Rainfall variability and household coping strategies in northern Tanzania: a motivation for district-level strategies

Climate variability is an important stress factor for rural livelihoods in most developing countries where households have been adapting to environmental shocks for decades. Climate change results in increased variability and poses new challenges for rural livelihoods, as well as for policymakers in adjusting policies to changing conditions. This paper examines the potential relationships between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2,700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. The results show that rainfall patterns in the region are very location-specific and that the distribution of household reported harvest shocks differs significantly between districts and correspond to the observed variability in local climate patterns. Coping strategies are focused on spreading risks and include reduced consumption, casual employment, new crops, external support and the selling of assets. There are no large differences in applied coping strategies across the region, but district-level data demonstrate how local strategies differ between localities within the districts. The results emphasize that in order to target rural policies and make them efficient, it is important to take into account the local conditions that rural households face when experiencing climate-related shocks. Finally, shocks reported by households appear to correspond well with observed variability in rainfall patterns.     

Shocks and coping strategies of coastal communities in war–conflict-affected areas of the north and east of Sri Lanka

A quantitative survey of 1,377 households in three war-affected coastal districts of Jaffna, Mannar and Trincomalee in the north and east of Sri Lanka shows that inflation or price hikes, specially fuel, and natural disasters such as floods and droughts are highlighted as the shocks with the biggest impacts on fisher and non-fisher households. We hypothesise that the pattern/severity of households’ coping strategies to face these shocks depends on a set of household characteristics: livelihood diversity, asset ownership, level of education and the ability to borrow. Livelihood diversity, asset ownership and borrowings correlate significantly with the severity of coping strategies adopted by households for both fisher and non-fisher households. Education and livelihood diversification does not show a significant correlation for fisher households although it significantly affects livelihood diversification of both types of households.     

互助资金政策对贫困村劳动力流动的影响--基于5省10县准实验研究的DID分析

促进贫困地区农村劳动力向外流动是提高农民收入、缩小城乡差距的关键。在农村劳动力尤其是贫困劳动力外流增速放缓的背景下,文章从信贷约束缓解的视角出发,基于5省10县互助资金监测的准实验研究项目,借助双重差分(DID)模型,利用1059个微观农户的三期面板数据,从家庭层面考察了互助资金政策对贫困村劳动力流动的影响,并从缓解流动性约束、资本替代劳动和提供隐性担保三个角度对作用机制进行了分析和检验。研究结果表明:①互助资金政策的实施对贫困村劳动力外流具有显著的促进作用。安慰剂检验和稳健性检验进一步加强了研究结论的可靠性。②缓解农户的流动性约束是互助资金促进贫困村劳动力外流的路径之一,通过向农户提供借款,使农户尤其是贫困农户获得了满足迁移成本的金融资源,从而促进了向外流动。③资本替代劳动的机制作用并不明显,这可能与互助资金借款额度有限有关,无法满足农户机械化的资本需求。④为农户家庭面临的收入风险提供隐性担保也是互助资金促进贫困村劳动力外流的路径之一,通过为农户提供资金融通渠道,确保农户即使在外流失败的情况下能够通过向互助资金借贷平滑消费和缓解风险冲击。研究结论为探索农村金融供给能否成为进一步促进剩余贫困劳动力转移的契机提供了有理论价值和可操作的视角,未来应继续坚持农村金融改革的步伐,加快金融产品和金融工具创新,不断提高贫困农户的信贷可得性和可持续性收益。     

多重压力下重点生态功能区农户的生计适应性研究——以甘南黄河水源补给区为例

重点生态功能区对维护国家和区域生态安全至关重要,农户作为该区最主要的经济活动主体和最基本的生态环境保护单元,其对生计压力的适应性直接关系到重点生态功能区主体功能的发挥。本文以地处青藏高原东缘的甘南黄河水源补给区为例,基于入户调查数据,分析了农户的生计压力、适应能力及适应策略,并利用多元logistic回归模型探明了影响适应策略选择的关键因素。结果表明:①甘南黄河水源补给区有近90%的农户遭受多重生计压力的冲击,其中,“自然+社会+经济”型压力是该区农户面临最多的生计压力组合。②经济示范区农户的适应能力最高,恢复治理区次之,重点保护区最低;遭受“自然+社会”型压力冲击的农户适应能力最高,遭受“自然+社会+经济+政策”型压力冲击的农户适应能力最低。③甘南黄河水源补给区有87.45%的农户采取多种适应策略来应对生计压力,其中,选择“扩张+援助+收缩”型适应策略的农户占比最大。④自然资本、人力资本、社会资本、自然压力的严重程度和生计压力的多样化程度是影响适应策略的关键因素。鉴于此,政府应加大生态环境保护力度,拓宽农户增收渠道,建立多元化信贷机制,加强偏远地区基础设施建设,完善社会保障体系,提高农户在面临生计压力时的适应能力,促进生计可持续发展。     

生态脆弱区自然资本可持续利用及驱动机制--以宁夏为例

自然资本的分类测度和分区管理是可持续发展领域的核心议题。文章基于改进后的三维生态足迹模型,分析了2008—2017年宁夏及其各地级市自然资本利用的时空演变特征,并运用偏最小二乘法揭示了自然资本利用演变的驱动机制,旨在为生态脆弱区自然资本的可持续利用、社会经济的协调发展和生态文明建设提供参考。结果显示:①10年来宁夏人均生态足迹以年均5.01%的速率从3.146 hm²增至4.564 hm²,人均生态承载力相对稳定,人均生态赤字由2.462 hm²扩大至3.839 hm²,自然资本的供需矛盾愈加尖锐;市域尺度上,除固原市外其他各市生态赤字明显,总体上呈由南向北递增趋势。②足迹深度和足迹广度表明流量资本已无法满足需求,对存量资本的消耗成为社会经济发展的常态;市域尺度上,足迹深度呈“北高南低”的分布特征,而足迹广度的空间分布与其相反,二者存在显著的地域互补性。③从地类组分构成来看,林地、草地和水域是全区存量资本消耗的主要方式,耕地尚处于流量资本占用状态,建筑用地已过渡为存量资本;市域尺度上,自然资本利用的可持续性呈“南强北弱”格局,各地类间自然资本利用差异显著。④偏最小二乘回归模型揭示能源消耗、社会消费、经济发展和资源禀赋条件是影响宁夏自然资本利用的显著因素,而人口规模、对外贸易、生态建设、科技进步和产业结构演化对自然资本利用的影响程度较轻;市域尺度上自然资本利用的驱动力差异显著。最后,基于自然资本利用空间分异特征,从供需视角提出了自然资本可持续利用的对策建议和优化路径。     

农户对生物质能源产业参与意愿实证分析——以湖北省为例

生物质能源一直是人类赖以生存的重要能源,它是仅次于煤炭、石油和天然气而居于世界能源消费总量第四位的能源,在整个能源系统中占有重要地位。生物质能源产业的发展不仅仅需要产品生产企业、政府相关机构的参与,微观个体农户同样扮演着至关重要的角色。农户对生物质能源产业的态度和行为,会对政府和生产者的行为选择产生深刻影响。以湖北农户对生物质能源产业的参与意愿的调查为例,运用因子分析法,对农户对生物质能源产业参与意愿和参与行为的影响因素进行分析。分析结果表明：预期收益、年均纯收入、环保意识、文化程度、配套设备生产情况、产品技术成熟度、相关政策支持、商品能源使用率、当地生物质资源量9个因素会影响农户参与意愿。提出了相应的建议：一是提高农户对生物质能源的预期收益和农户收入水平;二是从根本上提高农户综合素质,增强环境保护意识;三是完善生物质能源产业技术、政策支撑体系,合理开发利用生物质资源     

生计资本与生计策略关系研究——以张掖市甘州区为例

农民的生计安全与质量问题是当今中国农村的核心问题,稳定的生计可以使有关的政策协调发展、消除贫困并可持续地利用资源.本文采用可持续生计框架为研究基础,农户的生计资产为框架核心,通过建立可持续生计评价指标体系,对农户的生计资产状况和由此决定的资产配置方式--生计策略及二者之间的关系进行初步的研究探讨.结果表明:对张掖市甘州区农户而盲,物质资本的值最高(其值为0.609),人力资本的数值相对较高(其值为0.516),社会资本次之(其值为0.354),金融资本和自然资本的数值相对较低(其值分别为0.286和0.241).在其他条件不变的情况下,自然资本每增加一个单位,将引起农户选择以非农为主与以农业为主生计策略的发生比缩小0.119倍;当其他解释变量不变时,金融资本每增加一个单位,将引起农户选择以非农为主与以农业为主生计策略的发生比扩大9.698倍.所以要想实现农户生计多样化,加强农户抵御风险的能力,政府就必须加强对其资金、技术等方面的支持,使其有能力和资本储备从农业生产转向二、三产业,从而促使农户生计水平得以提高.     

农村社区小型水利设施合作供给意愿的实证

本文基于社会资本视角,在现有文献的基础上,将社会资本分为社会网络、社会信任、社会声望、社会参与四个维度,利用6省区600户农户的调查资料,运用logistic模型分析了农户参与小型水利设施合作供给意愿的影响因素。研究结果表明,社会资本对农户小型水利设施合作供给意愿有积极作用。社会资本不同维度中,除社会声望对合作意愿影响不显著外,社会网络、社会信任、社会参与对农户参与小型水利设施合作供给意愿均有显著正向影响,说明农户的合作供给实现应该充分利用社会资本。此外,农户参与小型水利设施合作供给意愿还受其他因素影响,其中合作认知和灌溉面积对农户参与小型水利设施供给的合作意愿有显著正向影响,而家庭收入、是否偷水和用水纠纷对合作意愿有显著负向影响。提出应通过培育农户社会资本、规范社区用水环境、提高合作认知程度等措施,提高农户参与农村社区小型水利设施合作供给积极性的政策建议。     

城市中农村迁移家庭的劳动供给行为分析

城市中农村迁移家庭的劳动供给行为一直是发展经济学研究的主题之一.本文建立了中国城市中农村迁移家庭的劳动参与模型和工作时间模型,用于分析城市中农村迁移家庭的劳动供给行为.研究结果表明:农村迁移劳动力劳动参与率高,工作时间长,主要在非正规部门就业;农村迁移家庭中女性和男性的教育收益率分别为3.71％和4.97％,且随着受教育年限的提高,男性工作时间将明显增加;身体健康不仅有助于女性劳动参与率的提高,而且有助于女性和男性工作时间的增加;随着年龄的增长,个体倾向于减少工作时间;但随着经验的增长,个体倾向于增加工作时间;女性工作时间的工资弹性和收入弹性分别为-0.261 3和-0.073 3,而男性工作时间的工资弹性为-0.3443,说明女性和男性的工作时间曲线均向右下倾斜;女性劳动参与的工资弹性为0.539 5,远高于工作时间的工资弹性.因此,政府通过发展农村教育和医疗服务,适当提高城市最低工资标准,将能够有效地促进农村迁移家庭就业水平和收入水平的提高.     

农地整理对农户农地资本投入影响研究 ——基于农地整理区域农户问卷调查的实证分析

从理论和实证的角度,分析农地整理对农户农地资本投入行为的影响。首先通过农地整理对农户农业生产投入行为的影响机理分析提出了理论假设,然后以3个县（市、区）的185份农地整理区域农户抽样调查数据,构建多元线性回归模型进行农地整理对农户农地资本投入（流动资本和农业机械投入）的影响分析。结果表明：（1）农地整理对农户私人投入同时具有挤入效应和挤出效应,表现在农地整理对农户私人不同要素投入的影响存在差异：与公共投入呈互补关系的私人投入提高,与公共投入呈替代关系的私人投入降低;（2）各因素在流动资本投入和农业机械投入之间的影响程度各不相同;（3）各因素在流动资本投入和农业机械投入内部的作用大小有明显差异;（4）农地整理这一公共投入对农户私人投入的挤出效应大于挤入效应,而挤出效应主要体现在农户的流动资本投入上。调查亦发现农地整理对农户农业机械投入的现状影响并不显著,对其投入意愿有明显影响     

资本禀赋与农户耕地保护支付意愿关系 ——基于城镇近郊区与城镇远郊区的对比分析

在对资本禀赋与农户耕地保护支付意愿的关系进行文献综述并提出研究假说的基础上，基于武汉“1+8”城市圈483份农户调研数据，利用order logistic模型，实证检验两者之间的关系。结果表明：（1）有33.5%的农户愿意每月支付20元左右资金来保护耕地，整体水平偏低；城镇远郊区农户有更强的耕地生计依赖，相比于城镇近郊区，支付意愿更强。（2）从各个模型中的显著型变量来看，除经济资本中的家庭年总收入外，其余资本禀赋对耕地保护支付意愿存在显著正向影响。（3）整体上，相比于经济和文化资本，社会资本对农户耕地保护支付意愿的影响效应更强。（4）城镇近郊区和城镇远郊区农户资本禀赋对耕地保护支付意愿影响存在显著差异：相比城镇远郊区，除与亲朋邻里关系状况外，城镇近郊区其余农户资本影响效应较大；进一步分析发现，经济资本中的家庭年总收入、家庭劳动力总人数以及社会资本中在群众会议中的发言情况只对城镇近郊区农户影响效应显著；对村集体信任程度等村庄型和与亲朋邻里关系程度邻里型社会资本都对城镇远郊区农户耕地保护支付意愿产生重要影响，而城镇近郊区仅是与亲朋邻里关系程度邻里型社会资本产生效应。应积极组建各类农村合作经济组织，提升农户储蓄水平；大力发展农村教育，尤其是职业教育和继续教育；鼓励农民积极参与农村社会集体活动组织以加强农户之间、农户与村干部之间的交流；尤其加强城镇远郊区农村集体组织建设等来加强农户资本禀赋积累；进一步加强农户农业生产补贴；以此增强农户耕地保护支付意愿，促进更好的保护耕地。     

农地整理对农户农地固定资本投入的影响研究

农地整理是政府农村公共投入的一种,农户的农地固定资本投入是农户的私人投资,研究农地整理对农户农地固定资本投入的投入效应将为农地整理的有效实施和促进农业机械化提供理论依据。在理论分析的基础上,基于农户调查数据,分别运用Tobit和Logit模型,分析了农地整理变量对农户农地固定资本投入的现状和意愿的影响。研究结果表明:农户对农地整理的满意程度对农户农地固定资本投入有正向影响;农户参与农地整理的意愿对农户农地固定资本投入意愿有正向作用;农地整理对农户农地固定资本投入的意愿比农户农地固定资本投入现状影响更为明显。因此,需要提高农地整理的质量,确保农地整理的实施;应该完善农户参与农地整理的机制,提高农户参与农地整理项目的意识和程度,充分保障农民权益;在农地整理项目实施的基础上,应该进一步克服农业机械化的障碍,从而推动农户发展农业机械化。     

Agricultural livelihood transition in the southern Yucatán region: diverging paths and their accompanying land changes

Land change science has demonstrated that rural livelihoods around the world both drive and reflect changing environmental regimes and political economic/structural transformations. This article explores the relationship between increasingly globalized rural livelihoods and in-place land change, assessing results from social surveys of smallholding households in the southern Yucatán region. We examine evidence for a transition in agricultural livelihood strategies as smallholders adjust to changing political economic and institutional conditions, and link these transitioning strategies to land use changes. Based on household surveys in 1997 and 2003, we comparatively assess both changes in the selection of livelihood strategies and in the land use and cover impacts of those strategies. Our results indicate that although impacts of given strategies have changed little over this period, there are increasing proportions of households pursuing two divergent adjustment paths—one of agricultural withdrawal and one of agricultural intensification and commercialization. We investigate what sociodemographic characteristics differentiate the groups of households following distinct livelihood strategies. Our findings point to the possibility of simultaneous and contradictory land change outcomes as smallholders adjust in different ways to their intensified incorporation into global economies.     

The disappearing sustainability triangle: community level considerations

This article challenges the application of the sustainability triangle to conceptualise sustainable development by looking at how weak sustainability can be obtained via the reinforcing increase in social capital and natural capital. Sustainable development is often visualised as a triangle consisting of social, environmental, and economic aspects. Would it be possible to conceive a flattened system, with diminishing economic resources or without refilling financial resources? The possibility involves mutual reinforcement between social capital and natural capital. The consideration of the diminishing economic dimension relates to the concept of development without economic growth, such as degrowth, zero-growth, and sustainable growth, that has been revived in the face of the recent economic crisis. Several countries have imposed extreme budget cuts in development collaboration and in other government expenditures. When the economic resource is not at a satisfactory level, can we rely on the reinforcement between social and environmental aspects for sustainability? Although it is not new to acknowledge the contribution of social capital to environmental conservation, research has long ignored the reinforcing relationship between environmental and social dimensions. This article provides a prototype model to demonstrate how social capital and natural capital can reinforce each other. The prototype is studied and verified at the community level using a comparative method. This article concludes with principles and practices that may encourage sustainability with merely the reinforcement between social capital and natural capital.     

环境资源配置低效率及自然资本"富聚"现象剖析

根据技术效率、经济效率、自然效率、社会效率之间的关系，探讨了四个效率背离所导致的资源配置效率丧失以及由此引发的社会福利损失问题。在分析价格信号在资源配置过程中的作用的基础上，探讨了市场失效和价格背离现象。进一步指出了中国经济转型时期存在着自然资本富聚现象，并进一步分析其根源。包括：政府有效干预不足、现行经济增长方式和经济效率实现以对自然资本的低成本占用、机会导向型的资源配置方式、资本的价值取向、对经济财富以及单一行为人的效率追逐、产权缺位等。强调需要强化环境管理的公共管理属性，并对环境资源的权益主体的权利、责任和利益进行有效的界定和实施，通过制度和政策变革，干预和规范市场运作，促进资源的高效和公平配置。     

生计资本对甘南高原农牧民生计活动的影响

甘南高原是典型的生态环境脆弱区,农牧民采取的不合理生计活动已成为该区生态环境退化的主要因素,目前亟需塑建可持续生计方式.本文采用参与性农户评估方法对甘南高原115户农牧民家庭进行了调查,基于农户调查资料,分析了甘南高原纯牧区、半农半牧区和农区农户的生计资本现状、生计活动特点.阐释了生计资本对生计活动的影响.研究结果表明:①纯牧区农户的生计资本总值最高、半农半牧区次之、农区最低.且纯牧区农户缺乏金融资本、半农半牧区农户缺乏物质资本、农区农户缺乏自然资本:②农区农户的生计活动多样化指数最高、半农半牧区次之、纯牧区最低,农区外出打工和从事非农活动的农户比例远高于半农半牧区和纯牧区;③农户的生计资本影响着生计活动的选择,自然资本缺乏迫使农户寻求其他谋生方式,但受教育程度低、物质资本与金融资本缺乏以及封闭而狭窄的亲缘与地缘关系限制了农户生计多样化.最后提出了提高农牧民生计资本存量、塑建可持续生计方式的政策建议.     

Agricultural productivity and environmental insecurity in the Usangu plain, Tanzania: policy implications for sustainability of agriculture

Sustainable agricultural development is a necessity for sustainable economic growth and social development in Africa. Sustainable agriculture largely depends on how effective natural and environmental resources are managed and utilized; it also depends on the security of continuous access to such resources. This research was aimed to look into trends in agricultural productivity, examine the persistence of the environmental insecurity, analyze the relationship between the two, and explore their links to the national development policies. The results are discussed in the context of relevance to national development policies and their implications on the sustainability of agriculture and rural livelihoods security. Literature survey, records collection from the stakeholders, village level participatory assessments (PAs), observations and questionnaire survey were tools used for data collection. The study shows significant (P < 0.01) declines in cereal crop yields, cattle milk yield and cattle calving rate, and increasing cattle mortality rate. Elements of environmental insecurity were found to account for decline in agricultural productivity; significant (P < 0.01) proportion (68%), of 266 households interviewed, reported land resources deterioration, declining soil fertility, and increasing drought frequencies as the causes of their low productivity. Declined fertilizer consumption and increasing variability in rainfall amount significantly (P < 0.01) accounted for 59% and 39%, respectively, of the variations observed in total annual production of rice and maize, which are major cereals in the study area. This study recommends measures to improve soil productivity such as improved fertilizer application and use of organic manures along with mineral fertilizers for maintaining soil productivity; education of farmers on sustainable use and management of land resources; and pro-poor rural policies in agricultural development and environmental governance. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

绿色经济新理念及中国开展绿色经济研究的思考

联合国里约20周年世界峰会的重要内容之一是倡导绿色经济。绿色经济的概念最早在1989年由英国环境经济学家Pearce提出,但现在的绿色经济却具有全新的意义。本文基于参加联合国有关绿色新政和绿色经济的政策咨询和研究报告,论述了绿色经济的基本背景、三重效益、研究模型以及绿色经济与生活质量的关系,对如何开展中国绿色经济研究进行探讨。首先,文章认为在深入探讨绿色经济前,需要了解当前发展绿色经济的基本背景,明确为什么要发展绿色经济、什么才是我们所需要的绿色经济,以及怎样促进绿色经济发展三个基本问题。其二,绿色经济与褐色经济的情景模拟表明,绿色经济发展模式具有更好的三重底线效益。联合国的T-21模型对过去40年(1970-2010)及未来40年(2010-2050)进行了绿色情景与褐色情景两种模拟,认为在自然资本的环境收益方面,绿色经济发展情景下自然资本的退化得到了基本遏制,而褐色经济发展情景下自然资本的退化会进一步增强;在物质资本的经济收益方面,绿色经济发展情景下,2020年以前经济增长率(2.5%)会低于褐色经济(3%),但从长期平均增长率看绿色经济发展模式(2.5%)可以带来比褐色经济发展模式(2%)更好的经济增长;在人力资本的社会效益方面,在2030年以前绿色经济发展情景下就业机会有小幅减少,但长期来看,绿色经济能够创造与褐色经济同样多的就业机会,甚至可以有小幅的增加(0.6%)。其三,绿色经济研究模型表明,绿色经济投资于自然资本可以实现所需要的经济社会发展与自然资本消耗的脱钩。绿色经济假说是:将资金投资于提高资源能源效率与扩大自然资本两个方面,是否能够导致更好的经济社会发展。基于该理论假设,联合国等国际组织将自然资本引入生产函数,建立了Threshold-21模型,证明绿色经济即投资于自然资本可以实现所需要的经济社会发展与自然资本消耗的脱钩。其四,绿色经济发展模式不仅有利于经济增长,同时能够增加生活质量。绿色经济假说,强调了绿色投资对生活质量有正的影响。通过生态绩效模型、结构方程模型以及典型案例研究等三种方法进行分析,研究表明:减少自然资本消耗可以减少生态环境的治理成本和维护成本、维持与增加自然资本对人类的功能;可以提高自然资本的生产效率,用较少的自然资本投入达到社会稳定所需要的人造资本;可以提高人造资本的服务效率,用一定的物质存量为更多的人服务。其五,开展深化中国绿色经济理论与绿色发展模式的系统研究。联合国等国际组织倡导的绿色经济可以给我们发展中国的绿色经济带来新的启示,笔者认为对中国绿色经济理论与绿色发展模式开展深入和系统的研究,应该包括理论内涵、实证分析、发展情景、行动领域、政策体系等五个依次递进、前后照应的研究模块。     

Livelihood strategies,environmental dependency and rural poverty: the case of two villages in rural Mozambique

This article attempts to explore the nexus between rural households’ environmental dependency, poverty and livelihood strategies. Households’ income from each livelihood activities formed the basis for categorizing households according to livelihood strategies. The principal component analysis, agglomerative hierarchical and the k-means cluster analysis were employed to determine the four livelihood clusters and to assign households to the identified livelihood strategies. Households’ environmental dependency, poverty and asset holding were compared across the strategies, and the determinants of livelihood choice were analyzed using multinomial logit model. The results indicate the existence of marked differences in environmental dependency, rural poverty and asset endowments across the livelihood groups. Household’s total saving, access to credit, production implements, business cost, exposure to agricultural shock determined household’s access to a more remunerative livelihood strategy. Incomes from each livelihood activities for the identified livelihood strategies were analyzed, and their implications were also discussed.