稳健GM(1,1)模型及其预测应用

本文提出了稳健GM(1,1)灰色模型,并用该模型建立了山东省工业固体废物产生量数学模型,结果表明,稳健GM(1,1)模型比通常的GM(1,1)模型更具预测应用价值.     

典型大宗工业固体废物产生现状分析及产生量预测

针对大宗工业固体废物产生量大、历史堆存量多的问题,基于历史年份产废量和行业贡献度分析结果,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了 2021-2025年特定行业典型大宗工业固体废物产生量.结果表明,尾矿、粉煤灰、煤矸石、冶炼废渣、炉渣、脱硫石膏等6种典型大宗工业固体废物普遍集中产生于1～2个特定行业,且特定行业的贡献程度普遍超...     

等维灰数递补动态模型在生活垃圾产生量预测中的应用

本文探讨了等经今天为数递补GM（1,1） 模型在垃圾产生量长期预测中的具体应用,比较了该模型与普通二次拟合灰色要 预测精度及预测值的灰区间方面的判别,说明了等维灰数递补GM（1,1）模型在作长期预测时具有一定的优越性。     

火电厂大气污染物排放预测模型

根据大气污染物排放浓度变化特点,将无偏GM(1,1)模型与神经网络模型组合,并以矩阵型输入方式替代传统的数列型数据输入方式,得到改进型灰色神经网络模型,称为UGMN模型。接着,采用烟囱入口烟气自动监控系统(CEMS)数据,将模型运用于贵州省某电厂白天及夜间两段时间段内大气污染物排放浓度的模拟与预测。研究结果表明UGMN模型预测精度较好,可以应用于火电厂大气污染物排放浓度预测。     

基于改进型灰色神经网络组合模型的空气质量预测

基于空气质量数据不足及波动较大的情况,将灰色GM（1,1）模型与人工神经网络模型组合并改进,建立改进型灰色神经网络组合模型。利用天津市2001—2008年PM10、SO2和NO2年均值作为原始数据预测2009—2010年PM10、SO2和NO2的浓度以进行模型精度检验,最后利用该模型预测2011—2015年天津市空气质量状况。结果表明,与灰色GM（1,1）模型、传统灰色神经网络组合模型相比,所建立的改进型灰色神经网络组合模型相对模拟误差小,预测结果更为可靠,可以用于空气质量预测。     

GM(1,1)包络模型及其预测应用——2000年中国每亿元国民收入能源消费量预测

影响环境质量变化的因素是“灰色”的.如何“白化”一个国家或地区的环境质量及影响因素,定量分析不同因素对环境质量的影响作用,这是环境经济学研究主要内容之一.Commoner把“环境压力”作为环境质量概念,定义为每年排入环境的污染物数量,以反映环境质量退化的程度.胡鞍钢在Commoner方程基础上提出了“环境变迁曲线”,其主要参数为每亿元国民收入能源消费量.本文试运用近来应用广泛的GM(1,1)模式的建模思想,建立了预测中国每亿元国民收入能源消费量之GM(1,1)包络预测模型.     

运用灰色系统理论对城市环境噪声分析与预测

利用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度分析法,对影响佛山市禅城区区域环境噪声的影响因子进行定量分析,结果表明,影响佛山市禅城区区域环境噪声的第一位因素是机动车辆密度;同时建立了城市区域环境噪声的灰色GM（1,1）预测模型,短期预测精度很高,未来5年禅城区区域环境噪声呈平稳下降趋势.为规划防治城市区域环境噪声提供科学依据.     

徐州市道路交通噪声污染趋势预测与分析

根据道路交通现状与规划情况，通过分析，简化运用FHWA和灰色GM(1，1)模型，对徐州市2005年的道路交通噪声污染情况进行定量预测，并对两种模型的预测结果进行了分析和比较，为徐州市声环境质量保护目标的制定提供依据，也为其它城镇预测交通噪声提供方法和参考。     

运用灰色系统理论对城市环境噪声分析与预测

利用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度分析法,对影响佛山市禅城区区域环境噪声的影响因子进行定量分析,结果表明,影响佛山市禅城区区域环境噪声的第一位因素是机动车辆密度;同时建立了城市区域环境噪声的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,短期预测精度很高,未来5年禅城区区域环境噪声呈平稳下降趋势.为规划防治城市区域环境噪声提供科学依据.     

渤海湾海洋资源、生态和环境承载力评价

在海洋经济快速增长的同时,由于海域污染造成的海洋生态环境破坏等问题,严重制约了海洋资源、生态和环境的可持续发展.结合国内外海洋资源、生态和环境承载力研究方法,将人口、社会经济、海洋资源、生态和环境系统服务功能纳入一个综合系统,将海洋生态系统服务功能引入到承载力评价指标体系和研究方法中,构建了以系统动力学(SD)模型、状态空间评价模型、多目标规划( MOP)模型为主,以海洋生态系统服务功能价值评估、灰色预测模型GM(1,1)和曲线回归模型等为辅助手段的海洋资源-生态-环境承载力复合系统(以下简称复合系统),并选取渤海湾进行实证研究.通过复合系统在渤海湾的应用,定量评价和预测渤海湾的承载状况,为海洋开发与管理以及区域协调发展提供评价和决策支持的技术方法,促进中国海洋资源、生态和环境的可持续利用及海洋经济的可持续发展.     

Forecasting the carbon dioxide emissions in 53 countries and regions using a non-equigap grey model

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Non-equigap GM(1,1) model with conformable fractional accumulation (CFNGM(1,1)) is proposed to analyze the relationship between energy consumption and...     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans emissions from open burning of crop residues in China between 1997 and 2004

Annual emissions of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) from open burning of crop residues in each province of China mainland between 1997 and 2004 were estimated to be ranged from 1.38x10(3) to 1.52x10(3) g I-TEQ/yr, with the average of 1.50+/-0.08x10(3) g I-TEQ/yr, which contributed to approximately 10% approximately 20% of the total emissions in China. The PCDD/F emissions mainly occurred in the largest crop-producing provinces, especially in those of higher economic levels. The major sources of PCDD/F emissions from open burning in China were found to be cereal residues (i.e. rice, wheat, and corn), which accounted about 70% of the total emissions. Moreover, the first-order one-variable grey differential equation model (GM (1,1) model) for annual emissions of PCDD/Fs was established based on grey system theory. The GM (1,1) model was proved to be robust to predict the annual PCDD/F emissions from crop residue field burning in forthcoming years.     

Design And Performance Characteristics of High-Velocity,High-Efficiency Air Cleaning Precipitators

This paper presents an evaluation of four gaussian (GM, HIWAY, AIRPOL-4, CALINE-2), and three numerical (DANARD, MROAD 2, ROADS) models with the tracer gas data collected in the General Motors experiment. Various statistical techniques are employed to quantify the predictive capability of each of the above models. In general, the three numerical models performed rather poorly compared to the gaussian models. For this data set, the model with the best performance in accurately predicting the measured concentrations was the GM model followed in order by AIRPOL-4, HIWAY, CALINE-2, DANARD, MR0AD2, and ROADS. Although the GM model provides by far a better simulation than any of the models tested here, it is skewed toward underprediction. As a screening tool for regulatory purposes, however, HIWAY model would be useful since this model has the highest percentage in the category of overprediction if the concentration data in the range of 50th percentile through 100th percentile are included in the analysis. The present version of the HIWAY model for stable and parallel wind-road conditions warrants modifications to improve its predictive capability. Current studies indicate that the modified HIWAY model can be used with greater confidence by the regulatory agencies.     

Evaluation of detection methods for genetically modified traits in genotypes resistant to European corn borer and herbicides

Detection of genetically modified (GM) traits in corn (Zea mays L.) is urgently needed for preservation of genetic identity and marketing GM products. A laboratory study was conducted to evaluate the efficiency, accuracy, and reliability of different analytical methods to detect GM traits in corn. Samples with known fractions of GM concentrations (Bacillus thuringiensis [Bt], Liberty Link [LL] and stacked [Bt/LL] genes) from commercial seed companies and those derived from yellow kernels in a white corn ear, outcrossed by pollen of neighboring Bt hybrid, were tested by lateral flow quick test kits and by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based test strips purchased from different companies. Liberty Link hybrids are resistant to glufosinate (Liberty or Basta) herbicides, whereas Bt corn is developed for the control of European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis). Selected samples of GM concentrations were also tested in a commercial laboratory using DNA-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. The results demonstrated that qualitative lateral flow quick tests could detect samples containing 1% or higher Bt and 2% or higher LL concentrations within the recommended time limit of the test. Faint test lines for samples containing 0.5 to 1% Bt or 1 to 2% LL concentrations appeared if samples remained in the test cup overnight. ELISA test strips detected the Bt content semiquantitatively in the range of 0.5 to 2.0%. Grain samples derived from non-Bt corn outcrossed by neighboring Bt pollen had usually lower GM concentrations than commercial GM seed samples. Both ELISA- and DNA-based PCR tests distinguished samples with GM concentrations between 0.1 to 0.5%, but the precision of quantification at this range was very low and results were highly inconsistent.     

Falcon离心分选机回收废弃电路板金属的灰色模型研究

电子废弃物的资源化既能实现资源的二次利用,又能防止环境污染,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。论述了Falcon离心分选机分选电路板的机制,并对小于0.5mm废弃电路板中金属富集体进行了分选试验。运用GM(0,N)模型对离心复合力场中回收废弃电路板建立了分选灰色模型,与实际分选结果比较表明,该模型精度很高。该模型可以对离心复合力场中回收废弃电路板金属的分选试验结果进行预测。     

Mussel watch: a review of Cu and other metals in various marine organisms in Taiwan, 1991-98

This study presents the distribution of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Hg and As in various marine organisms collected along the western coast of Taiwan from 1991 to 1998, and also evaluates the time variation of Cu in oysters before (1980-85) and after (1986-98) the "green oyster" incident. The results show that relatively high geometric mean (GM) concentrations of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, As and Hg were generally found in Crassostrea gigas (Cu=229 microg/g, Zn=783 microg/g), Gomphina aeguialtera (Pb=30.3 microg/g), Tegillarca granosa (Cd=2.85 microg/g), Thais clavigera (As=96.9 microg/g) and Parapenaeopsis cornuta (Hg=1.35 microg/g), respectively. Especially, maximum Cu and Zn concentrations (GM=229 and 783 microg/g, respectively) in oysters (C. gigas) from different culture areas were much higher than those of the other organisms by about 1.13-458 and 2.40-63.7 times, respectively. Similarly, rock-shells (Thais clavigera) had a high capacity for accumulating Cu (GM=202 microg/g) and Zn (GM=326 microg/g) under the same physico-chemical conditions. The highest GM Cu and Zn concentrations of 1108 (range from 113 to 2806) and 1567 (range from 303 to 3593) microg/g were obtained in oysters from the Hsiangshan coastal area, one of the most important oyster culture areas in Taiwan. However, the highest GM Cd and As concentrations of 6.82 and 19.3 microg/g were found in oysters from the Machu Islands. Mean Cu concentrations in the oysters from the Erhjin Chi estuary declined from 2194+/-212 microg/g in 1986-90 to 545 microg/g (GM) in 1991-96. In the Hsiganshan area, GM Cu concentrations of 909 microg/g (1991-96) and 1351 microg/g (1997-98) in oysters were significantly higher than those of 201 microg/g (1980-85) and 682 microg/g (1986-90). The gradually increasing levels of Cu and Zn in the oysters from the Hsiangshan area have been observed year by year.