Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture–recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture–recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size. In a simulation, we used the population size and capture and recapture probability estimates obtained from the field studies to identify the minimum number of sampling occasions needed to obtain unbiased and robust estimates of population size. Based on these results we optimized the capture–recapture design, implemented it in 2 additional studies, and compared their precision with those of the nonoptimized studies. Additionally, we simulated scenarios based on thresholds of population size in criteria C and D of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List to investigate whether estimates of population size for elusive species can reliably inform red-list assessments. Identifying parameters that affect capture and recapture probabilities (for the grasshopper time since emergence of first adults) and optimizing field protocols based on this information reduced study effort (−6% to −27% sampling occasions) and provided more precise estimates of population size (reduced coefficient of variation) compared with nonoptimized studies. Estimates of population size from the scenarios based on the IUCN thresholds were mostly unbiased and robust (only the combination of very small populations and little study effort produced unreliable estimates), suggesting capture–recapture can be considered reliable for informing red-list assessments. Although capture–recapture remains difficult and costly for elusive species, our optimization procedure can help determine efficient protocols to increase data quality and minimize monitoring effort. 相似文献
Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and willow ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are Arctic birds with a circumpolar distribution but there is limited knowledge about their status and trends across their circumpolar distribution. Here, we compiled information from 90 ptarmigan study sites from 7 Arctic countries, where almost half of the sites are still monitored. Rock ptarmigan showed an overall negative trend on Iceland and Greenland, while Svalbard and Newfoundland had positive trends, and no significant trends in Alaska. For willow ptarmigan, there was a negative trend in mid-Sweden and eastern Russia, while northern Fennoscandia, North America and Newfoundland had no significant trends. Both species displayed some periods with population cycles (short 3–6 years and long 9–12 years), but cyclicity changed through time for both species. We propose that simple, cost-efficient systematic surveys that capture the main feature of ptarmigan population dynamics can form the basis for citizen science efforts in order to fill knowledge gaps for the many regions that lack systematic ptarmigan monitoring programs.
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San Vicente Bay is a coastal shallow embayment in Central Chile with multiple uses, one of which is receiving wastewater from
industrial fisheries, steel mill effluents, and domestic sewage. A simulation model was developed and applied to dissolved
oxygen consumption by organic residues released into this embayment. Three compartments were established as function of: depth,
circulation and outfall location. The model compartments had different volumes, and their oxygen saturation value was used
as baseline. The parameters: (a) BOD5 of the industrial and urban effluents, (b) oxygen demand by organic sediments, (c) respiration, (d) photosynthesis and (e)
re-aeration were included in the model. Iteration results of the model showed severe alterations in Compartment 1, with a
decrease of 65% in the oxygen below saturation. Compartment 2 showed a small decline (10%) and compartment 3 did not show
apparent changes in oxygen values. Measures recommended for remediation were to decrease the BOD5 loading by 30% in the affected sector. Iteration of the model for 200 h following recommendations derived from the preceding
results produced an increase in saturation of 60% (5 ml O2 L−1), which suggested an improvement of the environmental conditions. 相似文献