Measuring environmental degradation by using principal component analysis

The objective of the paper is to measure environmental degradation on the basis of some selected indicators by the application of a simple multivariate technique known as Principal Component Analysis. For this purpose the study considered six variables, namely, GDP per capita, fuel consumption, total fertility rate, water supply, sanitation, and electricity. However, because of unavailability of data, the variables such as technology relating to environment, waste disposal, air pollution, women/gender issues relating to environment, corruption, democracy etc. could not be considered. The results show that principal components explain about 62% of the variations in the level of environmental degradation. The variables like GDP per capita, fuel consumption, water supply and electricity played a major role in classifying the countries in terms of environmental degradation compared to the variables, sanitation and total fertility rate. The findings show that countries which have high GDP per capita, low fuel consumption, higher percentage of people having access to water supply and sanitation as well as electricity ranked higher in terms of environmental quality despite high fertility rate as shown by the spectacular example of Saudi Arabia. By contrast, those countries which have low percentage of population having access to safe water and sanitation as well as electricity, high fuel consumption and high fertility were ranked lower in terms of environmental quality despite high per capita income, as shown by the example of Angola which is placed in lowest position among the 51 selected countries. The results also show that correlation between poverty and environmental degradation is particularly acute in African countries where high population growth is acting as an exacerbating factor. The study concluded that high fertility has much impact on environmental degradation in case of poorer countries than in case of rich countries.

The impact of economic,social, and political globalization and democracy on life expectancy in low-income countries: are sustainable development goals contradictory?

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals announced by the United Nations are important guides for the development processes of developing countries. However, achieving all of these goals is only possible if the goals are consistent with each other. It has been observed in the literature that possible contradictions between these goals are ignored. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate whether two sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the UN are contradictory or supporting each other in low-income countries. These SDGs are “Good Health and Well-Being” (SDG3) and “Partnerships for the Goals” (SDG17). For this purpose, the role of globalization and democracy in life expectancy is empirically investigated in 16 low-income countries over the period 1970–2017. While globalization has been used as an indicator of the partnership between countries, democracy has been used as an indicator of accountability and cooperation between governments and societies. According to estimations of the continuous-updated fully modified (CUP-FM) and bias-adjusted ordinary least squares (BA-OLS), globalization and its subcomponents such as economic, social, and political globalization affect life expectancy positively. Democracy also increases life expectancy in those countries. The GDP per capita is also used as a control variable. Our results show that a higher level of per capita income is positively associated with higher levels of life expectancy. In conclusion, no contradiction was found between SDG3 and SDG17 in those countries. Achieving a healthier society requires economic, social, and political integration between governments and societies.

     

中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。     

Nexus between corruption and regional Environmental Kuznets Curve: the case of South Asian countries

This study attempts to investigate the presence of a regional Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in selected South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka for the period 1984–2008. In addition, it also intends to inspect the impact of corruption on environmental degradation in this region. The Fixed Effect results confirm the existence of the regional EKC in these countries. Furthermore, the results indicate that corruption do affect environment in the manner that it delays the turning point in EKC. It is found that, in the presence of corruption, the per capita GDP at the turning point is USD 998, which is USD 128 higher from the value that would have been in the absence of corruption. Based on these results, the study suggests appropriate policy measures.     

Economic development,institutions, and biodiversity loss at the global scale

Current accelerating biodiversity loss is by many conservationists regarded as a result of economic development. Some economists agree on this viewpoint but argue it is valid at low income levels because of the need to secure a minimum living standard. On the other hand, economic development at higher income levels can instead mitigate biodiversity loss because of improved willingness and affordability to implement measures such as protected areas. This so-called environmental Kuznets relation is tested in this study by econometric analysis of cross-sectional data on a global scale. However, the results do not support this relation. Instead, we found a relation between economic and institutional development where economic development decreases biodiversity loss at a minimum level of institutional quality, i.e. minimum capacity to implement and secure property rights for the citizens. Our results thus question policies that neglect institutional quality for reversing biodiversity loss. Further, it was found that biodiversity loss increases with invasive species, high average temperature and precipitation, and spatial autocorrelation.     

基于生态足迹的生态经济评价方法研究——以江苏省阜宁县为例

一个国家或地区的作物生产是通过轮作进行的，某些地区存在耕地的弃耕现象。Wackernagel生态足迹方法没有考虑复种的影响，耕地类生态足迹核算结果实际是播种面积，而生态承载力核算得到的是耕地面积，因此，二者不具有可比性，生态足迹盈余核算存在逻辑性错误。从理论角度采用复种指数修正耕地类生态足迹，使核算结果为耕地面积，增强了生态足迹和生态承载力的可比性。用改进的生态足迹核算方法，分析了阜宁县区域生态经济系统1995~2003年的生态供需状况及发展能力变动趋势，采用生态足迹盈余强度评价区域可持续发展能力。1995~2003年，阜宁县人均生态足迹从1.120 7 hm2增加到2.434 0 hm2，人均生态承载力变化较小，人均生态赤字从0.815 3 hm2增加为2.017 2 hm2，发展能力由1.226 5增加为3.140 7，生态足迹盈余强度由-1.226 5增强为-0.495 7 hm2。基于改进的生态足迹核算方法得到的发展能力和人均GDP之间的相关系数大于Wackernagel方法所得结果，表明改进的生态足迹方法能更好地反映区域社会经济状况。     

基于生态足迹的生态经济评价方法研究——以江苏省阜宁县为例

一个国家或地区的作物生产是通过轮作进行的,某些地区存在耕地的弃耕现象。Wackernagel生态足迹方法没有考虑复种的影响,耕地类生态足迹核算结果实际是播种面积,而生态承载力核算得到的是耕地面积,因此,二者不具有可比性,生态足迹盈余核算存在逻辑性错误。从理论角度采用复种指数修正耕地类生态足迹,使核算结果为耕地面积,增强了生态足迹和生态承载力的可比性。用改进的生态足迹核算方法,分析了阜宁县区域生态经济系统1995~2003年的生态供需状况及发展能力变动趋势,采用生态足迹盈余强度评价区域可持续发展能力。1995~2003年,阜宁县人均生态足迹从1.120 7 hm2增加到2.434 0 hm2,人均生态承载力变化较小,人均生态赤字从0.815 3 hm2增加为2.017 2 hm2,发展能力由1.226 5增加为3.140 7,生态足迹盈余强度由-1.226 5增强为-0.495 7 hm2。基于改进的生态足迹核算方法得到的发展能力和人均GDP之间的相关系数大于Wackernagel方法所得结果,表明改进的生态足迹方法能更好地反映区域社会经济状况。     

湖北省土地利用结构变化及其驱动机制分析

采用1996～2004年的统计资料,分析了湖北省土地利用结构变化,研究发现全省耕地大幅度减少,其次是未利用地和牧草地;林地则迅速增加,其次为居民点及独立工矿、园地、其他农用地、交通用地和水利设施用地。随后运用典型相关分析法,以湖北省76个县级行政单位为研究单元,进一步对湖北省土地利用结构变化的驱动因子进行了统计分析,定量诊断出各驱动因子对湖北省土地利用结构变化贡献作用的大小。结果显示,湖北省土地利用结构与社会经济因素之间关系可以用4对典型相关变量表示,耕地、居民点及工矿用地、林地、交通用地、水利设施用地的发展变化分别对应于不同的社会经济驱动因子。     

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change in semi-arid Borena,Ethiopia

Livestock production is very risky due to climate variability in semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data collected from 400 households in the Borena zone of the Oromia Region, we explored what drives adoption of agricultural practices that can decrease the vulnerability of agro-pastoralists to climate change. Households with more adaptive capacity adopted a larger number of practices. The households’ adaptive capacity was stronger when the quality of local institutions was high. However, adaptive capacity had less explanatory power in explaining adoption of adaptation options than household socio-economic characteristics, suggesting that aggregating information into one indicator of adaptive capacity for site-specific studies may not help to explain the adoption behaviour of households. Strong local institutions lead to changes in key household-level characteristics (like membership to community groups, years lived in a village, access to credit, financial savings and crop income) which positively affect adoption of agricultural practices. In addition, better local institutions were also positively related to adoption of livestock-related adaptation practices. Poor access to a tarmac road was positively related to intensification and diversification of crop production, whereas it was negatively related to the intensification of livestock production, an important activity for generating cash in the region. Our findings suggest that better local institutions lead to changes in household characteristics, which positively affect adoption of adaptation practices, suggesting that policies should aim to strengthen local institutions.     

中国省际间绿色发展福利测量与评价

在绿色发展理念下,对绿色发展福利进行测量和评价比传统的GDP评价更能体现发展的质量。本文基于生态绩效理论,将绿色发展福利增长速度推导为脱钩指数与GDP增长速度的乘积。首先以人类发展指数作为绿色发展福利的判别标准,根据脱钩指数理论,以数值0和0.1为界线,将2002—2014年中国31个省份的绿色发展福利水平划分为"负福利增长"、"绝对低福利增长"、"相对低福利增长"三类。其次,利用数据包络分析(DEA)方法及Malmquist指数测度兼顾期望产出(GDP)与非期望产出(生态足迹)的绿色经济增长,并对中国省际绿色经济增长效率进行分解,将绿色全要素生产率分为技术效率变动、技术变动、纯技术效率变动和规模效率变动,以探讨影响中国绿色发展"C"模式的关键因素。实证结果表明:中国大陆31个省份的脱钩指数均小于0.6(两个省份的脱钩指数小于0),处于低福利增长状态,但是整体上省际间脱钩指数与GDP增长速度呈现正相关关系,省际间人类发展指数的差异主要表现在公平的教育机会与收入分配差距两个方面。对中国大陆31个省份绿色经济增长速度的分解表明,绿色全要素生产率的提升主要得益于技术效率变动、纯技术效率变动、规模效率变动指数的提高,且每个时期三者的贡献率均在1左右波动。检验期间,北京、上海、广东、天津四个省份作为"创新者"共同推动产出朝着最优生产前沿面外移。最后,为了构筑中国绿色发展"C"模式,认为应该以绿色发展福利水平的提升为导向,在依据绿色全要素生产率提高绿色经济增长效率的同时,应注重教育公平与收入分配差距的缩减。同时,应积极发挥创新者省份绿色发展的示范效应,带动非创新者省份共同发展。     

Exposure,sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change: empirical research in China

The present research established a preliminary indicator assessment system satisfying Chinese characters for exposure, sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change. The 31 province-level administrative regions in mainland China were considered in our research. We developed three dimensions of indices related to climate change, including primary, secondary, and tertiary indicators. We chose all variables and indicators based on a literature review and used principal component analysis and the varimax method to develop a weighted assessment index system. Districts in central China scored higher on the overall exposure index than other sample districts, western China generally exhibited higher sensitivity, and eastern China exhibited comparatively higher social adaptive capacity than the other regions. This study also provides perspective for adaptation policies that all regions in China could adopt to determine development direction decision-making based on their specific conditions and diversified comparative advantages to enhance adaptive capacity in response to climate change.     

Uncovering the Connections Among Sustainability, Governance and GDP

This paper examines the connections among sustainability, governance and GDP, using the data from 123 countries. Sustainability is found to be related with GDP in two contradictory ways. On the one hand, growth in GDP strengthens a nation＇s ability to maintain favorable environmental conditions into the future. On the other hand, GDP growth is built on more consumption of natural resources, and therefore generates a larger ＂foot-print＂ on the Earth. Governance plays a key role in sustainable development. However, it is not helping to reduce our footprint on the Earth. In fact, good governance is linked to a larger footprint. This reflects our materialist value and human impulse. When a society prefers the comfort and wellbeing of human beings to the welfare of its environment, democratic governance might be used as an effective tool against nature.     

The effects of globalization on Ecological Footprints: an empirical analysis

Whether globalization is sustainable is a contested issue. The quantitative literature on the Maastricht Globalization Index (MGI) and the KOF index of globalization shows that globalization contributes positively to economic and human development, environmental performance, mortality, gender equality and physical integrity rights. However, globalization also drives within-country income inequality, especially in developing countries. Evidence on the effects of globalization on the ecological environment does not provide clear patterns; various dimensions of globalization have different effects on various pollutants. This article analyzes the statistical relationship between the most recent MGI (2012 edition) and the ecological dimension of sustainable development. The latter will be operationalized by considering four variants of the Ecological Footprint. The relation between globalization and sustainable development will be controlled for GDP per capita as a proxy for affluence and report the results for Pearson’s correlations and multivariate regressions for up to 171 countries. We conclude that the overall index of globalization significantly increases the Ecological Footprint of consumption, exports and imports. The decomposition of globalization into different domains reveals that apart from the political dimension, all dimensions drive human pressures and demands on the environment. Globalization needs to go into new directions if it is to make a contribution toward all aspects of sustainable development.     

Investigating the oil curse in OECD and Non-OECD oil-exporting economies using green measures of income

Empirical studies investigating the natural resource curse theory mostly employ cross-country and panel regression techniques subject to endogeneity bias. Also, most of these studies employ GDP in its aggregate or per-capita terms as the outcome variable in their analyses. However, the use of GDP measures of income for resource curse investigations may not portray the true incomes of resource-intensive economies. Standard national accounts treat natural resource rents as a positive contribution to income without adjusting for the value of depleted natural resource stock. This treatment often leads to a positive bias in the national income computations of resource-rich economies. Unlike previous studies, we test the robustness of the curse in the predominantly used measures of national income, GDP, by investigating the theme in genuine income measures of economic output as well. Also, the paper deviates from most empirical studies in the literature by using the Arellano–Bond difference GMM method in investigating the oil curse in OECD and Non-OECD oil-exporting economies. Additionally, we employ two alternative measures of resource intensity in our explorations; the share of oil rents in GDP and per-capita oil reserves. Our results provide evidence of the curse in Non-OECD countries employing aggregate and per-capita measures of genuine income.     

财政分权与环境治理——基于动态视角的理论和实证分析

基于动态视角,对财政分权与环境治理的关系进行理论分析,提出研究假说,并利用1997—2016年的省级面板数据,对两者的关系进行实证检验。理论研究认为:财政分权在不同的经济发展阶段对环境治理的影响不同。当经济发展水平较低时,财政分权对环境治理的影响以负向的替代效应为主,财政分权不利于环境治理;而当经济发展水平较高时,财政分权对环境治理的影响以正向的收入效应为主,财政分权有利于环境治理。实证研究表明:①在样本时期内,整体而言,我国的财政分权不利于环境治理。该结论在通过模型设定、指标选取以及内生性控制等检验后,仍然成立。②随着经济发展水平的不断提高,财政分权对环境治理的负向效应不断减弱。③面板门槛模型的结果表明,当人均GDP达到3.123万元时,财政分权对环境治理的影响才有可能出现拐点。若以环境污染治理投资总额和行政处罚案件数作为被解释变量时,人均GDP分别要达到4.379万元和6.276万元时,拐点才有可能出现。以上发现的政策启示在于:一方面,尽管现阶段我国的财政分权对环境治理存在负向影响,但是这种负向影响仅是阶段性的,不能因为这种阶段性特征,而否定财政分权制度本身;另一方面,由于我国大部分地区仍处在经济发展的中等收入阶段,为了缓解财政分权的负向效应,可能还需要中央政府进行适当的干预以消除地方政府在环境治理方面的扭曲。     

财政分权对中国环境污染影响程度的实证分析

财政分权体现了中央政府和地方政府间的财政权力分配关系,它可以通过支出分权度和收入分权度两个指标进行衡量。从理论上分析,大多数研究结论都认为财政分权与污染量排放存在负激励,但是缺乏相应的实证研究。本文利用1998年到2009年的省级面板数据,对中国财政分权与污染物排放规模之间的关系进行了实证分析。本文选取工业废气排放量、工业固体废弃物排放量、工业废水排放量和二氧化硫排放量作为衡量污染物排放规模的指标,选择支出分权度与收入分权度作为解释变量,选择人均GDP、人口密度、城市化水平、外商投资总额、工业化水平作为控制变量。本文还将所有省份按照地理位置划分为东部和中西部两组进行稳健性检验。研究结果表明:以支出分权度衡量的财政分权指标与污染物排放规模负相关,且实证结果具有稳健性,以收入分权度衡量的财政分权指标与污染物排放规模的关系从实证的角度来讲不确定。     

An exploration of the interaction between socio-economic productivity and water withdrawal

The term sustainability invites interest in the main factors that affect the deterioration of natural resources. Different hypotheses have been put forward concerning the relationship between water and its effect on different economic sectors. Several questions can be asked here, for example: Does a higher water withdrawal for one sector mean that this sector is adding more to the GDP or is it a sunk cost (it is the cost that should be ignored compared to the benefit of water withdrawal for an individual economic sector) compared with the benefits to the economy? Do social factors affect water withdrawal more than economic factors or are they both impacting equally? We aim to answer these questions and to shed light on different socio-economic factors that affect water withdrawal in different economic sectors. This study investigates, in depth, the interaction between humans and the environment and can be useful in monitoring the direct effect on water withdrawal from agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and on different national economic variables that act as an indicator for economic development and growth. We used simultaneous equation models in our analysis, both the three-stage least squares and the two-stage least squares to explore the relationships. For more credibility, we run the fixed and random effects of 2SLS. Our results showed the influence of trade openness and economic growth on water withdrawal for different economic sectors, and the effect of an increasing demand for water for non-agricultural purposes, which adds pressure on the agricultural sector and eventually may lead to rising food prices.     

On the possibility of sustainable development with less economic growth: a research note

The main purpose of this paper is to discuss whether it is possible to achieve human development without or with less economic growth. For this to happen, it is important that developed countries can maintain high levels of human development while reducing the scale of production and consumption so that developing countries can achieve greater economic growth. Using panel data from 118 countries aggregated in ten blocks of countries, we assess the influence of “growth” on “development”, as proxied by a transformed variable “Social Human Development Index” (SHDI), controlling for the influence of geo-economic factors. In particular, we analyse whether developed countries present a weaker statistical relation between GDP and the social dimension of HDI than their less developed counterparts. Results reveal that the GDP elasticity of SHDI is higher in blocks of countries where the concentration of developing countries occurs than in blocks dominated by the presence of developed countries. Thus, it is possible to envisage that a slowdown in economic activity in developed countries may occur without great sacrifice of human development, at least when it is measured by health and education components. We interpret the findings as meaning that at an aggregate level there are conditions for development to occur without or with less growth.     

草地生态系统人工干预对经济福利的影响——以黄河源区为例

为探讨草地生态系统人工干预对区域经济福利的影响，揭示其间的内在规律，选取草地围栏、畜棚建设、草地灭鼠和人工草地建设作为草地生态系统人工干预的重要指标，以人均GDP、农牧民人均收入、人均肉产品产量作为反映区域经济福利指标，并以黄河源区为研究案例，利用回归分析法和SPSS软件建立人工干预和经济福利指标之间的相互关系。结果表明：以畜牧经济为主导的黄河源区，草地围栏、人工草地、畜棚建设与人均GDP、农牧民人均收入、居民人均肉产量均具有较高相关性，草地生态系统人工必要干预对经济福利具有重要的影响；且人工草地、畜棚、围栏单位面积变化对人均GDP、人均收入、人均肉产量具有较高的敏感性，其敏感性依此递减；灭鼠面积除对人均牛羊肉产量具有弱相关外，对人均GDP、农牧民人均收入也具有较高的相关性和敏感性。〖     

Improved method of ecological footprint – Funing County ecological economic system assessments

This paper improves the ecological footprint method by regulating cropland area with cropping index. The results calculated by the improved method are the area of cropland that human needed, but not of cropping. This study analyzes the ecological supply/demand of Funing County in China with improved ecological footprint method. It suggested that ecological remainder per thousand U.S. dollar GDP is regarded as the indicator of regional sustainable development ability and pointed out that the stockbreeding is the keystone factor that affects the regional ecological footprint.