系统动力学应用于中国区域绿色发展政策仿真的方法学综述

绿色发展是我国"十三五"时期五大发展理念之一,是解决我国发展与保护矛盾的根本途径。系统动力学是模拟宏观社会经济发展趋势和政策效力的常用分析工具,本文对系统动力学在中国区域绿色发展政策仿真中的应用进行了梳理。研究显示:系统动力学应用的区域范围方面,该方法全面应用于从国家直至县域等各个尺度的区域绿色发展研究,区域绿色发展通常被分解为经济、社会、资源、环境等子系统;应用的主要领域方面,水土资源、能源、水环境、固废治理、绿色产业等领域应用较多,大气环境、绿色消费等领域应用相对较少;方法的改进和完善方面,软系统分析法、各类优化方法和地理信息系统与系统动力学的集成应用日益普遍。文末根据文献梳理情况,提出未来应在决策变量设计、历史数据挖掘、环境系统对经济系统的反馈等方面进行方法改进。     

Institutional Constraints on Cost‐Effective Water Management: Selenium Contamination in Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Valley

Ground and surface water selenium (Se) contamination is problematic throughout the world, leading to harmful impacts on aquatic life, wildlife, livestock, and humans. A groundwater reactive transport model was applied to a regional‐scale irrigated groundwater system in the Lower Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado to identify management practices that remediate Se contamination. The system has levels of surface water and groundwater Se concentrations exceeding the respective chronic standard and guidelines. We evaluate potential solutions by combining the transport model with an assessment of the cost to employ those practices. We use a framework common in economics and engineering fields alike, the Pareto frontier, to show the impact of four different best management practices on the tradeoffs between Se and cost objectives. We then extend that analysis to include institutional constraints that affect the economic feasibility associated with each practice. Results indicate that although water‐reducing strategies have the greatest impact on Se, they are the hardest for farmers to implement given constraints common to western water rights institutions. Therefore, our analysis shows that estimating economic and environmental tradeoffs, as is typically done with a Pareto frontier, will not provide an accurate picture of choices available to farmers where institutional constraints should also be considered.     

Does the Temporal Resolution of Precipitation Input Influence the Simulated Hydrological Components Employing the SWAT Model?

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of sub‐daily precipitation time steps on model performance and hydrological components by applying the Green and Ampt infiltration method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Precipitation was measured at a resolution of 0.1 mm and aggregated to 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐min time steps. Daily discharge data over a 10‐year period were used to calibrate and validate the model. Following a global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters were optimized through an automatic calibration procedure using SWAT‐CUP for each time step. Daily performance statistics were almost equal among all four time steps (NSE ≈ 0.47). Discharge mainly consisted of groundwater flow (55%) and tile flow (42%), in reasonable proportions for the investigated catchment. In conclusion, model outputs were almost identical, showing simulations responded nearly independently of the chosen precipitation time step. This held true for (1) the selection of sensitive parameters, (2) performance statistics, (3) the shape of the hydrographs, and (4) flow components. However, a scenario analysis revealed that the precipitation time step becomes important when saturated hydraulic conductivities are low and curve numbers are high. The study suggests that there is no need in using precipitation time steps <1 h for lowland catchments dominated by soils with a low surface runoff potential if daily flow values are being considered. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

强风中高速列车安全性研究

选用某国产动车1∶1模型,对高速列车在不同的侧风速度和风向角作用下运行进行模拟计算,得到列车所受气动力变化情况,研究气动力随风向角的变化机理。模拟结果表明,该车型在不同强度和不同风向角侧风作用下,侧向力、升力和倾覆力矩均随着侧风作用的增强而显著增大,在强侧风作用下,头车所受侧向力及倾覆力矩最大,较易发生倾覆事故;而尾车所受侧向力及倾覆力矩最小,相对安全。随风速和风向角的增大,受电弓和转向架对倾覆力矩的贡献均增大,在模拟时不可忽略;在风向角大于5°小于90°的范围内,列车各个部位的气动力与风向角呈3次方关系递增。     

细水雾对障碍物遮挡火源抑制作用的数值研究

以大涡模拟、混合物分数模拟和欧拉-拉格朗日粒子运动描述法为基础,采用火灾动力学软件FDS研究了细水雾对障碍物不同程度遮挡火的抑制作用,通过改变雾滴粒径、喷头操作压力来分析细水雾对不同遮挡情况油池火的抑制灭火作用。结果表明:当火源被障碍物完全遮挡时,操作压力低于1MPa,细水雾很难达到抑制作用,当压力达到4MPa以上时,细水雾能够将温度控制在较低范围内;细水雾粒径小于50μm时,细水雾对障碍物遮挡火有较好的抑制作用;从整体来看,随着细水雾粒径的减小、压力的升高,细水雾对障碍物遮挡火的抑制作用逐渐增强。     

经口摄入土壤多溴联苯醚生物可给性变化及影响因素的体外消化模拟

误食土壤是污染物(如多溴联苯醚)人体(主要是儿童)暴露的重要途径,人体消化道内污染物吸收的生物可给性是针对此种暴露方式进行定量风险评估的有效途径之一.本研究采用体外消化实验模拟3种不同有机碳含量的天然土壤中典型多溴联苯醚(BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153)在胃和小肠消化液中的释放,验证部分消化释放的多溴联苯醚因消化残留固相表面的再吸附造成低估实际生物可给性,并通过不同水土比的拟合计算予以校正.结果表明,校正后的消化率普遍高于校正前;就不同土样而言,BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153在不同初始暴露浓度条件下平均提升比例范围分别为14.3%~42.3%、11.1%~32.1%、4.9%~12.3%和0.0%~7.7%.因此,未经校正的消化率会显著低估PBDEs消化道内的生物可给性,尤其是低溴代组分及PBDEs初始浓度较高或高TOC含量的土样.校正后BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153的消化率分别维持在21.9%~54.7%、18.8%~43.1%、13.4%~27.2%和9.3%~19.9%.此外,PBDEs的消化率与其辛醇-水分配系数的对数lg KOW呈显著负相关;而与土壤TOC含量及PBDEs初始暴露浓度的相关性并不显著,尤其是高溴代组分.     

Mitigation of eutrophication caused by wastewater discharge: A simulation-based approach

Mitigation of eutrophication, intensified by excessive nutrient load discharge in wastewaters regulated by restrictive legal requirements, remains one of today’s most important global problems. Despite implementation of the Water Framework Directive, the Urban Wastewater Directive and the HELCOM recommendations, the actual condition of surface water is still not satisfactory. In response to the above, the study presents an alternative approach for surface water protection against eutrophication based on the selection of appropriate nutrient removal technologies. An activated sludge model simulation was used to enable the identification of environmentally justified nutrient removal systems with lowest eutrophication potential of treated wastewater conditioned by bioavailable nutrient forms content. Based on the outcome of the study, the 3-stage Bardenpho system was identified as the most efficient for bioavailable phosphorus removal, while the Johannesburg system proved to have the highest efficiency for bioavailable nitrogen removal. The proposed eutrophication mitigation approach underlines the need for a reconsideration of current legal regulations which ignore nutrient bioavailability and key eutrophication limiting factors.     

AAO工艺低氧条件下的运行及其模拟

利用厌氧-缺氧-好氧(AAO)工艺探讨了在好氧池低溶解氧(DO)浓度条件下的水质指标变化情况.结果表明,当好氧池DO浓度从2.00 mg·L~(-1)降低到1.00 mg·L~(-1)和0.50 mg·L~(-1)时,系统仍然具有良好的除磷脱氮效果,出水水质指标均满足我国《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB 18918-2002)中的一级A标准.在此基础上,基于Bio Win 4.1软件建立了AAO工艺的活性污泥模型,对模型参数进行了灵敏度分析,并利用动态模拟对模型参数中的聚磷菌吸收乙酸或丙酸的聚羟基烷酸(PHA)产率系数(YP/PHA,seq)、聚磷菌好氧氧化PHA的储磷率(YP/PHA,aerobic)、氨氧化菌的最大单位生长速率(μmax,A)和亚硝酸盐氧化菌的最大单位生长速率(μmax,N)进行了校验.此外,对系统的曝气能耗进行了模拟评估,结果表明,与好氧池DO浓度为2.00 mg·L~(-1)时相比,好氧池DO浓度为1.00 mg·L~(-1)和0.50 mg·L~(-1)时的空气流量可分别节省23.8%和38.1%,氧转移效率可分别提高7.2%和11.7%.     

燃煤电厂烟塔合一排烟风洞试验与数值模拟对比分析

近年来,燃煤电厂烟塔合一烟气排烟对近距离环境影响的不确定性,使其在国内的推广过程受到一定限制。准确判断烟塔合一排烟的环境影响,对于我国现有燃煤电厂烟气污染物的排放有着巨大的工程价值和明显的现实意义。利用国家环境保护某重点实验室中风洞试验平台,对燃煤电厂烟塔合一烟气污染物在近距离的扩散和传输行为,进行物理风洞试验以及数值模拟计算,并进行对比分析。结果表明:德国Austal2000模式的浓度预测并不精确;数值风洞也有其差异性,而物理风洞的结果在很大程度上符合现有的理论及国内工程实际。     

多相流中细长颗粒数值模拟研究综述

纤维干燥尾气中的飞灰含有大量的木质纤维、砂光粉和其他粉尘。从形状来看,木质纤维属细长颗粒,和研究较为成熟的球形颗粒在许多方面存在较多差异。目前,国内外学者们已对细长颗粒在多相流中的悬浮、沉降及流化方面开展了大量数值模拟研究,取得了一定的进展;在此基础上,继续完善木质纤维的运动特征、推导出其在换热器表面的碰撞沉积模型是下一步的主要工作。