Tradable CO2 permits for cars and trucks

The accelerated diffusion of cleaner vehicles to reduce CO₂ emissions in transport can be explicitly integrated in emission trading designs by making use of cross-sectoral energy efficiency investment opportunities that are found in data on CO₂ emissions during the production and the use of cars and trucks. We therefore elaborate the introduction of tradable certificates that are allocated or grandfathered to manufacturers that provide vehicles (and other durable goods) that enable their customers to reduce their own CO₂ emissions. This certificate is an allowance for each tonne CO₂ avoided. Manufacturers can then sell these certificates on the emission market and use the revenues to lower the price of their cleanest vehicles. This mechanism should partially overcome the price difference with less efficient cars. In a simulation, we found that the introduction of the certificate in tradable permit systems can lead to very significant reductions of CO₂ emissions. The simulations indicate that CO₂ emissions resulting from the car fleet can be reduced by 25–38% over a period of 15 years (starting in 1999). For the truck fleet, the reduction potential is more limited but still very interesting.     

Oil price scenarios and climate policy: welfare effects of including transportation in the EU emissions trading system

The stringency of policies needed to meet a climate target is influenced by uncertain oil prices because price changes cause emission changes, making the robustness of climate policy instruments important. As a result of its dependence on oil, emissions from the transport sector are particularly sensitive to oil price changes. We use a computable general equilibrium model to study the effects of including the transport sector in the EU??s emissions trading scheme under three future oil price scenarios. Our results show that there are potentially significant welfare gains from including transportation in the emissions trading scheme because the system as a whole helps absorb required changes in climate policy to meet the overall EU cap on emissions. There is, however, a cost in terms of somewhat greater permit price uncertainty.     

试析交易成本下的排污权交易的最优化设计

在Stavins、Spulber以及Montero的研究的基础上,进一步分析交易成本的存在对于分阶段引入排污权交易的最优化设计的影响,并以此得到在存在交易成本的条件下,排污权交易市场的交易情况以及社会总效益因此所发生的变化。     

Allocation of GHG emissions in combined heat and power systems: a new proposal for considering inefficiencies of the system

The paper industry is responsible for a considerable amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly due to its intensive energy requirements. The production of heat and power streams in a cogeneration system, i.e., a combined heat and power (CHP) plant, releases considerable amounts of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. Such emissions are already subjected to legislation globally. The amount of GHG emissions is usually calculated from the product of the total amount of energy activity multiplied by an emission factor. However, each energy output stream should get a share of emissions responsibility. This fact could assist in assigning weights to the emissions generated for power and thermal purposes in a combined heat and power plant. However, developing a suitable method of allocating emissions in a cogeneration system is still a concern and a subject research for scientists, companies and policy makers. This paper exposes and evaluates different published allocation methods and applies them to a real case of a combined heat and power plant integrated in a paper mill and proposes a new allocation method.     

On the economic approach to the containment of land consumption

This paper highlights the potential contribution of economics to the formulation and implementation of land use policies that aim at a more sustainable use of land. It introduces the economic way of conceptualizing and understanding the problem of land consumption and discusses exemplary policy instruments based on this understanding: taxation of either land use or sealing and tradable development permit schemes. These examples are drawn from current land use policy debates in Germany but likewise apply to other countries and regions. The authors conclude that economic land use policy instruments can make a significant contribution to the containment of land consumption, i.e., to a more efficient use of already developed sites and to a denser development of new sites. However, the examples presented also clearly demonstrate that incentive-based approaches need a tight regulatory planning framework to produce positive environmental effects.     

Powering or de-powering future vehicles to reach low carbon outcomes: the long term view 1930–2020

Government in UK has long sought to influence both new vehicle fuel efficiency and to encourage domestic car production. Sixty years of data on the change in car characteristics and fuel economy are analysed. Vehicle specific power has doubled in that time and sales of vehicles have grown preferentially in larger engine classes. New cars sold over the period 1970–2000 have a sale price of £150 per bhp at year 2000 prices. A new theory is proposed that the primary driver for increased power of vehicles, and hence CO₂ production, is the increase in sale price necessitated by uneconomic production of steel vehicles in mature markets. The standard fuel test cycle shows inverse fuel efficiency relationship with weight and with vehicle power. Primary CO₂ reduction targets such as the Kyoto agreement are dimensioned as outputs of energy use per unit time (power); secondary targets such as the ACEA voluntary agreement of 140 g/km in 2008 based on energy per unit distance (efficiency). Failure to focus policy on the key variable of vehicle power has allowed power to continue to increase and inhibit fuel efficiency from meeting the voluntary agreement targets. This power ‘loophole’ in Europe is likened to the emergence of light trucks in response to CAFE standards in USA. New body materials offer the prospect of profitable car production, consumer satisfaction and large reductions in CO₂. New policy directions are proposed as a result of the failure of the ACEA voluntary agreement and the real importance of achieving annual CO₂ reduction including via Cars 21.     

基于STIRPAT模型的中国旅游业碳排放影响因素分析

采用"自下而上"的CO_2排放计算方法,对1995—2014年中国各区域旅游业CO_2排放量进行测算,从动态视角分析各区域旅游业CO_2排放总量及旅游接待人次、人均旅游收入、旅游业CO_2排放强度和旅游交通CO_2排放占比等影响因素的变化趋势特征,并基于STIRPAT模型对旅游业CO_2排放的主要影响因素进行定量分析.结果显示:各区域旅游业CO_2排放总量均呈逐年上升的趋势,且不同区域各影响因素的作用存在显著差异;其中,人均旅游收入对中国旅游业碳减排压力的弹性变化区间最小,仅从0.156变化到0.287,旅游交通CO_2排放占比的弹性变化区间最大,其CO_2排放占比每提高1%,东部地区旅游业CO_2排放总量将提高0.239%,而中部地区仅提高0.013%;旅游业CO_2排放强度是抑制碳排放的关键因素;研究期内,分析结果不支持倒"U"型环境Kuznets曲线的观点.最后,根据上述结论提出差异化的区域碳减排调控对策.     

推广新能源汽车碳减排和大气污染控制的协同效益研究——以上海市为例

随着我国机动车数量的持续增长,交通运输行业已经成为仅次于工业部门的第二大能源消费部门,也是温室气体排放和空气污染物的主要贡献部门.为了支持低碳发展,自2009年起,中国便开始使用新能源汽车取代传统燃油汽车.通过上海市2016年纯电动和插电式混合动力的私家车、出租车和公交车的行驶情况、能源消耗和排放因子等数据,对新能源汽车运行过程以及所需电能生产过程中产生的大气污染物和CO₂的排放量进行了测算,利用协同控制坐标系评价和污染物减排量交叉弹性分析方法探讨了新能源汽车的协同减排能力与效果.基于协同效益潜力分析结果,对推广3类新能源汽车的协同效益进行了排序,结果表明纯电动公交车具有最佳的碳减排和大气污染控制协同效益,纯电动以及插电式混合动力私家车和出租车对CO、NO_x、NMHC、PM₁₀都具有协同效益,而插电式混合动力公交车不具备协同效益.     

减排温室气体的经济手段：许可证交易和税收政策

温室气体的减排是当前国际社会关心的热点环境问题。本文首先从分析采用经济手段减排温室气体的潜在利弊出发，对温室气体排放交易和国际碳税进行了深入的分析比较。最后，提出了我国响应减排温室气体经济政策的若干建议。     

政府-企业-居民协同共治的道路交通碳交易机制

根据道路交通碳排放的影响机理,提出同时把上游燃料供应企业、中游汽车生产企业、下游汽车使用者同时作为道路交通碳交易的责任主体,设计了政府-企业-居民协同共治的道路交通碳交易机制,包括碳配额总量设定、初始碳配额分配、行业基准设定、履约考核、市场交易以及监测报告核查等制度.通过案例与情景分析揭示了道路交通碳交易的多主体协同作用机理：在政府对于碳配额总量和行业基准的调控下,燃料供应企业将通过改变燃料成分来降低燃料排放因子;汽车生产企业将通过提高汽车燃油经济性和新能源汽车比例来降低汽车能耗强度;汽车使用者将通过减少车辆行驶里程降低交通需求或者购买使用新能源汽车.本文所提出的政府-企业-居民协同共治的道路交通碳交易机制,可以分别从上游、中游、下游促进道路交通碳排放的3个关键影响因素——燃料排放因子、汽车能耗强度、交通活动需求协同优化,能够有效控制道路交通温室气体排放增长,进而加速“碳达峰”的实现和“碳中和”的转型.     

基于动态CGE的挥发性有机污染物VOCs排放预测和控制研究

从成本效益角度,通过宏观经济手段来控制挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)的研究将对我国改善大气环境有十分积极的作用.在先前研究的基础上,将静态CGE动态化,以2007年为基准年,预测了我国挥发性有机物在当前政策下到2020年的排放量.模拟对排放量高的部分工业部门征收环境税,探讨了其对排放量以及经济系统的影响,为我国挥发性有机物的控制对策提出了建议.结果表明,通过征收税收,可以实现减排VOCs的目的,但经济成本也较大.由于部门经济关联关系,虽未对交通运输业征收VOCs环境税,其影响也较大.因此,在采用宏观经济政策控制VOCs时,需要做好相应的补贴措施.     

A little REDD model to quickly compare possible baseline and policy scenarios for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation

A simple model allows rapid comparison of typical baseline and policy scenarios which might be considered under international programs to avoid CO₂ emissions caused by forest clearing, such as REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation). These tests of REDD policy scenarios can also include CO₂ stored in forest products. The value of avoided emissions can also be determined if expected carbon prices, constant or varying, are included. The paper discusses simple illustrative example comparisons as well as possible feedback effects within larger scale setting of CO₂ offset availability, CO₂ price and emissions reductions.     

Reconciling Emissions Trading with a Technology-Based Response to Potential Abrupt Climate Change

It has been shown that preparedness to respond effectively to imminent abrupt climate change, getting CO₂ levels down towards pre-industrial in a few decades, involves the promotion of specific technology types that can be the basis for a negative emissions energy system (Read and Lermit 2003/5). In particular, Bio-Energy technologies linked to technologies for CO₂ Capture and Storage (BECS) or to other carbon disposal technologies, if done on a sufficiently large scale, can achieve this result given a context of policy urgency that also yields advances in energy efficiency and the take up of ambient energy technologies (wind, solar, etc.) in line with low emissions energy scenarios (e.g. the fossil free energy scenario developed by the Tellus Institute for Greenpeace International (Lazarus et al. 1993). It has also been shown (Read 1999, 2000, 2000a) that, if account is taken of inter-temporal beneficial learning externalities, it is efficient to reward innovation in policy-desirable technology types (e.g. through project-based schemes that embody such technology types) by a greater amount than the penalty on emissions. Such dynamic efficiency can be achieved through establishing a secondary market for project based credits exchanged for a number of emissions permits M(t) (M > 1 for t < H, the time horizon for policy) and with the variation of M(t) over time corresponding to the dynamically efficient path. This results in the incentive for project based emissions reductions being M(t) times greater than the penalty on emissions. By making use of the initial allocation of permits in each time period, an aspect of emissions permit trading that has no efficiency function under either auctioning or ‘grand-fathering’, this arrangement enables project based credits to be administered flexibly whilst ensuring the integrity of the emissions cap. The purpose of this article is to link these two bodies of work to show how a dynamically efficient response to the threat of abrupt climate change can be implemented in a way that is compatible with the response to gradual climate change that has been negotiated in the Kyoto Protocol. The design of such a dynamically efficient mechanism is considered, having as its objective the promotion of the two technology types mentioned above. A particular institutional model for implementing such a mechanism is described that mimics managerial behaviour in the adoption of new technology, avoids the additionality requirement that burdens the operation of the CDM in its current form, and aims to achieve ‘industry friendliness’ as a necessary condition of effective implementation.     

Integrated assessment of promising measures to decrease nitrogen losses from agriculture in EU-27

Following the recognition of the detrimental effects of nitrogen (N) losses from agriculture in the European Union (EU) on human health and environment, series of environmental policy measures have been implemented from the early 1990s onwards. However, these measures have only been partially successful. Clearly, there is lack of integration of available measures and there is lack of enforcement and hierarchy; which measures should be implemented first? We identified and assessed three ‘most promising measures’ to decrease N losses from agriculture, i.e., (i) balanced fertilization, (ii) low-protein animal feeding, and (iii) ammonia (NH₃) emissions abatement measures. Environmental-economic assessments were made using scenario analyses and the modeling tools MITERRA-EUROPE and CAPRI.In the baseline scenario (business as usual), N use efficiency (NUE) in crop production increases from 44% in 2000 to 48% in 2020, while total N losses decrease by 10%. Implementation of promising measures increases NUE further to 51–55%, and decreases NH₃ emissions (by up to 23%), nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions (by up to 10%) and N leaching losses (by up to 35%). Differences in responsiveness to promising measures varied between and within Member States. Strict implementation of balanced fertilization in nitrate vulnerable zones, as defined in the Nitrates Directive, decreases total farmers’ income in EU-27 by 1.7 billion euros per year. Implementation of all three measures decreases farmers income by 10.8 and total welfare by 17 billion euros per year, without valuing the environmental benefits.The study presented here is one of the first EU-wide integrated assessments of the effects of policy measures on all major N losses from agriculture and their economic costs. Our results show that the most promising measures are effective in enhancing NUE and decreasing NH₃ and N₂O emissions to the atmosphere and N leaching to groundwater and surface waters, but that income effects are significant. The order of implementation of the measures is important; NH₃ emissions abatement measures must be implemented together with balanced N fertilization.     

论排污权交易在中国的可行性

着重分析排污权交易理论上的可行性和在中国应值得注意的问题．虽然排污权交易可以节省费用，加速达标、刺激技术革新，并促进公平与效益的统一，但现行法规的束缚、市场条件的制约以及初始分配的权衡等要求在实践中应谨慎实施．     

The evolution of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions in international trade for major economies: a perspective from the global supply chain

Employing global multi-regional input–output models, this paper revisits the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission trade (including exports and imports) and assesses their positions in the national emissions of 14 major countries with large national emissions or large emission trades during 1995–2009. It especially explores the evolution of the emission trades of these countries from both continuous time series and comparative perspectives, in order to provide an explanation for CO₂ emission spillovers across countries. The main findings obtained were as follows: (1) China was the largest CO₂ exporter to other countries, accounting for over 20 % of global exports since 2005; the CO₂ exports of the United States of America (USA), Germany, and Japan varied slightly over this time period, but overall, their proportions had decreased. (2) The CO₂ imports of the USA were the largest, occupying around 20 % of the global CO₂ imports; meanwhile, China’s CO₂ imports increased rapidly and ranked the second largest. (3) For Chinese Taiwan, its proportion of CO₂ exports in production-based emissions ranked the highest while that of the USA ranked the lowest; highly CO₂ import-dependent countries with an over 40 % proportion of CO₂ imports in its consumption-based emissions included France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, while China, India, and Russia remained the lowest, distinguished from their physical energy imports. These results suggested that the global policy makers should take the CO₂ emissions in trade into consideration when carefully accounting for national emissions inventories.     

基于多源数据融合的河南省建材行业排放清单

建材行业是典型的资源和能源消耗型产业,也是大气污染的主要排放源之一.中国作为全球最大的建材产品生产国和消费国,目前针对建材行业排放特征的研究总体较少,数据来源较为单一.以河南省建材行业为研究对象,首次将应急减排清单应用到排放清单构建中,通过对应急减排清单、排污许可和环境统计等多源数据的融合研究,完善和细化了建材行业活动水平数据,建立了更为精准的河南省建材行业排放清单.结果表明,2020年河南省建材行业的SO₂、 NO_x、一次PM_2.5和PM₁₀的排放量分别为21 788、 51 427、 10 107和14 471 t.其中,水泥和砖瓦是河南省建材行业大气污染物排放占比最高的2个行业,合计超过50%,水泥行业NO_x排放问题较为突出,砖瓦行业整体治理水平比较落后.豫中和豫北是河南省建材行业排放贡献最高的地区,合计超过全省的60%.建议加快推进水泥行业超低排放改造,针对砖瓦等行业完善地方排放标准,持续提升建材行业大气污染治理水平.     

Carbon tax,emission trading,or the mixed policy: which is the most effective strategy for climate change mitigation in China?

China, as the world’s largest emitter, intends to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early to mitigate global change. Under this strategy, a dynamic, recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the economy, energy, and environment impact of CO₂ emission reduction policy based on 17 scenarios in China: carbon tax, emission trading scheme (ETS), and the mixed policy in different price level, in order to find out which kind of emission reduction strategy is more feasible. The results show that CO₂ emission in 2030 will be reduced with the implementation of tax, ETS and mixed policy, by 10–13 %, 12–14 %, and 18–28 %, respectively. From 2016 to 2030, China can reduce 18,338–24,156 Mt CO₂ through the implementation of mixed policy. Furthermore, relative to single policy, mixed policy has stronger effects on primary energy consumption cut, by 738–1124 Mtoe or 18–28 %, which will make CO₂ emissions reach a peak before 2030 and the peak emission is not greater than 12 billion tons which is in line with the reduction demand in China. Thus, the mixed policy is the most effective strategy so that mixed policy is recommended to parties included in Annex I in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol and other countries with large potential of emission reduction, while ETS is suggested to countries with low carbon emissions per capita which can balance economic development and CO₂ mitigation.     

Endogenous market structures in non-cooperative international emissions trading

The literature on cost-effective international emissions trading (IET) assumes exogenous market structures. This paper develops a game-theoretical model along with numerical simulations for the world economy in order to analyze the equilibrium market structures of an IET scheme. Countries’ decisions regarding the exercise of market power and their initial permit endowments are made non-cooperatively, being guided by their national self-interest. The theoretical results show that both price-influencing and price-taking countries choose an optimal permit endowment in light of their damage costs. Low-damage (high-damage) countries choose more emission permits and act as permit sellers (buyers). The numerical results further suggest that an imperfectly competitive IET market with all price-influencing countries being permit buyers (sellers) has lower (higher) emissions than a perfectly competitive IET market. Finally, the IET scheme has an equilibrium market structure of imperfect competition where the high-damage European Union acts as a unique price maker. This equilibrium imperfectly competitive IET has the lowest global emissions.     

北京市交通扬尘PM2.5排放清单及空间分布特征

为建立一种自下而上的交通扬尘PM_2.5排放清单方法,对北京市不同区域、不同类型道路的路面积尘负荷进行了采样和实验室分析,对各类路网的道路车流量和车辆类型进行了调查和统计,建立了北京市道路交通扬尘PM_2.5排放清单,并对其空间分布进行了分析. 结果表明:北京市城区快速路、主干道、次干道、支路和胡同的交通扬尘PM_2.5排放因子分别为(0.05±0.03)(0.09±0.05)(0.11±0.05)(0.16±0.14)和(0.27±0.20)g/(km·辆),相应各类型道路的交通扬尘PM_2.5排放强度分别为(7.21±4.66)(5.27±3.03)(3.34±1.49)(2.84±2.49)和(0.54±0.40)kg/(km·d);郊区高速路、国道、省道、县道、乡道和城市道路的交通扬尘PM_2.5排放因子分别为(0.10±0.03)(0.50±0.33)(0.39±0.37)(0.41±0.41)和(0.65±0.31)(0.19±0.08)g/(km·辆),各类型道路交通扬尘的PM_2.5排放强度分别为(3.82±1.31)(10.00±6.58)(3.93±3.74)(1.64±1.63)(0.65±0.31)和(0.74±0.32)kg/(km·d). 北京市道路交通扬尘PM_2.5的年排放量为13 565 t,从空间分布上看,郊区交通扬尘PM_2.5年排放量、单位道路长度排放量以及排放因子均高于市区,而城区单位行政区面积的交通扬尘PM_2.5排放量高于远郊区县. 从交通扬尘PM_2.5排放的空间分布特征看,在继续加强城区交通扬尘控制的同时,应采取措施控制远郊区县公路的扬尘排放. 自下而上的交通扬尘PM_2.5排放清单提高了排放的时空分辨率,能够识别路网中高排放的区域和路段,为交通扬尘总量管理和减排目标考核提供了一种技术手段.