从洪灾的危害,看保护生态环境的重要性

一、洪灾对环境的破坏洪灾对环境是一次巨大的多方面的破坏。我省去年发生的洪灾,主要在沱江、涪江、嘉陵江、岷江流域20万平方公里范围内,人口稠密,交通方便,土地肥沃,物产富庶地区。这次特大洪灾,为什么集中在几条主要江河,涉及如此大的范围,     

国际

正厄尔尼诺致非洲农村大面积受灾非洲联盟委员会负责农村经济与农业事务的委员图姆斯米·罗达7月16日表示,厄尔尼诺事件对非洲南部和东部农业发展造成巨大破坏,非洲地区整体4%的农业年增长率可能因此下降。南部非洲4000万农民、70%的农村地区损失惨重,农业生产力遭到重创。干旱也冲击了东部非洲,特别是影响到埃塞俄比亚的农业产出,导致1000万民众食不果腹。     

厄尔尼诺与气候异常及对新疆的影响初探

厄尔尼诺与气候异常及对新疆的影响初探王玉辉，黄培 （新疆大学生物系乌鲁木齐８３００４６）据近期有关报道，９０年代第三次“厄尔尼诺”现象已在太平洋海域形成。笔者拟根据有关资料，论述这一现象的形成及其对世界、我国和新疆气候的影响，并讨论利用这一现象的可能?..     

缤纷资讯

国际资讯全球洪灾损失巨大世界银行和经合组织日前发表的研究报告指出,由气候变化导致的海平面上升使全球沿海城市面临洪水泛滥的危险,目前的防护措施根本不足以抵御地表下陷和水位上升带来的洪灾。如果全世界洪灾风险最大的沿海城市不采取必要的应对措施,到2050年,洪灾每年造成的损失总额可高达1万亿美元。     

国际

正厄尔尼诺侵蚀美加州海岸美国加利福尼亚州旧金山到半月湾之间的海岸,由于近期厄尔尼诺天气加快侵蚀,部分地段最近有6米宽的地面崩塌,大片已临近边缘的公寓随时可能掉进太平洋中。目前,住在加州帕斯菲卡市的居民已被迫撤离。专家多年来警告水土流失和海平面上升将造成太平洋沿岸洪水增加、海岸坍塌、强风暴雨和其他大规模变化。     

观点

中国沿海地区核电站可能面临上游洪灾的风险,至于湖北、湖南等地计划修建内陆滨河核电站,更需防范洪灾。但无论多大争议,核电还是要发展,不能因噎废食,关键在于如何发展。——针对一些业界人士存在盲目乐观倾向,对核电发展过程中的安全隐患重视不足,环     

国际资讯

世界银行和经合组织日前发表的研究报告指出，由气候变化导致的海平面上升使全球沿海城市面临洪水泛滥的危险，目前的防护措施根本不足以抵御地表下陷和水位上升带来的洪灾。如果全世界洪灾风险最大的沿海城市不采取必要的应对措施，到2050年，洪灾每年造成的损失总额可高达1万亿美元。     

中国如何应对气候变化

三十年前,全球变暖只是一小部分气候学家所关心的问题。如今,气候变化已经成为大家继失业和恐怖事件之后所关心的关系到生存和发展的重要问题。今年夏天在中国频繁出现的暴雨、洪灾、高温和干旱等异常天气更让气候变化问题在中国升温。     

图片新闻

<正>世界气象组织秘书长雅罗(Michel Jarraud)16日在报告发布会上指出,监测表明,过去三个月热带太平洋中东部地区海面温度已经比正常值高出2℃,超过厄尔尼诺阈值约1℃,说明此次厄尔尼诺处于非常显著的水平。来源:中国新闻网2015年11月17日     

环球扫描

亚洲洪灾泛滥源于生态系统遭破坏 气候变化可能令亚洲降雨量猛增，但专家指出，生态系统被破坏是更直接导致洪灾的因素。大面积的毁林，将湿地转变为农田或在湿地上修建城市，在自然排水系统中倾倒垃圾等都加剧了洪水的影响。     

SUWANNEE RIVER LONG RANGE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS BASED ON SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTORS1

ABSTRACT: A study of the influence of climate variability on streamflow in the southeastern United States is presented. Using a methodology previously applied to watersheds in Australia and the United States, a long range streamflow forecast (0 to 9 months in advance) is developed. Persistence (i.e., the previous season's streamflow) and climate predictors of the previous season are used to forecast the following season's (winter and spring) streamflow of the Suwannee River located in northern Florida. The winter and spring streamflow is historically the most likely to have severe flood events due to large scale cyclonic (frontal) storms. Results of the analysis indicated that a strong El Nino‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal exists at various lead times to the winter and spring streamflow of the Suwannee River. These results are based on the high correlation values of two commonly used measurements of ENSO strength, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and Sea Surface Temperature Range 1. Using the relationships developed between climate and streamflow, a continuous exceedance probability forecast was developed for two Suwannee River stations. The forecast system provided an improved forecast for ENSO years. The ability to predict above normal (flood) or below normal (drought) years can provide communities the necessary lead time to protect life, property, sensitive wetlands, and endangered and threatened species.     

Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Use Alterations on Frequency Distributions of Terrestrial Runoff Loading to Coastal Waters in Southern California1

Abstract: The transport of water, sediment, dissolved and particulate chemicals, and bacteria from coastal watersheds affects the nearshore marine and estuarine waters. In southern California, coastal watersheds deliver water and associated constituents to the nearshore system in discrete pulses. To better understand the pulsed nature of these watersheds, frequency distributions of simulated runoff events are presented for: (1) three land use conditions (1929, 1998, 2050); (2) three time periods (all water years 1989‐2002), only El Nino years (1992, 1993, 1995, 1998); and only non‐El Nino years; and (3) three regions (watershed, uplands, and lowlands). At the watershed scale, there was a significant increase (>200%) in mean event runoff from 1929 to 2050 (0.4‐1.3 cm) due to localized urbanization, which shifted the dominant sources of runoff from the mountains in 1929 (78% of watershed runoff) to the coastal plane for 2050 conditions (51% of watershed runoff). Inter‐annual climate variability was strong in the rainfall and runoff frequency distributions, with mean event rainfall and runoff 66 and 60% larger in El Nino relative to non‐El Nino years. Combining urbanization and climate variability, 2050 land conditions resulted in El Nino years being five times more likely to produce large (>3.0 cm) runoff events relative to non‐El Nino years. Combining frequency distributions of event runoff with regional nutrient export relationships, we show that in El Nino years, one in five events produced runoff ≥2.5 cm and temporary nearshore nitrate and phosphate concentrations of 12 and 1.4 μM, respectively, or approximately 5‐10 times above ambient conditions.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON RIVERS: CONSEQUENCES FOR LONG TERM WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Associations between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern and temporal variability in flow and 12 water quality variables were assessed at 77 river sites throughout New Zealand over a 13‐year period (1989 through 2001). Trends in water quality were determined for the same period. All 13 variables showed statistically significant linear regression relationships with values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The strongest relationships were for water temperature (mean R²= 0.20), dissolved reactive phosphorus (0.18), and oxidized nitrogen (0.17). The association with SOI varied by climate region. The observed patterns were generally consistent with known ENSO effects on New Zealand rainfall and air temperature. Trends in water quality variables for the periods 1989 through 1993, 1994 through 1998, and 1989 through 1998 were reasonably consistent with trends in SOI, even when the influence of river flow was removed from the data. This suggests that SOI effects on water quality are not necessarily a direct consequence of changes in flow associated with rainfall variation. In addition, both Baseline (32 upstream) and Impact (45 downstream) sites showed similar trends, indicating that changes in management were not directly responsible. We conclude that interpretation of long term water quality datasets in rivers requires that climate variability be fully acknowledged and dealt with explicitly in trend analyses.     

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Eastern U.S. Hydrology: Responses to Global Climate Variability

Coastal ecosystems are dependent on terrestrial freshwater export which is affected by both climate trends and natural climate variability. However, the relative role of these factors is not clear. Here, both climate trends and internal climate variabilities at different time scales are related to variations in terrestrial freshwater export into the eastern United States (U.S.) coastal region. For the recent 35‐year period, the intensified hydro‐meteorological processes (annual precipitation or evapotranspiration) may explain the observed streamflow variability in the northeast. However, in the southeast, streamflow is positively correlated with climate variability induced by the Pacific Ocean conditions (El Nino‐Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) rather than Atlantic Ocean conditions (Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation). The centroid location for volume of terrestrial freshwater export integrated along the eastern U.S. has a positive temporal trend and is negatively correlated with ENSO conditions, suggesting the northward trend in freshwater export to U.S. eastern coast may be disturbed by the natural climate variability, especially ENSO conditions, i.e., the center of freshwater mass moves southward (northward) during El Nino (La Nina) years. The results indicate the spatial and temporal variations in freshwater export from the eastern U.S. are affected by both climate change and inter‐annual climate variability during the recent 35‐year period (1980‐2014).     

SIMULATED IMPACTS OF EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON UNITED STATES WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena alter global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water supply. ENSO events impact regions and their natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997 and 1998, a strong El Nino brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding, and record snowfall to the west coast of the United States. Research on ENSO events has improved long range climate predictions, affording the potential to reduce the damage and economic cost of these weather patterns. Here, using the Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS), we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states (Neutral, El Niño, La Niña, and strong El Niño) on water resources in the conterminous United States. The simulations show that La Niña conditions increase water yield across much of the country. We find that water yield increases during El Niño years across the south while declining in much of the rest of the country. However, under strong El Niño conditions, regional water yields are much higher than Neutral, especially along the West Coast. Strong El Niño is not simply an amplification of El Niño; it leads to strikingly different patterns of water resource response.     

Recent Ogallala Aquifer Region Drought Conditions as Observed by Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies from GRACE

Recent severe drought events have occurred over the Ogallala Aquifer region (OAR) during the period 2011–2015, creating significant impacts on water resources and their use in regional environmental and economic systems. The changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS), as indicated by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), reveals a detailed picture of the temporal and spatial evolution of drought events. The observations by GRACE indicate the worst drought conditions occurred in September 2012, with an average TWS deficit of ~8 cm in the northern OAR and ~11 cm in the southern OAR, consistent with precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. Comparing changes in TWS with precipitation shows the TWS changes can be predominantly attributable to variations in precipitation. Power spectrum and squared wavelet coherence analysis indicate a significant correlation between TWS change and the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, and the influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures on TWS change is much stronger in the southern OAR than the northern OAR. The results of this study illustrate the value of GRACE in not just the diagnosis of significant drought events, but also in possibly improving the predictive power of remote signals that are impacted by nonregional climatic events (El Nino), ultimately leading to improved water resource management applications on a regional scale. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

IMPACTS OF CALIFORNIA'S CLIMATIC REGIMES AND COASTAL LAND USE CHANGE ON STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC‐HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate stream flow for a 14‐year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14‐year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino‐Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two stream flow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing stream flow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14‐year distributions of stream flow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14‐year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m³/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m³/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern.     

CLIMATE SCIENCE AND DROUGHT PLANNING: THE ARIZONA EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.     

COLUMBIA RIVER FLOW AND DROUGHT SINCE 17501

ABSTRACT: A network of 32 drought sensitive tree‐ring chronologies is used to reconstruct mean water year flow on the Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon, since 1750. The reconstruction explains 30 percent of the variability in mean water year (October to September) flow, with a large portion of unexplained variance caused by underestimates of the most severe low flow events. Residual statistics from the tree‐ring reconstruction, as well as an identically specified instrumental reconstruction, exhibit positive trends over time. This finding suggests that the relationship between drought and streamflow has changed over time, supporting results from hydrologic models, which suggest that changes in land cover over the 20th Century have had measurable impacts on runoff production. Low pass filtering the flow record suggests that persistent low flows during the 1840s were probably the most severe of the past 250 years, but that flows during the 1930s were nearly as extreme. The period from 1950 to 1987 is anomalous in the context of this record for having no notable multiyear drought events. A comparison of the flow reconstruction to paleorecords of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) support a strong 20th Century link between large scale circulation and streamflow, but suggests that this link is very weak prior to 1900.     

FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.