不同类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律研究

为探究各类型压力对飞行员安全绩效的影响规律，为飞行员日常工作管理提供依据，选取某航空公司200名飞行员进行压力测试，并调取其近6 a的飞机品质(QAR)数据，通过相关性分析和线性回归分析将飞行员压力数据与其QAR数据进行对比分析，探究飞行员压力对飞行安全绩效的影响规律。研究结果表明:工作负荷压力、家庭压力、人际关系压力和组织管理压力会显著负向影响飞行员安全绩效；角色压力和专业发展压力会显著正向影响飞行员安全绩效。     

非柔性连接石化储罐配管温差应力分析与对策

储罐配管在温差作用下产生热位移会导致管壁产生热应力，未采用柔性连接的配管由于热应力集中作用可能发生破漏。针对与石油化工储罐非柔性连接的配管的安全问题，应用ANSYS有限元分析软件模拟计算石化企业典型配管的热应力分布；根据不同类型配管的分析结果，提出了工程技术与管理方面的针对性安全措施。研究结果表明:温差效应对石化储罐配管热应力影响显著，随内外温差的增加，配管应力集中的区域增大，最大热应力值增大；补偿措施能够改善配管的柔性，降低配管应力；约束载荷限制配管热膨胀从而增大配管应力；三通管是多根配管接合的区域，这种复杂管道交汇处会形成明显应力集中。研究结果对于提高石油化工非柔性连接配管安全性有一定的指导意义。     

模糊综合评价法在钢铁企业安全投资合理性评价中的应用

为了对钢铁企业安全投资进行模糊综合评价,建立了钢铁企业安全投资的评价体系,确定各因素的权重。得出模糊综合评价矩阵,可对各因素进行评价分析;得出某钢铁企业安全投资现状分数为83.9分,等级为较好,需着重加强安全培训、劳保品、工业卫生等人因素方面的投资;在环境方面的投资较合理。     

我国辐射环境监测法规体系研究

通过对我国辐射环境监测相关法规的调研,在深入分析当前辐射环境监测法规框架结构和突出问题的基础上,构建我国辐射环境监测法规体系,重点关注辐射环境质量监测、核与辐射监督性监测及应急监测等方面的工作需求,提出完善部门规章、健全核安全导则及规范性文件的建议。     

PLS-based EWMA fault detection strategy for process monitoring

Fault detection (FD) and diagnosis in industrial processes is essential to ensure process safety and maintain product quality. Partial least squares (PLS) has been used successfully in process monitoring because it can effectively deal with highly correlated process variables. However, the conventional PLS-based detection metrics, such as the Hotelling's T² and the Q statistics are ill suited to detect small faults because they only use information from the most recent observations. Other univariate statistical monitoring methods, such as the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control scheme, has shown better abilities to detect small faults. However, EWMA can only be used to monitor single variables. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to combine the advantages of the univariate EWMA and PLS methods to enhance their performances and widen their applicability in practice. The performance of the proposed PLS-based EWMA FD method was compared with that of the conventional PLS FD method through two simulated examples, one using synthetic data and the other using simulated distillation column data. The simulation results clearly show the effectiveness of the proposed method over the conventional PLS, especially in the presence of faults with small magnitudes.     

Research on flow assurance of deepwater submarine natural gas pipelines: Hydrate prediction and prevention

The formation of hydrate will lead to serious flow assurance problems in deepwater submarine natural gas transmission pipelines. However, the accurate evaluation model of the hydrate blocking risk for submarine natural gas transportation is still lacking. In this work, a novel model is established for evaluating the hydrate risk in deepwater submarine gas pipelines. Based on hydrate growth-deposition mechanism, the mathematical model mainly consists of mass, momentum and energy conservation equations. Meantime, the model results are obtained by finite difference method and iterative technique. Finally, the model has been applied in the production of deepwater gas field (L Gas Field) in China, and the sensitivity analysis of relevant parameters has been carried out. The results show that: (a). The mathematical model can well predict the hydrate blockage risk in deepwater natural gas pipelines after verification. (b). Hydrate is easily formed at the intersection of horizontal pipeline and vertical riser, and the maximum blocking position often occurs in middle of the riser. (c). The hydrate blockage degree and length of hydrate formation region (HFR) decrease with the increase of gas transport rate. (d). The hydrate blockage degree and length of HFR decrease with the increase of gas transport temperature. (e). The hydrate blockage degree and length of HFR increase with the extension of horizontal pipeline. (f). Injecting inhibitors can effectively inhibit hydrate formation and blockage, but the improvement of transmission measures can significantly reduce the dosage of inhibitor. It is concluded that measures such as increasing gas transportation rate and temperature, shortening horizontal pipeline length, optimizing inhibitor injection point and injection rate can play a safe, economic and efficient role in hydrate preventing and controlling.     

A new leak location method based on leakage acoustic waves for oil and gas pipelines

In order to study a new leak detection and location method for oil and natural gas pipelines based on acoustic waves, the propagation model is established and modified. Firstly, the propagation law in theory is obtained by analyzing the damping impact factors which cause the attenuation. Then, the dominant-energy frequency bands of leakage acoustic waves are obtained through experiments by wavelet transform analysis. Thirdly, the actual propagation model is modified by the correction factor based on the dominant-energy frequency bands. Then a new leak detection and location method is proposed based on the propagation law which is validated by the experiments for oil pipelines. Finally, the conclusions and the method are applied to the gas pipelines in experiments. The results indicate: the modified propagation model can be established by the experimental method; the new leak location method is effective and can be applied to both oil and gas pipelines and it has advantages over the traditional location method based on the velocity and the time difference. Conclusions can be drawn that the new leak detection and location method can effectively and accurately detect and locate the leakages in oil and natural gas pipelines.     

利用卫星遥感数据估算PM2.5浓度的应用研究进展

近年来,PM_(2.5)已成为中国大气污染的首要污染物,危害人体健康。为弥补地基监测站点在空间分布上的局限性,借助卫星遥感技术估算PM_(2.5)浓度已成为研究热点。文章总结了利用卫星估算PM_(2.5)浓度的各种研究方法,探讨了不同方法的优势和不足,指出不同方法对不同应用目的的选择性差异较大。提出,应针对不同应用目的选择相应的方法,从而取得满足各方面需求的研究成果,为未来PM_(2.5)浓度估算应用工作提供参考。     

Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Difference in the net value of ecological services between natural and artificial forests in China

Land degradation is a global problem that seriously threatens human society. However, in China and elsewhere, ecological restoration still largely relies on a traditional approach that focuses only on ecological factors and ignores socioeconomic factors. To improve the effectiveness of ecological restoration and maximize its economic and ecological benefits, a more efficient approach is needed that provides support for policy development and land management and thereby promotes environmental conservation. We devised a framework for assessing the value of ecosystem services that remain after subtracting costs, such as the opportunity costs, costs of forest protection, and costs for the people who are affected by the program; that is, the net value of ecosystem services (NVES). To understand the difference between the value of a resource and the net value of the ecosystem service it provides, we used data on VES, timber sales, and afforestation costs from China's massive national afforestation programs to calculate the net value of forest ecosystem services in China. Accounting for the abovementioned costs revealed an NVES of ¥6.1 × 10¹² for forests in 2014, which was 35.9% less than the value calculated without accounting for costs. As a result, the NVES associated with afforestation was 55.9% less than the NVES of natural forests. In some regions, NVES was negative because of the huge costs of human-made plantations, high evapotranspiration rates (thus, high water opportunity costs), and low forest survival rates. To maximize the ecological benefits of conservation, it is necessary to account for as many costs as possible so that management decisions can be based on NVES, thereby helping managers choose projects that maximize both economic and ecological benefits.