Study on habitat suitability of overwintering cranes based on landscape pattern change—a case study of typical lake wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Shengjin Lake wetland is located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. It is a typical lake-type wetland and is also an ideal place for rare cranes to overwintering. The changes of wetland landscape are closely related to the habitat quality of wintering cranes. It is of great significance to study the habitat change of wintering cranes in wetland for wetland ecological restoration and restoration. In this paper, we analyze four kinds of winter cranes and wetland landscape pattern types from the years 1986 to 2015. Also, we adopted the Pearson correlation analysis method to analyze the relationship between wetland landscape types and crane population, and the main landscape types of cranes habitat were obtained. We selected disturbance degree, food richness, vegetation cover, and hydrological condition as the main factors affecting wintering habitat of cranes. We established a habitat suitability index model for wintering cranes and generated habitat suitability assessment maps by ArcGIS. The results show that the change of landscape pattern in Shengjin Lake protected area was obvious, the number of wetland patches increased, the fragmentation degree of landscape increased, the landscape patch difference became smaller, and the diversity index and evenness index increased gradually. From 1986 to 2015, the number of wintering cranes decreased and the habitat suitability index of wintering cranes decreased from 0.845 to 0.465, and the habitat suitability of wintering cranes fell from 13,577.11 to 7424.42 ha, which showed the overall habitat deteriorated significantly and had a positive correlation between the crane population and habitat suitability.

     

A coupled carbon-water-energy-vegetation model to assess responses of temperate forest ecosystems to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Part I. Model concept

Predictions of forest ecosystem response to changes in climate and atmospheric CO(2) concentration require hierarchically structured process models. Present forest simulation models have conceptual limitations that restrict their application to climate-change studies. A major drawback of forest succession models is that they often lack physiological details in the simulation of annual tree growth. On the other hand, aggregated ecosystem models assume spatially homogeneous forests, and do not account for successional changes in forest composition and canopy structure. The concept of a new coupled carbon-water-energy-forest vegetation model is presented which attempts to overcome the main limitations of existing models by implementing a modern view of ecological hierarchy and a robust approach for scaling ecological processes in space and time.     

Past, current and future fire frequency in the Canadian boreal forest: implications for sustainable forest management

Over the past decades, there has been an increasing interest in the development of forest management approaches that are based on an understanding of historical natural disturbance dynamics. The rationale for such an approach is that management to favor landscape compositions and stand structures similar to those of natural ecosystems should also maintain biological diversity and essential ecological functions. In fire-dominated landscapes, this approach is possible only if current and future fire frequencies are sufficiently low, comparing to pre-industrial fire frequency, that we can substitute fire by forest management. We address this question by comparing current and future fire frequency to historical reconstruction of fire frequency from studies realized in the Canadian boreal forest. Current and simulated future fire frequencies using 2 and 3 x CO2 scenarios are lower than the historical fire frequency for many sites, suggesting that forest management could potentially be used to recreate the forest age structure of fire-controlled pre-industrial landscapes. There are however, important limitations to the current even-age management.     

Comparison among model estimates of critical loads of acidic deposition using different sources and scales of input data

The critical load (CL) of acidic atmospheric deposition represents the load of acidity deposited from the atmosphere to the earth’s surface at which harmful acidification effects on sensitive biological receptors are thought to occur. In this study, the CL for forest soils was estimated for 27 watersheds throughout the United States using a steady-state mass balance approach based on both national and site-specific data and using different approaches for estimating base cation weathering. Results suggested that the scale and source of input data can have large effects on the calculated CL and that the most important parameter in the steady-state model used to estimate CL is base cation weathering. These results suggest that the data and approach used to estimate weathering must be robust if the calculated CL is to be useful for its intended purpose.     

Biodiversity Conservation in Swedish Forests: Ways Forward for a 30-Year-Old Multi-Scaled Approach

A multi-scaled model for biodiversity conservation in forests was introduced in Sweden 30 years ago, which makes it a pioneer example of an integrated ecosystem approach. Trees are set aside for biodiversity purposes at multiple scale levels varying from individual trees to areas of thousands of hectares, with landowner responsibility at the lowest level and with increasing state involvement at higher levels. Ecological theory supports the multi-scaled approach, and retention efforts at every harvest occasion stimulate landowners’ interest in conservation. We argue that the model has large advantages but that in a future with intensified forestry and global warming, development based on more progressive thinking is necessary to maintain and increase biodiversity. Suggestions for the future include joint planning for several forest owners, consideration of cost-effectiveness, accepting opportunistic work models, adjusting retention levels to stand and landscape composition, introduction of temporary reserves, creation of “receiver habitats” for species escaping climate change, and protection of young forests.     

Modeling the long-term transport and accumulation of radionuclides in the landscape for derivation of dose conversion factors

To evaluate the radiological impact of potential releases to the biosphere from a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel, it is necessary to assess the long-term dynamics of the distribution of radionuclides in the environment. In this paper, we propose an approach for making prognoses of the distribution and fluxes of radionuclides released from the geosphere, in discharges of contaminated groundwater, to an evolving landscape. The biosphere changes during the temperate part (spanning approximately 20,000 years) of an interglacial period are handled by building biosphere models for the projected succession of situations. Radionuclide transport in the landscape is modeled dynamically with a series of interconnected radioecological models of those ecosystem types (sea, lake, running water, mire, agricultural land and forest) that occur at present, and are projected to occur in the future, in a candidate area for a geological repository in Sweden. The transformation between ecosystems is modeled as discrete events occurring every thousand years by substituting one model by another. Examples of predictions of the radionuclide distribution in the landscape are presented for several scenarios with discharge locations varying in time and space. The article also outlines an approach for estimating the exposure of man resulting from all possible reasonable uses of a potentially contaminated landscape, which was used for derivation of Landscape Dose Factors.     

Water and sectoral policies in agriculture–forest frontiers: An expanded interdisciplinary research approach

Major land use changes such as deforestation and restoration influence water resources in agriculture–forest landscapes. Changes are observed in water flows, groundwater infiltration, water quality and rainfall. Interdisciplinary water–forest research has unravelled biophysical parts of the interplay that influences forest and water resources. In this Perspective paper, we propose an expanded interdisciplinary research approach to study water and policies in agriculture–forest frontiers. The approach differs in four important aspects from previous ones: (i) a conceptual ‘frontier’ understanding; an analytical focus on (ii) agriculture and (iii) policy–water linkages; (iv) empirical attention to northern and southern countries. The approach is put into practice with the “Pendulum” framework, with interventions and the agriculture–forest frontier oscillating over time between exploitation and restoration. Through the approach, a better understanding will be provided on the dynamic interplay of water and policies in oscillating agriculture–forest frontiers, with changing outcomes for people and environment.     

A model for estimating the potential biomagnification of chemicals in a generic food web: Preliminary development

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic pollutants have been increasingly assessed and modeled during the last years. Due to the complexity of these processes and the large variability of food webs, setting generic assessments for these parameters is really difficult. Equilibrium models, based on a compound's lipophylicity, are the main tool in regulatory proposals, such as for identifying Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic Substances (PBTs), although a refinement has been claimed by the scientific community. Toxicokinetic studies offer an alternative for these estimations, where biomagnification is modeled as a succession of bioaccumulation processes, each one regulated by toxicokinetic parameters. METHODS: A review of kinetic models covering species belonging to different trophic levels and with different ecological behavior has been conducted. The results were employed for setting a conceptual model for estimating the biomagnification potential in a generic food web, which was mathematically implemented through system dynamic models developed under data sheet software. Crystal Ball was then employed for allowing Monte Carlo based probabilistic calculations. Bioaccumulation laboratory assays have been performed to estimate toxicokinetic parameters in mussels (Mytilus edulis) with two PAHs (chrysene and benzo[a]pyrene). The contamination was delivered via food. The exposure period lasted more than one month followed then by a depuration phase. The contaminant content was determined on an individual basis on five replicates. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:. The reviewed information suggested the development of a tiered conceptual biomagnification model, starting with a simplified food chain which can be refined to more realistic and complex models in successive levels. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical implementation of the conceptual model offers tools for estimating the potential for bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemicals under very different conditions. The versatility of the model can be used for both comparative estimations and for validating the model. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Since bioaccumulation and biomagnification processes are crucial elements for a proper risk assessment of chemicals, their estimation by mathematical models has been widely tested. However, inregulatory assessments, too simplistic models are still being used quite often. The biomagnification model presented in this study should be amore accurate alternative to these models. In comparison to other previously published biomagnification models, the present one covers the time variation of bioaccumulation using just a few toxicokinetic parameters.     

Two-dimensional gap analysis: a tool for efficient conservation planning and biodiversity policy implementation

The maintenance of biodiversity by securing representative and well-connected habitat networks in managed landscapes requires a wise combination of protection, management, and restoration of habitats at several scales. We suggest that the integration of natural and social sciences in the form of "Two-dimensional gap analysis" is an efficient tool for the implementation of biodiversity policies. The tool links biologically relevant "horizontal" ecological issues with "vertical" issues related to institutions and other societal issues. Using forest biodiversity as an example, we illustrate how one can combine ecological and institutional aspects of biodiversity conservation, thus facilitating environmentally sustainable regional development. In particular, we use regional gap analysis for identification of focal forest types, habitat modelling for ascertaining the functional connectivity of "green infrastructures", as tools for the horizontal gap analysis. For the vertical dimension we suggest how the social sciences can be used for assessing the success in the implementation of biodiversity policies in real landscapes by identifying institutional obstacles while implementing policies. We argue that this interdisciplinary approach could be applied in a whole range of other environments including other terrestrial biota and aquatic ecosystems where functional habitat connectivity, nonlinear response to habitat loss and a multitude of economic and social interests co-occur in the same landscape.     

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of The Lead Peroxide Method for Atmospheric Monitoring of Sulfur Dioxide

This paper presents a simplified analysis to determine the variables that affect the empirical correlation factor used in the lead peroxide method. The rate of sulfation has been determined from two different models. In the first model, the mass transfer rate is calculated from the gas phase resistance alone whereas in the second model, the diffusion resistance in the gel phase is assumed to be the rate limiting step. Although the gas phase and the gel phase resistances may be both important in the actual case, it has been found that the correlation factor based on the first model is adequate to describe general experimental observations. Reasonable agreement has been obtained between the measured and the calculated va|ue of the correlation factor.     

Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate.     

Evidence-Based Knowledge Versus Negotiated Indicators for Assessment of Ecological Sustainability: The Swedish Forest Stewardship Council Standard as a Case Study

Assessing ecological sustainability involves monitoring of indicators and comparison of their states with performance targets that are deemed sustainable. First, a normative model was developed centered on evidence-based knowledge about (a) forest composition, structure, and function at multiple scales, and (b) performance targets derived by quantifying the habitat amount in naturally dynamic forests, and as required for presence of populations of specialized focal species. Second, we compared the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification standards’ ecological indicators from 1998 and 2010 in Sweden to the normative model using a Specific, Measurable, Accurate, Realistic, and Timebound (SMART) indicator approach. Indicator variables and targets for riparian and aquatic ecosystems were clearly under-represented compared to terrestrial ones. FSC’s ecological indicators expanded over time from composition and structure towards function, and from finer to coarser spatial scales. However, SMART indicators were few. Moreover, they poorly reflected quantitative evidence-based knowledge, a consequence of the fact that forest certification mirrors the outcome of a complex social negotiation process.     

Detecting crucial dispersal pathways using a virtual ecology approach: A case study of the mirid bug <Emphasis Type="Italic">Stenotus rubrovittatus</Emphasis>

Detecting dispersal pathways is important both for understanding species range expansion and for managing nuisance species. However, direct detection is difficult. Here, we propose detecting these crucial pathways using a virtual ecology approach, simulating species dynamics using models, and virtual observations. As a case study, we developed a dispersal model based on cellular automata for the pest insect Stenotus rubrovittatus and simulated its expansion. We tested models for species expansion based on four landscape parameters as candidate pathways; these are river density, road density, area of paddy fields, and area of abandoned farmland, and validated their accuracy. We found that both road density and abandoned area models had prediction accuracy. The simulation requires simple data only to have predictive power, allowing for fast modeling and swift establishment of management plans.     

Keeping pace with forestry: Multi-scale conservation in a changing production forest matrix

The multi-scale approach to conserving forest biodiversity has been used in Sweden since the 1980s, a period defined by increased reserve area and conservation actions within production forests. However, two thousand forest-associated species remain on Sweden’s red-list, and Sweden’s 2020 goals for sustainable forests are not being met. We argue that ongoing changes in the production forest matrix require more consideration, and that multi-scale conservation must be adapted to, and integrated with, production forest development. To make this case, we summarize trends in habitat provision by Sweden’s protected and production forests, and the variety of ways silviculture can affect biodiversity. We discuss how different forestry trajectories affect the type and extent of conservation approaches needed to secure biodiversity, and suggest leverage points for aiding the adoption of diversified silviculture. Sweden’s long-term experience with multi-scale conservation and intensive forestry provides insights for other countries trying to conserve species within production landscapes.

     

Comparison of artificial neural network and regression models in the prediction of urban stormwater quality.

Urban stormwater quality is influenced by many interrelated processes. However, the site-specific nature of these complex processes makes stormwater quality difficult to predict using physically based process models. This has resulted in the need for more empirical techniques. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to model urban stormwater quality. A total of 5 different constituents were analyzed-chemical oxygen demand, lead, suspended solids, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Input variables were selected using stepwise linear regression models, calibrated on logarithmically transformed data. Artificial neural networks models were then developed and compared with the regression models. The results from the analyses indicate that multiple linear regression models were more applicable for predicting urban stormwater quality than ANN models.     

Comparison of regression coefficient and GIS-based methodologies for regional estimates of forest soil carbon stocks

Estimates of forest soil organic carbon (SOC) have applications in carbon science, soil quality studies, carbon sequestration technologies, and carbon trading. Forest SOC has been modeled using a regression coefficient methodology that applies mean SOC densities (mass/area) to broad forest regions. A higher resolution model is based on an approach that employs a geographic information system (GIS) with soil databases and satellite-derived landcover images. Despite this advancement, the regression approach remains the basis of current state and federal level greenhouse gas inventories. Both approaches are analyzed in detail for Wisconsin forest soils from 1983 to 2001, applying rigorous error-fixing algorithms to soil databases. Resulting SOC stock estimates are 20% larger when determined using the GIS method rather than the regression approach. Average annual rates of increase in SOC stocks are 3.6 and 1.0 million metric tons of carbon per year for the GIS and regression approaches respectively.     

Wildlife in the cloud: A new approach for engaging stakeholders in wildlife management

Research in wildlife management increasingly relies on quantitative population models. However, a remaining challenge is to have end-users, who are often alienated by mathematics, benefiting from this research. I propose a new approach, ‘wildlife in the cloud,’ to enable active learning by practitioners from cloud-based ecological models whose complexity remains invisible to the user. I argue that this concept carries the potential to overcome limitations of desktop-based software and allows new understandings of human-wildlife systems. This concept is illustrated by presenting an online decision-support tool for moose management in areas with predators in Sweden. The tool takes the form of a user-friendly cloud-app through which users can compare the effects of alternative management decisions, and may feed into adjustment of their hunting strategy. I explain how the dynamic nature of cloud-apps opens the door to different ways of learning, informed by ecological models that can benefit both users and researchers.     

Risk management in sustainable supply chain: a knowledge map towards intellectual structure,logic diagram,and conceptual model

The global spread of COVID-19, international trade protectionism, geopolitical conflicts, and climate change presents challenges and risks to sustainable supply chains (SSCs). In recent years, scholarly interest in sustainable supply chain risk management (SSCRM) has continued to rise. A helpful literature review is necessary to enable supply chain practitioners to apply empirical findings from academic research or conceptual frameworks to their operations to maintain the stability and competitiveness of sustainable supply chains. The knowledge map of SSCRM is explored in this study using both quantitative and qualitative analysis. A total of 793 articles were retrieved to reveal the knowledge map of SSCRM. Scientometric and context analysis are combined in quantitative analysis to identify the intellectual structure of risk management research related to SSC. Then, a critical review is conducted in qualitative analysis to summarize and analyze the motivations, strategies, approaches, and tools of SSCRM. Combining the quantitative and qualitative analysis results, a conceptual model is constructed for SSCRM from three aspects: (1) risk identification, (2) risk assessment, and (3) risk mitigating and responding. Finally, future research directions are suggested based on the conceptual model for guiding the theories and practice of SSCRM. This study can work as a roadmap for providing appropriate risk management policies and toolkits to SSC, which could advance theoretical thinking on how to mitigate SSC risks.

     

Kinetics of <Superscript>210</Superscript>Po accumulation in moss body profiles

Radionuclide concentration analysis of total moss bodies often gave relatively different results than a separate analysis of each different morphological part of the same sample. The dynamics of the transfer of metals by dust uplifted from the soil and another approach, based on the diffusion of the two radionuclides to the moss, have been analyzed. In the proposed model, short- and long-term approaches have been applied. Each part of a moss’s profile can show different radionuclides accumulation ability, including both ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po isotopes. A first-order kinetic model has been used for ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb transport between three body components of mosses. This mathematical approach has been applied for ²¹⁰Po activity concentration in the air estimation. For relatively clean deep forest region, calculated concentrations were from 17.2 to 43.8 μBqm^?3, while for urban air concentrations were higher from 49.1 to 104.9 μBqm^?3.     

Conserving connectivity: Human influence on subsidy transfer and relevant restoration efforts

Conservation efforts tend to focus on the direct impacts humans have on their surrounding environment; however there are also many ways in which people indirectly affect ecosystems. Recent research on ecological subsidies—the transfer of energy and nutrients from one ecosystem to another—has highlighted the importance of nutrient exchange for maintaining productivity and diversity at a landscape scale, while also pointing toward the fragility of ecotones and vulnerability of subsidies to human activities. We review the recent literature on landscape connectivity and ecosystem subsidies from aquatic systems to terrestrial systems. Based on this review, we propose a conceptual model of how human activities may alter or eliminate the flow of energy and nutrients between ecosystems by influencing the delivery of subsidies along the pathway of transfer. To demonstrate the utility of this conceptual model, we discuss it in the context of case studies of subsidies derived from salmon, marine mammals, sea turtles, sea birds, and shoreline debris. Subsidy restoration may require a different set of actions from simply reversing the pathway of degradation. We suggest that effective restoration and conservation efforts will require a multifaceted approach, targeting many steps along the subsidy transfer pathway, to address these issues.