洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Mainstreaming human and large carnivore coexistence through institutional collaboration

Achieving coexistence between large carnivores and humans in human-dominated landscapes (HDLs) is a key challenge for societies globally. This challenge cannot be adequately met with the current sectoral approaches to HDL governance and an academic community largely dominated by disciplinary sectors. Academia (universities and other research institutions and organizations) should take a more active role in embracing societal challenges around conservation of large carnivores in HDLs by facilitating cross-sectoral cooperation to mainstream coexistence of humans and large carnivores. Drawing on lessons from populated regions of Europe, Asia, and South America with substantial densities of large carnivores, we suggest academia should better embrace the principles and methods of sustainability sciences and create institutional spaces for the implementation of transdisciplinary curricula and projects; reflect on research approaches (i.e., disciplinary, interdisciplinary, or transdisciplinary) they apply and how their outcomes could aid leveraging institutional transformations for mainstreaming; and engage with various institutions and stakeholder groups to create novel institutional structures that can respond to multiple challenges of HDL management and human–large carnivore coexistence. Success in mainstreaming this coexistence in HDL will rest on the ability to think and act cooperatively. Such a conservation achievement, if realized, stands to have far-reaching benefits for people and biodiversity.     

Fishing‐gear restrictions and biomass gains for coral reef fishes in marine protected areas

Considerable empirical evidence supports recovery of reef fish populations with fishery closures. In countries where full exclusion of people from fishing may be perceived as inequitable, fishing‐gear restrictions on nonselective and destructive gears may offer socially relevant management alternatives to build recovery of fish biomass. Even so, few researchers have statistically compared the responses of tropical reef fisheries to alternative management strategies. We tested for the effects of fishery closures and fishing gear restrictions on tropical reef fish biomass at the community and family level. We conducted 1,396 underwater surveys at 617 unique sites across a spatial hierarchy within 22 global marine ecoregions that represented 5 realms. We compared total biomass across local fish assemblages and among 20 families of reef fishes inside marine protected areas (MPAs) with different fishing restrictions: no‐take, hook‐and‐line fishing only, several fishing gears allowed, and sites open to all fishing gears. We included a further category representing remote sites, where fishing pressure is low. As expected, full fishery closures, (i.e., no‐take zones) most benefited community‐ and family‐level fish biomass in comparison with restrictions on fishing gears and openly fished sites. Although biomass responses to fishery closures were highly variable across families, some fishery targets (e.g., Carcharhinidae and Lutjanidae) responded positively to multiple restrictions on fishing gears (i.e., where gears other than hook and line were not permitted). Remoteness also positively affected the response of community‐level fish biomass and many fish families. Our findings provide strong support for the role of fishing restrictions in building recovery of fish biomass and indicate important interactions among fishing‐gear types that affect biomass of a diverse set of reef fish families.     

Fast,cheap, and imperfect? US public opinion about solar geoengineering

ABSTRACT

Solar geoengineering, which seeks to cool the planet by reflecting a small fraction of sunlight back into space, has drawn the attention of scientists and policymakers as climate change remains unabated. Unlike mitigation, solar geoengineering could quickly and cheaply lower global temperatures. It is also imperfect. Its environmental impacts remain unpredictable, and its low cost and immediate effects may result in ‘moral hazard,’ potentially crowding out costly mitigation efforts. There is little understanding about how the public will respond to such tradeoffs. To address this, a 1000-subject nationally representative poll focused on solar geoengineering was conducted as part of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) of the US electorate in October–November 2016. The importance that individuals place on solar geoengineering’s speed and cost predicts their support for it, but there is little to no relationship between their concerns about its shortcomings and support for its research and use. Acquiescence bias appears to be an important factor for attitudes around solar geoengineering and moral hazard.     

Analytical mapping of research on disaster management,types and role of ICT during 2011–2018

Catastrophic disasters like earthquake and flood cause widespread destruction and financial devastation. This has brought disaster management into limelight making it a burgeoning academic research field. The remarkable rise of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has instigated the scientific world to incorporate these technologies in disaster management. This study presents scientometric analysis to identify the status quo of research on the management of various disasters and role of ICT in it. This paper uses bibliographic data retrieved from Scopus for the observation period from 2011 to 2018. We provide extensive insights into growth of publications, citation pattern and their connectedness with other subject disciplines. Furthermore, we identify most productive and influential countries, institutes and journals. Our study analyses co-occurrence of keywords using Visualization of Similarities (VOS) Viewer. This structured overview will enhance the understanding of this field leading to more focussed and purposeful research.     

工作场所职业工效相关因素及其管理初探

为了探讨工作场所职业工效管理的基本策略和方法，在概述职业工效相关因素类别、相互关联及评价方法等基础上，提出基于职业病危害防治要求、风险管理理念和管理体系建设模式的职业工效不良因素干预管理的初步策略及实施要点。研究结果表明:工作场所职业工效相关因素包括个体特征、工艺设备及其布局、工作系统设计、作业环境、作业管理和社会心理因素等，不同因素间存在直接或间接的相互影响，并最终影响到微观层面劳动者职业活动的工效特点及宏观层面工作场所整体的职业工效特征；实施有效的职业工效管理，在于科学辨识、评估不良职业工效因素的基础上，进一步在职业病危害预防控制的不同阶段采取合理可行的管理方法进行干预，并持续改进。     

基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

Community-Based Integrated Watershed Management

1 INTRODUCTIONIn the past, natural resources management initiatives havefocused on large but specific sector projects such as dams,reservoirs for water supply schemes, irrigation systems,crop production, at forestation, etc. Often these projectswere treated as technical and administrative issues ratherthan as a socio-economic and political one. However, thehigh social and environmental cost of such schemes haveled to a change of paradigm since the 1980s towards small-scale community projec…     

Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.