serious consequences of modern neglect of these well-tried methods, this paper examines China's historical experience of flooding and demonstrates its continuing relevance for today. A brief historical survey is followed by a detailed discussion of various flood prevention measures. The paper is illustrated by city plans from ancient local chronicles.     

全球变暖与中国旱涝灾害大势的初步研究

旱涝灾害受气候变化的制约，还深受人类活动的影响。本研究一方面用历史类比方法研究近５００年我国历史冷朝时期的旱涝分布特征，另一方面分析人类活动，特别是城市建设发展对旱涝灾害的影响。最后将两者叠加，勾划出全球变化和未来社会经济形势下我国旱涝灾害分布大势。结果显示：在未来稳定暖的时期，长江中下游、江南、华南及嘉陵江上游地区易涝，其中以东南沿海为甚；黄淮、华北、环渤海湾地区易旱，其中以黄淮为甚。     

家户水灾社会脆弱性的评估方法研究——以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一，研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有着极为重要的意义。但是，合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战。利用Hoovering改进模式，选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区，对研究区内的家户进行了社会脆弱性评价。结果表明，长沙市区的5个区内，高脆弱性家户最多的是天心区，最少的是雨花区。而就社区而言，高脆弱性家户最多的足裕南街街道和桔子洲街道。该结果反映了长沙不同行政区、社区社会脆弱性的差别，可供确定受援地区和受援人群及开展援助活动，乃至灾后日常风险管理参考。     

Assessing community vulnerability to floods and hurricanes along the Gulf Coast of the United States

Hurricanes and flooding have affected millions of people and generated massive economic losses over the past several decades. Geographic information system (GIS) methods are employed in this paper to analyse coastal communities' vulnerability to these two hazards along the Gulf Coast of the United States. Specifically, two types of quantitative indicators are developed: (i) exposure to hurricanes and flooding, based on information from multiple sources; and a social vulnerability index, constructed using census data. These indices are combined to depict the spatial patterns of overall community vulnerability to hurricanes and flooding along the US Gulf Coast. The results of this study can potentially inform disaster management agencies, county governments, and municipalities in areas at heightened risk. Furthermore, the demonstration of the geographic distribution of community vulnerability can assist decision-makers in prioritising to-do items and designing policies and plans for the more effective allocation of resources. The paper ends by discussing the study's limitations and its practical implications.     

How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather‐related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision‐making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national‐level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.     

Unauthorised development and seismic hazard vulnerability: a study of squatters and engineers in Istanbul, Turkey

Many cities in developing nations have experienced an influx of poor migrants in search of work. This population influx has often been accommodated through land squatting, irregular construction and unauthorised housing. For the urban poor, this has resulted in immediate affordable housing; however, this housing frequently has long-term vulnerability to natural hazards. This article examines the ways in which squatters in Istanbul, Turkey, understand the seismic vulnerability of their unauthorised housing. Distrust of professional engineers and contractors has led Istanbul squatters to believe that self-built housing will not only be less costly but also safer than commercially built housing. The impact of residents' risk perceptions on their vulnerability to natural hazards is examined through a comparison of social attitudes regarding safe housing and the quality of unauthorised construction. This comparison highlights how squatters' risk perceptions necessitate innovative means of reducing vulnerability in unauthorised neighbourhoods of developing cities.