Pre-evacuation path planning in chemicals-concentrated areas with risk assessment and individual character analysis

With the ever-increasing development of those chemical parks (concentrated areas), the inherent hazards may remain the major leading cause of serious casualties, causing dramatic increases in deaths and injuries. Despite this, proper path beforehand can effectively minimise the number of deaths or injured. In this study, in order to better address the aforesaid issue, the pre-evacuation path planning was adopted to do so. This method can serve to prepare emergency response in case of extreme events, such as fires, explosions, or dangerous leakages, because these accidents could happen in chemical parks (concentrated areas). To that end, a framework was therefore proposed. First, the general risk representation was conducted. After the main hazards as well as the vulnerability within the facilities was identified, the interaction between those two factors could be expressed with matrices. This was followed by the analysis of the domino effect, which tends to occur under such circumstances. Second, individuals' visibility and inclination at each location to choose the nearest exit gate or shelter zone were analyzed by space syntax analysis. Third, a weighted risk map mainly composed of risk, individual's visibility, and inclination of exits was therefore generated. And the lowest cumulative risk path was simulated and analyzed accordingly. Finally, the map modified with received risks suggests that each individual's safest route from their current locations can be possibly simulated with Dijkstra's algorithm, which corresponds to the lowest cumulative risk. For the purposes of illustration and validation, a real case was adopted. The results demonstrated that this framework could provide both technical and theoretical support for the pre-evacuation path planning in chemicals-concentrated areas like chemicals-concentrated areas.     

危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系探讨

危险品道路运输是一个复杂的系统,风险管理涉及危险品运输规划和事故应急响应。本文介绍了现有的危险品运输风险管理模式和基本管理原则,基于运输风险评估、运输路径优化、应急单位优化选址和选线、人员疏散管理以及事件决策管理等构建了危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系,阐述了系统基本要素之间的相互关系。危险品道路运输过程风险管理是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于减少危险品运输事故概率和降低运输沿线影响人员风险,为政府监管部门和危险品生产经营单位的运输安全管理、优化选线以及应急救援等工作提供技术依据,合理规划危险品运输系统。     

基于自适应蚁群算法的化工园区毒气泄漏事故疏散路径规划*

为了降低人员在化工园区毒气泄漏事故中的伤亡风险,提出1种综合考虑疏散路径距离和毒性负荷值的自适应蚁群算法。通过建立路径评价函数,将疏散路径的毒性负荷值引入蚁群算法中,改进算法的信息素更新策略,采用启发式因子自适应调整策略并改进算法的启发式函数。运用Matlab软件进行仿真,将算法应用到某化工园区毒气泄漏事故中。研究结果表明:该自适应蚁群算法可以保持较高的搜索速度,在寻找距离最短道路的同时避开毒性负荷较高的疏散路径,可为化工园区毒气泄漏事故的应急疏散路径规划提供参考。     

地铁火灾应急疏散路线规划与对策

为有效控制地铁内灾难发生、避免重大伤亡和损失,预先对地铁火灾进行模拟并制定相应疏散方案是必要的。首先,通过大量地铁案例分析,得出火灾发生概率、类型和部位。其次,对研究对象的数据进行收集,测绘形成图纸,并建立模型。最后,以北京地铁西直门站为例,在确定火灾情景后,利用PyroSim模拟地铁火灾,分析火灾发生时地铁内的环境温度、烟气浓度及可见度等因素对疏散的影响;根据测量所得人员参数,利用Pathfinder模拟疏散情况,分析疏散过程中的时间点、拥挤度和疏散瓶颈等不利因素;在火灾和疏散结果对比和分析中,提出地铁火灾疏散路线的规划及对策,建立多套消防救援方案,分析合理的救援路线,并对地铁内部的应急防控能力提出建议。     

学生公寓安全疏散模拟与安全对策研究

高校学生公寓火灾事故会造成严重的财产损失和人员伤亡,选取某高校学生公寓作为研究对象,通过疏散模拟软件Pathfinder建立疏散模型,对人员的紧急疏散过程进行简单的模拟,得出火灾发生时人员安全疏散完毕所需时间,同时结合学生公寓的实际情况提出安全疏散对策,为类似的火灾问题及安全疏散提供借鉴意义。     

疏散路径受阻情况下的人员疏散模型及算法

建筑火灾中,随着火势的不断增大和烟气的不断增多,随时会有某条疏散路径因被火势或烟气封堵而不能正常通行的情况发生。针对此情况下的应急疏散问题,以待疏散人员全部完成疏散所需时间最短为目标,以结合疏散路径的通行能力合理分配待疏散人员为原则,运用Dijkstra算法对网络中的最短路径进行求解,并结合网络流控制的方法实现疏散人员的合理分配,建立了疏散路径受阻情况下的人员疏散模型,并提出了该模型的算法思想及算法步骤,最后结合算例进行了验证。验证结果表明,该模型及算法可行、有效,既可较好地避免因大量人员选择相同疏散路线而造成的拥堵,还提高了疏散网络的整体使用率,又有效缩短了人员的疏散所需时间。     

城市轨道交通火灾事故风险评估及对策措施

运用故障树安全评价的方法和火灾风险评估中的定量分析方法,以人员安全为出发点,对轨道交通运营过程火灾事故风险进行评估。并对重庆市轻轨2号线临江门车站进行紧急情况下人员疏散计算,判断轻轨临江门车站发生火灾等紧急事故时,能否确保乘客的人身安全。结合轨道交通现状给出相应对策措施,降低事故发生的可能性,确保乘客生命安全和财产不受损失。     

地铁事故应急疏散模拟及优化研究

为探究如何提高地铁车站应急疏散的效率,以我国近十年来地铁常见事故类型统计为基础,在事故风险分析的前提下,利用风险矩阵和元胞自动机设定应急疏散等级,分析不同事故水平下相应疏散措施。以北京地铁西直门站为实例,使用疏散仿真软件Pathfinder构建模拟环境,对高峰时期下站内最短逃生路径进行疏散模拟;按照事故与疏散的响应过程,从预防次生事故角度出发,针对西直门站疏散过程中可能发生的踩踏事故的诱发因素进行优化;研究拥堵对疏散进度的具体影响,选取使用率较低的M通道设施,进行不同使用率下的多次模拟,得到最优的疏散方案,研究结果可为进一步提高疏散设施利用率、改善应急疏散效果提供技术支持。     

Using consequence – based hazard zone assessment for effective evacuation planning of vulnerable settlements along hazmat transport corridors through industrial city of Surat in western India

Following a toxic hazmat release, decisions need to be made vis-a-vis a safe evacuation distance for population along the transportation route, or whether to shelter-in-place if there is insufficient time to conduct an evacuation. The first responder may have to take these decisions through a quick estimation of the Initial Isolation Zone (IIZ) and protective action distances based on assumed rate of releases. Real-time evacuation planning models could be used for effective evacuation purposes. However, factors that usually were taken into account include weather conditions, population density, time of day, and uncertainty about the chemicals involved and/or the accumulating concentrations in public areas. Emergency planning including evacuation in India is generally in line with UNEP's APELL (Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level) methodology. However, quantitative risk based assessment is catching up particularly in large industrial zones. The paper highlights a case study of the evaluation of identified seven critical evacuation planning zones along three highway study routes in and around the industrial city of Surat in western India. The elapsed time after a release is estimated through ALOHA and evacuation travel time estimates are made for each zone. For identified scenarios, evacuation of IIZ, generally comprising of road side population, is effectively possible in six out of seven identified emergency planning zones except in zone-7, where certain people would still be exposed, as full evacuation may not be achieved. However, shelter-in-place would be advisable for population residing in permanent settlements within the protective action zone.     

城镇油气管道事故应急疏散决策优化

为实现油气管道事故中城镇大规模应急疏散的智慧决策,构建基于改进的自适应蚁群算法的应急疏散路径优化模型,开发基于油气管道典型事故后果分析的城镇大规模应急疏散决策优化系统平台(LSSED)。LSSED在地理信息系统平台上,针对油气管道泄漏引起的扩散、喷射火、池火、BLEVE、蒸气云爆炸等典型事故进行事故后果分析,对疏散通道当量长度和疏散时间成本函数进行定量评价,实现大规模应急疏散方案的智慧决策和避难方案的全局优化。案例分析表明,LSSED平台实现了基于地理信息系统的典型事故时变环境信息和应急疏散路径优化算法的数据传递及系统集成,实现了基于事故后果分析的城镇大规模人群疏散路径和避难方案优化,可为城镇安全规划和应急管理提供参考和借鉴。     

基于动态毒性负荷的人员疏散安全评估方法

毒气泄漏事故在高含硫气田及化工园区频繁发生,一旦发生事故,周边公众迅速进行疏散是应急的首要任务。我国很多地区制定了疏散方案,但是如何评估疏散的安全性和可行性,是亟待解决的问题。分析了我国泄漏事故特点和周边居民情况,对以往评估方法缺陷进行了剖析,提出基于动态毒性负荷分析的安全疏散评估方法。该方法在毒气扩散的精确3d模拟及疏散模拟的基础上,用差分法对人员行走过程中的毒性负荷Pc进行的计算,最终得出相应的致死概率Pr,并通过一个实例验证该方法的可行性。结果表明,运用该方法能够详尽、准确规划疏散区域、搬迁区域和避难区域。     

人员密集场所突发火灾事故应急疏散能力分析

本文针对人员密集场所空间结构特征和火灾事故特点,从场所的疏散通道、疏散设施、人员聚集特性及应急疏散管理等方面辨识了突发火灾事故人员应急疏散能力的影响因素,给出了场所应急疏散空间的评估因素、评估指标以及以疏散路线、疏散照明和疏散标识为主的场所应急疏散能力检查表,提出以人员群集指数、人员群集流量系数来反映人员群集流动特性。在此基础上,根据火灾蔓延对疏散路径的影响状况将人员密集场所的应急疏散风险划分为较高、一般、较低三级。人员密集场所火灾应急疏散能力评估对于确保火灾中人员的生命安全具有重要的意义,对于场所的疏散优化设计、日常消防监管以及疏散应急预案的合理制定和日常疏散演练具有现实指导意义。     

考虑人员伤亡的高校宿舍火灾风险评估方法研究

为提高高校宿舍楼火灾应急疏散效率,以某高校宿舍楼为例,建立可用疏散时间(ASET)概率密度函数的三角分布模型,并利用FDS软件进行火灾模拟,得到函数中各参数值;运用Pathfinder软件对人员疏散进行模拟,得到火灾未疏散人数与时间的函数;通过对上述2个函数的乘积进行积分,得到不同火灾场景下的伤亡人数.结果 表明:影响...     

基于多事故模式的有毒易燃气体道路运输泄漏事故应急疏散范围研究

为确定有毒易燃气体道路运输泄漏事故应急救援的应急疏散范围,降低人员伤亡程度,在对泄漏事故及后续次生灾害演化模式分析的基础上,提出了基于多事故模式的应急疏散范围综合确定方法,分析了多事故模式后果预测的相关理论,明确了应急疏散区域综合确定的步骤和流程。以道路运输氨气泄漏事故为例,采用MATLAB软件对不同时间下的中毒和蒸气云爆炸事故伤害范围分别进行了数值模拟研究。结果表明：相较于单一事故模式,基于多事故模式的应急疏散范围综合确定方法更为科学、合理和准确,能为有毒易燃气体道路运输泄漏事故的应急疏散提供更加精确和可靠的决策依据。     

Model off-site emergency plan. Case study: toxic gas release from a fertilizer unit

An emergency plan is a formal written plan which, on the basis of identified potential accidents together with their consequences, describes how such accidents and their consequences should be handled either on-site or off-site. The primary objective of the off-site emergency plan for a hazardous installation is the prevention of accidents resulting in harm to human health, the environment or property. The prevention of accidents involving hazardous substances is the concern of many interested parties, including public authorities (district emergency authority, police, fire and medical services etc.) at all levels, industry and the community. This paper provides an overview of the release scenarios and affected areas, rescue and evacuation plans, communication and public information systems, roles and responsibilities of the district emergency authority, police, fire and medical authorities and their training, testing the plan/mock drill performance, review/observations, and finalization.     

紧急疏散路径选择行为的实验研究

通过可控的人群疏散实验来分析紧急情况下的人群疏散规律。实验选取了建筑物出口位置、出口宽度设置作为实验变量开展。主要关注的参数有疏散时间和疏散速度。疏散人群在实验中自行选择认为最合适的路线。实验结果指出,在紧急情况下出口的距离和宽度共同影响了疏散的整体效率和疏散过程中的拥挤程度。女性的疏散行为值得关注,并且行人在疏散过程中,是分阶段决策疏散路径的,在仿真模型中可通过局部路径规划算法实现。疏散场景的布局对疏散效率的提高有较大影响,单纯增加局部出口的宽度以及缩短疏散路径对于提高整体疏散效率帮助不大。本研究成果对疏散模型的改进以及建筑设计有一定的指导意义。     

城市道路的人员疏散风险评价研究*

为量化评价城市道路在人员疏散过程中存在的风险,以支持城市道路规划,以及有效开展应急疏散管理,提出1种城市道路的人员疏散风险评价方法。该方法设定多种影响因素,构建道路疏散风险评价函数,并结合临界簇模型,运用实时交通态势数据与动态人口数据,评估不同时间的道路疏散风险。以上海市外环线内区域为研究区,开展道路疏散风险综合评价与突发事件情景下的道路疏散风险评价。结果表明:该方法可以有效综合多种影响因素,空间量化表达道路的人员疏散风险。评价结果能够为城市道路设施规划提供帮助,为提升城市应急疏散管理效率,降低事故的伤亡与损失提供决策依据。     

Combustion products toxicity risk assessment in an offshore installation

Products of a hydrocarbon fire accident have both chronic and acute health effects. They cause respiratory issues to lung cancer. While fire is the most frequent phenomenon among the offshore accidents, predicting the contaminants’ concentration and their behavior are key issues. Safety measures design, such as ventilation and emergency routes based only on predicted contaminants’ concentration seems not to be the best approach. In a combustion process, various harmful substances are produced and their concentration cannot be added. The time duration that any individual spends in different locations of an offshore installation also varies significantly. A risk-based approach considers the duration a person is exposed to contaminants at various locations and also evaluates the hazardous impacts. A risk-based approach has also an additivity characteristic which helps to assess overall risk.Through the current study, an approach is proposed to be used for risk assessment of combustion products dispersion phenomenon in a confined or semi-confined facility. Considering CO, NO₂ and CH₄ as the contaminants of concern, the dispersion of the substances over the layout of the facility after a LNG fire is modeled. Considering different exposure times for three major parts of the facility including the processing area, office area and the accommodation module, the risk contours of CO, NO₂ and CH₄ over the entire facility are developed. The additivity characteristic of the risk-based approach was used to calculate the overall risk. The proposed approach helps to better design safety measures to minimize the impacts and effective emergency evacuation planning.     

建筑物火灾时人员的认知水平对疏散心理和行为影响研究

在建筑物火灾中,个体行为因人员的个体特征、认知水平、社会特质、面临不同危险局面等因素的不同会呈现出极大的差异性。因此,在建筑物火灾中,人员应急疏散策略和方案在充分考虑紧急情况下外界环境因素的同时,还必须综合考虑处于火灾等紧急情况下的人员心理和行为特征。本研究是在大量调查问卷获得的数据和资料的基础上,基于一定的数学模型,利用相应的统计分析方法,主要讨论体现人员认知水平的文化程度、消防知识与经验二个因素对疏散心理和行为的影响特点。研究结果将充实我国人员疏散心理和行为反应数据库,为建筑防火性能化设计和人员消防培训提供基础数据和指导。     

高校火灾大学生疏散行为及心理特征分析

为了解高校突发火灾时人员疏散行为及心理,在参照其他人员密集场所应急疏散调查问卷的基础上,设计大学生疏散行为及心理特征调查问卷,并进行网络问卷调查。采用皮尔森卡方检验对应急个体特性、应急意识、应急经验、应急疏散条件与应急疏散心理及行为反应进行相关性分析,获取11组存在显著相关变量组。结果表明:男生在突发火灾时更冷静、自主,更愿意帮助他人;应急疏散心理及行为与消防安全关注程度、应急疏散设施及环境呈明显的正相关。因此可通过加强宣传教育、开展专业的消防教育及演练、完善疏散引导设施、增强安全出口的导向性等提高学生的应急疏散能力。