Land use/land cover change and their effects on landscape patterns in the Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang (China)

Human modification of land use and land cover change (LUCC) drives the change of landscape patterns and limits the availability of products and services for human and livestock. LUCC can undermine environmental health. Thus, this study aimed to develop an understanding of LUCC in the Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China, an arid area experiencing dramatic water and land resource use. A time series of satellite images (1964, 1973, 1989, 1999, and 2009) were used to calculate the index of landscape patterns to study the processes involved in changes to land uses and landscape patterns and the influence of this changes on landscape patterns. The results show that land uses in the Yanqi Basin have changed dramatically since 1964 with grassland being mainly converted to cropland. Landscape fragmentation and diversity have decreased in the study area, although landscape fragmentation increased from 1964 to 1999 and then decreased by 2009. The index of landscape diversity decreased from 1.64 in 1964 to 0.71 in 2009. The heterogeneity and complexity of the landscape increased during this period. In contrast, the index of dominance decreased from 0.85 in 1964 to 0.83 in 2009. Land use change drives landscape patterns of the development of the watershed toward diversity and a fragmented structure. Population growth, economic development, and industrial policies were the dominant driving forces behind LUCC in the Yanqi Basin. Sustainable use of land resources is a significant factor in maintaining economic development and environmental protection in this arid inland river basin.     

基于遥感和Markov模型的新疆生产建设兵团土地利用变化

通过对兵团土地利用空间格局变化分析,选择合适的土地利用政策保护生态环境。运用RS和GIS技术对兵团近10年土地利用/覆被变化及景观格局空间变化进行分析,并在此基础上运用Markov模型对未来30年土地利用变化进行预测。2000—2010年,新疆生产建设兵团景观多样性升高,连通性增强,形状愈来愈简单,景观格局整体变化不大;草地、灌丛、湿地、荒漠和冰川/永久积雪面积减少,耕地和城镇面积增加,森林保持稳定;人为干扰对土地利用结构的变化具有重要作用,土地利用强度受人为活动影响的同时受土地利用政策影响;在未来30年间耕地和城镇面积继续增加,除森林基本保持不变外其他土地利用类型均减小。兵团城镇用地与草地和耕地之间的矛盾逐渐显现,势必引起兵团生态格局的变化。因此,必须实行合适的土地利用政策保护环境。     

Trends in land use and land cover change in the protected and communal areas of the Zambezi Region,Namibia

Land management decisions have extensively modified land use and land cover in the Zambezi Region. These decisions are influenced by land tenure classifications, legislation, and livelihoods. Land use and land cover change is an important indicator for quantifying the effectiveness of different land management strategies. However, there has been no evidence on whether protected or communal land tenure is more affected by land use and land cover changes in southern Africa and particularly Namibia. Our study attempted to fill this gap by analyzing the relationship between land use and land cover change and land tenure regimes stratified according to protected and communal area in the Zambezi Region. Multi-temporal Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery were used to determine the temporal dynamics of land use and land cover change from 1984 to 2010. The landscape showed distinctive modifications over the study period; broad trends include the increase in forest land after 1991. However, changes were not uniform across the study areas. Two landscape development stages were deduced: (1) 1984–1991 represented high deforestation and gradual increase in shrub land; (2) 1991–2000 and 2000–2010 represented lower deforestation and slower agropastoral expansion. The results further show clear patterns of the dynamics, magnitude, and direction of land use and land cover change by tenure regime. The study concluded that land tenure has a direct impact on land use and land cover, since it may restrict some activities carried out on the land in the Zambezi Region.     

Using Resource Economics to Anticipate Forest Land Use Change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

Demands for forest, farm, and developed land are evolving in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. The demand for land in developed uses, as well as demands for various forest and farm products are changing in response to population growth, demographic shifts, and market forces. As demand factors change so do relative land values. Land area in future forest, farm, and developed uses may shift as landowners re-evaluate relative net benefits from land use alternatives. This study examines the effects of various land demand and supply factors on the determination of land use patterns in the mid-Atlantic region. Driving variables include costs and benefits from various uses, population density, and measures of land quality. Model parameters are estimated using a binomial logit procedure. Results from the study are used to estimate proportions of forest area on a county by county basis. Simulated forest landscapes under hypothetical future conditions are prepared and illustrated using geographic information system (GIS) techniques.     

Assessing Development Pressure in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: An Evaluation of Two Land-Use Change Models

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.     

A Zooplankton-N:P-Ratio Indicator for Lakes

We develop the conceptual and empirical basis for a multi-level ecosystem indicator for lakes. The ratio of total N to total P in lake water is influenced or regulated by a variety of ecosystem processes operating at several organizational levels and spatial scales: atmospheric, terrestrial watershed, lake water, and aquatic community. The character of the pelagic zooplankton assemblage is shown to be well correlated with lake water N:P ratio, with species assemblages arrayed along the N:P gradient in accordance with resource supply theory. Features of specific zooplankton assemblages or deviations from expected assemblages can provide information useful for lake managers, such as the efficiency of pollutant transfer and biomagnification of toxins, loss of cool-water refuge areas, degree of zooplanktivory and food web simplification related to changes in fisheries, and assemblage changes due to anthropogenic acidification. Evaluation of the influence of watershed land use, forest cover and vegetation type, atmospheric deposition, and basin hydrology on the supply of N and P to lake ecosystems provides a means to couple changes in the terrestrial environment to potential changes in aquatic ecosystems. Deviations of lake water N:P values from expected values based on analysis of watershed and lake basin characteristics, including values inferred from appropriate diatom microfossil deposits, can provide an independent validation and baseline reference for assessing the extent and type of disturbance. Therefore, the N:P ratio of lake water can serve as a potentially useful and inexpensively obtained proxy measure for assessing changes or shifts in the biological and nutrient status of lakes.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in Eastern Turkey: a case study in Gümüşhane

Recognition and understanding of landscape dynamics as a historical legacy of disturbances are necessary for sustainable management of forest ecosystems. This study analyzed spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover patterns in a typical mountain watershed in the Gumushane district along the Northeastern part of Turkey. The area is investigated by comparing LANDSAT images from 1987 to 2000 and evaluated the temporal changes of spatial structure of forest conditions through spatial analysis of forest cover type maps from 1971 and 1987 using GIS and FRAGSTATS™. The results show a general decreasing trend in area of natural land cover types including broadleaf and conifer forests as well as coppice between 1971 and 1987 (0.54%, respectively). In contrast, between 1987 and 2000 this natural land cover types show increasing trend (1.6%). In parallel with forest dynamics, the area of managed land including lowland and upland agricultural areas, rangelands and grasslands increased during the first period and decreased during second period. In terms of spatial configuration, Gümüşhane forests aren’t generally fragmented by intensive forest utilization in the latter periods. This is partially due to out-migration of rural population in Gümüşhane. Nevertheless, land use pattern significantly changed over time depending on a few factors such as unregulated management actions, social pressure and demographic movements. The study revealed that demographic movements have a major effect on landscape dynamics.     

Monitoring conservation effectiveness in a global biodiversity hotspot: the contribution of land cover change assessment

Tropical forests, which play critical roles in global biogeochemical cycles, radiation budgets and biodiversity, have undergone rapid changes in land cover in the last few decades. This study examines the complex process of land cover change in the biodiversity hotspot of Western Ghats, India, specifically investigating the effects of conservation measures within the Indira Gandhi Wildlife Sanctuary. Current vegetation patterns were mapped using an IRS P6 LISS III image and this was used together with Landsat MSS data from 1973 to map land cover transitions. Two major and divergent trends were observed. A dominant degradational trend can be attributed to agricultural expansion and infrastructure development while a successional trend, resulting from protection of the area, showed the resilience of the system after prolonged disturbances. The sanctuary appears susceptible to continuing disturbances under the current management regime but at lower rates than in surrounding unprotected areas. The study demonstrates that remotely sensed land cover assessments can have important contributions to monitoring land management strategies, understanding processes underpinning land use changes and helping to inform future conservation strategies.     

A national framework for monitoring and reporting on environmental sustainability in Canada

In 1991, a collaborative project to revise the terrestrial component of a national ecological framework was undertaken with a wide range of stakeholders. This spatial framework consists of multiple, nested levels of ecological generalization with linkages to existing federal and provincial scientific databases. The broadest level of generalization is the ecozone. Macroclimate, major vegetation types and subcontinental scale physiographic formations constitute the definitive components of these major ecosystems. Ecozones are subdivided into approximately 200 ecoregions which are based on properties like regional physiography, surficial geology, climate, vegetation, soil, water and fauna. The ecozone and ecoregion levels of the framework have been depicted on a national map coverage at 1:7 500 000 scale. Ecoregions have been subdivided into ecodistricts based primarily on landform, parent material, topography, soils, waterbodies and vegetation at a scale (1:2 000 000) useful for environmental resource management, monitoring and modelling activities. Nested within the ecodistricts are the polygons that make up the Soil Landscapes of Canada series of 1:1 000 000 scale soil maps. The framework is supported by an ARC-INFO GIS at Agriculture Canada. The data model allows linkage to associated databases on climate, land use and socio-economic attributes.     

Local versus landscape spatial influence on biodiversity: a case study across five European industrialized areas

Land use change—mostly habitat loss and fragmentation—has been recognized as one of the major drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide. According to the habitat amount hypothesis, these phenomena are mostly driven by the habitat area effect. As a result, species richness is a function of both the extent of suitable habitats and their availability in the surrounding landscape, irrespective of the dimension and isolation of patches of suitable habitat. In this context, we tested how the extent of natural areas, selected as proxies of suitable habitats for biodiversity, influences species richness in highly anthropogenic landscapes. We defined five circular sampling areas of 5 km radius, including both natural reserves and anthropogenic land uses, centred in five major industrial sites in France, Italy and Germany. We monitored different biodiversity indicators for both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, including breeding birds, diurnal butterflies, grassland vegetation, odonata, amphibians, aquatic plants and benthic diatoms. We studied the response of the different indicators to the extent of natural land uses in the sampling area (local effect) and in the surrounding landscape (landscape effect), identified as a peripheral ring encircling the sampling area. Results showed a positive response of five out of seven biodiversity indicators, with aquatic plants and odonata responding positively to the local effect, while birds, vegetation and diatoms showed a positive response to the landscape effect. Diatoms also showed a significant combined response to both effects. We conclude that surrounding landscapes act as important biodiversity sources, increasing the local biodiversity in highly anthropogenic contexts.     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity in the Arctic

The Canadian Arctic is characterized by a high variation in landform types and there are complex interactions between land, water and the atmosphere which dramatically affect the distribution of biota. Biodiversity depends upon the intensity, predictability and scale of these interactions. Observations, as well as predictions of large-scale climate models which include ocean circulation, reveal an anomalous cooling of northeastern Canada in recent decades, in contrast to the overall significant increase in average annual temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Predictions from models are necessary to forecast the change in the treeline in the 21st century which may lead to a major loss of tundra. The rate of change in vegetation in response to climate change is poorly understood. The treeline in central Canada, for example, is showing infilling with trees, and in some locations, northerly movement of the boundary. The presence of sea ice in Hudson Bay and other coastal areas is a major factor affecting interactions between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Loss of ice and therefore hunting of seals by polar bears will reduce bear and arctic fox populations within the region. In turn, this is likely to have significant effects on their herbivorous prey populations and forage plants. Further, the undersurface of sea ice is a major site for the growth of algae and marine invertebrates which in turn act as food for the marine food web. A rise in sea-level may flood coastal saltmarsh communities leading to changes in plant assemblages and a decline in foraging by geese and other consumers. The anomalous cooling in the eastern Arctic, primarily in late winter and early spring, has interrupted northern migration of breeding populations of geese and ducks and led to increased damage to vegetation in southern arctic saltmarshes as a result of foraging. It is likely that there has been a significant loss of invertebrates in those areas where the vegetation has been destroyed. Warming will have major effects on permafrost distribution and on ground-ice resulting in a major destabilization of slopes and slumping of soil, and disruption of tundra plant communities. Disruption of peat and moss surfaces lead to loss of insulation, an increase in active-layer depth and changes in drainage and plant assemblages. Increases of UV-B radiation will strongly affect vulnerable populations of both plants and animals. The indigenous peoples will face major changes in life style, edibility of food and health standards, if there is a significant warming trend. The great need is for information which is sensitive to the changes and will assist in developing an understanding of the complex interactions of the arctic biota, human populations and the physical environment.     

Sandy desertification change and its driving forces in western Jilin Province, North China

This paper investigates the sandy desertification change between 1986 and 2000 in the western Jilin province, North China. Land use and land cover data were obtained from Landsat TM data by using a supervised classification approach. We summarized the total area of desertified land by each county, as well as the area for each of the four categories of desertified land. The changes of different types of land use and land cover between 1986 and 2000 were calculated and analyzed. Taking Tongyu and Qianan as examples, both human and natural driving forces of the sandy desertification were analyzed. Our analyses indicate that the material sources and windy, warm and dry climate are the immanent causes of potential land desertification, while the irrational human activities, such as deforestation, reclaiming and grazing in the grassland, are the external causes of potential land desertification. However, rational human activities, such as planting trees and restoring grassland can reverse the land desertification process. Furthermore, the countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable development in ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in North China are put forward.     

Land use patterns and urbanization in the holy city of Varanasi, India: a scenario

Rapid urbanization and increasing land use changes due to population and economic growth in selected landscapes is being witnessed of late in India and other developing countries. The cities are expanding in all directions resulting in large-scale urban sprawl and changes in urban land use. The spatial pattern of such changes is clearly noticed on the urban fringes or city peripheral rural areas than in the city center. In fact, this is reflected in changing urban land use patterns. There is an urgent need to accurately describe land use changes for planning and sustainable management. In the recent times, remote sensing is gaining importance as vital tool in the analysis and integration of spatial data. This study intends to estimate land use pattern in a planned and unplanned urban setup and also to analyze the impact of change in land use pattern in the Varanasi urban environment. The results indicate that the planned urban setup had a higher tree cover to that of unplanned area in the Varanasi City, although a considerable disparity existed within the planned urban setups. The results emphasize the need to critically review concepts of urban planning and give more consideration to the preservation and management of urban tree cover/greenspace.     

Land Use Changes in Regional Economic Theory

Land use and land cover changes are a major source of environmental degradation and therefore a serious issue in sustainable development studies and in the integrated assessment of environmental problems. In an attempt to understand part of the complexity of land use change we here aim to explore the ways in which economists deals with the land use issue. We argue that space is one of the forgotten items in economics. Economists often seem to ignore high-resolution spatial dynamics either because they are not considered as an important feature of the problem or out of habit. It seems as though there is a trade-off between spatial resolution and human behaviour in current applications. Certain types of models are capable of capturing the spatial complexity of urban and regional areas, for instance, by using cellular automata. Other types of land use models clearly have shortcomings where it concerns spatial detail. Dynamic modelling approaches do not guarantee a high spatial resolution.We propose to give more attention to agent based modelling as this type of modelling provides a specific connection between processes on micro level and macro-level spatial structures.     

On the intensity and type transition of land use at the basin scale using RS/GIS: a case study of the Hanjiang River Basin

The purpose of this study is to investigate the land use intensity and land use change type at the basin scale in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin (in Hubei Province, China) by combining the Landsat TM images in 1995 and 2000 with the land use database (in scale 1:10,000) and relative data. In this study, the basic data is acquired from the interpretation of remote sensing (RS) images. The intensity of land use and the rate of change in double-directions of land use dynamics are calculated with the support of software ARC/INFO. The intensity of land use is indicated by the intensity coefficient of land use, and the transition of land use types is quantified as the rate of change in double-direction of land use types and also expressed as the transition matrix of land use types. The results are expressed in space by Geographic Information System (GIS) software. Results of this study show that (1) the intensity of land use is high in the study region, the intensity coefficients of land use in 1995 and 2000 are 260.025 and 290.526, respectively, and the intensity of development and utilization of land is trend to increscent; and (2) the rate of land use change in double directions in the whole study region is 0.52 with great spatial variation and the differentiation of land use types. In the differentiation of land use types, the unutilized land (with the rate to 4.391) is developed fast, the grassland (with 2.836) and water area (with 1.664) are disturbed severely, and these changes will influence the eco-environment in the Hanjiang River Basin and all the Yangtze Basin. The rates of the farmland and the woodland are 0.424 and 0.344, respectively, meaning that the fundamentals of regional human-environmental system are relative stable. With this study, we can conclude that (1) the patterns of land use are increasingly changing in the study region, the environmental impacts are escalated on this stage, and the further outcomes are destined to change the stability of the regional human–environmental system; and (2) the most useful method to study the present land use and its change is through the use of the RS/GIS with the land use database (in scale 1:10,000).     

Impact of urbanization on natural ecosystem service values: a comparative study

With rapid population growth and rural to-urban migration in many Chinese cities, a large amount of natural lands have been converted to urban and agricultural lands recently. During this process of land conversion, economic development and quality of life improvement are considered as major goals, and their influences on ecological systems have often been neglected. The degradation of natural ecological systems due to land use change, however, has become severe,and may require immediate attentions from urban planners and local governments. Taking HaDaQi industrial corridor, Heilongjiang Province, China,as a case study area, this paper examined the trend of land use changes during 1990–2005, and quantified their influences on natural eco system service values. In particular, this study applied two major valuation methods, and examined whether different valuation methods generate significantly different results. Analysis of results suggests that human dominated land uses (e.g., urban and agriculture)have expanded rapidly at the cost of natural lands (e.g., wetlands and forest). Due to these land use changes, the total ecosystem service value decreased 29% (2.26% annually) from 1990 to 2005 when the first method was applied, and this rate is estimated to be 15.7% (1.13% annually)with the second approach. Moreover, the annual rate of ecosystem service value decline during 2000–2005 is about four times higher than that in 1990–2000 with both methods, suggesting much more severe ecosystem degradation during 2000–2005.     

Mapping Patterns of Human Use and Potential Resource Conflicts on Public Lands

Focusing on a 2.2 million hectare area surrounding the Lolo National Forest in western Montana, USA, we illustrate a GIS method for predicting patterns of human use on public lands and highlighting potential for impacts on fish and wildlife species. Data inputs include human population count (derived from the 1990 Census), roads and trails, and the predicted distributions of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and 41 terrestrial vertebrates of special concern. Because results highlight areas where conflicts between humans and resources may occur, they are of potential use to land managers. This approach can be applied wherever data are available, and inputs can be varied according to the topics of interest.     

Changes of Land Use and of Ecosystem Service Values in Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

Agricultural activities, especially reclamation, are considered major threats to the wetland ecosystems in Sanjiang Plain, the largest concentrated area of the freshwater wetlands in China. In the past decades, the area of the cultivated land and its grain production have been increased at the cost of wetlands shrinkage. The large-scale land reclamation severely affected the ecosystems in this region. However, such effects at the regional scale are seldom evaluated quantitatively. We used three datasets of LANDSAT MSS and/or TM imagery to estimate the area changes and the transition of land use types from 1980 to 2000. We also valued changes in ecosystem services delivered by each land category using value coefficients published by Costanza et al. [Nature 387, 1997, 253–260]. Sensitivity analysis suggested that these estimates were relatively robust. Finally, the contribution of various ecosystem functions was ranked to the overall value of the ecosystem services in this study. According to our estimates, the total annual ecosystem service values in Sanjiang Plain have declined by about 40% between 1980 and 2000 ($156284–182572.18 million in total over 20 years). This substantial decline is largely attributed to the 53.4% loss of wetlands. For individual ecosystem functions, waste treatment, water supply and disturbance regulation account for more than 60% to the total ecological values. During those two decades, the contribution of disturbance regulation, cultural and recreation decreased, while the contribution of water regulation, nutrient cycling, food production, raw materials and climate regulation increased during the same period. We also put forward a few proposals concerning the future land use policy formulation and sustainable ecosystems. They are adjusting the ‘food first’ agricultural policy, establishing more nature reserves for wetlands, creating systems for the rational use of water, harnessing the degraded cultivated land and encouraging eco-tourism.