A new baseline model for estimating willingness to pay from discrete choice models

We show a substantive problem exists with the widely-used ratio of coefficients approach to calculating willingness to pay (WTP) from discrete choice models. The correctly calculated standard error for WTP using this approach is shown to be undefined. This occurs because the cost parameter's standard error implies some possibility the true parameter value is arbitrarily close to zero. We propose a simple yet elegant way to overcome this problem by reparameterizing the (negative) cost variable's coefficient using an exponential transformation to enforce the theoretically correct positive coefficient. With it the confidence interval for WTP is now finite and well behaved.     

Bioconcentration and half-life of quinalphos pesticide in rice-fish integration system in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

In order to determine the distribution and enable the elimination of quinalphos, a popular active pesticide compound used in the Mekong Delta, an experiment was set up in a rice-fish integration system in Can Tho City, Vietnam. Fish was stocked into the field when the rice was two-months old. Quinalphos was applied twice in doses of 42.5 g per 1000 m². Water, fish and sediment samples were collected at time intervals and analyzed by a Gas Chromatography Electron Capture Detector system. The results show that quinalphos residues in fish muscles were much higher than those of the water and the bioconcentration factor (logBCF) was above 2 for the fish. The half-life of first and second quinalphos applications were 12.2 and 11.1 days for sediment, 2.5 and 1.1 days for silver barb, 1.9 and 1.3 days for common carp, and 1.1 and 1.0 days for water, respectively.     

泛长江三角洲地区经济发展与生态环境耦合协调关系分析

以泛长三角地区41个地级市以上的政区为例,运用改进熵值法计算经济发展及生态环境系统的综合得分,并运用耦合协调模型分析1999~2013年两系统的耦合协调度及其演变,最后通过经济发展与生态环境系统得分排名划分4种类型,提出未来泛长江三角洲经济发展分类指导建议。研究结果表明:(1)1999~2013年泛长三角地区经济发展与生态环境的耦合度C∈[0.5,0.8],整体位于磨合阶段;而系统协调度D∈[0.3,0.5],整体属于中度耦合协调;(2)1999~2013年泛长三角经济发展与生态环境系统耦合协调度呈现上升态势,但经济发展与生态环境系统综合评价值仍表现负相关的特征;(3)未来苏南地区、皖江地区、杭甬地区需要进一步调整产业分布结构,提升城市经济发展环境;而苏北地区、皖西地区、浙西南地区需要进一步增加城市经济发展的软、硬实力各种要素的投入,并将城市生态环境优势转化为经济增长优势。     

云南大气降水中δ18O与气象要素及水汽来源之间的关系

根据云南昆明、腾冲、蒙自三个地区在2009 年1 月至2011 年12 月3 a 间收集的大气降水以及相关气象要素资料,结合欧洲中期数值预报中心以及NCEP/NCAR提供的再分析资料,研究了天气尺度下三个地区大气降水中δ¹⁸O与降水量、温度、水汽压等气象要素之间的关系,并分析了δ¹⁸O与高空各气压层（800、700、500、300 hPa）风速的相关关系。结果表明：在天气尺度下,三个地区大气降水中δ¹⁸O与降水量、温度、水汽压均存在显著的负相关,表明三个地区大气降水中δ¹⁸O的变化具有显著的降水量效应、反温度效应以及湿度效应;同时,高空各气压层风速与δ¹⁸O之间存在正相关关系,表明高空风速也是影响大气降水中δ¹⁸O变化的一个重要因素。通过拉格朗日后向轨迹模型HYSPLIT 4.8 追踪三个地区水汽输送轨迹发现,三个地区大气降水的水汽来源基本一致,表明三地处在同一条水汽通道上。在湿季降水期间（5-9 月）,水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾、阿拉伯海以及南海等海域,降水中δ¹⁸O偏低;而在干季降水期间（10 月-翌年4月）,水汽主要来源于西风带携带的内陆水汽以及局地水汽再循环,降水中δ¹⁸O偏高。     

Effect of tracer dyes on initial deposits and persistence of bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki toxin after application of two commercial formulations onto spruce trees

Abstract

The effect of two tracer dyes [Erio Acid Red (EAR) and Acid Black 48 (AB‐48)] on initial deposits and persistence of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki (Btk) toxin (delta‐endotoxin) was studied after spraying two commercial formulations, Foray® 48B and Foray® 76B, over potted white spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss] seedlings, at a dosage rate of 30 billion international units (BIU) per ha. Spray was applied using a spinning disc atomizer calibrated to deliver droplet sizes similar to those utilized in ultra‐low‐volume (ULV) treatments in operational insect control programs. The sprayed seedlings were left outdoors at the Sault Ste. Marie laboratory for 18 days under natural conditions of sunlight, wind and rainfall. Initial deposits and persistence of delta‐endotoxin protein in spruce foliage were determined by immunoassay [enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)] quantification of the delta‐endotoxin. The total protein (inactive plus active) and delta‐endotoxin (active protein) concentrations in the two formulations were determined by a gravimetric procedure and by ELISA respectively.

The initial deposit levels of the toxin on foliage were not markedly affected by the addition of either of the two tracer dyes, and showed only a narrow range of 1521 to 1625 ng/g foliage (fresh weight) for Foray 48B, and 1789 to 2056 ng/g for Foray 76B. However, the persistence of the toxin was significantly influenced by the presence of the dyes. The toxin persisted in foliage only for 7 d post‐spray When the EAR dye was added to Foray 48B, compared to 10 d when no dye was added. The average half‐life (DT₅₀) of disappearance was 17.4 h for Foray 48B with EAR, and 20.9 h when no dye was present. In contrast, the situation was reversed in Foray 76B, since the duration of persistence was 10 d when EAR was added to Foray 76B, compared to 7 d when no dye was added. The average DT₅₀ was 27.9 h for Foray 76B with EAR, and 22.2 h without the dye. Persistence was the longest (14 d) when the AB‐48 dye was added to Foray 76B, and the DT₅₀ was 44.9 h.     

土壤中多氯联苯的综合污染指数评价方法研究

借鉴综合污染指数的概念,引入加拿大环境理事会制订的土壤中多氯联苯(PCBs)标准指标.建立了PCBs污染的毒害性分污染指数(TPI)、持久性分污染指数(PPI)和生物累积性分污染指数(BPI)加权计算的综合污染指数(IPI)评价方法以及各污染指数的相关表达式,确定了土壤环境中PCBs的毒害性转换系数(Ti)、持久性转换系数(Pi)和生物累积性转换系数(Bi).利用建立的土壤中PCBs的综合污染指数评价方法定量评价了现代黄河三角洲地区土壤中的PCBs污染现状,22个采样点的PCBs污染的IPI值在1.1-531.7之间,整个现代黄河三角洲地区的PCBs污染现状属轻度污染.该评价体系综合地考虑了PCB8同系物间的环境行为差异,较现有的PCBs总量评价方法更科学合理,在持久有机污染物(POPs)的污染评价方面具有推广价值.     

辽宁双台河口湿地生态安全评价

受人类活动强烈干扰,河口湿地的生态安全问题日益严峻。对湿地生态安全的评价研究应遵循"人—湿地"复合系统思想,文章坚持湿地可持续发展的时空观念,突出人为因素,兼顾自然因素,评价了双台河口湿地生态安全的空间状况,具体探讨了湿地核心地带生态安全的演化机理。结果表明:辽河三角洲地区生态安全水平空间差异较大,西市区、站前区为极不安全,鲅鱼圈区为不安全区,盘山县、双台子区、兴隆台区为临界安全区,老边区、大洼县为较安全区。双台河口湿地核心区所在的大洼地区,近7年来生态安全演变态势较好,由生态临界安全上升为较安全,但仍未达到理想安全状态,与周边县区生态安全等级不高有密切关系。最后提出了双台河口湿地生态安全的对策与建议。     

Spatial-temporal analysis of wetland landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta

The influence of anthropogenic activities,especially artificial dykes,on the coastal wetland landscape is now considered as a serious problem to the coastal ecosystem.It is important and necessary to analyze changes of coastal landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes for the protection and management of coastal wetland.Our study aimed to reveal the quantitative characteristics of the coastal wetland landscape and its spatial-temporal dynamics under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta(YRD).It was analyzed by the methods of the statistical analysis of landscape structure,five selected landscape indices and the changes of spatial centroids of three typical wetland types,including reed marshes,tidal fiats and aquaculture-salt fields.The results showed that:(1)Reduction of wetland area,especially the degradation of natural wetlands,had been the principal problem since the dykes were constructed in the YRD.The dykes created conditions for the development of artificial wetlands.However,the new born artificial wetlands were still less than the vanished natural wetlands.(2)Compared with the open area,the building of artificial dykes significantly speeded up the changes of landscape patterns and the aggravation of the landscape fragmentation in the closed area.(3)The changes of area-weighted centroids of three typical wetland landscapes were greatly affected by dykes,and the movement of the centroid of the aquaculture-salt field was very sensitive to the dykes constructed in the corresponding period.     

Dramatic decline of observed atmospheric CO2 and CH4 during the COVID-19 lockdown over the Yangtze River Delta of China

The temporal variation of greenhouse gas concentrations in China during the COVID-19 lockdown in China is analyzed in this work using high resolution measurements of near surface △CO₂, △CH₄ and △CO concentrations above the background conditions at Lin'an station (LAN), a regional background station in the Yangtze River Delta region. During the pre-lockdown observational period (IOP-1), both △CO₂ and △CH₄ exhibited a significant increasing trend relative to the 2011-2019 climatological mean. The reduction of △CO₂, △CH₄ and △CO during the lockdown observational period (IOP-2) (which also coincided with the Chinese New Year Holiday) reached up to 15.0 ppm, 14.2 ppb and 146.8 ppb, respectively, and a reduction of △CO₂/△CO probably due to a dramatic reduction from industrial emissions. △CO₂, △CH₄ and △CO were observed to keep declining during the post-lockdown easing phase (IOP-3), which is the synthetic result of lower than normal CO₂ emissions from rural regions around LAN coupled with strong uptake of the terrestrial ecosystem. Interestingly, the trend reversed to gradual increase for all species during the later easing phase (IOP-4), with △CO₂/△CO constantly increasing from IOP-2 to IOP-3 and finally IOP-4, consistent with recovery in industrial emissions associated with the staged resumption of economic activity. On average, △CO₂ declined sharply throughout the days during IOP-2 but increased gradually throughout the days during IOP-4. The findings showcase the significant role of emission reduction in accounting for the dramatic changes in measured atmospheric △CO₂ and △CH₄ associated with the COVID-19 lockdown and recovery.     

长江三角洲地表水环境污染规律及调控对策

根据野外实地考察和定点观测数据 ,结合历年环境监测资料 ,初步揭示了长江三角洲地表水环境污染的现状与近十年来的时空演变规律 :河网干流水质基本良好 ,中小河流污染突出 ;城市河流有机污染严重 ,普遍出现水体黑臭现象 ;湖泊氮磷含量逐年增高 ,水体富营养化加剧 ;市郊小城镇河网水质急剧恶化 ,已成为新的水环境污染中心。造成长江三角洲地表水环境污染的主要物源包括工业废水和生活污水、畜禽粪便、农田化肥、底泥等。针对上述污染规律和成因机制 ,提出了相应的调控对策。