China-Indian Silk Trade： Current Production and Future Prospects

As an important traditional labor-intensive industry of both India and China, the cocoon silk industry has long made great contributions to the ecological environment protection, rural economic development and the increase in export income of both countries. India is not only a very important cocoon silk trading partner, but an important production competitor of China. In recent years, there has been a large increase in the production and trade of the cocoon silk between China and India; however, China relies heavily on Indian market, which leads to a tendency of further deterioration in the silk trade environment between both countries. The present article makes an empirical study of the cocoon silk resources of the two countries and the scale, product mix and market structure of China-Indian silk trade from 2001 to 2007. Overall silk trading volumes from China to India and market concentration rate are on the increase because of the superiority of Chinese cocoon silk production over that of India. Owing to scattered market share and export that mainly focused on raw materials product, there has been a phenomenon of price reduction and quantity increase. India carries out fierce competition with China in the international market and even imposes antidumping sanction on Chinese silk, which are key factors restricting further increase between China-India trade. Based on the abovementioned facts, the authors aim to put forward suggestions for steadily developing the production and trade of China＇s silk.     

贸易隐含污染物测算及结构绿色转型研究

该文根据中国2002年和2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAP Version 7.0的CO2排放强度等数据,利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含污染物,分析了贸易隐含污染物的行业结构分布以及在主要贸易伙伴国中的贸易流向,并通过结构分解方法分析了出口规模总量、出口结构变化、投入产出表中间结构变化及单位产值CO2排放量四大因素对出口贸易隐含CO2的贡献。研究结果表明:2002-2007年间,我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差,同时也带来了大量隐含CO2、SO2顺差,2002年和2007年贸易隐含CO2顺差达6.21×108t和1.38×109t。2002年和2007年贸易隐含SO2顺差分别为323.99万t和674.54万t;出口贸易规模的扩大使我国出口贸易隐含CO2大幅增加,带来了巨大的环境压力,且出口贸易结构、投入产出中间结构变化也增加了出口贸易隐含CO2的排放。但是单位产值的CO2排放量的降低对抑制隐含CO2增长值发挥了十分重要作用,故需要进一步优化贸易结构,调整产业结构,提高能源利用效率,也就是贸易结构绿色转型势在必行。     

Water pollution footprints induced by industrial import and export in China

With the rapid development of foreign trade in China, industrial import and export has been an absolute subject in recent years. The huge trade surplus of import and export trade of industrial products brings not only high profits, but also pollution costs as well. Based on the concept of water pollution footprints (WPFs), this study applies the input-output method and calculates pollutant-producing coefficients of 20 major industrial sectors in China and investigates the WPFs caused by the import and export trades of these industrial sectors. The research results show that WPF resulting from exports exceeds that of imports from 2011 to 2015 in China. The net inflow of pollution footprint is mainly from paper mills, printing and stationery manufacturing, and textile industry; whereas a great number of WPFs are transferred to other countries by these sectors, such as metal mining and dressing industry and oil and natural gas exploitation industry.     

中国碳价格对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的影响研究

总量控制下的碳市场在减少温室气体排放的同时,会增加企业的碳排放成本,进而可能降低企业的贸易竞争力。本文选择全国碳市场覆盖的6个能源密集型和贸易暴露型行业,以行业贸易竞争力指数、行业出口值和出口竞争力指数作为贸易竞争力的衡量指标,研究了碳价格对它们贸易竞争力的影响。由于缺乏全国碳价格数据,本文选用能源成本作为碳价格的代理变量,先研究能源成本对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的影响,通过碳价格向能源成本的映射关系,再研究碳价格对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的影响。首先,本文设定(对数)线性模型,研究了行业能源成本对行业贸易竞争力的影响。结果显示,行业能源成本每提升100元,行业贸易竞争力指数约下降0.0136;行业能源成本每提升100%,行业出口值和行业出口竞争力指数分别下降约22.97%和12.26%。然后,本文研究了行业能源消费和二氧化碳排放之间的关系,建立碳价格向行业能源成本的映射。由于短期内行业能源消费结构比较稳定,每消费1单位能源,行业排放二氧化碳的量就相对固定,但又因行业间的能源结构存在差异,相同的碳价格映射到各行业的能源成本也就不同。之后,本文构建存在全国碳价格的反事实情景,通过映射关系研究了不同水平碳价格对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的边际影响和累积影响。结果显示,碳价格对覆盖行业的贸易竞争力的边际影响递减。由于行业能源成本、映射系数及出口规模的不同,碳价格对覆盖行业出口值的影响规模存在一定的差异。最后,本文根据研究结果提出相关政策建议。     

Empirical analysis of carbon tariff’s effect on the export structure of China’s manufacturing industry and social welfare based on the GTAP model

In recent years, carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one. Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries, and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries, it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries. Concentrated on the manufacturing industry, which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China’s export structure, this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade. First, by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model, it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China’s manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China’s manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax. Furthermore, with the application of the GTAP model, it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China’s manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways, and then analyzes the influence on China’s manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well. The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China’s export price and export volume, and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China. However, the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff. In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China’s energy-intensive industries, such as chemical rubber products, oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry, whose export would be reduced, the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest, which will decrease the paper industry’s export ranging from 1.79% to 6.05%, whereas the other industries’ export will increase. Anyhow, it will promote China’s manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent. In addition, it will lead to a decrease in China’s welfare, with a decrease between $2.134 billion and $8.347 billion. Finally, this paper provides information on international coordination, export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China’s manufacturing industry.     

碳关税对中国出口贸易的影响及应对策略

碳关税是美国提出的针对国际贸易中高能耗进口产品征税的一种新型绿色贸易壁垒。从表面上看,碳关税的提出是为了缓解全球气候变暖的现实,促进全球贸易的公平竞争。实质上,碳关税的提出是美国国内政治经济博弈的结果,其目的是为了夺取世界经济新的话语权,同时也是为了制衡中国在内的发展中国家。碳关税对我国出口的影响机制有二:第一,碳关税产生的价格效应促使出口商品成本上升,出口量下降,造成出口国净福利损失。第二,长期来看,碳关税的环境规制效应会促使出口企业实施创新、改进效率,企业竞争力增强。但是,就短期来说,由于我国尚不具备"波特假说"成立的前提条件,碳关税会促使成本上升,出口产品竞争力下降。本文系统分析了我国出口商品结构和地理方向,指出碳关税的推出将对我国当前出口贸易形成严峻的挑战,长期看将有利于我国市场结构、产业结构和出口结构的改善。基于以上的分析,文章提出了政府"环境外交"、逐步开征国内碳税、构建绿色制造体系等政策建议。     

排污权交易条件下古诺市场动态系统的均衡及复杂性研究

目前国内外关于排污权交易方面的研究很多,但是大多数学者在排污权交易的理论研究和实践讨论中忽略了排污权交易对产品市场结构的影响问题.实际上,在中国市场体制并不完善的条件下实施排污权交易制度,有可能导致排污权交易市场以及产品市场的扭曲,必须对此加以研究.文章建立了排污权交易条件下的古诺离散动态系统模型,分析了排污权交易条件下古诺市场动态均衡及其稳定性问题.理论研究和数值模拟的结果表明:当排污权交易价格、厂商调整产量的相对速度、边际污染治理成本以及边际生产成本等参数发生变化时,纳什均衡点失去稳定性,经倍周期分叉后出现混沌状态.厂商调整产量的相对速度越慢,厂商的利润越稳定;厂商的边际生产成本、边际污染治理成本、污染排放系数以及排污权交易价格等参数越大,厂商要承受的风险也就越大,厂商对产量的调整余地也越小,厂商的利润相对稳定.     

中国种植业产品贸易自由化对环境影响的计量经济分析

入世后．中国将根据WTO的要求对农业贸易相关政策进行调整和改革，这将改变国内农业生产，进而影响到农村生态环境。在此背景下．本文首先界定了种檀业产品贸易自由化的涵义．并对其环境影响途径进行分析．然后利用计量经济方法着重分析了贸易自由化对国内种植业生产中化肥、农药使用的影响。研究结果表明，在种植业产品的贸易自由化中，进口渗透作用对缓解国内化肥、农药污染影响显着．而出口导向作用影响不明显。文章最后给出了减缓农产品贸易自由化的不利影响，发挥其有利影响的政策建议。     

通过可持续认证推动农林牧渔领域自然资源保护

1992年里约环境发展大会后可持续发展成为各国和各界的共识,但经历了二十年的发展,自然资源保护与可持续发展之间的矛盾仍然存在,特别是农林牧渔等领域自然资源的合理开发利用仍待进一步发展。我国作为国际农林牧渔产品的重要消费国和贸易国,在积极推动国内资源的可持续利用同时,也可以通过国际贸易在全球自然资源可持续利用中发挥积极作用。可持续认证作为应对资源保护与经济发展这一矛盾的较为有效的市场手段,经过近二十年的发展已经涵盖了农林牧渔领域的多个产品,在国际上的发展势头强劲,对于自然资源的保护和可持续利用发挥了对政府政策的补充作用。但可持续性认证在我国国内的企业和消费者中还没有得到广泛认识,其通过市场机制引导企业实践可持续经营、落实企业社会责任的作用在国内还没有得到有效的发挥。因此,本研究的目的是通过对可持续认证的分析,为在我国农林牧渔领域更好地发挥其市场推动力提出政策建议。本研究首先综述了可持续认证在国际上的发展历程、产生的影响,详细论述了森林、棕榈油、野生海产品等可持续认证已经在全球贸易中占有一席之地,并在欧美等较发达国家和地区获得了消费者的支持;其次,本研究对可持续认证在农林牧渔领域的进一步发展所面临的挑战进行了剖析,肯定了可持续认证在调动企业和消费者的积极性、推动农林牧渔领域资源保护方面的正面作用,也指出认证对资源保护的预期效果没有完全达到、同一产业内认证体系可靠性参差不齐,着重强调了可持续认证在发展中国家的发展面临的困难,使其对自然资源保护的应有效果受到影响。在此基础上,本研究分析了我国农林牧渔领域在资源利用方面面临的国际和国内压力,尤其是我国在国际贸易中举足轻重的地位和进口大宗产品产地的生态脆弱性使中国在全球资源的可持续利用和保护中可以发挥重要作用,论证了可持续认证在我国的推广有利于提升中国企业的国际形象、促进贸易杠杆发挥资源保护的撬动作用、保障企业在海外开发中的长期效益,同时也有利于我国国内自然资源的可持续利用,明确得出在我国农林牧渔领域推动可持续认证的必要性。本研究建议我国政府部门应关注农林牧渔领域可持续认证在国际和国内的发展,收集相关的信息和案例可用于相关的国际谈判和对企业的指导。同时政府应鼓励国内外认证体系在中国开展认证工作,并为同一产业中的不同体系创造公平的竞争环境。另外,政府应积极支持国内农林牧渔产业的企业、专家、协会等参与到国际认证体系的建立过程中,将中国可持续发展的良好操作范例或规范国际化。政府自身的消费行为对全社会有明确的引导作用,所以在政府采购中应优选可持续认证产品,引导企业加入可持续经营的实践。     

经济增长、国际贸易与污染排放的关系研究——基于美国和中国SO2排放的实证分析

在世界经济一体化进程中,国际贸易成为影响各国环境污染变化的重要因素,将其纳入经济增长与环境污染间关系的分析框架是环境学界关注的一个重要问题。本文基于联立方程模型,从经济产出、污染排放、污染治理和国际贸易等四个方面探讨了经济增长与污染排放的相互作用机理,并以美国、中国SO2排放为例进行了实证研究。结果表明:污染排放对经济产出有影响,且对美国和中国分别为正作用和负作用。经济增长增加了两国国内污染排放,且中国增加的相对更多。而污染治理均减少了国内污染排放,美、中的污染减排弹性系数分别为-0.277和-0.417。国际贸易对美国起到污染减排作用,对中国的影响不显著,考虑到贸易对中国经济增长的拉动作用,其经济规模间接污染效应不容忽视。对于中国而言,加大污染治理投资、改善贸易进出口状况、降低经济发展过程中的污染排放是实现经济与环境协调发展的有效途径。     

Carbon trading thickness and market efficiency in a socialist market economy

Unlike the European Union emission trade system (EU ETS), China’s pilot ETSs implemented diversified policy designs instead of using a uniform framework. Variance ratio test is used to evaluate the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in China’s carbon trading markets. The results of two versions of variance ratio tests indicate that the carbon trading market in Hubei is considered weak form efficient, and the socialist market economy does not necessarily lead to market inefficiency in carbon trading markets. Thin trading activities generate market frictions and bias the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) tests.     

Carbon emissions of china’s industrial sectors based on input–output analysis

This study uses an input–output model presenting the embodied carbon emission in the import–export procedure, as well as the responsibility allocation between China’s 35 sectors and 7 main trade partners from 1995 to 2011. Results indicate that the amount of carbon emissions in China’s industrial sectors is immense and that the industrial sectors are in serious imbalance. Such imbalance exists mainly in textiles, basic and fabricated metal, electrical and optical equipment, and machinery, among others. Based on the consumer-responsibility principle, the responsibility of 29 departments is reduced. Correspondingly, foreign sectors become more responsible. America, as China’s largest trading partner, should account for most of the total responsibility, followed by developed countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Germany.     

Research on carbon emissions in China's export trade based on input-output model

Becoming the world’s largest emitter of carbon makes China the object of criticism;however,people may ignore the fact that when China exports low-carbon products,the carbon emissions have been left in the meanwhile,forming the so-called"embodied carbon".Using the input-output model,this paper analyzes the carbon emission intensity and amount of embodied carbon of various sectors in China’s export trade in 2002 and 2007,and filters out high carbon emission sectors.In addition,this paper also points out the problem of carbon emissions’international transfer from developed countries to China through the analysis of national and regional flow of export carbon emissions and changing of the proportion of emissions for exports relative to total emissions,and explains the reason that caused carbon transfer to China by using the treadmill of production theory.Based on that,this paper proposes some measures for carbon reduction in China from the foreign trade perspective.     

中国碳减排承诺解读及碳交易发展研究

中国政府2009年末温室气体减排承诺的宣布,哥本哈根会议的召开,使得节能减排和碳交易问题成为大众关注的焦点。解读了中国的减排承诺,回顾了排污权交易和碳交易的发展,分析了排污权交易和碳交易面临的问题,并展望了国内碳交易市场的发展。认为中国现在制定的碳减排标准减少的是碳排放的增量,既是环境问题又是经济问题,今后减排目标会进一步细化。通过与发达国家相对成熟的碳市场对比,认为建立有效运营的国内碳交易市场的当务之急是抓紧交易配套资源的建设,如能耗监测系统、配套法律、相关人才培养等,使碳交易平台专业化,以主动掌握碳定价权。碳市场展望方面,认为国内碳市场有望随着各行业、地区减排目标的设定而逐步形成和发展     

China＇s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up, China＇s export trade has maintained a rapid growth; meanwhile, China＇s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. ＂High export and high energy consumption＂ has become the feature of China＇s trade and economic development. In this paper, based on the input-output analysis approach, the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors. The results show that, China is a big net exporter of embodied energy. Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%, the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years, and based on the input-output data of 2005, by 2030 China＇s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production, which is obviously infeasible. As a country of very low per capita en- ergy, China must change its export pattern, encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity, and promote structural change of energy- efficient exported products, so as to achieve the sustainable development. Accordingly, the authors put forward some suggestions.     

China’s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up,China’s export trade has maintained a rapid growth;meanwhile,China’s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. "High export and high energy consumption" has become the feature of China’s trade and economic development.In this paper,based on the input-output analysis approach,the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors.The results show that,China is a big net exporter of embodied energy.Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%,the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years,and based on the input-output data of 2005,by 2030 China’s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production,which is obviously infeasible.As a country of very low per capita energy,China must change its export pattern,encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity,and promote structural change of energy-efficient exported products,so as to achieve the sustainable development.Accordingly,the authors put forward some suggestions.     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

Abstract

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%–6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%–1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6–73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encouraged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

China’s Export Expansion,Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up, China’s export trade has maintained a rapid growth; meanwhile, China’s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. “High export and high energy consumption” has become the feature of China’s trade and economic development. In this paper, based on the input–output analysis approach, the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors. The results show that, China is a big net exporter of embodied energy. Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%, the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years, and based on the input–output data of 2005, by 2030 China’s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production, which is obviously infeasible. As a country of very low per capita energy, China must change its export pattern, encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity, and promote structural change of energy– efficient exported products, so as to achieve the sustainable development. Accordingly, the authors put forward some suggestions.     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%-6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%-1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6-73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encour-aged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

International trade,carbon leakage,and CO2 emissions of manufacturing industry

Foreign trade drives China’s growth,but as the trade scale continues to expand,the carbon emissions also increase quickly.Based on the industry panel data from 1996 to 2010,this paper calculates carbon emissions of 27manufacturing industries.According to the intensity of carbon emissions,this paper divides the manufacturing sectors into low carbon and high carbon manufacturing industry and then analyzes the carbon emission trends.Next,the paper uses the feasible generalized least square regression to verify the existence of environmental Kuznets curve（EKC）of the manufacturing industry’s carbon.In order to investigate the carbon leakage problem,the regression also includes the interaction term between trade and industrial value added.Our findings are as follows:the carbon emissions of the whole manufacturing industry and low carbon manufacturing industry accord with the EKC curve,but have a linear relationship with the high carbon manufacturing industry;trade reduces the carbon emissions of the whole manufacturing industry and low carbon manufacturing industry,but it increases those of the high carbon manufacturing industry;for the whole manufacturing industry and low carbon manufacturing industry,there is no carbon leakage,but it exists in the high carbon manufacturing industry.On the whole,pollution haven hypothesis does not hold up in China,and China does not need to limit industry foreign trade to reduce the emission of CO₂.But the manufacturing industry will still be the main engine of the economic growth,and therefore our country should make an effective low-carbon policy,introduce advanced technology,increase R&D investment into lowcarbon technologies,and upgrade and transform the original equipment to change the backward mode of production.