基于中国电网结构及一线典型城市车辆出行特征的PHEV二氧化碳排放分析

中国电网火电比例的空间差异与插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV）驱动能源的二元性增加了研究PHEV二氧化碳排放的复杂性.使用上海市50辆PHEV汽车13万km的数据,研究了基于PHEV实际运行数据的二氧化碳排放评估方法,分析了PHEV纯电驱动里程比例及其影响因素,获得了纯电续驶里程、充电频率、电网构成对PHEV二氧化碳排放强度的影响,展望了2020年PHEV技术水平的二氧化碳减排效果.结果表明,我国一线城市PHEV乘用车出行主要集中在50 km以内的范围,占日常出行频次的70%;在2016年全国平均电网结构下,续驶里程超过50 km的PHEV比传统燃油车少排放15%以上的二氧化碳;在高比例可再生能源电网结构的地区,PHEV碳排放可降至100.0 g·km^-1以下,相比平均电网结构下碳排放水平降低幅度在28%以上;在2016年平均电网结构及技术水平下,纯电续驶里程增加（50~100 km）、充电频率增加（0.5~2次·d^-1）对碳排放的改善幅度不明显;与2016年相比,2020年PHEV燃油经济性和电耗水平的改善可降低32%的碳排放.     

Intensity and daily pattern of passenger vehicle use by region and class in China: estimation and implications for energy use and electrification

Given the explosive growth of the passenger vehicle market and energy demands in China, research on vehicle-use intensity and driver-travel patterns is critical for better assessing travel demand and its implications for alternative fuel vehicles, energy security, and environmental policies. This study attempts to estimate annual vehicle kilometers traveled (AVKT) per privately-owned passenger vehicle and their daily distance patterns by vehicle class and geographic region. The data sample from a survey consists of 169,292 privately owned passenger vehicles, made by 177 car manufacturers during 2003–2018, running in 82 cities from 27 provincial regions. The log-transformed average AVKT is estimated to be 12,377 km with 95% probability ranging from 5490 to 28,579 km. The investigation reveals that vehicles from South China have the highest AVKT at 13,320 km. Generally, vehicles in small cities have higher AVKT than in big cities, except AVKT of tier 1 cities being higher. Another trend is that more expensive or larger vehicles tend to be driven more. A model is fitted for estimating AVKT based on region, city type, automaker, price range, and certain vehicle features including class and age. Data of daily commuting distances in recent years are also analyzed. The average daily commuting distances typically range from 21 to 28 km. Using the validated Gamma distribution method, daily distance distributions are specified for different regions. It is found that 99% of the daily driving distance is no more than 88.0–112.0 km, depending on region. Utility factors of plug-in electric vehicles are also estimated to be much higher than those based on driving data in the USA. These findings suggest global mitigations strategies on vehicle fuel use, electrification, and greenhouse gases should consider vehicle-use intensity at the regional level.

     

Energy-saving benefits from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: perspectives based on real-world measurements

Promoting plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) is one important option to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants for road transportation sector. In 2015, more than 220,000 new PHEVs were registered across the world, indicating a 25-fold growth during 2011–2015. However, more criticizes have been put forward against the current energy efficiency regulations for vehicles that are mostly depended on laboratory measurements. To better understand the real-world energy-saving and emission mitigation benefits from PHEVs, we conducted on-road testing experiments under various operating conditions for two in-use PHEVs in Beijing, China. Our results indicate that air condition usage, congested traffic conditions, and higher loading mass could significantly increase energy consumption and shorten actual all-electric distance for PHEVs. For example, the worst case (14.1 km) would occur under harshest usage conditions, which is lower by at least 35% than the claimed range over 20 km. In charge sustaining (CS) mode, real-world fuel consumption also presents a large range from 3.5 L/100 km to 6.3 L/100 km because of varying usage conditions. Furthermore, various vehicle users have significantly different travel profiles, which would lead to large heterogeneity of emission mitigation benefits among individual PHEV adopters. Therefore, this study suggests that the global policy makers should use real-world energy efficiency of emerging electrified powertrain techniques as criteria to formulate relevant regulations and supportive policies.     

中国分省道路交通二氧化碳排放因子

基于本地化的综合移动源排放模型（Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator,MOVES）模型模拟典型机动车的CO₂排放因子,并建立排放因子与速度变化关系的评估方程,结合各省路网平均速度与区域电网排放因子核算中国31个省份分车型的CO₂排放因子.同时,综合考虑载客汽车的载客量和客座率,载货汽车的载重量和载货率,建立各省单位客运,货运周转量的机动车CO₂排放因子库.结果表明,各类机动车的平均CO₂排放因子分别为：柴油公交车0.880kgCO₂/km,重型货车0.877kgCO₂/km,电动公交车0.676kgCO₂/km,中型货车0.508kgCO₂/km,轻型货车0.374kgCO₂/km,柴油小客车0.227kgCO₂/km,微型货车0.216kgCO₂/km,汽油小客车0.203kgCO₂/km,电动小客车0.108kgCO₂/km,摩托车0.062kgCO₂/km.车辆满载时,柴油公交车和电动公交车的人均CO₂排放量比汽油小客车分别降低了63%和73%,电动小客车的人均CO₂排放量较汽油和柴油小客车分别下降了46%和51%.较高的机动车保有量,频繁的道路拥堵导致上海,北京和重庆等市的机动车CO₂排放因子相对较高.倡导公共交通,提高客座率,降低私家车使用频率,推广纯电动汽车并通过减少道路拥堵以提高车速是降低道路交通CO₂排放量的有效途径.     

推广新能源汽车碳减排和大气污染控制的协同效益研究——以上海市为例

随着我国机动车数量的持续增长,交通运输行业已经成为仅次于工业部门的第二大能源消费部门,也是温室气体排放和空气污染物的主要贡献部门.为了支持低碳发展,自2009年起,中国便开始使用新能源汽车取代传统燃油汽车.通过上海市2016年纯电动和插电式混合动力的私家车、出租车和公交车的行驶情况、能源消耗和排放因子等数据,对新能源汽车运行过程以及所需电能生产过程中产生的大气污染物和CO₂的排放量进行了测算,利用协同控制坐标系评价和污染物减排量交叉弹性分析方法探讨了新能源汽车的协同减排能力与效果.基于协同效益潜力分析结果,对推广3类新能源汽车的协同效益进行了排序,结果表明纯电动公交车具有最佳的碳减排和大气污染控制协同效益,纯电动以及插电式混合动力私家车和出租车对CO、NO_x、NMHC、PM₁₀都具有协同效益,而插电式混合动力公交车不具备协同效益.     

不同燃料汽车排放超细微粒特性的实验研究

利用底盘测功机和粒径范围0.015~0.7 m的扫描迁移微粒测定仪 SMPS,对柴油出租车、柴油小巴车、汽油私家车和LPG出租车进行了高低怠速和10 kmh-1到70 kmh-1不同运行工况条件下排放的超细微粒粒径分布试验研究。研究表明：不同燃料车在不同工况条件下排放的细微粒尤其是超细微粒特征呈现显著的不同。柴油车贡献更多的是粒径在30～150 nm的核模态和积聚模态微粒,LPG和汽油车贡献更多的是15～30 nm的核模态微粒。总体上,柴油车比汽油车和LPG燃料车排放更多的微粒数和微粒质量;柴油车、汽油车和LPG车排放的SMPS可测细微粒总数、总质量分别约为(0.3~3.6) 108 cm-3,0.03~0.6 gcm-3;2.3×104~1.2×107 cm-3,8×10-5~0.1 gcm-3; 8.2×103~8.8×106 cm-3, 1.7×10-5~0.09 gcm-3;对所有测试汽车,在低怠速和低行驶速度时,排放微粒数少,在高怠速和高行驶速度时,排放微粒数多。     

低碳交通电动汽车碳减排潜力及其影响因素分析

交通运输是城市能源消耗和碳排放的重点行业,为通过节能减排实现低碳城市发展目标,传统汽油车向新能源汽车的转型是一项重要的举措,其中电动汽车因其节能减排的优势将在这次转型中发挥重要作用.在全面总结现有电动汽车节能减排研究成果的基础上,分析了影响电动汽车的减排因素,并应用燃料生命周期的理论,结合北京市的电动汽车推广计划,以纯电动汽车为例,采用改进的燃料碳排放模型,并设置6种情景分析了电动汽车的碳排放及其减排潜力,包括发电能源结构、车用燃料类型(单位燃料的CO2排放系数)、汽车类型(百公里能耗)、城市交通状况(时速)、煤电发电技术、电池类型(重量、能效)等因素对电动汽车减排潜力的影响.结果表明,改进后的模型能更科学测算燃料消耗碳排放;纯电动汽车具有明显的制约性碳减排潜力,在分析的6种影响因素中其波动幅度为57%～81.2%,其中,发电能源结构和煤电技术供电路线对电动汽车燃料生命周期碳减排空间起决定性作用,其减排空间分别可达78.1%及81.2%.最后从改善能源结构、提高煤电技术、推广节能技术、加快动力蓄电池研发、推广纯电动汽车等方面提出了推广电动汽车降低交通能耗和碳排放的优化措施,以期为低碳交通新能源汽车转型政策的制定提供科学依据和方法支撑.     

在用车推行I/M制度的检测方法的成本效益分析

从检测性能和成本效益两方面对几种检测方法进行分析比较，并结合国内外I/M制度的实施情况和上海市的特点，建议上海市实施I/M制度时，初期对轻型汽油车采用VMAS，后期采用IM240进行检测；对轻型柴油车可采用瞬态简易工况法和Lugdown系统。     

中国氢燃料电池车燃料生命周期的化石能源消耗和CO2排放

氢燃料电池车(FCV)具有运行阶段高能效和零排放的优点,近年来得到快速的商业化发展.氢能生产具有多种技术路径,不同路径的能源和环境效益存在显著差异.本研究采用生命周期评价方法,运用GREET模型对不同氢燃料路径下的FCV燃料周期(WTW)的化石能源消耗和CO_2排放进行了全面评价.选取了多种制氢路径作为评价对象,建立了中国本地化的FCV燃料生命周期数据库,在此基础上分析了FCV相对传统汽油车的WTW节能减排效益,并和混合动力车和纯电动车进行比较.结果表明,使用可再生电力和生物质等绿色能源制氢供应FCV能取得显著的WTW节能减排效益,可削减约90%的化石能耗和CO_2排放.在发展相对成熟的传统能源制氢路径中,以焦炉煤气制得氢气为原料的FCV,能产生显著的节能减排效益,其化石能耗低于混合动力车,CO_2排放低于混合动力车和纯电动车.结合对资源储备和技术成熟度的考虑,我国在发展氢能及FCV过程中,近期可考虑利用焦炉煤气等工业副产物制氢,并且规划中远期的绿色制氢技术发展.     

北京市轻型汽油车蒸发排放总量评估

通过实际测试得到轻型汽油车蒸发排放热浸和昼间排放因子,结合北京市轻型汽油车保有量和车辆使用情况,基于MOVES模型评估北京市轻型汽油车蒸发排放总量.结果表明,国五和国六标准车辆的平均蒸发排放因子分为1.03,0.37g/test;轻型汽油车蒸发排放随行驶里程增加未出现明显劣化趋势;北京市轻型汽油车蒸发排放总量为8299...     

实车三效催化剂表面成分分析

对主要在北京行驶的总里程在34×104～59×104km的6辆轻型出租车用三效催化剂,利用X射线荧光光谱仪(XRF)分析了其表面元素的种类、含量,以及污染物元素含量与行驶里程的关系.结果表明,在催化剂表面检测到的元素种类近30种,含量较高的元素种类基本相同.前后级催化剂上检测到的共同污染物元素有P、Ca、Zn和Mn等,主要来自于机油和汽油,34×104km行驶里程后,P在催化剂的累积速度已非常缓慢,Ca、Zn和Mn在催化剂表面的沉积经过56×104km后仍有增加的趋势.在后级催化剂上还检测到了明显的S含量,说明S更容易在后级催化剂上沉积.经过40×104km行驶里程后,S在催化剂表面的沉积量基本达到平衡状态.累积规律说明经过40×104km行驶里程后,容易使催化剂中毒的P和S对催化剂活性影响已较小,而Ca、Zn和Mn的持续累积,将会继续降低催化剂的活性.     

轻型汽油车VOCs排放特征及其大气反应活性

采用车载式尾气测量系统对国Ⅱ、国Ⅲ、国Ⅳ轻型汽油车在实际道路排放的尾气进行样品采集,并采用GC-MS、GC-FID对尾气中烷烃、烯烃、苯系物进行测试分析.结果表明轻型汽油车的VOCs排放因子随排放标准的提高显著降低,国Ⅱ、国Ⅲ、国Ⅳ3种车型的排放因子分别为49.62、21.65、6.72mg/km.苯系物占测定VOCs组分的比例最高,占到总VOCs的47.43%~60.52%.由排放的VOCs估算获得不同标准车型的臭氧生成潜势及二次有机气溶胶生成潜势分别为24.64~234.14mg/km和13.24~125.32mg/km.在对国Ⅲ车型进行的不同速度的实验结果显示,轻型汽油车尾气VOCs排放因子及相应的臭氧生成潜势和二次有机气溶胶生成潜势均随实验车速的升高而降低.     

机动车尾气碳质气溶胶排放因子及其稳定碳同位素特征

机动车尾气是大气碳质气溶胶的重要人为来源,其排放因子与稳定碳同位素组成是重要的基础数据.选取多辆不同类型在用机动车,进行多种工况、冷/热条件下启动的台架试验,收集各测试阶段尾气分析其碳质组分含量与稳定碳同位素比值,并探讨其影响因素.结果表明,总碳排放因子大小为：重型柴油车>轻型柴油车>轻型汽油车,轻型天然气车虽然在低速与中速阶段排放因子极低,但高速行驶阶段可达到重型柴油车的排放水平.各型车冷启动的排放因子均高于热启动,NEDC工况的排放因子整体低于WLTC工况,应与其测试车速有关.汽油车和天然气车各测试阶段排放有机碳(OC)均远高于元素碳(EC),柴油车OC与EC排放因子相近,各类车辆OC/EC都随测试车速的提高而上升.稳定碳同位素EC重于OC,同位素比值大小关系均呈现：汽油车<天然气车<轻型柴油车<重型柴油车,现有源解析的稳定碳同位素源谱较难反映汽油车与天然气车特征.在排放治理与源解析工作中,应注意替代燃料的使用与机动车老化过程所造成的排放因子与同位素特征值的变化影响.     

Gaseous emissions from compressed natural gas buses in urban road and highway tests in China

The natural gas vehicle market is rapidly developing throughout the world, and the majority of such vehicles operate on compressed natural gas(CNG). However, most studies on the emission characteristics of CNG vehicles rely on laboratory chassis dynamometer measurements, which do not accurately represent actual road driving conditions. To further investigate the emission characteristics of CNG vehicles, two CNG city buses and two CNG coaches were tested on public urban roads and highway sections. Our results show that when speeds of 0–10 km/hr were increased to 10–20 km/hr, the CO_2, CO, nitrogen oxide(NO_x), and total hydrocarbon(THC) emission factors decreased by(71.6 ± 4.3)%,(65.6 ± 9.5)%,(64.9 ± 9.2)% and(67.8 ± 0.3)%, respectively. In this study, The Beijing city buses with stricter emission standards(Euro Ⅳ) did not have lower emission factors than the Chongqing coaches with Euro Ⅱ emission standards. Both the higher emission factors at 0–10 km/hr speeds and the higher percentage of driving in the low-speed regime during the entire road cycle may have contributed to the higher CO_2 and CO emission factors of these city buses. Additionally, compared with the emission factors produced in the urban road tests, the CO emission factors of the CNG buses in highway tests decreased the most(by 83.2%), followed by the THC emission factors, which decreased by 67.1%.     

汽油车技术发展对尾气排放影响研究进展

近年来,汽油车尾气排放已成为城市大气污染的主要来源之一.为减少油耗、温室气体和大气污染物的排放,汽油直喷技术(GDI)、醇类燃料替代以及混合动力系统等新兴技术被应用到汽车产品中,该研究对GDI发动机汽车、醇类燃料车和混合动力车的颗粒物(PM)、氮氧化物(NO_x)、总碳氢化合物(THC)的排放研究进行梳理和总结,综合评估先进动力技术和醇类燃料的环境影响.结果表明:GDI汽油车的PM排放因子为进气道喷射(PFI)汽油车的1.2~5倍,加装汽油颗粒物捕集器(GPF)后GDI汽油车的PM排放大幅下降,同时具备催化能力的GPF可减少NO_x和THC排放.与汽油车相比,乙醇燃料车PM排放量减少了35%~56%,尾气THC排放减少了10%~44%,但挥发性有机物(VOCs)蒸发排放增加了20%~41%,其主要来自于日呼吸损失.各类型车辆的NO_x排放差异较小,比较结果存在一定的不确定性.混合动力车相比传统内燃机汽车污染物减排优势明显,可积极推广其在公共交通和私家车队中的应用.建议今后研究应着重关注以下几个方面:①GDI和混合动力车在实际条件下排放污染物的环境影响;②醇类燃料车VOCs蒸发排放控制技术及相关法规标准的完善;③新兴技术汽油车排放污染物的生成机理及其影响因素.      

城市间PM2.5源的碳成分谱比较

为了解我国不同城市PM_2.5源的碳成分谱特征和地域差异,采集沈阳市、十堰市和乌鲁木齐市的燃煤源、柴油车尾气源、汽油车尾气源和餐饮源样品,使用热光透射法分析PM_2.5中的总碳（TC）、有机碳（OC）和元素碳（EC）,以及细分的8种碳组分（OC1,OC2,OC3,OC4,EC1,EC2,EC3和OPC_T）,构建各类污染源碳成分谱.结果表明：3个城市4类源TC/PM_2.5从高到低分别为：餐饮源（65.1%±8.4%）、柴油车尾气源（46.2%±9.5%）、汽油车尾气源（37.7%±3.5%）和燃煤源（17.3%±8.0%）;OC/TC在餐饮源中最高（98.0%±0.5%）,EC/TC在柴油车尾气源中最高（38.6%±8.5%）.3个城市同类源的碳组分含量受污染源细分后的不同类型影响有一定差异,但归一化处理后总体仍表现为燃煤源中OC2（14%~30%）和OC3（13%~23%）含量最高,柴油车尾气源中EC2（22%~56%）含量最高,汽油车尾气源中OC2（24%~41%）、OC1（16%~42%）和OC3（12%~26%）含量最高,餐饮源中OC2（21%~43%）和OC3（23%~49%）含量最高.不同污染源的OC/EC值为燃煤源在0.4~7.6之间,柴油车尾气源在0.2~5.6之间,汽油车尾气源在1.1~38.5之间,餐饮源在6.4~170.2之间.分歧系数结果显示3个城市不同源的碳成分谱具有差异性,同类源的碳成分谱具有相似性.将3个城市同类源碳成分谱合并后利用化学质量平衡灵敏度矩阵得到OC2,OC3,OC4,EC1和OPC_T可共同作为燃煤源的标识组分;EC2是柴油车尾气源的标识组分;OC1,OC2和OC3可共同作为汽油车尾气源的标识组分;OC2和OC3可共同作为餐饮源的标识组分.沈阳市、十堰市和乌鲁木齐市相同污染源相似的碳成分谱和一致的标识碳组分可为国内其他城市相关研究提供数据参考.     

Development and demonstration of fuel cell vehicles and supporting infrastructure in China

The demand for urban transportation in China, including cars, motorbikes, buses, and trains, is growing substantially. China’s transportation fleet is projected to expand from 16 to 94 million vehicles between 2000 and 2020, with liquid and electricity transport fuel demand growing from about 5 Quadrillion British Thermal Units (Quads) to over 20 Quads in 2035. In response to energy security, economic growth and environmental protection needs, Chinese government agencies, academia and the private sector have organized their programs and investments to advance development and demonstration of sustainable alternative transportation systems. This analysis surveys historic development of fuel cell vehicle (FCV) including fuel cell buses (FCB) technology in China, summarizes recent efforts to scale-up FCV development and associated infrastructure in major Chinese cities, and briefly addresses future directions in Chinese fuel cell and hydrogen energy technology development. Since the late 1990’s, Chinese universities, government institutions and the private sector have implemented research, development, demonstration and deployment programs for electric (EV), fuel cell (FCV), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV). These efforts have advanced the feasibility of FCVs to be a part of sustainable urban transportation system, including technical performance, infrastructure, and customer acceptance. Three generations of FCVs, START I, START II and START III have been developed, demonstrated and deployed. Similarly, several generations of FCBs have been developed and demonstrated. Collectively, these efforts have demonstrated and deployed over 1,000 FCBs and FCVs in several Chinese cities. Large-scale, intensive-use FCV and FCB demonstration trials, including those during the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the 2010 Shanghai World Exposition (EXPO), have been successfully built and operated. Infrastructure, such as hydrogen production facilities, fuelling stations, and maintenance stations have been constructed and operated to support the fleets of FCBs and FCVs. Experiences learned from these FCV research, development, and demonstration activities are the foundation for scaling up infrastructure and fleet trials in a growing number of cities in eastern and western China. An aggressive research and development vision and 2020 technology performance targets provide a foundation for the next generation of EVs, FCVs and HEVs, and, options for China’s efforts to develop a portfolio of sustainable transportation systems.     

北京市秋冬季环流型下的细颗粒物传输

利用Models-3/CMAQ模式系统对北京市2013~2018年秋冬季（即当年11、12月和次年1、2月份）细颗粒物（PM_2.5）进行模拟,计算北京周边4个截面的PM_2.5传输通量,结合流场、浓度的分析,总结11种大气环流型下北京市的PM_2.5传输特征.污染严重的西南（SW）和西（W）环流型下,北京地区受强烈的PM_2.5传输作用,0.6km以下南部平原的输入产生了非常强的输入累积作用,加重了北京地区PM_2.5的污染程度.污染严重的南（S）环流型下,0.6km以下东部平原和0.6km以上南部平原的输入都产生了较强的输入累积作用,京津冀东部和南部地区的污染物通过不同高度范围传输影响北京地区的PM_2.5水平.污染同样严重的均压（UM）和气旋（C）环流型下,各方向的传输都没有产生明显的输入累积作用,本地排放的削减对于污染的控制尤为重要.污染中等的东（E）、东南（SE）环流型下,北京地区在近地层（0.2km以下）通过南部平原截面对保定等城市有较大的输出通量,对北京污染具有较强的输出消散作用.污染轻的北（N）、东北（NE）和西北（NW）环流型下,北京地区在1km以下通过东部平原截面对廊坊、天津等城市有很大的输出通量,对北京污染具有很强的输出消散作用.污染轻的A环流型下,北京地区没有明显的PM_2.5输入输出现象.     

上海市机动车排污状况与污染控制战略

通过对上海市中心城区机动车行驶工史现状的主要特点及发展趋势的分析，计算出中心城区１９９５年机动车尾气排放的ＣＯ、ＮＭＨＣ和ＮＯｘ负荷，分别占区域内机动车和固定源产排放总量的７６％、９３％和４４％，据预测，到２０１０年，中心城区内机动车排出的ＣＯ、ＮＭＨＣ和ＮＯｘ负荷，将分别占区域中机动车和固定源排放总量的９４％、９８％和７５％，因此，针对机动车排污所面临的严峻挑战，需要采取加强机动车检查与维修（Ｉ     

车用汽油及含氧燃料的环境效应

基于7辆国6轻型车的WLTC循环测试,计算了汽油?E10和MTBE10(汽油中添加10％体积的甲基叔丁基醚)排放的温室气体的致暖效应(GWP)、臭氧生成潜势(OFP)和非甲烷有机气体(NMOG)排放.结果表明,车队平均N2O和CH4排放的GWP分别为0.6和0.07g CO2e/km.E10和MTBE10的非CO2温室...