Watershed Evapotranspiration Increased due to Changes in Vegetation Composition and Structure Under a Subtropical Climate1

Abstract: Natural forests in southern China have been severely logged due to high human demand for timber, food, and fuels during the past century, but are recovering in the past decade. The objective of this study was to investigate how vegetation cover changes in composition and structure affected the water budgets of a 9.6‐km² Dakeng watershed located in a humid subtropical mountainous region in southern China. We analyzed 27 years (i.e., 1967‐1993) of streamflow and climate data and associated vegetation cover change in the watershed. Land use/land cover census and Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from remote sensing were used to construct historic land cover change patterns. We found that over the period of record, annual streamflow (Q) and runoff/precipitation ratio did not change significantly, nor did the climatic variables, including air temperature, Hamon’s potential evapotranspiration (ET), pan evaporation, sunshine hours, and radiation. However, annual ET estimated as the differences between P and Q showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Overall, the NDVI of the watershed had a significant increasing trend in the peak spring growing season. This study concluded that watershed ecosystem ET increased as the vegetation cover shifted from low stock forests to shrub and grasslands that had higher ET rates. A conceptual model was developed for the study watershed to describe the vegetation cover‐streamflow relationships during a 50‐year time frame. This paper highlighted the importance of eco‐physiologically based studies in understanding transitory, nonstationary effects of deforestation or forestation on watershed water balances.     

The Potential Influence of Seasonal Climate Variables on the Net Primary Production of Forests in Eastern China

Knowledge of the effects of climate factors on net primary production (NPP) is pivotal to understanding ecosystem processes in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Our goal was to evaluate four different categories of effects (physical, climatic, NDVI, and all effects[global]) as predictors of forest NPP in eastern China. We developed regression models with data from 221 NPP in eastern China and identified the best model with each of the four categories of effects. Models explained a large part of the variability in NPP, ranging from 46.8% in global model to 36.5% in NDVI model. In the most supported global model, winter temperature and sunshine duration negatively affected NPP, while winter precipitation positively affected NPP. Thus, winter climate conditions play an important role in modulating forest NPP of eastern China. Spring temperature had a positive affect on NPP, which was likely because a favorable warm climate in the early growing season promotes forest growth. Forest NPP was also negatively affected by summer and autumn temperatures, possibly because these are related to temperature induced drought stress. In the NDVI model, forest NPP was affected by NDVI in spring (positive), summer (negative) and winter (negative) seasons. Our study provides insight into seasonal effects of climate and NPP of forest in China, as well as useful knowledge for the development of climate-vegetation models.     

Hydrologic Effects of NDVI Time Series in a Context of Climatic Variability in an Upstream Catchment of the Minjiang River1

Abstract: Increasing regional vegetation activity has been frequently found especially in middle and high latitude and alpine areas, but the effects of which on regional hydrology is still highly uncertain. The Upstream Catchment of Minjiang River is a large mountainous catchment covering 22,919 km² with a diverse vegetation distribution pattern, including alpine group (A), subalpine group (SA), and temperate and subtropical group (T/ST). The Seasonal Mann‐Kendall test, a nonparametric trend test method, detected consistent upward trends in all groups in monthly accumulated growing degree days (AGDD_M) time series from 1982 to 2003, but no significant trend in mean monthly precipitation (MMP) time series in any group. The alpine group had a significant (p = 0.024) upward trend in monthly Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from 1982 to 2003, in contrast, the SA and T/ST groups had decreasing (although not significant) trends. AGDD_M plays more important role than MMP in affecting NDVI change in alpine areas, indicating temperature was the main climatic driver. In contrast, water was the main driver for the T/ST group, as indicated by the significant correlation between NDVI and MMP and a weak correlation with AGDD_M. Correlation coefficients of NDVI and river flow varied with seasons, mostly negative, especially during the growing season (April to October). A significant (p = 0.025) correlation was found only in August, indicating that an increase in peak‐NDVI decreased high flow significantly. TI‐NDVI_c, which was developed in an attempt to track the vegetation change at the catchment scale, accounted for more than 40% of the evapotranspiration increase (r² = 0.43).     

PRIESTLEY‐TAYLOR ALPHA COEFFICIENT: VARIABILITY AND RELATIONSHIP TO NDVI IN ARCTIC TUNDRA LANDSCAPES1

ABSTRACT: Average daily values of the Priestley‐Taylor coefficient (a) were calculated for two eddy covariance (flux) tower sites with contrasting vegetation, soil moisture, and temperature characteristics on the North Slope of Alaska over the 1994 and 1995 growing seasons. Because variations in a have been shown to be associated with changes in vegetation, soil moisture, and meteorological conditions in Arctic ecosystems, we hypothesized that a values would be significantly different between sites. Since variations in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) follow patterns of vegetation community composition and state that are largely controlled by moisture and temperature gradients on the North Slope of Alaska, we hypothesized that temporal variations in a respond to these same conditions and thus co‐vary with NDVI. Significant differences in a values were found between the two sites in 1994 under average precipitation conditions. However, in 1995, when precipitation conditions were above average, no significant difference was found. Overall, the variations in a over the two growing seasons showed little relationship to the seasonal progression of the regional NDVI. The only significant relationship was found at the drier, upland study site.     

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Vegetation Cover in the Spanish Central Pyrenees: Role of Human Management

A vegetation cover increase has been identified at global scales using satellite images and vegetation indices. This fact is usually explained by global climatic change processes such as CO₂ and temperature increases. Nevertheless, although these causes can be important, the role of socioeconomic transformations must be considered in some places, since in several areas of Northern Hemisphere an important change in management practices has been detected. Rural depopulation and land abandonment have reactivated the natural vegetation regeneration processes. This work analyses the vegetation evolution in the central Spanish Pyrenees from 1982 to 2000. The analysis has been done by using calibrated-NDVI temporal series from NOAA-AVHRR images. A positive and significant trend in NDVI data has been identified from 1982 to 2000 coinciding with a temperature increase in the study area. However, the spatial differences in magnitude and the sign of NDVI trends are significant. The role of land management changes in the 20th century is considered as a hypothesis to explain the spatial differences in NDVI trends. The role of land-cover and human land-uses on this process has been analyzed. The highest increment of NDVI is detected in lands affected by abandonment and human extensification. The importance of management changes in vegetation growth is discussed, and we indicate that although climate has great importance in vegetal evolution, land-management changes can not be neglected in our study area.     

安徽砀山水果产区近十年气候变化的R/S分析

基于1996—2005年的地面气象资料,应用R/S方法对砀山近十年平气温、降水和日照量等气候要素进行了分析。结果表明,砀山年平均气温、极端最高气温和极端最低气温均呈下降趋势,年降水量呈上升趋势,年日照量变化和缓,且具有较强的持续性。气候要素年际季节变化趋势表现为:冬、夏季平均温差减小,气温年较差有减小的趋势;降水夏季增加,其他各季节平均降水变率减小,各季节平均日照量变率减小。     

黄土高原植被类型变化和空间分布对气象因子变化的响应

利用基于GIS的黄土高原植被类型分布图,结合黄土高原地区标准气象站的气象因子资料,对黄土高原植被类型变化和空间分布对气象因子变化的响应关系进行了分析。结果显示:从东南到西北,年降水量、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温逐渐减少,年平均气温、全年日照时数、全年最大蒸散量、平均风速逐渐增加,植被类型由东南湿润半湿润森林、半干旱森林草原往西北转变成轻干旱、重半干旱的温性草原、干旱的荒漠半荒漠植被。     

Preliminary Estimation of the Realistic Optimum Temperature for Vegetation Growth in China

The estimation of optimum temperature of vegetation growth is very useful for a wide range of applications such as agriculture and climate change studies. Thermal conditions substantially affect vegetation growth. In this study, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and daily temperature data set from 1982 to 2006 for China were used to examine optimum temperature of vegetation growth. Based on a simple analysis of ecological amplitude and Shelford’s law of tolerance, a scientific framework for calculating the optimum temperature was constructed. The optimum temperature range and referenced optimum temperature (ROT) of terrestrial vegetation were obtained and explored over different eco-geographical regions of China. The results showed that the relationship between NDVI and air temperature was significant over almost all of China, indicating that terrestrial vegetation growth was closely related to thermal conditions. ROTs were different in various regions. The lowest ROT, about 7.0 °C, occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while the highest ROT, more than 22.0 °C, occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southern China region.     

A New Open‐Access HUC‐8 Based Downscaled CMIP‐5 Climate Model Forecast Dataset for the Conterminous United States

Watershed‐scale hydrologic simulation models generally require climate data inputs including precipitation and temperature. These climate inputs can be derived from downscaled global climate simulations which have the potential to drive runoff forecasts at the scale of local watersheds. While a simulation designed to drive a local watershed model would ideally be constructed at an appropriate scale, global climate simulations are, by definition, arbitrarily determined large rectangular spatial grids. This paper addresses the technical challenge of making climate simulation model results readily available in the form of downscaled datasets that can be used for watershed scale models. Specifically, we present the development and deployment of a new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) based database which has been prepared through a scaling and weighted averaging process for use at the level of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)‐8 watersheds. The resulting dataset includes 2,106 virtual observation sites (watershed centroids) each with 698 associated time series datasets representing average monthly temperature and precipitation between 1950 and 2099 based on 234 unique climate model simulations. The new dataset is deployed on a HydroServer and distributed using WaterOneFlow web services in the WaterML format. These methods can be adapted for downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) results for specific drainage areas smaller than HUC‐8. Two example use cases for the dataset also are presented.     

SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2°C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring, summer, or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only, to fall months only, and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff, such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt, may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition, relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation, once it is established, can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models.     

新疆精河县近56年来气候变化特征分析

利用精河县1953-2008年的气温和降水资料，通过回归分析、趋势分析和5年滑动平均法分析得出56年来该县的气温和降水总体呈上升趋势，气候呈暖湿化趋势，其中冬季增温明显，秋季降水增加较多。     

Causes of decreased reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in the Jinghe River catchment, northern China

This study focused on the changes of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and pan evaporation (ET_pan) to study the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle in the Jinghe River catchment. Based on the Penman–Monteith equation, the ET₀ was calculated. The temporal trend and spatial distribution of ET₀ and E_pan measured with a 20-cm pan were examined at the 14 stations during 1957–2005. The effects of meteorological factors on the variation of ET₀ were determined by analyzing the trends in themselves with comparison between original climate and detrended climate scenarios and then their sensitivity to ET₀. Both the ET₀ and E_pan showed remarkable decreasing trends from 1957 to 2005 and their decreasing rate was 40.9 and 17.7 mm per 10 years, respectively. Trend analysis of meteorological factors exhibited that the reduction in ET₀ and ET_pan was principally caused by both significant decreases in wind speed and sunshine hours. Furthermore, the decreasing trend of ET₀ was mainly dominated by the significant decrease in wind speed with high sensitivity, to a less extent, by the decrease in net radiation. Although relative humidity is one of the most sensitive variables, its effect on ET₀ was negligible because of its temporal constancy. The contribution of wind speed reduction to decreased ET₀ has increased from 50 to 76.1%, but net radiation, by contrast, decreased from 50 to 23.9%.     

基于Landsat／TM和ETM＋的理塘草地沙化趋势及其驱动力分析

文章利用1989、1994、2000和2005年的4期Landsat／TM，ETM＋遥感影像，在几何校正、辐射定标、大气校正的基础上计算了归一化植被指数（NDVI），建立最小二乘法线性回归方程对多时相NDVI进行同化处理，基于二分模型提取植被覆盖度并转换成荒漠化指数（DI），对理塘县城附近约103．1km2范围的分类研究结果表明：（1）分为无沙化、轻度、中度、重度和严重沙化5级，其中2005年中度、重度和严重沙化面积分别为2．562km2、2．925km2和1．576km2；中度沙化比1989年减少9．69％，重度和严重沙化分别增多35．79％和161．8％；（2）2005年中度以上沙化面积比1989年增加1．470km2，增加了26．3％，年增加率为1．47％；（3）沙化面积呈前期小、中期大幅增加、后期增加减缓的总体趋势；（4）降水量和风速因子的变化趋势有利于缓解沙化，气温变化趋势没有反映出对沙化的促进作用。人类活动是造成沙化趋于恶化的主要因素；（5）沙化增加趋势与同类研究结果一致。     

Long‐Term Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Northwest California and Southwest Oregon, 1953‐2012

Using nonparametric Mann‐Kendall tests, we assessed long‐term (1953‐2012) trends in streamflow and precipitation in Northern California and Southern Oregon at 26 sites regulated by dams and 41 “unregulated” sites. Few (9%) sites had significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation, but September precipitation declined at 70% of sites. Site characteristics such as runoff type (groundwater, snow, or rain) and dam regulation influenced streamflow trends. Decreasing streamflow trends outnumbered increasing trends for most months except at regulated sites for May‐September. Summer (July‐September) streamflow declined at many sites, including 73% of unregulated sites in September. Applying a LOESS regression model of antecedent precipitation vs. average monthly streamflow, we evaluated the underlying streamflow trend caused by factors other than precipitation. Decreasing trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow substantially outnumbered increasing trends for most months. As with streamflow, groundwater‐dominated sites had a greater percent of declining trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow than other runoff types. The most pristine surface‐runoff‐dominated watersheds within the study area showed no decreases in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow during the summer months. These results suggest that streamflow decreases at other sites were likely due to more increased human withdrawals and vegetation changes than to climate factors other than precipitation quantity.     

基于NDVI的大同煤田植被覆盖度动态变化研究

利用大同煤田地区1987年9月10日、2000年9月2日和2010年9月6日的TM遥感影像数据,采用基于NDVI的像元二分模型法反演了植被覆盖度,获取了该地区3个时期的植被覆盖度等级图,定量分析了该地区在大规模煤炭开采影响下的植被覆盖度的动态变化情况.研究结果表明1987年～2010年近24年以来,大同煤田地区植被覆盖度呈较明显的下降趋势,植被退化较严重.     

1961—2008年新疆阿克苏地区降水、温度变化特征

利用阿克苏地区5个气象站1961—2008年的降水和温度资料,对近50 a来该地区气候变化及其趋势进行了分析。各气象站年降水量变化趋势基本一致,总体上都呈增加趋势。除库车县气象站年平均温度呈降低趋势外,其余呈上升趋势。总体上,阿克苏地区年降水量和年平均温度均呈上升趋势。     

Streamflow Changes in the South Atlantic,United States During the Mid‐ and Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Repeated severe droughts over the last decade in the South Atlantic have raised concern that streamflow may be systematically decreasing, possibly due to climate variability. We examined the monthly and annual trends of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature in the South Atlantic for the time periods: 1934‐2005, 1934‐1969, and 1970‐2005. Streamflow and climate (temperature and precipitation) trends transitioned ca. 1970. From 1934 to 1969, streamflow and precipitation increased in southern regions and decreased in northern regions; temperature decreased throughout the South Atlantic. From 1970 to 2005, streamflow decreased, precipitation decreased, and temperature increased throughout the South Atlantic. It is unclear whether these will be continuing trends or simply part of a long‐term climatic oscillation. Whether these streamflow trends have been driven by climatic or anthropogenic changes, water resources management faces challenging prospects to adapt to decadal‐scale persistently wet and dry hydrologic conditions.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins1

Jin, Xin and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 197‐220. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00605.x Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin‐scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from ?3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9°C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between ?6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5°C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias‐correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from ?58 to +106 m³/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from ?198 to +88 m³/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision‐making process.     

气象因子对鹤望兰产量的影响因素

采用滑移相关和斜交因子分析方法,得出影响成都地区鹤望兰产量的气象因子是温度、光照和相对湿度,且有显著的超前性.冬季的增温、增光和降低湿度是增加春季产量的重要管理环节,而秋季的增光、降低湿度是提高秋、冬季产量的重要措施.     

宁夏近51年气候变化特征分析

利用宁夏10个气象站1960-2010年日气温和降水资料,对宁夏气温和降水的时空变化特征进行了分析.结果显示:①宁夏整体呈现暖干化趋势,但存在区域间差异.②近51年来宁夏年平均气温呈上升趋势,冬季升温幅度大,秋季升温幅度最小.③年平均降水量总体呈现减小趋势,春季微弱增加,冬季降水量显著增加,夏季降水微弱减少,秋季降水减少明显.④通过Kriging空间差值法分析表明,年平均气温总体呈现由西南向西北递增的趋势,中、北部增温较明显；平均年总降水量总体呈现由西南向西北递减的规律,中、北部降水量减小最为明显.