区域风险评价方法研究

基于定量风险评价的基本原理,提出一种区域风险评价方法。主要针对有多个重大危险源存在的区域,在对单个危险源进行风险评价的基础上,应用叠加原理得到描述该区域整体风险状况的定量评价结果。同时考虑了消防部门和医疗机构在事故应急救援中的积极作用,并将其量化为区域风险的补偿系数。通过实例验证了该方法的可行性,展示了该方法的应用效果。区域风险评价方法不仅能够反映区域风险的分布状况,而且对区域重大危险源的规划和布局具有较好的决策支持作用。     

地铁系统反恐应急预案编制指南研究

地铁系统已成为恐怖分子袭击的重要目标,为提高政府应对地铁系统突发恐怖袭击事件的应对和紧急处置能力,通过对我国各市地铁系统实际情况的调查和研究,根据对地铁典型恐怖袭击案例的剖析,详细阐述地铁系统反恐怖应急预案编制指南的思路、特点和重要作用,重点探讨对指南中的突发恐怖事件的分级分类和应急处置等方法,通过编制该指南的研究,为城市地铁系统反恐应急预案的编制提供指导性建议。     

TRANSIENT RESPONSE FUNCTIONS FOR CONJUNCTIVE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN,IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Increasing demands on western water are causing a mounting need for the conjunctive management of surface water and ground water resources. Under western water law, the senior water rights holder has priority over the junior water rights holder in times of water shortage. Water managers have been reluctant to conjunctively manage surface water and ground water resources because of the difficulty of quantification of the impacts to surface water resources from ground water stresses. Impacts from ground water use can take years to propagate through an aquifer system. Prediction of the degree of impact to surface water resources over time and the spatial distribution of impacts is very difficult. Response functions mathematically describe the relationship between a unit ground water stress applied at a specific location and stream depletion or aquifer water level change elsewhere in the system. Response functions can be used to help quantify the spatial and temporal impacts to surface water resources caused by ground water pumping. This paper describes the theory of response functions and presents an application of transient response functions in the Snake River Plain, Idaho. Transient response functions can be used to facilitate the conjunctive management of surface and ground water not only in the eastern Snake River Plain basin, but also in similar basins throughout the western United States.     

重大危险源辨识与监控是企业建立事故应急体系的基础

本文简要介绍了重大工业事故预防控制体系要素和国家法律、法规与政策对企业重大危险源监控与应急体系建设的要求,论述了重大危险源辨识、监控是企业建立事故应急体系和重大事故预防控制体系的基础和前提,对企业重大危险源监控和应急预案编制要求提出了建议.     

Class: an Essential Aspect of Watershed Planning

A study of a watershed planning process in the Cache River Watershed in southern Illinois revealed that class divisions, based on property ownership, underlay key conflicts over land use and decision-making relevant to resource use. A class analysis of the region indicates that the planning process served to endorse and solidify the locally-dominant theory that landownership confers the right to govern. This obscured the class differences between large full-time farmers and small-holders whose livelihood depends on non-farm labor. These two groups generally opposed one another regarding wetland drainage. Their common identity as “property owner” consolidated the power wielded locally by large farmers. It also provided an instrument – the planning document – for state and federal government agencies to enhance their power and to bring resources to the region. The planning process simultaneously ameliorated conflicts between government agencies and the large farmers, while enhancing the agencies’ capacity to reclaim wetlands. In this contradictory manner, the plan promoted the environmental aims of many small-holders, and simultaneously disempowered them as actors in the region’s political economy. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Improving Operational Planning and Management of National Parks in Turkey: A Case Study

The purpose this study was to improve operational planning and management of national parks in Turkey to balance conservation use and sustainable management. Souksu National Park (SNP) was chosen as the study area. The data were obtained from interviews of 182 visitor groups (in total, 819 people) and analyzed using correlation, factor, discriminant, and regression analyses. It was found that the most important factors affecting operational planning and management of SNP are (1) travel cost, (2) visitor welfare level, (3) intensity of use, (4) size of visitor group, (5) type of recreational demand. The main source of visitors to SNP is from a zone within a 0–90-km radius. This region comprised 53.85% of total visitors to the park. The capital of Turkey (Ankara) is the most important source of visitors from within this zone. The optimum activity mix in SNP is also determined. Picnicking, viewing the scenery, and nature walks or trekking comprised the main uses of the park. It is anticipated that these findings will help to improve operational planning and sustainable management of the national park and the environment.     

Sustainable pattern analysis of a publicly owned Material Recovery Facility in a fast-growing urban setting under uncertainty

Sustainable development goals are achievable through the installation of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in certain solid waste management systems, especially those in rapidly expanding multi-district urban areas. MRFs are a cost-effective alternative when curbside recycling does not demonstrate long-term success. Previous capacity planning uses mixed integer programming optimization for the urban center of the city of San Antonio, Texas to establish that a publicly owned material recovery facility is preferable to a privatized facility. As a companion study, this analysis demonstrates that a MRF alleviates economic, political, and social pressures facing solid waste management under uncertainty. It explores the impact of uncertainty in decision alternatives in an urban environmental system. From this unique angle, waste generation, incidence of recyclables in the waste stream, routing distances, recycling participation, and other planning components are taken as intervals to expand upon previous deterministic integer-programming models. The information incorporated into the optimization objectives includes economic impacts for recycling income and cost components in waste management. The constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening restrictions. Due to the fragmented data set, a grey integer programming modeling approach quantifies the consequences of inexact information as it propagates through the final solutions in the optimization process. The grey algorithm screens optimal shipping patterns and an ideal MRF location and capacity. Two case settings compare MRF selection policies where optimal solutions exemplify the value of grey programming in the context of integrated solid waste management.     

西部复杂性地貌地区消防规划评估与建设研究 ——以凉山州区域为例

城市消防规划作为城市消防安全体系建设的重要依据,是助力城市现代化进程、推动城市综合安全智慧网络形成的重要基石。通过对凉山州各地貌地区消防现状存在问题的分析,结合凉山州的实际情况及全州建设发展多种形式综合性消防应急救援队伍的需要,提出了能满足全州消防安全需求且能够有效指导城市消防建设的相应对策。     

A spatially explicit backcasting approach for sustainable land-use planning

General backcasting as a decision support and planning method starts from desired future states and simulates developments backwards until reaching the present state. Development pathways that reveal steps to be taken to reach a certain future state, and milestones that serve as interim goals, are created during the process. Backcasting has hitherto only been applied in workshops or as a theoretical framework and no spatially explicit backcasting model has previously been established. This paper presents the development of a spatially explicit backcasting model. The proposed model first creates a future scenario utilizing an agent-based model and then simulates backwards. It is implemented using the programming language Python. The model has been applied to a case study for sustainable land-use planning in Salzburg, Austria. The results of the model run show a successful backcasting of land-use classes from a future state back to the present, in 10 year time steps.     

浅谈GIS在城市环境总体规划中的应用与探索

环保大数据结合地理信息系统是实现城市环境总体规划空间化、促使环境管理转型的重要举措。城市环境总体规划是我国环境规划制度中的一项尝试,实现环境管理由末端治理转向前端控制的基础性、空间性、综合性、战略性规划。本文在分析GIS在环境规划领域的技术优势基础上,提出城市环境总体规划中生态保护红线划定、环境(生态)功能区划、要素空间管控、环境风险防控、产业布局调控五大技术需求。总结GIS在城市环境总体规划中的五大技术应用:空间基础数据处理与评价模型应用、标准化制图与空间信息表达、信息系统管理平台建设、专业软件数据转换、衔接"多规合一"平台等。最后,提出GIS支持下的环境功能区划和生态保护红线评估等功能模块开发、城环总规信息系统上的环境影响评价模块开发以及环境详细规划控制图则编制方法等探索方向。